How long should a rebuild take?

[Joao]

Re build like the Cats and Swans.. on the run by judicious trading/Free agents and picking up gems later in the draft.

Sydney don't count. They have had the luxury of top 5 picks when finishing in the top 4. Most clubs can't do that.

Geelong is the real benchmark since all they've got over anyone else is "lifestyle".

 

[eth-dog]

From the start (using Carlton as an example as a clear starting point at the end of 2015, to now being a possible contender) you should be making finals in year 5 (2020) then top 4 two years later and maintain it for 4/5 years.

 

[TheKanga]

Unfortunately I feel like we are starting the rebuild again from scratch this year as the Noble years there was a lot of list turnover and last year Clarko was away for a period.

We should have retained players like Ben Brown

50

Ben Brown

Age

32

Ht

200cm

Wt

100kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.7

3star

K

7.7

3star

HB

3.0

3star

M

4.8

5star

T

1.2

3star

G

2.2

5star

D

7.9

2star

K

6.3

3star

HB

1.6

1star

M

3.7

4star

T

0.9

2star

G

1.0

4star

D

8.0

2star

K

4.6

2star

HB

3.4

3star

M

4.4

4star

T

1.4

4star

G

1.2

4star

and not cut our list so deep.

 

[Simon_Nesbit]

A couple of thoughts - all leading towards me saying 5 seasons at best - if EVERYTHING goes right.

Players are drafted at 18, fully mature and at their best from 22-23. (4-5 years).
Players generally take 50 games to find a baseline, 100 games for their career level. (4-5 years).
Average list age ranges from 22.5-26.5 (4.5 year spread).
Premium players are now signing 4-6+ year contracts (5 years).
18 clubs, 8 make finals. Once in 2.25 years. Counting rebuild from last finals, (down and up so x2) = 4.5 years.

 

[Happy Mastenator]

Not all rebuilds are created equal.

A lot depends on the group that is left from the previous era. If you push all your chips in to try and eek out another flag (as you're entitled to), you've probably traded away picks/youth for established players. So your list has gaping holes in the players that should be 25-30 when the rebuild is done. If that is the case your rebuild will take a fair while as you need incoming players to hit 25+, that's 7 or 8 years at least from the first draft.

If the 25-30 cohort (when the rebuild is done) are solid AFL players, then it's a lot shorter if you've drafted in a heap of talent that is hitting 20-24, you'll have a reasonbly rounded team in 4 to 6 years

 

[Tiger2709]

Re build like the Cats and Swans.. on the run by judicious trading/Free agents and picking up gems later in the draft.

1 flag each in 12 or more years so not sure that is the whole answer either, if its flags you want?

Of course this keeps them thereabouts and avoids the drop to the bottom that can devastate some clubs for many years on and off the field but seems to often mean these clubs are good most years but often not quite good enough on the big day, again this is in regards flags not just good solid consistent seasons.

 

[Happy Mastenator]

1 flag each in 12 or more years so not sure that is the whole answer either, if its flags you want?

Of course this keeps them thereabouts and avoids the drop to the bottom that can devastate some clubs for many years on and off the field but seems to often mean these clubs are good most years but often not quite good enough on the big day, again this is in regards flags not just good solid consistent seasons.

This comes back to the ultimate question all sports fans must ask.

Which 10 year period would you prefer?

1. 1 Flag and 4 or 5 years of finals, followed by a spoon and several years near the bottom; or
2. A couple of prelims, 7 or 8 years of finals, and a couple of years just missing finals.

It's natural to say you want the 10 years with a flag, but option 2 would probably provide more long term enjoyment (if not the exhilarating brief high)

 

[Tiger2709]

This comes back to the ultimate question all sports fans must ask.

Which 10 year period would you prefer?

1. 1 Flag and 4 or 5 years of finals, followed by a spoon and several years near the bottom; or
2. A couple of prelims, 7 or 8 years of finals, and a couple of years just missing finals.

It's natural to say you want the 10 years with a flag, but option 2 would probably provide more long term enjoyment (if not the exhilarating brief high)

Both would be the ultimate but it is rare unless your team is playing soccer in Spain, drafts are designed to stop you having the best of both Worlds, just hope that when your team gets its chance they grab it with both hands, then prepare for the worst, something both your and my club have experienced lately.

 

[faible]

1 flag each in 12 or more years so not sure that is the whole answer either, if its flags you want?

Geelong since 2007 have been exceptional given they've pretty much managed to do both options:

13 Top-4 Finishes
6 Grand Finals
4 Premierships

Top-4 means they were around the mark for a Premiership, even if it doesn't always result in one (example Geelong in 89, 92, 94 and 95 losing all four Grand Finals).

Actually winning the flag can come down to luck and timing as much as anything else. Do Bulldogs win in 2016 without the bye week added? St Kilda were a bad bounce away from a Premiership in 2010. Collingwood in 2018 lost to an incredible kick from Dom Sheed wtih less than 2 minutes to go.

 

[Tiger2709]

Geelong since 2007 have been exceptional given they've pretty much managed to do both options:

13 Top-4 Finishes
6 Grand Finals
4 Premierships

Top-4 means they were around the mark for a Premiership, even if it doesn't always result in one (example Geelong in 89, 92, 94 and 95 losing all four Grand Finals).

Actually winning the flag can come down to luck and timing as much as anything else. Do Bulldogs win in 2016 without the bye week added? St Kilda were a bad bounce away from a Premiership in 2010. Collingwood in 2018 lost to an incredible kick from Dom Sheed wtih less than 2 minutes to go.

I agree and Geelong have managed their team well but look at clubs that bottomed out, Brisbane 3 flags in 3 years, Hawthorn 4 in 8 years and Richmond 3 in 4 years.

 

[ioppolo]

Depends on how you define rebuild. What’s the starting point and what’s the end goal? Is it making finals? Is it a flag?

Starting point is probably when you properly bottom out, after that initial clinging onto a potential 8th spot awkward stage.
End of the actual rebuild imo is when you're competitive enough to be entrenched in the 8. At that point you're just building towards a flag but the actual rebuilding of the list is done with.

 

[Jim Prideaux]

How long should a rebuild take is a really difficult question to answer as there are so many variables;
Where did you start from - multiple flag tilts, top 4, top 6 but you realise you need a refresh - if you can make a call as a top 6 team that realises they aren’t quite good enough, your list profile may allow a very quick rebuild.

Another factor, rebuild or refresh? Rebuild in my opinion is significant list turnover, leading to a significant age profile change, refresh is letting a few stars and role players go and hitting draft/ FA to replace them and be back up quite quickly.

The other thing that doesn’t get spoken about enough is plain old luck - draft picks are speculative in nature, FS can be a huge boost, but only a few clubs have benefited so far, late picks tgat turn to gold, no freak injuries to kids that derail a potentially good career

 

[Kavliaris69]

How long should a rebuild take is a really difficult question to answer as there are so many variables;
Where did you start from - multiple flag tilts, top 4, top 6 but you realise you need a refresh - if you can make a call as a top 6 team that realises they aren’t quite good enough, your list profile may allow a very quick rebuild.

Another factor, rebuild or refresh? Rebuild in my opinion is significant list turnover, leading to a significant age profile change, refresh is letting a few stars and role players go and hitting draft/ FA to replace them and be back up quite quickly.

The other thing that doesn’t get spoken about enough is plain old luck - draft picks are speculative in nature, FS can be a huge boost, but only a few clubs have benefited so far, late picks tgat turn to gold, no freak injuries to kids that derail a potentially good career

Agree there is no definitive answer just like "How long is a piece of string?". The word 'rebuild' gets thrown around a lot and people fall for it every time. We are rebuilding to have a crack at finals they say. Rubbish, the ultimate goal is to win a premiership so competing for it and making finals means crap to me.
Look at teams like Saints or Doggies for example, probably rebuilt over a dozen times in last 60 years before flag came along. It doesn't matter how long it takes but the quality of the rebuild to win the flag. That is all that's important.

 

[Boomer93]

I appreciate the well thought out response and I think there’s merit to all the points you laid out, even where counter to mine.

I’ll use that team as an example, where in consecutive drafts you’ve taken Murphy, Kennedy (albeit he wouldn’t be available to you under current rules) Gibbs and Kreuzer in the space or three drafts. That quartet should be enough to set your side up for a tilt from the point at which those players hit 21, albeit that does require an additional two years in the rebuild to what I’d allowed for in my example. You still have a full rounds worth of players to cycle through with every subsequent pick to your biggest competitors too, which can be further used to build your cache. In 2005 you were probably unlucky that it was exceptionally weak in the shallow end of the draft which means those seconds and thirds didn’t translate to quality assets. Acknowledging some picks are busts as well, it’s not a perfect, exact science.

All in all, I do think that time in a rebuild phase should be relatively commensurate to the amount of time a side can be expected to “stay up”, given that those sides and their performances should be a culmination of their drafting and list build strategy. I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect any side to stay up longer than four years - a testament to that is the “predict the ladder in three years time” thread which constantly churns out wildly inaccurate predictions. There of course are exceptions both ways - Geelong and Essendon of the last twenty years the two primary examples

You can only expect players to start having a significant impact at 21 or older. So however many drafts you think you should need, I would say 4 minimum, then you need to add an extra 3 years on to that, for the last round of draftees to hit that 21 years of age. Mind you i think 4 is being super generous, 4 first rounders and 4 second rounders worth of young players is rarely enough to compete with, as we have seen time and time again.

 

[Howard Littlejohn]

The hardest part of a 4 year rebuild is the first 20 years

But Carlton got there eventually

 

[Black Diamond]

Well GWS made finals from scratch in their 5th season.

Melbourne also took 5 years taking their rebuild from the start of the Roos years.

It should be 3 years to finals for most clubs though. We should be in the mix for finals by 2026 and competing in 2027.

 

[Tarkyn_24]

You can only expect players to start having a significant impact at 21 or older. So however many drafts you think you should need, I would say 4 minimum, then you need to add an extra 3 years on to that, for the last round of draftees to hit that 21 years of age. Mind you i think 4 is being super generous, 4 first rounders and 4 second rounders worth of young players is rarely enough to compete with, as we have seen time and time again.

Reflecting on Collingwood 2010 that premiership side had 12 players acquired through drafts in the previous 5 years, along with 3 players acquired using draft capital solely from the same period.

Of the remaining seven players, they entered 2006 having played 113, 79, 30, 30, 15, 6 and 4 games respectively.

That’s practically an entire list turnover (ie. rebuild) in five years.

 

[TheGoatBaron]

42 years

 

[Tarkyn_24]

Same exercise for 2023 using 2019 as the starting point:

13 listed premiership players - 277, 211, 162, 110, 100, 89, 73, 71, 54, 44, 16, 12, 2 games respectively.

5 drafted in period.

5 traded for draft selections acquired in period.

Wouldn’t be inclined to consider that this was one off the back of a rebuild, because the list demographic is as scattered as it is. Foundations you would probably argue were largely laid 9 years out, which is the longer end of the spectrum for a rebuild - which makes sense, it was an old demographic that won the premiership. To a degree, you’d say that same demographic hit the window of top four performances within three years of that draft crop, but that’s also to a degree disingenuous as the team competing in finals at that point was still largely differentiated from the flag team of 2023. Best summarised for mine as a side that didn’t rebuild at all.

Have included out of my own interest and for comparison purposes because you could argue 2010 was cherry picked.

 

[Boomer93]

Same exercise for 2023 using 2019 as the starting point:

13 listed premiership players - 277, 211, 162, 110, 100, 89, 73, 71, 54, 44, 16, 12, 2 games respectively.

5 drafted in period.

5 traded for draft selections acquired in period.

Wouldn’t be inclined to consider that this was one off the back of a rebuild, because the list demographic is as scattered as it is. Foundations you would probably argue were largely laid 9 years out, which is the longer end of the spectrum for a rebuild - which makes sense, it was an old demographic that won the premiership. To a degree, you’d say that same demographic hit the window of top four performances within three years of that draft crop, but that’s also to a degree disingenuous as the team competing in finals at that point was still largely differentiated from the flag team of 2023. Best summarised for mine as a side that didn’t rebuild at all.

Have included out of my own interest and for comparison purposes because you could argue 2010 was cherry picked.

Do you mean 2017 as the starting point? because you were already top 4 in 18 and 19? I would say your rebuild for 2023 premiership started in 2013 when you dropped out the finals for the first time.

 

[Tarkyn_24]

Do you mean 2017 as the starting point? because you were already top 4 in 18 and 19? I would say your rebuild for 2023 premiership started in 2013 when you dropped out the finals for the first time.

I used the list profile 5 years prior solely to compare 2023 side against the 2010 side I’d posted about previously where there was clear delineation around the rebuild.

That said, I’d argue the core of our 2023 premiership side joined the club from 2015 onwards, but hesitant to class that as a rebuild at all as, as you say, the side was performing at a high level with a list profile that continually changed from 2018 so it’s not as clear cut to determine the formative period and thus the rebuild, if that makes sense.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Reflecting on Collingwood 2010 that premiership side had 12 players acquired through drafts in the previous 5 years, along with 3 players acquired using draft capital solely from the same period.

Of the remaining seven players, they entered 2006 having played 113, 79, 30, 30, 15, 6 and 4 games respectively.

That’s practically an entire list turnover (ie. rebuild) in five years.

That was a uniquely young premiership team though. Basically a 5 year rebuild might be a 1 in every 30 year thing.

 

[Lsta062]

In my opinion, it should be:

• 2 years max in the bottom 2
• a further 2 years in the 13th-16th range
• another 2 years in the 9th-12th range.
• top 8

So from finals to finals, there should be a maximum of 6 years between finals if everything went well. Their star players from their bottom 2 years would be around 24 by then.

If they’re taking longer than this, then something went wrong along the way IMO.

 

[Rotayjay]

Realistically (unless you're Sydney or Geelong and able to rebuild while in the eight) a rebuild should take at least 5 years, but not 10 years.

There is more player movement than ever, but the draft is still the main avenue for bringing in players, and draftees are 18. It's not until those draftees reach about 23 years of age or the 100-game mark that they really start hitting their peak. Your typical AFL player is in his prime from 23 to 28.

On the other hand, if you've been rebuilding for 10 years and not won a premiership, your list is probably ageing again and you've blown your chance.

 

[Mitchell Madness]

7-8 years you should be seeing your team beginning to push top 4 if it is a proper rebuild