Rumour GFC 2024 Player Trading, Drafting FA, Rumours and Wish lists Pt 2

[cats_09]

Ask and we'll try our best to assist - so here's 2024 Provisional AFL Draft Order

As normal, would like to acknowledge & thank Lore for creating this, keeping it up to date and making it available for all users on BF to use and keep track of the picks ahead of the upcoming draft





I'll also sticky this post to ensure it's easily accessible for discussion of our hypothetical trader


Also,

2024 Free Agency Period​

The AFL introduced free agency at the end of the 2012 season, giving players another vehicle where they can transfer from one club to another. Free agency is a common form of player movement in major football and sporting codes around the world.

Free Agency Opens: Friday October 4 at 9.00am
Free Agency Closes: Friday October 11 at 5.00pm

Continental Tyres AFL Trade Period​

Trade Period Opens: Monday October 7 at 9.00am
Trade Period Closes: Wednesday October 16 at 7.30pm

 

[Footy Smarts]

Some merit to looking at Martin, and retaining guys like Duncan and Bews, but a bit of underrating the value in some unknown kid at pick 82 or in the rookie draft.

In our prelim team, we had Atkins, J Henry, Zuthrie, Close, & Dempsey all taken as rookies. All those guys will play 100 games, all except Atkins are on track IMO to play 200 (Dempsey you could argue).

We have drafted 14 rookies in the past 8 drafts (12 unknowns plus Crameri & Henderson) so going at ~40% (5 out of 12) for turning non-AFL player rookie picks into good 100+ gamers since we got Henry & Guthrie in 2016. Not convinced that’s achievable long-term but at minimum 20% should be.

List churn is valuable. Three currencies in list management: draft picks, salary cap, list spots.

They're not "an unknown kid" to our recruiters though.

We actually do pretty poorly when we give a list spot to a typical junior who came through the usual pathways. Guys like Cooper Whyte, Nick Stevens, etc.

We do exceptionally well when we find a player from obscure backgrounds or mature age that weren't expected to be picked (Dempsey, Humphries, Atkins, Close, Blicavs, etc).

Even Zach Guthrie didn't even make the Calder Cannons squad (not team but squad) in his underage year and Jack Henry was considered a surprise to even get an invite to the draft combine. They were both genuine bolters.

If we're not churning our list it's cause we don't see guys like Humphries, Dempsey, etc that we really want.

 

[Stan The Caddy]

There are no free hits.

List spots and salary cap are valuable commodities and definitely not free.

Semantics.

 

[Kitcat]

After Smith’s comments about outgrowing the club, Dogs posters are saying he wasn’t good enough to break into their midfield and would have been 5th/6th choice next season. No mention of accepting a lower trade value though.

 

[numbwombat]

They're not "an unknown kid" to our recruiters though.

We actually do pretty poorly when we give a list spot to a typical junior who came through the usual pathways. Guys like Cooper Whyte, Nick Stevens, etc.

We do exceptionally well when we find a player from obscure backgrounds or mature age that weren't expected to be picked (Dempsey, Humphries, Atkins, Close, Blicavs, etc).

Even Zach Guthrie didn't even make the Calder Cannons squad (not team but squad) in his underage year and Jack Henry was considered a surprise to even get an invite to the draft combine. They were both genuine bolters.

If we're not churning our list it's cause we don't see guys like Humphries, Dempsey, etc that we really want.

Yes. I’m not speaking to our recruiters, though, I’m speaking to people on here who have expressed doubt re: the value of freeing up list spots or refer to Jack Martin as a free hit.

We have 9 out of 45 players leaving our list, that is a huge change. Not plausible to argue that recruiters aren’t acting like it’s a deep draft with a lot of value in late picks.

 

[Hinkley29]

It's his third year and he's been poor in 3/4 of his 18 games, he needs way more time learning the craft and his kicking may be good but as a run-with player he can't find the ball, if knevitt or clarke played as badly we would being hanging them off the rafters, but the good news is he has time to show improvement.

Second year player who is not dominating after 18 games.

What a shock

 

[Hinkley29]

Semantics.

It is far from semantics.

There is a concept known as opportunity cost. Good clubs understand it, shit clubs don’t.

 

[iameviljez]

Semantics.

No, Hinkley29 is correct. No such thing as a free hit.

Lawson Humphries is Exhibit A here, and Ollie Dempsey is Exhibit B. We basically bought ourselves two nothing picks at the end of the draft, and used them on two smokies in Wiltshire and Humphries. One of them has clearly worked out thus far.

Then there's the question of spots in the 22. If Martin had been here and fit at the start of this year, I have no doubt that Ollie Dempsey wouldn't have gotten the same opportunities, nor Mannagh to be honest.

List places and AFL games are limited commodities, you can't give one without taking something away.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Yes. I’m not speaking to our recruiters, though, I’m speaking to people on here who have expressed doubt re: the value of freeing up list spots or refer to Jack Martin as a free hit.

We have 9 out of 45 players leaving our list, that is a huge change. Not plausible to argue that recruiters aren’t acting like it’s a deep draft with a lot of value in late picks.

9 changes is pretty standard. If we get Martin, Smith and the Irish category B rookie then unless we make further cuts we'll have at most 6 picks across the 2 drafts (less if we leave a spot vacant).

We've only taken less than 6 picks twice in the last 10 drafts. We've taken more than 6 picks 6 times in the last 10 drafts.

The talk is this draft is very deep in the top 30-40. But if anything we're acting like we see less value at the back end of the draft than usual.

 

[iameviljez]

9 changes is pretty standard. If we get Martin, Smith and the Irish category B rookie then unless we make further cuts we'll have at most 6 picks across the 2 drafts (less if we leave a spot vacant).

Yeah, especially if you include rookies in that list.

 

[bombersboy]

If we get injuries to any of Cameron, Neale or Ollie Henry who plays forward - Jack Henry

38

Jack Henry

Age

26

Ht

192cm

Wt

96kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.3

3star

K

7.3

3star

HB

2.9

3star

M

4.0

4star

T

2.2

4star

MG

142.6

2star

D

8.6

2star

K

6.7

3star

HB

1.9

1star

M

3.9

4star

T

2.1

3star

MG

142.6

3star

D

9.6

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

2.6

3star

M

3.6

4star

T

2.0

4star

or maybe SDK? We have a lot more coverage down back with SDK, Blicavs, Jack Henry

38

Jack Henry

Age

26

Ht

192cm

Wt

96kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.3

3star

K

7.3

3star

HB

2.9

3star

M

4.0

4star

T

2.2

4star

MG

142.6

2star

D

8.6

2star

K

6.7

3star

HB

1.9

1star

M

3.9

4star

T

2.1

3star

MG

142.6

3star

D

9.6

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

2.6

3star

M

3.6

4star

T

2.0

4star

, Kolo, Stewart, Zach Guthrie

39

Zach Guthrie

Age

26

Ht

188cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.0

3star

K

5.8

2star

HB

5.2

4star

M

3.3

3star

T

1.8

4star

MG

90.0

1star

D

7.0

1star

K

4.0

1star

HB

3.0

2star

M

1.0

1star

T

1.0

2star

MG

90.0

2star

D

10.4

3star

K

3.8

2star

HB

6.6

4star

M

2.0

3star

T

1.6

4star

, Humphries, Bews plus COS developing. Easy to make a case for 1 or 2 of these moving to another role.

With Rohan retiring there is no coverage for the medium marking forward role. It is Ollie Henry or bust.

 

[supahoops]

If we get injuries to any of Cameron, Neale or Ollie Henry who plays forward - Jack Henry or maybe SDK? We have a lot more coverage down back with SDK, Blicavs, Jack Henry, Kolo, Stewart, Zach Guthrie, Humphries, Bews plus COS developing. Easy to make a case for 1 or 2 of these moving to another role.

With Rohan retiring there is no coverage for the medium marking forward role. It is Ollie Henry or bust.

Jack Martin says hi or going with a smaller forward line isn’t the worst option, with Blicavs, Knevitt or whoever our ruck maybe drifting forward. Biggest ‘problem’ with our forward line is the delivery i50, was terrible from where I sat up high at the PF.

 

[Munich]

Yes you are right 2nd year

of AFL.

 

[numbwombat]

9 changes is pretty standard. If we get Martin, Smith and the Irish category B rookie then unless we make further cuts we'll have at most 6 picks across the 2 drafts (less if we leave a spot vacant).

We've only taken less than 6 picks twice in the last 10 drafts. We've taken more than 6 picks 6 times in the last 10 drafts.

The talk is this draft is very deep in the top 30-40. But if anything we're acting like we see less value at the back end of the draft than usual.

lol sure, IF we get Martin and the Irish players. and if we filled all 9 spots via the draft, or more likely, if we traded in Smith but didn't get Martin nor the Irish players (who we haven't even seen yet), and then filled the remaining spots with 8 picks in the national and rookie drafts, that would be the 2nd most picks in the last decade, behind only 2016

"if anything we're acting like we see less value at the back end of the draft than usual" - yes sure absolutely, provided you take into account future events that haven't occurred yet and may not happen, that's exactly how we're acting, you've nailed it

 

[Warhorse]

This draft has depth. Happy to take more this year

 

[Footy Smarts]

lol sure, IF we get Martin and the Irish players. and if we filled all 9 spots via the draft, or more likely, if we traded in Smith but didn't get Martin nor the Irish players (who we haven't even seen yet), and then filled the remaining spots with 8 picks in the national and rookie drafts, that would be the 2nd most picks in the last decade, behind only 2016

"if anything we're acting like we see less value at the back end of the draft than usual" - yes sure absolutely, provided you take into account future events that haven't occurred yet and may not happen, that's exactly how we're acting, you've nailed it

Lol. Settle down.

We're trying to get Martin and the Irish guy. We've offered Bews, Stanley and Duncan contracts for next season. That's not a future event that's happening right now.

If we thought really wanted to go large in this draft we wouldn't be doing all those things.

Maybe we end up taking more picks because Duncan retires or Martin rejects us but clearly that's not the current aim.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

After Smith’s comments about outgrowing the club, Dogs posters are saying he wasn’t good enough to break into their midfield and would have been 5th/6th choice next season. No mention of accepting a lower trade value though.

What did he say?

 

[Kitcat]

If we get injuries to any of Cameron, Neale or Ollie Henry who plays forward - Jack Henry or maybe SDK? We have a lot more coverage down back with SDK, Blicavs, Jack Henry, Kolo, Stewart, Zach Guthrie, Humphries, Bews plus COS developing. Easy to make a case for 1 or 2 of these moving to another role.

With Rohan retiring there is no coverage for the medium marking forward role. It is Ollie Henry or bust.

Danger could spend some time there, particularly if we get another mid in addition to Smith.

 

[bulletproof]

After Smith’s comments about outgrowing the club, Dogs posters are saying he wasn’t good enough to break into their midfield and would have been 5th/6th choice next season. No mention of accepting a lower trade value though.

Interesting they have now moved on from their two best players in 2021 finals series. Smith and Macrae

I wonder if it is they really have better options or they have a deeply eccentric man coaching them.

 

[moond0g]

Their SANFL side are absolutely dog shit its pretty hard to kick goals when you're getting pumped

Perhaps. But I'd still like to see a bit more.

However, even if you completely disregard his SANFL stats as evidence that he ISN'T good on the basis that it's hard for a KPF to excel in those conditions, there's still no evidence to go on that he IS good. That is, other than his one good AFL game.

 

[FootyLad0]

After Smith’s comments about outgrowing the club, Dogs posters are saying he wasn’t good enough to break into their midfield and would have been 5th/6th choice next season. No mention of accepting a lower trade value though.

They are going through it over there BIG TIME lol

5 stages of grief kind of stuff.
Has to sting when Dunkley said they were an unserious football club and how professionalism at the Lions is like night and day compared to the Dogs
And now Smith is saying he’s lost passion for footy playing there and wants to rediscover it.

We are truly blessed ladies and gentlemen to have a club and a culture that is envied

 

[Reg Hickey]

Start with the prelim team. Nobody from that team is leaving by the sounds of it.

Then you've got Smith, SDK, Guthrie and O'Connor as proven AFL level players. Possibly Jack Martin if he comes too.

On top of that Clark, Clohesy, Conway, O'Sullivan and Knevitt all played this year and will be a year older next year.

So that's 27-28 with AFL finals experience and 5 developing kids with AFL experience. That's more experience than we started this year with and doesn't look like a team crying out for more depth.

This is a good call.

Assuming Smith gets over to us, I'm pretty comfortable with where our list is going into next year already. If C Guthrie can get his body right, even better, and if he does I think the couple of years he's had off could even extend his footballing life a little. He might be playing more like a 31yo than a 33yo.

There was a lot of talk about our midfield being a weakness this year, however Champion Data made the point that when Danger came back in we became the #1 team for scoring from stoppage in the AFL. That doesn't sound like midfield weakness to me. Add in Smith and potentially a fit Guthrie, plus another preseason into Holmes, Bruhn, Clark, Knevitt, Clohesy and others, and I think we're in very solid shape.

The fact that we were good when Danger came back in raises the most important issue for me though. He likely only has two seasons left, at most, and he won't play either season in full. So we need to be planning NOW for post-Danger.

We need a big, powerful, contested ball beast. Think Danger, Fyfe, Cripps, LDU, Tom Green. That will be our biggest hole very soon, when we can no longer rely on Danger to fill it.

The problem is that as solid as our midfield lineup looks, there is no obvious replacement for him. He was the best power mid in the game a few years ago, and right now is still formidable for the 12-15 games we can get him on the park. But I don't see any of our other mids being the type to fill that role for us - they're either small scrappers (Atkins, Clark, Clohesy) or runners (Holmes, Smith, Guthrie).

I suspect this was the reason we drafted George Stevens last year, because he looks to be that type, but by all accounts he hardly set the world on fire in the VFL so his future must be questionable. Bruhn often tries to play like a bull, but he's just not big enough to pull it off consistently IMO. Holmes is building impressive strength in his core, but again I don't see him playing the bull role - he's a metres gained type of player. Knevitt has height, but doesn't have the bulk or core strength.

So whatever draft capital we end up with this year, that type of player would be my priority.

 

[foxdog50]

This is a good call.

Assuming Smith gets over to us, I'm pretty comfortable with where our list is going into next year already. If C Guthrie can get his body right, even better, and if he does I think the couple of years he's had off could even extend his footballing life a little. He might be playing more like a 31yo than a 33yo.

There was a lot of talk about our midfield being a weakness this year, however Champion Data made the point that when Danger came back in we became the #1 team for scoring from stoppage in the AFL. That doesn't sound like midfield weakness to me. Add in Smith and potentially a fit Guthrie, plus another preseason into Holmes, Bruhn, Clark, Knevitt, Clohesy and others, and I think we're in very solid shape.

The fact that we were good when Danger came back in raises the most important issue for me though. He likely only has two seasons left, at most, and he won't play either season in full. So we need to be planning NOW for post-Danger.

We need a big, powerful, contested ball beast. Think Danger, Fyfe, Cripps, LDU, Tom Green. That will be our biggest hole very soon, when we can no longer rely on Danger to fill it.

The problem is that as solid as our midfield lineup looks, there is no obvious replacement for him. He was the best power mid in the game a few years ago, and right now is still formidable for the 12-15 games we can get him on the park. But I don't see any of our other mids being the type to fill that role for us - they're either small scrappers (Atkins, Clark, Clohesy) or runners (Holmes, Smith, Guthrie).

I suspect this was the reason we drafted George Stevens last year, because he looks to be that type, but by all accounts he hardly set the world on fire in the VFL so his future must be questionable. Bruhn often tries to play like a bull, but he's just not big enough to pull it off consistently IMO. Holmes is building impressive strength in his core, but again I don't see him playing the bull role - he's a metres gained type of player. Knevitt has height, but doesn't have the bulk or core strength.

So whatever draft capital we end up with this year, that type of player would be my priority.

The big reason why George Stevens didn't set the VFL on fire is most likely he didn't play in his prefer position in the midfield.. Lets wait and see how he plays when he gets his chance playing there.

 

[cats_09]

The big reason why George Stevens didn't set the VFL on fire is most likely he didn't play in his prefer position in the midfield.. Lets wait and see how he plays when he gets his chance playing there.

George finished 6th in our B&F - so was obviously doing something to impress the coaches

Will be interesting to see how he's utilised next season

 

[foxdog50]

George finished 6th in our B&F - so was obviously doing something to impress the coaches

Will be interesting to see how he's utilised next season

Exactly.. I don't understand what some people expect on what young players who just get drafted to go and play like Nick Daicos etc..

Remember in life, you have to crawl before you can walk

 

[catempire]

Some merit to looking at Martin, and retaining guys like Duncan and Bews, but a bit of underrating the value in some unknown kid at pick 82 or in the rookie draft.

In our prelim team, we had Atkins, J Henry, Zuthrie, Close, & Dempsey all taken as rookies. All those guys will play 100 games, all except Atkins are on track IMO to play 200 (Dempsey you could argue).

We have drafted 14 rookies in the past 8 drafts (12 unknowns plus Crameri & Henderson) so going at ~40% (5 out of 12) for turning non-AFL player rookie picks into good 100+ gamers since we got Henry & Guthrie in 2016. Not convinced that’s achievable long-term but at minimum 20% should be.

List churn is valuable. Three currencies in list management: draft picks, salary cap, list spots.

All good points but we are not short of list spots.