Hawthorn Premiership Odds

[PerthBoy86]

Most years aren't like 2018. There's not much between WC in 2nd and Geelong in 8th. The biggest wildcard we throw into the mix is hosting two finals in Perth. Just look at the current odds. Hawthorn lost once with the double chance and have already fallen down to be the longest priced team for the flag despite the facts that two teams won't be there next week and they will.

Plus the Dogs won the flag from 7th in 2016, Port and North both made the prelims from outside the top 4 in 2014. It's more common these days than it was previously. 2017 reverted to the norm though.

I think after tonight we'll have a good idea who goes in favourite in the semi final against Hawthorn.

 

[Adz]

Get on the Hawks at better than $2 to beat either Melbourne or Geelong next week.

People overrate the winning Elimination Finalists and underrate the losing Qualifying Finalists.

It happens every year.

Nah Hawks are the new straight sets specialists.

Haven’t won a final since 2015.

 

[Scotland]

I think after tonight we'll have a good idea who goes in favourite in the semi final against Hawthorn.

If Geelong beat Melbourne you can guarantee the bookies are going to set close odds for Hawthorn vs Geelong.

 

[Fadge]

Most years aren't like 2018. There's not much between WC in 2nd and Geelong in 8th. The biggest wildcard we throw into the mix is hosting two finals in Perth. Just look at the current odds. Hawthorn lost once with the double chance and have already fallen down to be the longest priced team for the flag despite the facts that two teams won't be there next week and they will.

Plus the Dogs won the flag from 7th in 2016, Port and North both made the prelims from outside the top 4 in 2014. It's more common these days than it was previously. 2017 reverted to the norm though.

This is what 'they' say every year.

Hawthorn have just been beaten by the best team in the comp, and Melbourne and Geelong are a fair way of football them. But the nuffies will be blinded by winning form and losing form, and the odds will not be commensurate with each team's respective probability of winning.

No certain bet, but whichever way it goes Hawthorn will be over the odds. I'll take those type of bets every day of the week.

 

[Fadge]

You think the pre finals bye will change things?

It doesn't change the fact Hawthorn have just been beaten by the best team in the comp.

 

[Wesley2]

Get on the Hawks at better than $2 to beat either Melbourne or Geelong next week.

People overrate the winning Elimination Finalists and underrate the losing Qualifying Finalists.

It happens every year.

A day extra rest might help and chances are we don't play that badly again, but realistically we'll struggle without Stratton, heavily underrated over the years. Either way, our younger players will get some crucial finals experience and will be better for it.

 

[HairyO]

Nah Hawks are the new straight sets specialists.

Haven’t won a final since 2015.

How many have Collingwood won since 2015?

 

[Scotland]

This is what 'they' say every year.

Hawthorn have just been beaten by the best team in the comp, and Melbourne and Geelong are a fair way of football them. But the nuffies will be blinded by winning form and losing form, and the odds will not be commensurate with each team's respective probability of winning.

No certain bet, but whichever way it goes Hawthorn will be over the odds. I'll take those type of bets every day of the week.

People can say the same thing each year, but it doesn't make each year the same. Last year we scraped into 8t on % after Melbourne choked then upset Port in the EF. Anyone who thought we were a good chance to reach the GF shouldn't be betting.

Pretty much every team from 3rd to 8th was expected to miss the finals at some stage during the year. We escaped that by having such a good start. If was going to bet on the finals outcomes I would be backing a Richmond vs WC GF simply because Richmond are the clear #1 side and we finished 2nd. Had we dropped to 3rd or 4th our odds would be in double figures now.

Hawthorn and Geelong have played twice, Geelong and Melbourne have played twice, Melbourne and Hawthorn have played once. Two close games, two games decided after the siren and one blow out from Rd 4. From my perspective if we win and face the winner of those 3 we beat Hawthorn in a close ish game away, Geelong in a close ish game at home and Melbourne beat us 3 weeks ago. It's not like previous years where some match ups are hard and others look easy.

 

[Walshawk]

One of the weaker top 4 sides in modern memory. It was essentially a training run for Richmond.

Yes, that we could finish fourth shows how far the standard of the top teams has fallen in just three years. In 2015 we finished third and that team (add Rioli, Hodge, Mitchell, Lewis, Lake, Gibson) would beat our current team by a lot more than 2018 Richmond could. Equalisation is finally working. Richmond aside, nobody would stand a chance against any top four teams from 2008 - 2015.
P.S. Hawthorn’s 2011 team was as good as any of our flag years. We came third. The top four was sensational that year.

 

[Scotland]

2011 we finished 4th on 17-5 130%.

Would've had us a game and a half clear on top last year... bloody 18 wins wasn't enough for the top 2!

 

[Duskfire]

This is what 'they' say every year.

Hawthorn have just been beaten by the best team in the comp, and Melbourne and Geelong are a fair way of football them. But the nuffies will be blinded by winning form and losing form, and the odds will not be commensurate with each team's respective probability of winning.

No certain bet, but whichever way it goes Hawthorn will be over the odds. I'll take those type of bets every day of the week.

I agree with you to a certain extent. However both Geelong and Melb are heavy scoring and with no Stratton they will have a field day. You are right maybe Hawthorn will still win but they would have to kick a massive score to win

 

[Number37]

Hey mate, how do you think our youth went tonight?

Hey mate, how do you think your youth went last night?

 

[Number37]

Does Sydney count as a good side?

Does Hawthorn count as a good side?

 

[Number37]

Abasi gone awol.
Shocked to be sitting here.

 

[MinerBoy]

Richmond $1.90
West Coast $7.50
Collingwood $8.00
Melbourne $11.00
Geelong $13.00
Sydney $18.00
Hawthorn, GWS $21.00

I suspect the winner of the WC/Collingwood QF will come in to about $5-6 and the loser will go out into double figures. Will be interesting to see how they frame the market after the semis.

One thing's for sure, come Sunday night we'll be at better odds than 2 of those sides.

 

[MinerBoy]

This is what 'they' say every year.

Hawthorn have just been beaten by the best team in the comp, and Melbourne and Geelong are a fair way of football them. But the nuffies will be blinded by winning form and losing form, and the odds will not be commensurate with each team's respective probability of winning.

No certain bet, but whichever way it goes Hawthorn will be over the odds. I'll take those type of bets every day of the week.

Hawthorn's performance, which I thought was respectable in effort and intensity for a lot of the night, might only be able to be judged when looking back over the entire finals series.

In the end it was a comfortable Richmond win but we won (narrowly) 2 of 4 quarters and had we not wasted some golden chances would have kept ourselves closer far deeper in to the game. However in the end a 31 point loss isn't unexpected...….. however neither is it a complete blowout or embarrassment.

It's a closer result than any of the 3 finals losers to the Tigers last year and I think Richmond have gone up a cog this year. Come the completion of the season it may be the closest finals game the Tigers played over the course of 2 seasons and we may be looked upon more favourably about where we sit amongst the top 8 sides.

 

[Number37]

Hawthorn's performance, which I thought was respectable in effort and intensity for a lot of the night, might only be able to be judged when looking back over the entire finals series.

In the end it was a comfortable Richmond win but we won (narrowly) 2 of 4 quarters and had we not wasted some golden chances would have kept ourselves closer far deeper in to the game. However in the end a 31 point loss isn't unexpected...….. however neither is it a complete blowout or embarrassment.

It's a closer result than any of the 3 finals losers to the Tigers last year and I think Richmond have gone up a cog this year. Come the completion of the season it may be the closest finals game the Tigers played over the course of 2 seasons and we may be looked upon more favourably about where we sit amongst the top 8 sides.

Tigers won in second gear. It was only close because they butchered the ball early on.
When shit got real, Hawthorn were nowhere to be seen.
Mitchell 50 possessions again and his team got smashed.
JOM was pretty good, showed glimpses of what we have missed out on seeing from him so far.

Hawks youth. Bog ordinary. Morrison/Worpel way out of their depth.

 

[MinerBoy]

Think we can say with some certainty that the Hawks most definitely aren't the weakest team in the 8.

 

[MinerBoy]

Tigers won in second gear. It was only close because they butchered the ball early on.
When shit got real, Hawthorn were nowhere to be seen.
Mitchell 50 possessions again and his team got smashed.
JOM was pretty good, showed glimpses of what we have missed out on seeing from him so far.

Hawks youth. Bog ordinary. Morrison/Worpel way out of their depth.

So you didn't watch? Why comment then?

Hawks butchered the ball early and the Tigers were in a massive contested scrap. They wore us down eventually.

Just ease up on the bitterness....and well quite simply stop talking shit. Kinda getting embarrassing for you really.

 

[Pessimistic]

We actually have the longest odds of any remaining finals team. Even the ones who will be eliminated tomorrow

 

[Pessimistic]

Tigers won in second gear. It was only close because they butchered the ball early on.
When shit got real, Hawthorn were nowhere to be seen.
Mitchell 50 possessions again and his team got smashed.
JOM was pretty good, showed glimpses of what we have missed out on seeing from him so far.

Hawks youth. Bog ordinary. Morrison/Worpel way out of their depth.

Enjoy tomorrow. Goodby from me

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Abasi gone awol.
Shocked to be sitting here.

I’m here precious, unlike your good self after Round 23.

 

[G0ther00s]

I'm not just saying this because of the old winner of the elimination final vs the lose of the top 4 final, because I've thought it for a long time. But Melbourne are a much better team than Hawks in my opinion. Incredibly soft draw for Hawks led to their top 4 spot.

 

[hawkman]

I'm not just saying this because of the old winner of the elimination final vs the lose of the top 4 final, because I've thought it for a long time. But Melbourne are a much better team than Hawks in my opinion. Incredibly soft draw for Hawks led to their top 4 spot.

Melbourne had an even softer draw though

 

[Number37]

I’m here precious, unlike your good self after Round 23.

You didn't add anything, as per usual, to the discussion after r23, besides the predictable trolling.

Why would I need to comment about Hawks fans being ungracious winners, AGAIN?