Rumour GFC 2021 Player Trading, Drafting FA, Rumours and Wish lists... Part II

[Shadow89]

I've been thinking the same thing.
By my calculations if GWS bid on Darcy at pick 2 we (the dogs) could just about match with the picks we have + 30 instead of 23.
If GWS bid at pick 3 (after Daicos) we could match with the picks we have + 51 instead of 23.

Given that you have pick 30 and pick 50, we could very likely have different live trades lined up for different contingencies?

Something like: If Darcy is nominated at 2 we trade pick 23 for 30 + Geelong future 2nd (maybe some other shuffling).
If Darcy is nominated after Daicos at 3 we trade 23 for 50 + Geelong future 2nd + Carlton future 3rd.

Would be very very happy if it was option 3, but would more likely be one of our 30's picks this year, if we do indeed pick up Schlensog as has been speculated. If not, then having all 3 of our 30's picks and Pick 22 and 23 would be an absolute bounty to take into draft night!

 

[Shadow89]

I would have thought that the pick swap trade with the bulldogs would go through today to give the bulldogs time to then on trade the 30s pick again.

Nah it'll be on the night, as they won't be on trading it, but rather using it themselves if we do indeed trade a pick from this year (could either be Pick 50 or a 30's pick depending on what both clubs want to do/if Schlensog signs as a DFA and leaves us with 1 less list spot).

I.e. agreement in place states Darcy will get bid on at 2 or 3 as Doggies poster above suggested. Then they'll trade out 23 to us for a Future 2nd, 50 and Carlton Future 3rd (for example).

If they want a 30's pick from us this year, we trade them the Future 2nd, and then pick swap after Darcy has been secured, with Pick 30/32/34 for their Future 2nd or ours back (not sure if you can trade the same pick after the Swans loophole a couple of years back, but Doggies second will be similar to us anyway if we need to get around that)

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Yep, seems like a future pick will have to be involved otherwise there's no incentive for the dogs. I think 30 plus a future 2nd seems too expensive, that's basically 2x pick 30 for pick 23, I don't think moving up 7 spots is worth that much.

Edit: having looked at these picks in terms of prospects in this draft, the above would be like giving up two of Sheldrick/Alleer/Hough/Bazzo/Williams for one of Taylor/Chesser/Knevitt/Van Rooyen - which I'd actually be open to.

Historically an early second has been worth two late seconds in a trade so if you assume we finish top 6 again next year 32 + future 2nd is about fair...especially viewed against what richmond paid for pick 27.

 

[ShaunWDT]

Expect most pick swaps are held back now, theres a 45 minute period dedicated to it before the 2nd round onwards of drafting commences.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I would have thought that the pick swap trade with the bulldogs would go through today to give the bulldogs time to then on trade the 30s pick again.

They can do that on draft night though.
For eg when darcy bid at 3 in the 5mins they have to match trade 23 for 34 and future 2nd before they match, then later in R1 they trade a future 2nd for someones current 2nd to target a player..that way they know what player is there.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Expect most pick swaps are held back now, theres a 45 minute period dedicated to it before the 2nd round onwards of drafting commences.

Plus the overnight after R1 teams can line up deals for when R2 starts the next day.

 

[Drunkcat]

There is a large, and growing, group of players hovering around pick 20. Below are some of the names that could go in the first round but, if not, will more than likely be gone before our pick 30:

• Tyler Sonsie
• Matt Roberts
• Josh Goater
• Darcy Wilmot
• Campbell Chesser
• Jacob van Rooyen
• Mitch Knevitt
• Leek Alleer
• Sam Butler
• Mitchito Owens
• Zac Taylor
• Josh Fahey
• Tom Brown

So many of these guy's have flaws, really a couple only should be under pick 40

 

[Pure_Ownage]

They already had to fit Lachie Young into that back 6 and Oscar McDonald was a key defender before they got him from the Dees, they'd be hoping Marchbank is an option aswell got plenty of defenders really.

Marchbank is very injury prone and mcdonald is very average.

 

[Shadow89]

They can do that on draft night though.
For eg when darcy bid at 3 in the 5mins they have to match trade 23 for 34 and future 2nd before they match, then later in R1 they trade a future 2nd for someones current 2nd to target a player..that way they know what player is there.

Basically what I said above, haha - great minds!

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Nah it'll be on the night, as they won't be on trading it, but rather using it themselves if we do indeed trade a pick from this year (could either be Pick 50 or a 30's pick depending on what both clubs want to do/if Schlensog signs as a DFA and leaves us with 1 less list spot).

I.e. agreement in place states Darcy will get bid on at 2 or 3 as Doggies poster above suggested. Then they'll trade out 23 to us for a Future 2nd, 50 and Carlton Future 3rd (for example).

If they want a 30's pick from us this year, we trade them the Future 2nd, and then pick swap after Darcy has been secured, with Pick 30/32/34 for their Future 2nd or ours back (not sure if you can trade the same pick after the Swans loophole a couple of years back, but Doggies second will be similar to us anyway if we need to get around that)

You cant receive the same pick back in that you traded out but you get around it how you suggested ie we trade our R2 to dogs and later they trade their R2 back to us or we trade them carltons R3 and dogs R3 comes back to us etc.

 

[ShaunWDT]

Marchbank is very injury prone and mcdonald is very average.

No more average than blokes that arent even in an AFL system.

 

[Shadow89]

You cant receive the same pick back in that you traded out but you get around it how you suggested ie we trade our R2 to dogs and later they trade their R2 back to us or we trade them carltons R3 and dogs R3 comes back to us etc.

Yep thought that might be the case, hence the Doggies second loophole that I suggested. Lot of ways to go about it, but that's my guess for how it goes on draft night (one of the two options dependant on if Schlensog signs/if Doggies want a decent pick in this draft)

 

[BORIS332]

I would have thought that the pick swap trade with the bulldogs would go through today to give the bulldogs time to then on trade the 30s pick again.

They'll need to keep the 30s pick/s to match the Darcy bid.

What we give up will depend on where the Darcy bid comes - if it's at pick 2 they'll need two 2021 picks from us to match the bid, it might be 30 + 50 + future pick. But if the bid comes at pick 3 then they'll only need one 2021 pick from us to match the bid, maybe 30 or 32 plus a future pick.

The value to the Dogs is the future pick, any 2021 picks will be swallowed up by the matched bid. We might have even said if the Darcy bid comes at pick 2 we won't do the trade because it will cost us too much to make it worth the Dogs' while.

Don't forget that if the Daicos bid comes at pick 2, then all of the Dogs picks after 23 move up and they automatically net an extra 219 points. Plenty of scenarios to play out on draft night that will determine the trade, hence why they will wait.

 

[BORIS332]

So many of these guy's have flaws, really a couple only should be under pick 40

Horne Francis and Daicos have flaws too.

 

[ShaunWDT]

So many of these guy's have flaws, really a couple only should be under pick 40

Most of the draft has flaws theyve hardly touched a footy in two years, sides would be hoping theres plenty of upside in most of that list.

 

[BigCat1]

Time to get on the blower to the Blues.

They were short a pick before Jones retired and were shopping #25. Now they are short 2 picks. Way more leverage than bending over for the WB.

Wait until the bids are done on the night and trade them #27 for #36ish and #43ish. Points wise a slight loss but gives us #24, #27, #32, and #34 and maybe the last pick of the draft around #60.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

Let's just take the picks we have to the draft.

And no trading out future picks, we're going to need them.

 

[BORIS332]

Time to get on the blower to the Blues.

They were short a pick before Jones retired and were shopping #25. Now they are short 2 picks. Way more leverage than bending over for the WB.

Wait until the bids are done on the night and trade them #27 for #36ish and #43ish. Points wise a slight loss but gives us #24, #27, #32, and #34 and maybe the last pick of the draft around #60.

I'm guessing you've worked that out as follows:

Our pick before bids	After bids
22	24
30	31
32	33
34	36
50	43

If so, I'd say giving up 34 (36) & 50 (43) for 25 (27) is a win for both clubs and is less than it would cost us to secure the Dogs' pick 23. I don't care about draft points, they're meaningless unless you're matching bids.

 

[year of the cat]

Is Hawthorn going to steal at pick 24 whoever we would trade up for with the Carl pick? Might be safer just to trade for 23.

 

[Larry Donohue]

Mmm they need more of a ready-made replacement IMO, so not sure Schlensog is the best fit (sounds like they want a compo pick/they did already get Young in which covers them down back).

Still think we'll announce him as a DFA before close of business today, but you could well be right if Carlton really want him and can give him that guarantee of game time moving forward.

Either way, we'll know by tonight!

Every has forgotten marchbank who missed last year

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

Is Hawthorn going to steal at pick 24 whoever we would trade up for with the Carl pick? Might be safer just to trade for 23.

If we trade up how would Hawthorn know who it's for?

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Time to get on the blower to the Blues.

They were short a pick before Jones retired and were shopping #25. Now they are short 2 picks. Way more leverage than bending over for the WB.

Wait until the bids are done on the night and trade them #27 for #36ish and #43ish. Points wise a slight loss but gives us #24, #27, #32, and #34 and maybe the last pick of the draft around #60.

True they may want to split 25 now and doing it after bids have been matched is a smart idea. Decent backup plan if we cant get 23 as i doubt wed go for both.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

If we trade up how would Hawthorn know who it's for?

Depends if we think they want the same player we do (whether its sonsie taylor brown chesser sheldrick etc). 23 might be lower risk and id prefer it but if 25 is a lot cheaper to get than 23 then you do that.

 

[cats_09]

Every has forgotten marchbank who missed last year

Marchbank hasn't played for 2 years - potentially a bigger risk to bank on him being the answer down back versus a new recruit replacing Jones on the list

 

[BigCat1]

I'm guessing you've worked that out as follows:

Our pick before bids	After bids
22	24
30	31
32	33
34	36
50	43

If so, I'd say giving up 34 (36) & 50 (43) for 25 (27) is a win for both clubs and is less than it would cost us to secure the Dogs' pick 23. I don't care about draft points, they're meaningless unless you're matching bids.

You always want Geel to have 1 pick around 55-60 otherwise we will reaching massively on our last pick. We love to back our judgement on somebody and if our last pick is 36ish we won’t be able to help ourselves calling out somebody without any tv coverage stats or even a draft day photo.