Werewolf Gralin's good old fashioned home cooked Werewolf - Mafia Wins!

[Footypie32]

Yeah, I'm going to get on the Michaels vote.

Apparently I have a great chance at hitting evil according to the man himself.

Gralin

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

Freddy wahwah thanks Gralin

 

[thewizardmelon]

Lead the charge for people to not vote for Bonce given he was clearly a villager.

If i stunk i would have just tagged onto the vote and blended in with the rest of the crowd.

Go back and look at the pile in on bonce and some of the byplay in between, some clear cut choices here.

Yeah your play so far feels a bit uneven, I also don’t get why you’re defending bonce to the enth degree. Spidey sense going off.

Michaels thanks Gralin

 

[MC Bad Genius]

I'm fishing because im a villager. I'd hope the vig doesn't stick their neck out to ask whete the amulet is ...

Imagine if the poor vig hits the amulet tonight because the 'good' villagers kept it hidden for no reason?

If the poor vig hits the amulet tonight, they'll just have another missed kill. I'm not sure that's as bad as you make it out to be.

 

[Frederico_WA]

Roles left:
4x mafia
3x wolves
1x SK
1x Seer
1x RB
1x Vig
1x Doc
2x flog
4x villagers

ALIVE
dank420_
thewizardmelon
jmoo wan
Pie 4 Life
BEaston
Cadsky
Frederico_WA
MP_
Nothing
RU_
Kurve
myblueroan
Grand Uncle Horace
King Tenz
MC Bad Genius
Barrybran
Michaels
Footypie32

DEAD
Dingster (wolf)
Ocha905 (flog)
BFew (villager)
boncer34 (villager) lynched D1
CursingFijian (villager)
MarcMaverick (villager)

 

[Frederico_WA]

If the poor vig hits the amulet tonight, they'll just have another missed kill. I'm not sure that's as bad as you make it out to be.

I'm mindful that of the 6 deaths so far, only 1 is not village. Vig needs to kill (and hit true) to give us a chance.

 

[Nothing]

Hey, RU_ are you playing or are you evil?

 

[Nothing]

Roles left:
4x mafia
3x wolves
1x SK
1x Seer
1x RB
1x Vig
1x Doc
2x flog
4x villagers

ALIVE
dank420_
thewizardmelon
jmoo wan
Pie 4 Life
BEaston
Cadsky
Frederico_WA
MP_
Nothing
RU_
Kurve
myblueroan
Grand Uncle Horace
King Tenz
MC Bad Genius
Barrybran
Michaels
Footypie32

DEAD
Dingster (wolf)
Ocha905 (flog)
BFew (villager)
boncer34 (villager) lynched D1
CursingFijian (villager)
MarcMaverick (villager)

Without 3KZ we have nobody to point out #ListerTheory


So if someone seers as villager, there is a 42% chance they are night immune. Running out of places for GF, alpha and SK to hide.

 

[Pie 4 Life]

Hey, RU_ are you playing or are you evil?

Caught my eye yesterday as one who stood out through absence.

 

[Michaels]

Yeah your play so far feels a bit uneven, I also don’t get why you’re defending bonce to the enth degree. Spidey sense going off.

Michaels thanks Gralin

just throwing out what looked very obvious to be a bored villager, not much more to it!

the fact people are seeing that as a negative is incredible.

 

[Frederico_WA]

Caught my eye yesterday as one who stood out through absence.

He loves WW, but loves his muscles more

 

[thewizardmelon]

just throwing out what looked very obvious to be a bored villager, not much more to it!

the fact people are seeing that as a negative is incredible.

Fair point. So where are you biggest suspicions right now?

 

[Kurve]

Get a bit of sirracha in there as well and I'd almost consider changing my vote off you.

Kurve thanks, Gralin.

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

Good afternoon Cadsky whenever you rock up.

 

[Michaels]

Fair point. So where are you biggest suspicions right now?

like I mentioned earlier, I know I haven't played this in a while so I'm probably reverting to strategies and reads I used from years ago, and potentially times have changed and I haven't kept up, but I was just looking back at the pile onto Boncer.

I think it's reasonable to say that any logical thinker could see that Bonce was just taking the piss and being a bored villager, the chances of an SK role reveal Day 1 with no pressure is less than 1% I would guess, so there was no logic believing the claim.

Granted he can be a bit of a loose unit ha ha.

Then the pile on started.

traditionally that is an easy escape route for evil to blend in when the vote is heavily weighted.

red flags for me in that pile on were:

-people who posted literally with just the word boncer bolded or with very minimal context or effort.
-people who said that bonce is likely a bored villager, but I'm going to vote him anyway.

Couple the above with the death of Fiji after he pointed the finger at 2 players (granted yes framing is always a possibility) and BEaston just ticked a few boxes so rolling the dice.

Kurve is another who just chipped in with a 1 word vote very close to deadline.



Unfortunately this early in the game we obviously don't have much to go off, so just trying to piece it together as best I can.


What will be interesting is if the beast lynch goes ahead and he flips evil like Fiji sensed and my red flags indicate, there is a select few who have been very subtle in fighting a good battle for him to steer the vote elsewhere that will heavily tie them to beast IF he flips evil.

Which would be a huge leg up for the village and give us some easy lynch targets.

And if the lynch does get shifted elsewhere I'd still be paying very close attention to those players as well as it seems a bit of a collective effort.

 

[RU_]

Hey, RU_ are you playing or are you evil?

I’m playing.

Had to go to site today as my scheduled contractors weren’t let on site.

 

[Nothing]

So Vig, we seered BEaston and they came back villager. If you happened to hit them as well, then they are definitely the right lynch today. If you didn't hit BEaston, we're getting close to a 50/50 on evil.

MBR, thanks for the amulet. Unless someone else pops their head up, I'll be passing it to the other flog.

After losing Ocha early, we thought it best to lay low for a little while. If nobody else sticks their head up, Doc please protect me tonight.

 

[myblueroan]

Without 3KZ we have nobody to point out #ListerTheory


So if someone seers as villager, there is a 42% chance they are night immune. Running out of places for GF, alpha and SK to hide.

But you have to admit, it would be a clever evil ploy to run a list now everyone asserts only village ever does it?

 

[Nothing]

But you have to admit, it would be a clever evil ploy to run a list now everyone asserts only village ever does it?

I thought the theory was evil did it to show they were "helping" the village.

 

[myblueroan]

So Vig, we seered BEaston and they came back villager. If you happened to hit them as well, then they are definitely the right lynch today. If you didn't hit BEaston, we're getting close to a 50/50 on evil.

MBR, thanks for the amulet. Unless someone else pops their head up, I'll be passing it to the other flog.

After losing Ocha early, we thought it best to lay low for a little while. If nobody else sticks their head up, Doc please protect me tonight.

Thank f#kc for that! Clever signalling by the way.

I thought the theory was evil did it to show they were "helping" the village.

Oh...it was?

 

[myblueroan]

I thought the theory was evil did it to show they were "helping" the village.

I am so 'off' right now. Just re-read 3kz's theory. Which I had liked.

 

[Michaels]

So Vig, we seered BEaston and they came back villager. If you happened to hit them as well, then they are definitely the right lynch today. If you didn't hit BEaston, we're getting close to a 50/50 on evil.

MBR, thanks for the amulet. Unless someone else pops their head up, I'll be passing it to the other flog.

After losing Ocha early, we thought it best to lay low for a little while. If nobody else sticks their head up, Doc please protect me tonight.

very nice!

For me this new info just confirms my methodology, if we hit the BEaston lynch and it flips evil it is automatically going to lead us to 2-3 other very strong probabilities based on earlier events of today and give the Vig a clear target or 2.

In the early stages of a game it's the closest thing we have to a % play.

 

[Kurve]

Thank f#kc for that! Clever signalling by the way.

Oh...it was?

Okay, I might have been a bit paranoid so you're off my list. I'll relax now and follow the Flog votes.

 

[myblueroan]

Okay, I might have been a bit paranoid so you're off my list. I'll relax now and follow the Flog votes.

 

[Cadsky]

Good afternoon Cadsky whenever you rock up.

Once again you're pushing the town in the wrong direction. Why don't you start looking for evil or Night immune? Because I am neither