Rumour GFC 2024 Player Trading, Drafting FA, Rumours and Wish lists Pt 3

[cats_09]

Here's 2024 Provisional AFL Draft Order

Cheers to Lore for their hard work in setting this up, and making it available for all users on BF to use and keep track of the picks ahead of the upcoming draft - and please practice patience grasshoppers if it's not updated in the immediate aftermath of completed trade





I'll also sticky this post to ensure it's easily accessible for discussion of our hypothetical trader


Also,

2024 Free Agency Period​

The AFL introduced free agency at the end of the 2012 season, giving players another vehicle where they can transfer from one club to another. Free agency is a common form of player movement in major football and sporting codes around the world.

Free Agency Opens: Friday October 4 at 9.00am
Free Agency Closes: Friday October 11 at 5.00pm

Continental Tyres AFL Trade Period​

Trade Period Opens: Monday October 7 at 9.00am
Trade Period Closes: Wednesday October 16 at 7.30pm

 

[Stan The Caddy]

So if we gave Smith a 7 year deal at $1m+ per annum you still like the trade?

Salary cap flexibility is more valuable than draft picks. Just ask Melbourne.

You and I both know we're not going to do that. That's why it's a win. It's called critical thinking.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Boy O Boy that Richmond draft hand looks very similar to Norfs the past few years and that of the Giants and the Suns of years past.
Gonna be a real messy couple of years for those at Punt Road.

What a shame

 

[Turbocat]

Like all of us, he is trapped by the consequences of his own decisions

You talk funny…. Take responsibility for one own actions? What an antiquated notion...


These players sign for 6 , 8 or longer … then want out and expect it to happen ...

 

[Hamingja]

My over / under on Smith's contract would be $800k pa for 5 years, given we usually like to spread it out over an extra year. We are never going to really know, so if you need to wait until the details are released to judge the trade, you will be waiting a while.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

I could live with that contract. 5 years is too many, but 4 is ok.

But until we know we don’t know.

My point is - everyone gets so much excited about the pick cost but that is the least important cost of the acquisition.

Losing a draft pick will not derail a list building strategy. Signing a player to an albatross contract can.

The threshold for albatross level contract has gone up a lot too. Cap is 17m+ compared to 13m when we last signed a million dollar player and Smith likely isn't getting that.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

My over / under on Smith's contract would be $800k pa for 5 years, given we usually like to spread it out over an extra year. We are never going to really know, so if you need to wait until the details are released to judge the trade, you will be waiting a while.

I'd go up to a million purely on the 35% cap inflation

 

[CatToTheFuture]

I like it when a player coming in has a highlights package that's a big longer than the usual 2-3 minutes cuts of him kicking goals.

So here's 20 straight minutes of Bailey Smith

6

Bailey Smith

Age

23

Ht

185cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.3

5star

K

8.5

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

3.8

5star

CL

2.7

4star

D

19.8

5star

K

9.6

4star

HB

10.2

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.2

4star

CL

3.2

4star

D

14.8

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

7.2

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.4

5star

CL

1.6

4star

highlights

 

[cats_09]

It is 700 id take 5 for no issue. The way the sal cap is moving … it may be that every club has several 1m dollar player soon.

Brayshaw for example… might demand 1.3 next year as a Free Agent… crazy numbers. I think 5 is about as far as id want to go. Think we did 5 for Cameron.

Dangerfield was a 6-year signing

Cameron was 5-years with a trigger for a 6th - so while he is techincally OOC at the end of next season, I don’t see a situation where he isn’t extended by 1 or 2 years

 

[Kobe Gryant]

It's what I think MIGHT happen, as we are one of the teams most in need of another KPF - and Tigers are a near guarantee to grab Armstrong, IMO.

Another huge guess, but I reckon it could work out maybe something like this:

Tigers swap 10, 11 and 23 for Pick 2 (North) and a Future 3rd
Tigers swap 18 to us for Future 1st (Geelong live trade)

Tigers go in with Picks 1, 2, 6, 20, 24. Tigers won't bid on Ashcroft due to their handshake, so unfortunately he makes it to Pick 3, Blues.

Pick 1 (Richmond) - Jagga Smith
Pick 2 (Richmond) - Sam Lalor
Pick 3 (Brisbane) Carlton bid matched - Levi Ashcroft
Pick 4 (Carlton) - Finn O'Sullivan
Pick 5 (Adelaide) - Sid Draper
Pick 6 (Melbourne) - Harvey Langford
Pick 7 (Richmond) - Harry Armstrong
Pick 8 (Essendon) St Kilda bid matched - Isaac Kako
Pick 9 (St Kilda) - Alix Tauru
Pick 10 (St Kilda) - Josh Smillie
Pick 11 (Gold Coast) - Melbourne bid matched - Leo Lombard
Pick 12 (Melbourne) - Toby Travaglia
Pick 13 (North Melbourne) - Murphy Reid
Pick 14 (North Melbourne) - Luke Trainor
Pick 15 (West Coast) - Bo Allan
Pick 16 (Port Adelaide) - Jobe Shanahan
Pick 17 (Fremantle) - Xavier Lindsay
Pick 18 (GWS) - Taj Hotton
Pick 19 (GWS) - Cooper Hynes
Pick 20 (Brisbane) Bulldogs bid matched - Sam Marshall
Pick 21 (Bulldogs) - Joe Berry
Pick 22 (Geelong) Richmond live trade swap with our Future 1st - Jack Whitlock

Like I said, just a random forecast of how it could shake out that way. Very few teams actually need another developing key forward. Only us, Brisbane (no picks), Collingwood (no picks), Melbourne (could choose Armstrong over Langford causing the Tigers to choose Whitlock, but Langford feels like such a Melbourne pick, that it wouldn't surprise if it worked out that way). They've also got Jefferson developing too, so feels like a 'best available' sort of pick rather than anything concrete.

Whitlock just makes sense for us. If we can finish Top 8 in a compromised draft next year, and land a free agent for actually nothing this time around, then it ticks multiple boxes. Risk attached for us with very little for Richmond, as Pick 22 for at worst Pick 22 next year if we somehow snuck a flag, is pretty good business. Could be a Top 10 pick, so there'd be no reason for them to be concerned at that number.

See what happens, but it's fun to forecast

I'm just dreaming of that LDU, Smith, & Holmes midfield.

A million to one right now, but just make it happen Cats. We deserve a free agent for 'free' for once.

 

[Hamingja]

I'd go up to a million purely on the 35% cap inflation

Just the way we manage the cap carefully I could see say 900k over 4 becoming 800k over 5

 

[CatToTheFuture]

I'm just dreaming of that LDU, Smith, & Holmes midfield.

A million to one right now, but just make it happen Cats. We deserve a free agent for 'free' for once.

I do think we need that big boy type to add. LDU ideal.

 

[year of the cat]

Its early and he may be gone…. but Im sure they will have a group of names … and it would not surprise in the draft that some slips thru

Jobe Shanahan is one I’d give consideration to trading back in for.

 

[Footy Smarts]

If Cadman is a realistic shot (clearly we're trying) then I'd lean against paying up big for an 18 year old key forward that will need 3-4 years to impact.

A young key forward won't impact for 2-3 years even if they work out. And by then we'll be aiming to bring in Cadman with Neale, Henry x2, SDK and COS all versatile talls with many years left.

Not saying we avoid getting a key forward if they're best available I just wouldn't actively target one.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

I do think we need that big boy type to add. LDU ideal.

Yep, we're getting there, but still need that third A-grade mid to really get to where we want to be.

Hopefully we've got two now, and a big-bodied clearance mid would be the perfect finishing touch as Danger rides into the sunset.

Just got to hope Norf really suck again and he's swayed by success.

Strikes me as the loyal type though, so we'll wait and see.

 

[Munich]

Welcome home Baz

 

[Strange Cat]

Like all of us, he is trapped by the consequences of his own decisions

At least he has a tidy contract to cry into …but geez it’s not going to be fun for him next year

 

[ShadowCat]

I like it when a player coming in has a highlights package that's a big longer than the usual 2-3 minutes cuts of him kicking goals.

So here's 20 straight minutes of Bailey Smith highlights

Cheers for the share mate, great vision!

Few thoughts:

Video is only 10 minutes, it repeats halfway through with some weird music, haha.
I don't know what the f*ck Dogs supporters are talking about. Yeah he can butcher it sometimes, but there was some absolutely elite kicking in that highlights package.
He can kick it 50+ with ease, and his burst running is much more consistent/faster than I thought
He handles big moments well, and wants them
Different player, but definitely has elements of Danger - and will be a friggin' formidable pairing with Holmes next year

 

[Pure_Ownage]

To me Hotton screams Wells… he was in the discussion for top ten …then he did his knee. ..so do take the risk. Watching Ashcroft sort tells me that its probably something worth considering…

..but really we dont even know if we can get a trade yet.. If it doesnt happen then maybe we go the next clip… someon in that next group ..and we trade our future R2 for something in the middle. Clubs up north will want R1s and r2..cause R3’s and back are worth less ..

I think hotton will go in the late top ten early teens-my tip is melb or Richmond. He will gone before about 15 which is the earliest we could realistically trade back in.

 

[BlakeyNoFlakey]

ep, we're getting there, but still need that third A-grade mid to really get to where we want to be.

Zack Butters next year.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Cheers for the share mate, great vision!

Few thoughts:

Video is only 10 minutes, it repeats halfway through with some weird music, haha.
I don't know what the f*ck Dogs supporters are talking about. Yeah he can butcher it sometimes, but there was some absolutely elite kicking in that highlights package.
He can kick it 50+ with ease, and his burst running is much more consistent/faster than I thought
He handles big moments well, and wants them
Different player, but definitely has elements of Danger - and will be a friggin' formidable pairing with Holmes next year

I didn't even get to the mid way point before I got excited and posted it

But yeah there is a lot to be excited about there

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Yep, we're getting there, but still need that third A-grade mid to really get to where we want to be.

Hopefully we've got two now, and a big-bodied clearance mid would be the perfect finishing touch as Danger rides into the sunset.

Just got to hope Norf really suck again and he's swayed by success.

Strikes me as the loyal type though, so we'll wait and see.

Must be why danger wanted 2 years, so he can say he played with the greatest cats player of all time Harley Reid

 

[Kobe Gryant]

Must be why danger wanted 2 years, so he can say he played with the greatest cats player of all time Harley Reid

That's a funny way of spelling Lawson Humphries

 

[cats_09]

 

[ShadowCat]

SO this is how our best 30+ is looking for next year - gee what an improvement already (all 3 of Danger, Smith and Holmes won't play at once, just looks better that way):

B: Zuthrie, SDK, J. Henry
HB: T. Stewart, Kolo, L. Humphries
C: Dempsey, Danger, Blics
FO: Conway, Holmes, B. Smith
HF: O. Henry, J. Cameron, Miers
F: Stengle, S. Neale, Close
INT: Mannagh, Bruhn, C. Guthrie, J. Martin
Sub: Bowes

Depth: T. Atkins, Duncan, Stanley, Knevitt, Clohesy, J. Clark, Mullin, C. O'Sullivan, Bews, O'Connor,

Only Furphy, Wiltshire, Edwards and Stevens as players who haven't played an AFL game, left. Excited for next year, but think that'll do me until the draft.

Be well all, and happy Bailey Smith

6

Bailey Smith

Age

23

Ht

185cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.3

5star

K

8.5

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

3.8

5star

CL

2.7

4star

D

19.8

5star

K

9.6

4star

HB

10.2

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.2

4star

CL

3.2

4star

D

14.8

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

7.2

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.4

5star

CL

1.6

4star

night!

 

[Gee Class Loco]

Everyone is applauding. I don’t get it at all. They just moved out 4 of the best 5 players on their list out. There is f all talent left, outside of Taranto, Hopper, Lynch and Balta. The majority of their picks are in that danger zone, where if draft evals don’t plan out, youre left with a whole crop of Billie smedts type players. History has proven time and time again, you can’t blow a list up and expect a group of 1st or 2nd yr players to shoulder the load. It will be 4-5 years before they are competitive, and that’s if they nail picks, and not screw their development by expecting too much too soon.

This x10.
Well said.