Club Focus Gold Coast SUNS 2023

[Chris25]

Data from footywire. To check the draft order see the thread here.

Footywire says: "While we make every effort to keep up to date with player contracts, it is likely that our data may at times be out of date, incomplete or inaccurate. If you find any player contracts that need updating, please let us know using our brand new contract submission form."

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Try telling the AFL media who believe the frontrunners are the Dogs & Swans because they have more points this season to offer, its just laughable.

It's clear that any deal that the Suns make for pick 4 will be to increase their hand in next year's draft and the shortfall made up by trading fringe players or a future 2nd.

Why trade a top 5 pick purely for points when you can just trade a future 2nd and cover the shortfall, should tag Ralphy and Twomey in this.

The only other option would be to trade up from pick 4 to pick 2 to get ahead of a bid for Walter.

I was going to include a Dogs blurb but I thought the essay I put together was long enough anyway. I think the two Dogs picks are a minimum acceptable option if they cant get a future first from any of those clubs (possible). I think it's lazy from GC if that happens though. GWS will jump at the chance to move up, they love getting as high as possible and some team should be very willing to trade a future 1st for a top 10 pick this year.

Twomey's gettable chat on it a few weeks ago was very annoying / disappointing from someone who's normally good at that stuff. Especially since Beveridge broached the idea of mainly trading it to next year and he shut it down

 

[Maybe Tomorrow]

Which is why, despite what some GC fans in here say, pick #2 will be by far the best offer they get.

It might also be the last chance GC get access to a top 3 midfielder in a while.

Next year is a midfielder heavy draft, one of which is GCS academy player Lombard. Suns are trading out a midfielder this year and drafting in another in Rogers. If they desperately want another one it will be much easier to get ahead of a bid on Lombard.

There are also several academy mid's in the 2025 draft tracking well.

IF the Suns trade up it's for Watson or Curtin, not a midfielder.

 

[Sphynx]

Next year is a midfielder heavy draft, one of which is GCS academy player Lombard. Suns are trading out a midfielder this year and drafting in another in Rogers. If they desperately want another one it will be much easier to get ahead of a bid on Lombard.

There are also several academy mid's in the 2025 draft tracking well.

IF the Suns trade up it's for Watson or Curtin, not a midfielder.

Lombard is more Rogers than McKercher though.

 

[Maybe Tomorrow]

Lombard is more Rogers than McKercher though.

Maybe, but Lombard is playing VFL as a 16 year old so he must have something about him. And won't cost what McKercher would in draft capital.

 

[SnowRoo]

Next year is a midfielder heavy draft, one of which is GCS academy player Lombard. Suns are trading out a midfielder this year and drafting in another in Rogers. If they desperately want another one it will be much easier to get ahead of a bid on Lombard.

There are also several academy mid's in the 2025 draft tracking well.

IF the Suns trade up it's for Watson or Curtin, not a midfielder.

Next year's heavy mid component may be a reason North consider using their F1 here.

Already heavy with mids, add in Reid, McKercher, Sanders no way we want a mid in 24.

GC pick opens options for a KPP or small forward both required by North.

Throw in Hollands I'd think it's a win/win done deal.

 

[Makeshift Park]

Next year is a midfielder heavy draft

This is one of the reasons I reckon North should trade out its F1 imo.

Tho I can also see why its gonna be hard to come up with an offer that GC want.

 

[Sphynx]

This is one of the reasons I reckon North should trade out its F1 imo.

Tho I can also see why its gonna be hard to come up with an offer that GC want.

lol.

Oh, you are serious.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

This is one of the reasons I reckon North should trade out its F1 imo.

Tho I can also see why its gonna be hard to come up with an offer that GC want.

I mean, if North want to trade their future 1st straight up for the GC first this year, they should jump at it

 

[Sphynx]

I mean, if North want to trade their future 1st straight up for the GC first this year, they should jump at it

Exactly. West Coast and North’s F1 are just about the crown jewell of what anyone would want if trying to trade out of this draft.

There’d need to be something decent added to it imo, given that Gold Coasts pick is a chance to be at 6.

 

[FB19]

Next year is a midfielder heavy draft, one of which is GCS academy player Lombard. Suns are trading out a midfielder this year and drafting in another in Rogers. If they desperately want another one it will be much easier to get ahead of a bid on Lombard.

There are also several academy mid's in the 2025 draft tracking well.

IF the Suns trade up it's for Watson or Curtin, not a midfielder.

That’s why hawks f1 on the table. Especially if we take McKercher at 3 we would do the deal and take Duursma or Watson.

 

[SnowRoo]

Exactly. West Coast and North’s F1 are just about the crown jewell of what anyone would want if trying to trade out of this draft.

There’d need to be something decent added to it imo, given that Gold Coasts pick is a chance to be at 6.

Flanders would be the cherry on top, but I think Hollands would be the lesser but more agreeable option.

 

[Maybe Tomorrow]

Flanders would be the cherry on top, but I think Hollands would be the lesser but more agreeable option.

Seems like Hollands is going.

Flanders has always seemed very invested in the club. The hope would be Dimma can convince him to stay. Sounds like his issue with Dew was role/opportunity rather than being unhappy on the GC.

 

[Makeshift Park]

Exactly. West Coast and North’s F1 are just about the crown jewell of what anyone would want if trying to trade out of this draft.

Look I was trying to be diplomatic with the GC gang, okay?

Flanders would be the cherry on top, but I think Hollands would be the lesser but more agreeable option.

Happy to be corrected, and maybe my maths are wrong here, but if GC lost Hollands to North as part of a F1 deal, and Flanders stayed (or vice-versa), wouldn't they be looking at a points deficit equivalent to pick 8 or something?

Just looking at the Snuffaluphagus table above - don't they enter 2024 with pick 2, their own pick, and somewhere around a 1700 point deficit?

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Look I was trying to be diplomatic with the GC gang, okay?



Happy to be corrected, and maybe my maths are wrong here, but if GC lost Hollands to North as part of a F1 deal, and Flanders stayed (or vice-versa), wouldn't they be looking at a points deficit equivalent to pick 8 or something?

Just looking at the Snuffaluphagus table above - don't they enter 2024 with pick 2, their own pick, and somewhere around a 1700 point deficit?

Yeah, this is the problem, aside from North being a bit silly doing it, GC need SOME points from their pick and definitely need the points from Flanders or Hollands. If North put up their pick, it would have to be a straight swap or GC cant really do it and that seems EXTREMELY unwise for North

 

[Makeshift Park]

Yeah, this is the problem, aside from North being a bit silly doing it, GC need SOME points from their pick and definitely need the points from Flanders or Hollands. If North put up their pick, it would have to be a straight swap or GC cant really do it and that seems EXTREMELY unwise for North

Maybe something like Caleb Graham to North (where he’d basically be guaranteed game time), and Hollands to a third club could balance the ledger.

 

[Iva Bigun]

Alright, we have most of the information, lets deep dive this because it's pretty much the only thing that looks like happening this offseason. Some assumptions first with not everything quite worked out:
1) GC are losing/moving on one of Flanders or Hollands. An uncontracted Flanders with how he's playing is getting at least pick 20 in points. Hollands is contracted and is getting at least pick 20 points.
2) GC do not NEED more points and they do not want lots of picks for points
3) There is a clear top 6 talent bracket of Reid, Curtin, Watson, Duursma, McKercher and Walter that you need a top 6 pick on draft night to get.
4) North and WC have put up a tent down the bottom of the ladder and arent silly enough to trade a future 1st for a pick this year in the 4-6 range
5) The AFL will give North Sanders not apply secret herbs to bump McKay compo up a bracket now they have pick 1
6) The 4th academy kid can be paid for with scraps, not worth taking into consideration
7) GC can take 6 list spots (their current draft picks after removing the 4ths) into the draft easily
8) Where Freo and GC finish after the weekend doesnt actually affect much

So we currently stand like this
View attachment 1781091

771 is absurdly easy to make up so the overwhelming best way to get value is to move the pick to next year as much as possible short of getting in an elite player that frankly, they just cant do. The number 1 priority is getting as much value for next year as possible

You'd have more luck winning lotto then guessing the order of 16th through to 5th next so you have to just put the future 1sts into brackets. Top bracket future 1sts for mine are Hawks, Freo, Essendon and Richmond who are either really young and not guaranteed to improve, terrible form or looking at the edge of a very large cliff (Adelaide are close to this bracket but just good enough this year to be out of it). My first priority is grabbing one of their future 1sts and I'd argue they can do that even if they fall out of that top 6 pick bracket.

First move for GC is to move down a spot, GWS with Richmonds (assuming pick 7 after a Walter bid) first will jump at this.
4, 56 -> 7, future 2nd, 49. Now who is willing to pay for a pick 7 of those clubs I mentioned?

Essendon: If Parish leaves, do they need a 3rd top 10 pick at the expense of one next year? I doubt it. If he stays, I think they'd go for it.
Hawks: Maybe, but they do have their first this year and I dont think they are in any rush to gut next year at the risk of a few key players getting injured and staying bottom 4
Richmond: No first round pick, seem confident they can bounce back quickly given the picks up last year. Probably pretty motivated for this pick
Freo: Basically the same as Richmond but with the disclaimer maybe they'd want to keep the pick for next year since they dont want more kids and are targetting a big name

The trade with any of these guys is basically about pick 25 in points and a future 1st, so now the calculation looks like this. PLUS they head into draft night with 2 future 1sts, 2 future 2nds and some extra future 4ths for the picks they already parked. Plenty of room to move more points this year on draft night if bids go terribly.
View attachment 1781127

Excellent analysis Snuff

 

[Iva Bigun]

Flanders would be the cherry on top, but I think Hollands would be the lesser but more agreeable option.

A very expensive cherry, Ned is worth a pick in the teens by himself
Trade pick 4 to the highest bidder for a future first and some points coming back this year. And sell Ned and or Hollands only if they want to go

Or split it into 2x 1st this year if we have quality players looking to come to the club.

 

[Iva Bigun]

Maybe something like Caleb Graham to North (where he’d basically be guaranteed game time), and Hollands to a third club could balance the ledger.

So the Suns give up pick 4 and Graham for Norths future 1st? Then let Hollands go another club to get the point deficit back for this year?

Don’t hate it but again we don’t need another mid and we are taking all the risk.

 

[Sphynx]

So the Suns give up pick 4 and Graham for Norths future 1st? Then let Hollands go another club to get the point deficit back for this year?

Don’t hate it but again we don’t need another mid and we are taking all the risk.

Yeah, I’m not doing that either.

It’s not going to be Pick 4 either.

High likelihood of being Pick 6 for a top 3 pick.

No thanks. Would take a lot more than Graham as a make weight between those two pick ranges to get our F1 imo.

 

[Iva Bigun]

Yeah, I’m not doing that either.

It’s not going to be Pick 4 either.

High likelihood of being Pick 6 for a top 3 pick.

No thanks. Would take a lot more than Graham as a make weight between those two pick ranges to get our F1 imo.

Are you assuming you’ll get pick 2 as compo? You could be very disappointed

 

[Sphynx]

Are you assuming you’ll get pick 2 as compo? You could be very disappointed

It’s nothing to do with compo.

I’m talking about our future 1st.

In terms of your selection, if you beat us on the weekend, you will probably end up with Pick 5, with the Walter bid that makes it Pick 6.

If there’s McKay compo, it’s potentially an even worse Pick 7.

If it did end up Pick 7, anyone offering that for a potential #1 or #2 future pick would have to be offering in another F1 imo.

 

[Iva Bigun]

It’s nothing to do with compo.

I’m talking about our future 1st.

Ahh, my mistake

Yes I agree with you, if I was North I wouldn't do that either. Unless as has been stated it’s a heavy midfielder draft next year.

 

[Obeanie1]

Pick 4 and extras for

Eagles pick 2.

Suns get a free hit before any bids OR North bid and risk Harley! North isnt bidding on Walters.

So what extra is thrown in for the Eagles?

Sounds like Eagles are happy with any one of Curtin, Watson, Duursma or McKercher. Two will still be there unless the AFL hand North the biggest leg up in history.

1 Reid North
2 Watson Suns
3 Walters bid Suns
4 Duursma Hawks
5 Eagles ? Curtin, McKercher?

What extra would the Suns throw in?

 

[Mostyn]

Why not the Crows F1 and 20 and 24 for the GCS pick?

 

[Makeshift Park]

Yeah, I’m not doing that either.

It’s not going to be Pick 4 either.

High likelihood of being Pick 6 for a top 3 pick.

No thanks. Would take a lot more than Graham as a make weight between those two pick ranges to get our F1 imo.

We obviously need to see who wins out of Freo and the Hawks this weekend to get a full appreciation of what the top of the draft looks like before teams can have confidence where the GC pick will land.

If Freo win, then there would be a reasonable chance the top of the draft looks like this:

North - Reid
North (Mckay compo) - Curtin
GC - Walter (match WC)
WC - McKercher
Hawthorn - Duursma

If the proposition is Nick Watson and Caleb Graham for our F1, I'd do that trade.