Analysis Hawthorn rebuild: are they tanking?

Should Hawks Be Punished?


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This is pretty accurate. Other than North, every team we've played is in the 8 (3 in the top 4) or just outside (Pies and Suns). I can see us getting a string of wins when we play sides around us.

Just a bit of bad fixturing you reckon? I don’t think the Hawks will go in as favourites in any of the Richmond, Saints, Brisbane or Adelaide games. WCE in Perth isn’t the lock everyone thought it was. Fortunately you get to feast on North again but not until the end of the year.

7 games of footy is generally a pretty good indicator. The Hawks are going to remain bottom 4.
 
I was commenting on where your younger players sit rather than suggesting a trade. You'd be hoping some had held or increased their draft value, but it's only your oldies Amon, Sicily and Frost who have really kicked on during this rebuild. Newcombe too obviously. The draftees not so much.

We've had plenty more than just Amon, Sicily, Frost and Newcombe improving.
 
Just a bit of bad fixturing you reckon? I don’t think the Hawks will go in as favourites in any of the Richmond, Saints, Brisbane or Adelaide games. WCE in Perth isn’t the lock everyone thought it was. Fortunately you get to feast on North again but not until the end of the year.

7 games of footy is generally a pretty good indicator. The Hawks are going to remain bottom 4.

I mean outside of the North and Essendon game (not sure what the odds were on the latter but I'd assume it was close to 50/50) I don't think we would have been favourites to win any of our games so far. I at least pencilled in North as a win and the Bombers as a 50/50 in the preseason.

Is performing to expectation cause for panic? I wouldn't think so.

Going into the season I would have hoped to be 2-5 as opposed to 1-6 based on our first 2 months. We really should have beat the Bombers but we kicked ourselves out of it.

Really the only two disappointing performances have been tonight and Gold Coast away. We nearly pipped the Pies and the Geelong/Dees game were just two bigger more experienced sides doing a professional job on us.
 
Just a bit of bad fixturing you reckon? I don’t think the Hawks will go in as favourites in any of the Richmond, Saints, Brisbane or Adelaide games. WCE in Perth isn’t the lock everyone thought it was. Fortunately you get to feast on North again but not until the end of the year.

7 games of footy is generally a pretty good indicator. The Hawks are going to remain bottom 4.

Tiger's and Eagles odds are roughly even. The others we'll be underdogs, but we'll definitely have a chance to win those ones. Will all depend on having Day, Lewis and Jiath fit.
 
Mitchell

Season 1 36% WL
Season 2 30% WL
Season 3 14% WL

A few departed coaches who have superior records:

Rhyce Shaw
Rutten
Teague
McKenna
 
Mitchell

Season 1 36% WL
Season 2 30% WL
Season 3 14% WL

A few departed coaches who have superior records:

Rhyce Shaw
Rutten
Teague
McKenna

Safe as houses is Sam.

He has the full backing of the board. :cool:
 
Mitchell

Season 1 36% WL
Season 2 30% WL
Season 3 14% WL

A few departed coaches who have superior records:

Rhyce Shaw
Rutten
Teague
McKenna
Won more games than i expected last year wins over Collingwood, Brisbane, Saints & Bulldogs not expected.

Not bottoming out and getting the cream picks has hurt us imo.

Would expect improvement next season over this season.

This year not looking good so far.
 

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Improving at or above the expected rate? Eg, yes all draftees improve but if a pick 4 has dropped in value and no longer worth pick 4, it's not a real improvement.

What a fascinatingly absurd method of valuing players.

There’s gonna be ups and downs along the way. We aren’t as good as we thought we were going into this season, but we equally aren’t as bad as the doomsdayers will have you believe.

Patience is a virtue.
 
Improving at or above the expected rate? Eg, yes all draftees improve but if a pick 4 has dropped in value and no longer worth pick 4, it's not a real improvement.

I mean under Sam we've seen the following players make some big steps.

Nash has gone from delist material to serviceable defensive mid. In a top 4 side he's probably going to be 23rd man at best or depth (unless he improves out of sight) and we will be taking big steps forward if we are able to replace him with a far more talented player in our best 22.

Day had a career best season last year as a full time mid. Injury has restricted him this year but glad to see him go through unscathed.

Moore has gone from strength to strength. Can't believe he had glandular fever 8 weeks ago.

Seamus Mitchell has done alright in a positional change to defense. Had a bit of a shocker today but he's quietly been good. Think he got a rising star nom last year IIRC.

Scrimshaw is having a career best season.

We've seen our most recent 1st round draftees in Weddle, CMackenzie, Ward have moments but still lack consistency. Still too early to judge but I'm happy with their progress.

By your metric I'd say Weddle would easily be selected higher than his initial draft position. CMackenzie probably around the same if not a tad higher based on performances so far.
 
Worst thing Hawks can do this season is to have too many late season wins and miss out on the elite talent again.

They really lack young talent, which is poor considering their results over the last 3 seasons
 
Mitchell claimed that the bulk of the next premiership were already on the list.

We've had an absolute mare of a season with the messaging that's come out of the club.

That comment.

+ the "no ceiling on the season" comment. *

+ leaders at the club talking about Finals. *

+ this idea that the club is done focussing on drafting and there has now been a shift in direction for recruitment (which has been mentioned too many times by some posters).

That was all rather misplaced arrogance and a complete overrating of where we are as a club. The cold hard truth has now slapped us upside the head.

* it's fine having internal goals. But don't go mentioning them in public like that when they're extremely ambitious, especially given how poor the last several seasons have been. Talk is so cheap and those comments are proving to be rather embarrassing in hindsight.
 
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Worst thing Hawks can do this season is to have too many late season wins and miss out on the elite talent again.

They really lack young talent, which is poor considering their results over the last 3 seasons

It's pretty hard to access elite talent these days without getting the #1 pick.

So many F&S, NGA, free agency compo and academy selections pushing picks back.
 
We've had an absolute mare of a season with the messaging that's come out of the club.

That comment.

+ the "no ceiling on the season" comment. *

+ leaders at the club talking about Finals. *

+ this idea that the club is done focussing on drafting and there has now been a shift in direction for recruitment (which has been mentiomed too many times by some posters).

That was all rather misplaced arrogance and a complete overrating of where we are as a club. The cold hard truth has now slapped us upside the head.

* it's fine having internal goals. But don't go mentioning them in public like that when they're extremely ambitious, especially given how poor the last several seasons have been. Talk is so cheap and those comments are provung to be rather embarrassing in hindsight.

These rebuilds are bloody hard work …
 
Sneaky secret upside for all of North, Hawthorn, and West Coast;

Much better to be s**t now before Tasmania comes in and starts absolutely ruining the drafts.

I feel very bad for whichever the next teams to bottom out will be. (Richmond? Adelaide? St Kilda?)
 
There is someone else who has been coaching for about as long. He took over the 17th placed side but seems to get less praise for being brilliant than the Hawthorn coach, who could it be? :think:

You mean these guys?



Seems like they've had plenty of praise. Much deserved, of course.
 
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