Club Focus Gold Coast SUNS 2023

[Chris25]

Data from footywire. To check the draft order see the thread here.

Footywire says: "While we make every effort to keep up to date with player contracts, it is likely that our data may at times be out of date, incomplete or inaccurate. If you find any player contracts that need updating, please let us know using our brand new contract submission form."

 

[Deleted member 2402071]

Could see something like this playing out

Hawthorn trade Pick 3 + Brockman to West Coast for pick 2 and informing the eagles they wont select Curtin.

Hawthorn ontrade pick 2 to the Suns for Pick 4 and the suns future first.

Enables the Suns to grab a player ahead of a potential bid for Walter.

It’s not sustainable for us taking 4 x rd 1 picks this year. As mentioned it creates a future salary cap squeeze.

Our academy finally producing multiple Rd1 picks is a massive help though. Don’t need to overpay them to stay, less likely to be poached. Win/win.

I’m guessing pick 4 will more likely be split into later Rd1 & 2 picks to be used for bids/players.

 

[Shinboner roo]

Would happily give up our future 1st for the Suns pick 4

 

[SnowRoo]

Would happily give up our future 1st for the Suns pick 4

+ Hollands

 

[Caligo]

I wonder if Hawthorn or GC would be interested in 4 for future first? Hawthorn could potentially even take a salary dump player as part of the deal.

 

[Caligo]

Would happily give up our future 1st for the Suns pick 4

That seems like a really balanced deal for both sides from my perspective.

 

[Scotty_222]

That seems like a really balanced deal for both sides from my perspective.

Sounds good

 

[tombomb]

No offence, that’s a horrible deal for the following reasons

It doesn’t guarantee the Eagles don’t bid so potential we gain nothing

We have enough points to cover all our draftees and don’t need more picks for which we have to have list spots for when going to the draft. We will already be bringing in at least 3 gun local draftees

Pick 4 is going to get us a haul but you’re suggesting sell it AND a future first to move up 2 spots. That’s crazy

I think there was a chance Gold Coast try to trade up when West Coast had pick 1. I think that is gone now.

 

[Iva Bigun]

I wonder if Hawthorn or GC would be interested in 4 for future first? Hawthorn could potentially even take a salary dump player as part of the deal.

We have corrected our cap, ripped that Band-Aid off last year.

 

[Dockeroo]

I wonder if Hawthorn or GC would be interested in 4 for future first? Hawthorn could potentially even take a salary dump player as part of the deal.

Fremantle should be in the mix with their F1 too which could be a top 5 pick in 2024.
I think at this stage if a club is not willing to put an F1 on the table they won’t be in the running

 

[Sphynx]

McKay compo pick will determine a lot of this.

Can definitely see this being their focus.

Will be interesting to see what is thrown up.

GWS traded their R1 and F1 in a similar situation with Tom Green

12

Tom Green

Age

23

Ht

192cm

Wt

92kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.5

3star

K

4.3

2star

HB

7.3

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.3

4star

CL

2.8

4star

D

11.5

3star

K

4.3

2star

HB

7.3

4star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.3

3star

CL

2.8

4star

D

11.5

3star

K

4.3

2star

HB

7.3

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.3

4star

CL

2.8

5star

.

#5 and Flanders/F1 would be too enticing I would think.

They are essentially just banking their F1 into 2023 in that scenario.

 

[Caligo]

We have corrected our cap, ripped that Band-Aid off last year.

I don't disagree, I just thought there might still be some deadwood that could sweeten the deal for GC. I actually thought 4 for hawthorn's future first isn't too far off the mark already though. What do you think?

 

[mattwa]

Hoping we move up and grab Watson with this pick. Given our slide our picks are becoming more appealing

 

[Maybe Tomorrow]

Hoping we move up and grab Watson with this pick. Given our slide our picks are becoming more appealing

IMO trading for your two first's is the best move. Could throw in Hollands if you like.

Then the Suns can trade one pick into next year or for a player and use the other for bid matching.

 

[mattwa]

IMO trading for your two first's is the best move. Could throw in Hollands if you like.

Then the Suns can trade one pick into next year or for a player and use the other for bid matching.

Would love Flanders if he was going. But I agree it makes the most sense for everyone

 

[Maybe Tomorrow]

Would love Flanders if he was going. But I agree it makes the most sense for everyone

He'd be a great signing for the Dog's. Suns want to keep him, expect it'll become clear soon after Dimma is announced.

 

[Crow till I die]

McKay compo pick will determine a lot of this.

Can definitely see this being their focus.

Will be interesting to see what is thrown up.

GWS traded their R1 and F1 in a similar situation with Tom Green.

#5 and Flanders/F1 would be too enticing I would think.

They are essentially just banking their F1 into 2023 in that scenario.

Yeah - they did that so they could take ASH THEN get green - so they got 2 x top 10 picked players in the same draft - so 2 x 1sts ended up being 2 x top 10 players

 

[Sphynx]

Yeah - they did that so they could take ASH THEN get green - so they got 2 x top 10 picked players in the same draft - so 2 x 1sts ended up being 2 x top 10 players

Which is exactly what I’ve proposed.

If they do the trade they get Walter AND McKercher, they don’t get just 2 x top 10 picks, but 2 x top 3 picks.

 

[Jirik13]

Which is exactly what I’ve proposed.

If they do the trade they get Walter AND McKercher, they don’t get just 2 x top 10 picks, but 2 x top 3 picks.

Suns are already getting 3 first round picks plus probably another academy player in round 2. For sure that's enough injection of top talent to already loaded list. Otherwise, it's revolving door development due to cap pressure down the track and lack of opportunity to play regularly.

In 2024, Suns will probably have another R1 academy player (and R2 player probably too). In 2025 it could be repeat of 2023. Having 30-50% of the list made up of academy players should provide stability in every aspect.

Hopefully, Dimma can use a pick or two on top mature talent to shore up the list in next 12-18 months. Playing finals next year would help.

 

[Iva Bigun]

I don't disagree, I just thought there might still be some deadwood that could sweeten the deal for GC. I actually thought 4 for hawthorn's future first isn't too far off the mark already though. What do you think?

We have sucked at trading futures. Never come close to even let alone a win. We bare all the risk in your scenario so It’s a no from me, I would want a sweetener but who knows what the club will do.

 

[Caligo]

We have sucked at trading futures. Never come close to even let alone a win. We bare all the risk in your scenario so It’s a no from me, I would want a sweetener but who knows what the club will do.

Fair enough, just curious what someone from the other side thought about it.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Alright, we have most of the information, lets deep dive this because it's pretty much the only thing that looks like happening this offseason. Some assumptions first with not everything quite worked out:
1) GC are losing/moving on one of Flanders or Hollands. An uncontracted Flanders with how he's playing is getting at least pick 20 in points. Hollands is contracted and is getting at least pick 20 points.
2) GC do not NEED more points and they do not want lots of picks for points
3) There is a clear top 6 talent bracket of Reid, Curtin, Watson, Duursma, McKercher and Walter that you need a top 6 pick on draft night to get.
4) North and WC have put up a tent down the bottom of the ladder and arent silly enough to trade a future 1st for a pick this year in the 4-6 range
5) The AFL will give North Sanders not apply secret herbs to bump McKay compo up a bracket now they have pick 1
6) The 4th academy kid can be paid for with scraps, not worth taking into consideration
7) GC can take 6 list spots (their current draft picks after removing the 4ths) into the draft easily
8) Where Freo and GC finish after the weekend doesnt actually affect much

So we currently stand like this


771 is absurdly easy to make up so the overwhelming best way to get value is to move the pick to next year as much as possible short of getting in an elite player that frankly, they just cant do. The number 1 priority is getting as much value for next year as possible

You'd have more luck winning lotto then guessing the order of 16th through to 5th next so you have to just put the future 1sts into brackets. Top bracket future 1sts for mine are Hawks, Freo, Essendon and Richmond who are either really young and not guaranteed to improve, terrible form or looking at the edge of a very large cliff (Adelaide are close to this bracket but just good enough this year to be out of it). My first priority is grabbing one of their future 1sts and I'd argue they can do that even if they fall out of that top 6 pick bracket.

First move for GC is to move down a spot, GWS with Richmonds (assuming pick 7 after a Walter bid) first will jump at this.
4, 56 -> 7, future 2nd, 49. Now who is willing to pay for a pick 7 of those clubs I mentioned?

Essendon: If Parish leaves, do they need a 3rd top 10 pick at the expense of one next year? I doubt it. If he stays, I think they'd go for it.
Hawks: Maybe, but they do have their first this year and I dont think they are in any rush to gut next year at the risk of a few key players getting injured and staying bottom 4
Richmond: No first round pick, seem confident they can bounce back quickly given the picks up last year. Probably pretty motivated for this pick
Freo: Basically the same as Richmond but with the disclaimer maybe they'd want to keep the pick for next year since they dont want more kids and are targetting a big name

The trade with any of these guys is basically about pick 25 in points and a future 1st, so now the calculation looks like this. PLUS they head into draft night with 2 future 1sts, 2 future 2nds and some extra future 4ths for the picks they already parked. Plenty of room to move more points this year on draft night if bids go terribly.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

TLDR: Suns want a future 1st from Richmond, Essendon, Freo or the Hawks =)

 

[Sphynx]

TLDR: Suns want a future 1st from Richmond, Essendon, Freo or the Hawks =)

Which is why, despite what some GC fans in here say, pick #2 will be by far the best offer they get.

It might also be the last chance GC get access to a top 3 midfielder in a while.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Which is why, despite what some GC fans in here say, pick #2 will be by far the best offer they get.

I'm still adamant it's not worth it for them for all the reasons discussed previously but:
1) If North have it (McKay compo), why should you dilute what you have when you have so much, it's unnecessary
2) If WC have it (no McKay compo), there is some justification here if they are sure the player they want will be there. There is a lot of list spots to fill with currently insufficient picks

I dont see how GC get up to pick 2 without giving up a future 1st and would still need to find some more points for this year. I'm positive that's not good asset management.

 

[A1fromDay1]

Hawks future 1st and current 2nd tied to the dogs pick 29 for Pick 4 and 56.

Gives the suns the shortfall they require this year and banks in a probable top 5 pick next year.