Preview Grand Final 2024 - Sydney Swans / South Melbourne Bloods vs Brisbane Bears/ Fitzroy Lions - The Big Dance

[Sid Ruckle]

Grand Final Week Injury Update: Mills a test

See the latest on our injury list ahead of Saturday afternoon's Grand Final

www.sydneyswans.com.au

McDonald not even named in injury list.

Looks good to go

Listed as test on AFL app.

 

[Pugnacious1874]

You're right, the midfield battle would be enthralling. I think Heeney, Warner & Gulden would probably fight amongst themselves to the death to prove who is best, like a scene from Gladiator.

or Reservoir Dogs

 

[ShireSwan]

I think that middle to top tier of players are pretty even between the two teams. We've got pretty reliable weapons in Florent, Mcinerney, Hayward, Papley, Blakey etc, but they also have Bailey, Rayner, McCluggage, cameron and Ah chee.

What scares me is their midfield ball winning ability in comparison to ours in Dunkley, Ashcroft and Neale. I think we are the more efficient outside team but it comes down to who is able to break even in the area of least strength. Our mids are capable of matching them, but their ability to mop around the outside is pretty good too. It really is as even a matchup as you can possibly get.

Contest and ground position should be our absolute major focus going into this one. We can't be getting slaughtered in the clearance game all day and expect our rebound efficiency to win the game, that would turn into a swans hawks 2014 style game where we are just hemmed in all day. They have too many weapons in the air and drop of the ball in their forward half to afford that.

I feel we have more up side, but at the same time i feel like we're also the more vulnerable to a structural collapse if the contest is too heated. Any result, including a blowout either way is very possible imo.

Personally I think we are underdogs for precisely the reason you state - they have more weapons to give them first use.

I think our best chance is to have Warner as the contested winner he can be, but for the whole game this time.
The last few weeks he's had no clearances in the first half - and then turned it on in the last quarter. Had none till 3/4 time Vs GWS then had 7 in the last quarter. Similar last week. I have to assume that is on coaching instruction to hang around the fringes looking for break away play to get it forward.

That instruction for Warner needs to change this week if we are to win IMO.
We need 10 clearances from Warner to win the game. That's the stat that will decide it IMHO.

I think he can get those 10 over a whole game AND still provide some break away forward momentum. If he can get 7 in a quarter, he can do 10 over a game mixing up his work. We'll still have McInerney, Gulden to be more fringe dwellers.

On the other hand having Parker and Mills at either end of the ground (or these days at either end of a stoppage on either 50) provides some real lock it down grunt for contests and either gaining or locking in field position. Mills does tend to be stationary and swing it on the boot toward the boundary and hope for the best though...as opposed to Fox run and try and get a handball chain or switch. Interesting what happens there at selection.

 

[bedford]

Guarantee a win?

yep i even gave you the score

 

[bedford]

What I’m afraid of is if we include Mills after a rigorous, internal training session tomorrow, what if he does his hammy 20min into the 1st qtr?

Stiff

 

[The King!]

Personally I think we are underdogs for precisely the reason you state - they have more weapons to give them first use.

I think our best chance is to have Warner as the contested winner he can be, but for the whole game this time.
The last few weeks he's had no clearances in the first half - and then turned it on in the last quarter. Had none till 3/4 time Vs GWS then had 7 in the last quarter. Similar last week. I have to assume that is on coaching instruction to hang around the fringes looking for break away play to get it forward.

That instruction for Warner needs to change this week if we are to win IMO.
We need 10 clearances from Warner to win the game. That's the stat that will decide it IMHO.

I think he can get those 10 over a whole game AND still provide some break away forward momentum. If he can get 7 in a quarter, he can do 10 over a game mixing up his work. We'll still have McInerney, Gulden to be more fringe dwellers.

On the other hand having Parker and Mills at either end of the ground (or these days at either end of a stoppage on either 50) provides some real lock it down grunt for contests and either gaining or locking in field position. Mills does tend to be stationary and swing it on the boot toward the boundary and hope for the best though...as opposed to Fox run and try and get a handball chain or switch. Interesting what happens there at selection.

Sounds like we fluked our way in .

 

[bedford]

Sounds like we fluked our way in .

It's f ing unbelievable at times

 

[DeathlyAccurate]

Personally I think we are underdogs

Shocked to be sitting here.


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[Adnico26Parker]

Stiff

Are you for or against Mills playing?

 

[Bloods86]

Personally I think we are underdogs for precisely the reason you state - they have more weapons to give them first use.

Friendly reminder that we won the clearance count in 2022.

 

[bloodsbigot]

What I’m afraid of is if we include Mills after a rigorous, internal training session tomorrow, what if he does his hammy 20min into the 1st qtr?

I'll never forgive him.

 

[ShireSwan]

Sounds like we fluked our way in .

No it doesn't. It sounds like we are playing a really good team in the grand final and we'll need to be at our best to win.

If you disagree fine, but the passive agressive shite can FRO to be honest.

 

[Dangas]

Happy this year for the AFL to redeem themselves for us Bloods fans livid experience for the parade along the Yarra back in 2022. What an absolute joke that was.

I had to quickly scout another vantage point once they went 'feet dry' and ended up at the MCG. I don't mind the Yarra Park festival they setup outside there though.

Weather is looking like sunshine and can't wait for Paps to have round 2 of this...haters gonna hate.

 

[bedford]

Are you for or against Mills playing?

If gets through everything , absolutely , he's just such a calm smart player , geez im sick of the negativity

 

[Dubai Quacker]

Parker for the Norm Smith is my vote

Cripps will win the Norm Smith.

But they'll accidentally read out Nick Daicos as the winner.

 

[Kiama Chris]

McLean is the man. Has done it before back in R1 2021 and can do it again. He limited Andrews to 11 disposals and 4 marks and we smashed them that night at the Gabba.

This is my feeling too. He has the physicality that can make it hard for Andrews to take a contested mark and is too dangerous to run off. The only problem is the time he needs to ruck and someone else needs to take Andrews.

 

[DeathlyAccurate]

In all honesty we won’t get a better chance for a while. This team can of course make multiple grand finals but as far as stars aligning, we haven’t had a better chance since 2016*.

Brisbane are a worthy opponent. They have what it takes to stop us in our tracks but even as recently as the last game between these teams I thought we showed that we are a class above despite the loss. They played almost as well as they could while we were our own worst enemy and had players going down like flies.

We haven’t left Sydney for 30+ days and we just won a measured, clinical prelim against a team that belted us by over 100 points only a few weeks ago.

Brisbane has had to pull rabbits out of the hat two weeks in a row and now go in without their number one ruck. They're now deficient in an area where we could really take hold of them and further increase the supply to our gun mids.

This isn't to say I'm not nervous as hell and that there's no fear of another massive missed opportunity, but I also feel like it is our time. It has to be and it should be.

Swans by 24.


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[bedford]

Sunny and 22 light winds , showers the next day for the celebrations

 

[caesar88]

Personally I think we are underdogs for precisely the reason you state - they have more weapons to give them first use.

I think our best chance is to have Warner as the contested winner he can be, but for the whole game this time.
The last few weeks he's had no clearances in the first half - and then turned it on in the last quarter. Had none till 3/4 time Vs GWS then had 7 in the last quarter. Similar last week. I have to assume that is on coaching instruction to hang around the fringes looking for break away play to get it forward.

That instruction for Warner needs to change this week if we are to win IMO.
We need 10 clearances from Warner to win the game. That's the stat that will decide it IMHO.

I think he can get those 10 over a whole game AND still provide some break away forward momentum. If he can get 7 in a quarter, he can do 10 over a game mixing up his work. We'll still have McInerney, Gulden to be more fringe dwellers.

On the other hand having Parker and Mills at either end of the ground (or these days at either end of a stoppage on either 50) provides some real lock it down grunt for contests and either gaining or locking in field position. Mills does tend to be stationary and swing it on the boot toward the boundary and hope for the best though...as opposed to Fox run and try and get a handball chain or switch. Interesting what happens there at selection.

With all due respect this is the strangest of hills you have chosen to die on.

When I think of Chad Warner at his best, I think of him with a paddock in front of him to move into and use. Whether that be breaking lines to rebound us from a defensive stoppage, or to surge into the forward 50 for a goal on the run, which he loves.

I do not think of Chad Warner on the inside winning the hard pill at the coalface. He ventures into headless chook territory because he tries to play his preferred game - time & space - in situations where there is no time & space. Chad Warner getting busted in tackles for trying to do too much is Bad Warner.

We have Heeney & Rowbottom who are much better extractors. We are 13-3 when Heeney has 5+ clearances in a game this year, and 12-2 when Rowbottom has 5+ clearances in a game. I'd suggest we're far better off leaving the role you speak of to those guys??

 

[Jimbo OZ]

If Mills gets through his test, he plays. If he plays and gets re-injured then that is bad luck. All you can do is test and make the call. I was interested in hearing Libby Birch on the Age's Real Footy podcast. For those who don't now her, she is an AFLW player and physiotherapist. She was adamant that Mills should play if he can run at full velocity. Every player is at risk of injury during the game.

 

[DeathlyAccurate]

Sunny and 22 light winds , showers the next day for the celebrations

We’ll all be wet the next day.


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[Jimbo OZ]

With all due respect this is the strangest of hills you have chosen to die on.

When I think of Chad Warner at his best, I think of him with a paddock in front of him to move into and use. Whether that be breaking lines to rebound us from a defensive stoppage, or to surge into the forward 50 for a goal on the run, which he loves.

I do not think of Chad Warner on the inside winning the hard pill at the coalface. He ventures into headless chook territory because he tries to play his preferred game - time & space - in situations where there is no time & space.

We have Heeney & Rowbottom who are much better extractors. We are 13-3 when Heeney has 5+ clearances in a game this year, and 12-2 when Rowbottom has 5+ clearances in a game. I'd suggest we're far better off leaving the role you speak of to those guys??

Agree. I'd love to see Rowy be given freedom at centre bounce to hunt the clearance. He can become more defensive post clearance.

 

[Kiama Chris]

G'day Swans fans,

Interesting reading through here, quiet confidence from most which i think is fair enough. I think the two sides are quite evenly matched, albeit with different weapons. Your biggest advantages are no Oscar and being fresh as a daisy. That could well be a big factor - i didn't think we would tire v Geelong as we had an easy week one of finals, but now it's been two big weeks. Weirdly our last quarter vs Geelong was extremely low on the pressure index - but there was a lot of sprinting and open play.

Match-ups i see us aiming for:

Starcevich to Heeney when he goes forward - nobody else is a chance of matching his combination of speed agility and aerial prowess.
Berry to Gulden - Gulden ran riot against us last time and seemed to be given a LOT of space. Expecting him to get some attention this time
Ah Chee to Blakey - don't think this will be a hard tag - Ah Chee will aim to go to him when he can but keep dangerous. Bit of russian roulette i guess.
Payne to McDondald
Lester to Amarey - Lester undersized here so this is a bit of a risk
Andrews to McLean - although swans might want someone different? Mclean nullified andrews well once or twice, i thought andrews was quite good in the last game this year on him though
Answerth to Papley - rugged defender who is some chance to not get ruffled by him haha

Do you imagine a hard tag on Zorko? And Neale? From memory Adams killed Neale last time. Maybe he is a selection bolter. I think Zorko got a fair bit of space?

Anyway promises to be a fascinating match. Very interested in the start - as much as we have had 2 good comebacks we wouldn't want to fall behind again vs a fresh swans side. Then there is the record of the two sides in first quarters - the swans have had quite a few slow starts. Whereas we have been piping hot since the bye - only losing one first quarter, although that was recently and badly vs GWS in the semi final.

I think the pre finals bye has helped teams playing the hard way get to the granny BUT winning it is still a step too far most of the time.

Here's to a cracking contest, although not sure i can handle another heartbreaker...

Nice post, very fair.
JJ to Zorko. He doesn't play a traditional hard tag niggly stuff, just gives no space and sweats on him. Has done this kind of thing all year.
Rowbottom on Neale in tight but I doubt we'll run a genuine tag on him.
McDonald might be a bit risky for Payne because he covers a lot of territory and a lot of minutes. I thought he would go to Amartey and Lester to McDonald. We'll see.
Andrews will want to zone off and if you watched our PF he could get isolated.
Berry will be on someone for sure and he better have his running boots on!
Weirdly I think your hardest matchup there might be Hayward. Again, running boots needed.
Both teams' mids dangerous in attack.
Let's hope the umps have no influence on the outcome!

 

[caesar88]

Agree. I'd love to see Rowy be given freedom at centre bounce to hunt the clearance. He can become more defensive post clearance.

Posted this in June, back when we last looked like the best team in the comp (prior to now!):

He's gone bananas at centre bounces. The number one centre clearance player in the comp this year, Nick Daicos, is averaging 3.4 for the year. Since the bye, Rowbottom is averaging 6.3.

Heeney, who has been our best first possession player this year, is averaging 2.7 first possessions at centre bounces. Rowbottom's averaging 6 since the bye.

If we get a repeat of this sort of clinic from Rowbottom, we'll be hard to stop. Raw clearance numbers, contested possession numbers, etc. don't always tell the full story, but with our team this year they really do. We are so stacked with goalkicking options that if we're on top in the clearance/possession/territory game, we just become utterly dominant because it improves one of the only very few areas of vulnerability in our game. We can without it all of course, with our ball movement from the back half and turnover game, but our very best footy has come when we're on top out of the middle. Been a while since we've seen it but geez I'd be foaming at the mouth if we saw it on Saturday.

**** I'm pumped

 

[Wheresbuddy]

This is my feeling too. He has the physicality that can make it hard for Andrews to take a contested mark and is too dangerous to run off. The only problem is the time he needs to ruck and someone else needs to take Andrews.

I forgot that he is needed to give Grundy a chop out. Andrews is often a >90% ToG player too. Doss to do the bulk, combination of Amartey and McDonald for the rest.