Rumour GFC 2021 Player Trading, Drafting FA, Rumours and Wish lists... Part II

[Jimmy Yamazaki]

I think we picked the players we did in order to try and replicate Melbourne's mids. Oliver, Viney Petracca, Sparrow are those contested beasts that love physical stuff and have a bit of burst.

 

[Turbocat]

I think we picked the players we did in order to try and replicate Melbourne's mids. Oliver, Viney Petracca, Sparrow are those contested beasts that love physical stuff and have a bit of burst.

I guess we did get an Oliver..

 

[rocker_oz33]

We got in lay- man's terms

2 x wookie rucks .
2x ruck forward- Def.

About 6 wookie Mids.

Surley we get at least one good ruck ..
3 times good mids ..


Maybe one back up ruck .


Me thinks..

 

[St Francis of Kardinia]

What happened with Schlensog? Is there still an avenue to get him or is that the whole thing done and dusted??

Surprising given the talk of multiple clubs being into him? Makes me feel there might have been an off field slip up


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Larry Donohue]

Why didn't we use our 2nd rookie pick for Schlensog, Rayson or Morrison
Putting a lot of faith in SDK and Kolo to hold the fort as talls

 

[Shadow89]

Why didn't we use our 2nd rookie pick for Schlensog, Rayson or Morrison
Putting a lot of faith in SDK and Kolo to hold the fort as talls

Reckon we will get Schlensog or Morrison - but we'll use the summer to decide who we want more/who jells better

 

[Shadow89]

***WARNING ⚠ THIS IS GONNA BE LONG***

After careful consideration, I thought a bit more about things this morning regarding our draft strategy, and I think on re-analysis - I understand now why we did what we did.

When I think about who we've drafted in recent years and who's left, there's been an ultra consistent pattern - they've been decently rated, the majority have been in the Top 40 picked, and they haven't been able to get a game, so they've left for more opportunity.

Since 2016, we've had all of:

Clark
Kreuger
Fogarty
Vardy
Constable
Lang
McCarthy
Thurlow
Cockatoo
Kersten
Smedts
GHS

all leave for greater opportunities/new opportunities after injury/form loss (26 or under when they left).

We've also had all of:

Kennerley
Taheny
Jarvis
Tarca
J. Jones (got picked up by the Eagles)
Schlensog
Brownless
Hayball
Gardener (got picked up by the Dogs)

be delisted without playing 10 games between all of them (JJ played 7 and Jarvis played 1).

From our 2019 draft, Evans, Stephens, and SDK have played 4 games between them. Close has been the one who has been given the most opportunity and also shown the most.

From our 2020 draft, Holmes was given some exposure, but others like Stevens have not got a look in yet.

Now this is not to say that any of this strategy has been wrong - it largely hasn't. When I think of those who have been given a decent opportunity and who still remain on our list from 2016 onwards, there's quite a large group who has been given exposure whilst our senior players are still around. I also think all the players we lost, have largely not come back to bite us, thus far - bar McCarthy.

While there are differing reasons for all this, one thing is constant - whilst young players are developing, they're largely not being given senior exposure, so they're either wanting to leave if another club wants them - or end up being delisted. On review, this is what I think this draft has focused on most.

Think of all the players we passed over - Macdonald, Sonsie, Taylor, Howes, Draper etc. Would ANY of these players have gotten a look in next year - I suspect not. They're one or two years behind in their development, when it comes to our current draftees from recent years - who we need to give exposure to as well.

So how then do you draft someone and tell them they're no chance of playing senior footy for 2 years - at least - when so many other clubs/draft experts, have rated them so highly? You can't. So then they don't make it/they ask for a trade, and the cycle continues (see GWS as a perfect example of this, and why we might get Bruhn back as soon as next year if they continue this way).

All of SDK, Stephens, Narkle, Simpson, Zuthrie, Stevens, even Schlensog if he comes back, all understand our system, are more physically developed, and can slot in much easier into our senior side - as opposed to a new developing draftee like Macdonald, Taylor, Howes etc.

So what's the best way to avoid all this? Draft either home grown talent who's from the area and knows our program, the coaches, the club, and is happy to take their time as they're not a fish out of water - like Conway, Knevitt and Whyte - or, draft ready made talent like Willis and Kroeger, who dont need any development, and can play Round 1 next year. Ollie Dempsey is a free hit, and a rookie who no-one knew about - so he's going to know he's far back in the queue and should be, too.

This is why I think we took the tact we did, and why we were so heavily linked to someone like Sheldrick. In 2 years, Conway, Knevitt and Whyte will have played a combined 4+ years of footy together - not to mention other recent Falcons like Cooper and Gryan, who have played together too. Then we add in someone like Jhye Clark next year, and suddenly you have a whole midfield of players who know each other's strengths and weaknesses, and come 2024, they're ready to play as an onball unit with some serious synergy.

The other side, is Willis and Kroeger are here for the 'now.' We'll have injuries and we'll have retirements, and they'll play either next year or 2023 (Willis I reckon plays Round 1 next year).

If you look at things this way, it kinda makes sense why we've gone the way we did. Once we have all our retirements and more spots open up, then it becomes easier to grab more highly rated players from the draft who expect to play immediately - as there's ample opportunity waiting for them (without waiting), if they're deserving of a spot.

Anyway, sorry for the long rant, haha, but these were just some thoughts I had today - when analyzing our draft strategy as a whole. Throw in covid and lack of exposure into the mix, and it becomes pretty apparent why we didn't stray too far from home/went with safer picks who don't need devleopment - as there's less risk on both fronts.

Hopefully some of these guys turn out, and I really am excited about Willis in particular.

Bring on 2022!

 

[Larry Donohue]

Reckon we will get Schlensog or Morrison - but we'll use the summer to decide who we want more/who jells better

But no provision other than mid season draft to select one?

 

[Jimmy Yamazaki]

But no provision other than mid season draft to select one?

We can still add someone as a rookie before March.

 

[OzeSparky]

***WARNING ⚠ THIS IS GONNA BE LONG***

After careful consideration, I thought a bit more about things this morning regarding our draft strategy, and I think on re-analysis - I understand now why we did what we did.

When I think about who we've drafted in recent years and who's left, there's been an ultra consistent pattern - they've been decently rated, the majority have been in the Top 40 picked, and they haven't been able to get a game, so they've left for more opportunity.

Since 2016, we've had all of:

Clark
Kreuger
Fogarty
Vardy
Constable
Lang
McCarthy
Thurlow
Cockatoo
Kersten
Smedts
GHS

all leave for greater opportunities/new opportunities after injury/form loss (26 or under when they left).

We've also had all of:

Kennerley
Taheny
Jarvis
Tarca
J. Jones (got picked up by the Eagles)
Schlensog
Brownless
Hayball
Gardener (got picked up by the Dogs)

be delisted without playing 10 games between all of them (JJ played 7 and Jarvis played 1).

From our 2019 draft, Evans, Stephens, and SDK have played 4 games between them. Close has been the one who has been given the most opportunity and also shown the most.

From our 2020 draft, Holmes was given some exposure, but others like Stevens have not got a look in yet.

Now this is not to say that any of this strategy has been wrong - it largely hasn't. When I think of those who have been given a decent opportunity and who still remain on our list from 2016 onwards, there's quite a large group who has been given exposure whilst our senior players are still around. I also think all the players we lost, have largely not come back to bite us, thus far - bar McCarthy.

While there are differing reasons for all this, one thing is constant - whilst young players are developing, they're largely not being given senior exposure, so they're either wanting to leave if another club wants them - or end up being delisted. On review, this is what I think this draft has focused on most.

Think of all the players we passed over - Macdonald, Sonsie, Taylor, Howes, Draper etc. Would ANY of these players have gotten a look in next year - I suspect not. They're one or two years behind in their development, when it comes to our current draftees from recent years - who we need to give exposure to as well.

So how then do you draft someone and tell them they're no chance of playing senior footy for 2 years - at least - when so many other clubs/draft experts, have rated them so highly? You can't. So then they don't make it/they ask for a trade, and the cycle continues (see GWS as a perfect example of this, and why we might get Bruhn back as soon as next year if they continue this way).

All of SDK, Stephens, Narkle, Simpson, Zuthrie, Stevens, even Schlensog if he comes back, all understand our system, are more physically developed, and can slot in much easier into our senior side - as opposed to a new developing draftee like Macdonald, Taylor, Howes etc.

So what's the best way to avoid all this? Draft either home grown talent who's from the area and knows our program, the coaches, the club, and is happy to take their time as they're not a fish out of water - like Conway, Knevitt and Whyte - or, draft ready made talent like Willis and Kroeger, who dont need any development, and can play Round 1 next year. Ollie Dempsey is a free hit, and a rookie who no-one knew about - so he's going to know he's far back in the queue and should be, too.

This is why I think we took the tact we did, and why we were so heavily linked to someone like Sheldrick. In 2 years, Conway, Knevitt and Whyte will have played a combined 4+ years of footy together - not to mention other recent Falcons like Cooper and Gryan, who have played together too. Then we add in someone like Jhye Clark next year, and suddenly you have a whole midfield of players who know each other's strengths and weaknesses, and come 2024, they're ready to play as an onball unit with some serious synergy.

The other side, is Willis and Kroeger are here for the 'now.' We'll have injuries and we'll have retirements, and they'll play either next year or 2023 (Willis I reckon plays Round 1 next year).

If you look at things this way, it kinda makes sense why we've gone the way we did. Once we have all our retirements and more spots open up, then it becomes easier to grab more highly rated players from the draft who expect to play immediately - as there's ample opportunity waiting for them (without waiting), if they're deserving of a spot.

Anyway, sorry for the long rant, haha, but these were just some thoughts I had today - when analyzing our draft strategy as a whole. Throw in covid and lack of exposure into the mix, and it becomes pretty apparent why we didn't stray too far from home/went with safer picks who don't need devleopment - as there's less risk on both fronts.

Hopefully some of these guys turn out, and I really am excited about Willis in particular.

Bring on 2022!

Nice post.
Could it be as simple as we haven't been good with development as of late.
S Hocking has noticed this and is implementing a whole new development program with Egan and Eddie

 

[Turbocat]

***WARNING ⚠ THIS IS GONNA BE LONG***

After careful consideration, I thought a bit more about things this morning regarding our draft strategy, and I think on re-analysis - I understand now why we did what we did.

When I think about who we've drafted in recent years and who's left, there's been an ultra consistent pattern - they've been decently rated, the majority have been in the Top 40 picked, and they haven't been able to get a game, so they've left for more opportunity.

Since 2016, we've had all of:

Clark
Kreuger
Fogarty
Vardy
Constable
Lang
McCarthy
Thurlow
Cockatoo
Kersten
Smedts
GHS

all leave for greater opportunities/new opportunities after injury/form loss (26 or under when they left).

We've also had all of:

Kennerley
Taheny
Jarvis
Tarca
J. Jones (got picked up by the Eagles)
Schlensog
Brownless
Hayball
Gardener (got picked up by the Dogs)

be delisted without playing 10 games between all of them (JJ played 7 and Jarvis played 1).

From our 2019 draft, Evans, Stephens, and SDK have played 4 games between them. Close has been the one who has been given the most opportunity and also shown the most.

From our 2020 draft, Holmes was given some exposure, but others like Stevens have not got a look in yet.

Now this is not to say that any of this strategy has been wrong - it largely hasn't. When I think of those who have been given a decent opportunity and who still remain on our list from 2016 onwards, there's quite a large group who has been given exposure whilst our senior players are still around. I also think all the players we lost, have largely not come back to bite us, thus far - bar McCarthy.

While there are differing reasons for all this, one thing is constant - whilst young players are developing, they're largely not being given senior exposure, so they're either wanting to leave if another club wants them - or end up being delisted. On review, this is what I think this draft has focused on most.

Think of all the players we passed over - Macdonald, Sonsie, Taylor, Howes, Draper etc. Would ANY of these players have gotten a look in next year - I suspect not. They're one or two years behind in their development, when it comes to our current draftees from recent years - who we need to give exposure to as well.

So how then do you draft someone and tell them they're no chance of playing senior footy for 2 years - at least - when so many other clubs/draft experts, have rated them so highly? You can't. So then they don't make it/they ask for a trade, and the cycle continues (see GWS as a perfect example of this, and why we might get Bruhn back as soon as next year if they continue this way).

All of SDK, Stephens, Narkle, Simpson, Zuthrie, Stevens, even Schlensog if he comes back, all understand our system, are more physically developed, and can slot in much easier into our senior side - as opposed to a new developing draftee like Macdonald, Taylor, Howes etc.

So what's the best way to avoid all this? Draft either home grown talent who's from the area and knows our program, the coaches, the club, and is happy to take their time as they're not a fish out of water - like Conway, Knevitt and Whyte - or, draft ready made talent like Willis and Kroeger, who dont need any development, and can play Round 1 next year. Ollie Dempsey is a free hit, and a rookie who no-one knew about - so he's going to know he's far back in the queue and should be, too.

This is why I think we took the tact we did, and why we were so heavily linked to someone like Sheldrick. In 2 years, Conway, Knevitt and Whyte will have played a combined 4+ years of footy together - not to mention other recent Falcons like Cooper and Gryan, who have played together too. Then we add in aomeone like Jhye Clark next year, and suddenly you have a whole midfield of players who know each other's strengths and weaknesses, and come 2024, they're ready to play as an onball unit with some serious synergy.

The other side, is Willis and Kroeger are here for the 'now.' We'll have injuries and we'll have retirements, and they'll play either next year or 2023 (Willis I reckon plays Round 1 next year).

If you look at things this way, it kinda makes sense why we've gone the way we did. Once we have all our retirements and more spots open up, then it becomes easier to grab more highly rated players from the draft who expect to play immediately - as there's ample opportunity waiting for them (without waiting), if they're deserving of a spot.

Anyway, sorry for the long rant, haha, but these were just some thoughts I had today - when analyzing our draft strategy as a whole. Throw in covid and lack of exposure into the mix, and it becomes pretty apparent why we didn't stray too far from home/went with safer picks who don't need devleopment - as there's less risk on both fronts.

Hopefully some of these guys turn out, and I really am excited about Willis in particular.

Bring on 2022!

Top post.

The psychology of the players we drafted probably play a part every year but your is a reasonable thesis. I think there has been a change.

Id like to see more of the players before I buy into Willis and Kroeger being ready, bodies look good but lets see them preseason, as I believe as recent as last year someone like Holmes was able to come in and play even though he was under nourished in football experience, because he gave us fresh legs.

This year to me we have altered our approach.

At one, we locked in another young ruck, time will tell if that was to cover some one like Neale leaving or just to give him two years to groom to replace Ceglar and Stanley. Fits the thesis. A local who will be more patient than an interstate player. Will he play in2022 Very low chance. Only injuries could affect that.

After him. We took Knevitt whos running numbers probably look good in the way Holmes did but Kneveit brings inside size and potential. Id not rule out him playing at some stage in 2022 but all things being equal, Cooper Stephens should run him into the ground and stomp on him before he lets himself be passed over. For Knevitt, maybe only a game here or there but he should be able to cope with the running demands. The speed of the game may be different. We wills see.

The other 4 look nuggety dynomo's. I'm visualising something like a Chappy. A penchant for an aggressive attack on the footy rather than purely outside talent. Its been said many time you can only play the style your talent allows you to play. This may indicate a move in building a list to shape a different style.
As shown with Close, if capable we will play Rookies. It will be a lot of dogs trying to eat at the bowl.If any if them play we will have done well.

I find this a contrast to Clark not being able to hold his position, who is probably a talent as any we have drafted this year but his type of game and attitude was something we need to redress. I think he will be good for Freo, he would not be the. first player to burn bridges and be better in his second club.

I also agree with the undertone of expectation. Players getting drafted now, do not visualise Michal Tuck and the number of his games in the 2's.. tehy visualise themselves playing from day 1. Thats easier in some clubs than others. I suspect there has been a slight misalignment between recruitment and team selection, and the players we have brought in probably tick a lot of boxes that should allow them to put pressure on for selection

Id also say there has probably been a little bit of a tweak to picking non vic player early. ..which fits your thesis. Let's see in 12 months , Neale gets an offer... the same thing could easily apply to him as Bruhn. I think that the mindset of expectation that you describe is certainly real. Basically if you take a player early, and he doesn't get games, they will come for him. As you say GWS and Gold Coast suffer from it but I'd bet all clubs are feeling retention heat. So we have probably move a little closer to if the talent and skills are close enough, then go local.Its back to the future from that Ling and Bartel type era.

The Preseason will see if and how close these new guys are. They best be as close to Blitz and Menegola as they can manage if they want games. The test will be then for the MC. I suspect that this draft was only the first film in a trio franchise, next year we will not only add more..but it may see some pain with the mature guys find contract offers thin. If in 12 months we are on track then we should have 3-5 younger players in our best22, and a perceivable difference in our age dynamic.

 

[year of the cat]

Have a theory re taking Conway. For what we’ve read next years draft is heavy with rucks. Perhaps by buying early, as well as rating Conway in his own right, it allows us to focus on drafting for Jhye Clarke rather than going tall early.

We need an elite mid. This kid is one and is local. Reckon we’ll offer up a fair bit to try secure him this time next year.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

Have a theory re taking Conway. For what we’ve read next years draft is heavy with rucks. Perhaps by buying early, as well as rating Conway in his own right, it allows us to focus on drafting for Jhye Clarke rather than going tall early.

We need an elite mid. This kid is one and is local. Reckon we’ll offer up a fair bit to try secure him this time next year.

I'd give a F1 and next year's first for Clark.

Someone Involved says he's that good.

 

[year of the cat]

I'd give a F1 and next year's first for Clark.

Someone Involved says he's that good.

It might take that. And be worth it.

 

[calder_daddy]

I'd give a F1 and next year's first for Clark.

Someone Involved says he's that good.

Have a theory re taking Conway. For what we’ve read next years draft is heavy with rucks. Perhaps by buying early, as well as rating Conway in his own right, it allows us to focus on drafting for Jhye Clarke rather than going tall early.

We need an elite mid. This kid is one and is local. Reckon we’ll offer up a fair bit to try secure him this time next year.

I remember prior to Sam Walsh being drafted it was extremely similar chat to Clarke. If it’s the same case, I’d give up all our picks for a Walsh

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

It might take that. And be worth it.

Wait until Cooper Stephens gets a good run at it.

 

[STPer18]

I'm getting tingles at the prospect of having a ruck we can just pencil in each week to at least be competitive for hopefully a decade if Conway kicks on. It's the one thing we've never solved since post-2011 GF.

 

[hamG]

Just flipping through our last 3 drafts we do have AFL level prospects from the picks we've had. But it is really going to be this batch plus De Koning to kick start our next gen.

I expect we will do some upgrades to picks next year for teams who need points but wouldn't bank on getting anything in the 20's. Also any danger we could be the team getting elite talent for a handful of crap picks at some stage.

 

[Cat Addict]

We have 4 FR3
It’s a good start

I thought we only had 3 FR3 and 2FR4 selections?

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Yeah, they had Hawthorn's, Richmond's and Brisbane's F3. They had already traded out their own F3 to Gold Coast. It will be somewhere between 40-50.

Our 2022 hand is looking like 15, 33, 42, 45, 51, 59, 69 - looks like we're a very good chance to trade up again with a club that needs draft points.

Who knows though, with a fully vaxxed comp and potentially a few great kids that have been missed the last two years hitting their straps in state league, this picks might not even be considered that late

 

[Lana]

These last few drafts feel like we gone for cake rather than cream. Inside players and KPP. Last time we did something similar was back on 2010 and 2011. First early ruckman since 2007. Even then we did go that all in. Finally feels like we have decided to create a new core. Won't be a smooth transition.

I can't see how Z.Guthrie, Simpson and Narkle hang on.

 

[Shadow89]

Top post.

The psychology of the players we drafted probably play a part every year but your is a reasonable thesis. I think there has been a change.

Id like to see more of the players before I buy into Willis and Kroeger being ready, bodies look good but lets see them preseason, as I believe as recent as last year someone like Holmes was able to come in and play even though he was under nourished in football experience, because he gave us fresh legs.

This year to me we have altered our approach.

At one, we locked in another young ruck, time will tell if that was to cover some one like Neale leaving or just to give him two years to groom to replace Ceglar and Stanley. Fits the thesis. A local who will be more patient than an interstate player. Will he play in2022 Very low chance. Only injuries could affect that.

After him. We took Knevitt whos running numbers probably look good in the way Holmes did but Kneveit brings inside size and potential. Id not rule out him playing at some stage in 2022 but all things being equal, Cooper Stephens should run him into the ground and stomp on him before he lets himself be passed over. For Knevitt, maybe only a game here or there but he should be able to cope with the running demands. The speed of the game may be different. We wills see.

The other 4 look nuggety dynomo's. I'm visualising something like a Chappy. A penchant for an aggressive attack on the footy rather than purely outside talent. Its been said many time you can only play the style your talent allows you to play. This may indicate a move in building a list to shape a different style.
As shown with Close, if capable we will play Rookies. It will be a lot of dogs trying to eat at the bowl.If any if them play we will have done well.

I find this a contrast to Clark not being able to hold his position, who is probably a talent as any we have drafted this year but his type of game and attitude was something we need to redress. I think he will be good for Freo, he would not be the. first player to burn bridges and be better in his second club.

I also agree with the undertone of expectation. Players getting drafted now, do not visualise Michal Tuck and the number of his games in the 2's.. tehy visualise themselves playing from day 1. Thats easier in some clubs than others. I suspect there has been a slight misalignment between recruitment and team selection, and the players we have brought in probably tick a lot of boxes that should allow them to put pressure on for selection

Id also say there has probably been a little bit of a tweak to picking non vic player early. ..which fits your thesis. Let's see in 12 months , Neale gets an offer... the same thing could easily apply to him as Bruhn. I think that the mindset of expectation that you describe is certainly real. Basically if you take a player early, and he doesn't get games, they will come for him. As you say GWS and Gold Coast suffer from it but I'd bet all clubs are feeling retention heat. So we have probably move a little closer to if the talent and skills are close enough, then go local.Its back to the future from that Ling and Bartel type era.

The Preseason will see if and how close these new guys are. They best be as close to Blitz and Menegola as they can manage if they want games. The test will be then for the MC. I suspect that this draft was only the first film in a trio franchise, next year we will not only add more..but it may see some pain with the mature guys find contract offers thin. If in 12 months we are on track then we should have 3-5 younger players in our best22, and a perceivable difference in our age dynamic.

Top post yourself mate Absolutely agree with all of the above - and very well said.

P.S. love that you called it a thesis, haha - as that was the 'style' I was going with. Albeit, not even in the same stratosphere (word count wise) as my own thesis I had to write a few years back - that shit still gives me nightmares

 

[Shadow89]

These last few drafts feel like we gone for cake rather than cream. Inside players and KPP. Last time we did something similar was back on 2010 and 2011. First early ruckman since 2007. Even then we did go that all in. Finally feels like we have decided to create a new core. Won't be a smooth transition.

I can't see how Z.Guthrie, Simpson and Narkle hang on.

Narkle won't, and he'll be gone as soon as end of next year, IMO. The other two have made big strides over the last couple of years - and can play multiple positions - so I think they definitely still could make it in the long run

 

[Shooooltzey]

Simpson and Zguthers are interesting ones for me. I think they are both very capable at the level and could contribute 150+ games for the club. But neither will be world beaters. However are we really losing that much by slotting Willis in at half forward with a bit a mid time over Simpson in the short term. Like is that going to really affect the team performance. And then obviously long term we are aiding Willis's development. Same can be said for Zguthers and Kroeger. I think both sides are deserving of a spot in the 22. Expecially very hard to think about given Simpson is my favorite player.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

These last few drafts feel like we gone for cake rather than cream. Inside players and KPP. Last time we did something similar was back on 2010 and 2011. First early ruckman since 2007. Even then we did go that all in. Finally feels like we have decided to create a new core. Won't be a smooth transition.

I can't see how Z.Guthrie, Simpson and Narkle hang on.

Simpson will make it imo.

I probs agree on the other 2.