Analysis Hawthorn rebuild: are they tanking?

[SSSSSS]

It might be advantageous for the Hawks to not be the bidder that bids up Zurhaar to 1st Round compo like they were with Ben McKay this year.

Classic shoot in foot move. It's a strange one to whinge about for a Hawthorn fan. Cost yourself.

We were going to get our man either way anyway.

Was a coin flip between Zane and the Wiz. We were always going to pick up whoever was left over.

 

[smish]

We're so much worse than I thought we would be this year

 

[TerryWallet]

The most telling sign of the Hawks woes is that their coach had to play the once a year "bring your mouthguards to training" trump card to ensure beating North.

In the end, he didn't need to because North were in a non competitive funk. But Coach Mitchell is worried enough that he had to play the trump against North.

Desperate times.

Maybe he'll produce a Terry Wallace "crunch ball" in the return clash.

 

[Saab NLAW]

Looking at draft pick numbers is not really a path to success.

Max Gawn was a second round pick, so was Tom Stewart (they have 10+ AA between them). For the Hawks, Will Day was pick 13. Jiath was a rookie. Sicily was a third round pick. Many very good AFL players were rookie picks.

I think Geelong is really the only club who hasn't needed the top end of draft picks, F/S or academies to be successful. What your club continues to achieve is actually quite remarkable

 

[boncer34]

I think Geelong is really the only club who hasn't needed the top end of draft picks, F/S or academies to be successful. What your club continues to achieve is actually quite remarkable

They've had the "go home" factor. No Danger or Cameron would mean no flag.

 

[Philhawk]

They've had the "go home" factor. No Danger or Cameron would mean no flag.

This. What Geelong have done to defy gravity is outstanding, but let’s stop pretending they’ve managed to purely draft their way out of their decline.

 

[peetoo]

I think Geelong is really the only club who hasn't needed the top end of draft picks, F/S or academies to be successful. What your club continues to achieve is actually quite remarkable

Many of the recent premiers have not had to suffer several seasons at the foot of the ladder

Taking multiple picks in good draft years is a stronger correlation for mine. So many successful lists via the 2001 draft

 

[peetoo]

We're so much worse than I thought we would be this year

1 win 60%
Tracking 2023 almost exactly. Midfield started to gel this time last year. Now it’s the fwd line.

Some improvement but injuries unavailability compensating.

Looking forward 6 wins from 15 and additional 20% would equal 2023. But maybe pick 2 not pick 5 in the draft?

 

[Vindicater]

Ridiculous statement.

Yes we lack talent but Day and Sicily are certainly “A graders.”

Sicily has not been an A grader this year. Has looked hopeless at times.

 

[sr36]

This. What Geelong have done to defy gravity is outstanding, but let’s stop pretending they’ve managed to purely draft their way out of their decline.

Cats recruitment nad development of players is outstanding. And they've worked sleepy hollow magnificently to turn what could have been a disadvantage into a big advantage.

 

[sr36]

Hawks just lack talent. There list has 0 a graders or with potential to be a graders. They are well coached, just don't have the cattle. Mitchell is treating he's players like himself. As a rookie Mitchell worked hard at he's game to be elite, the problem is he could find the footy always and had a good footy brain

I do think you made the mistake that a lot of young managers do - overrated the managers impact in terms of the team and underrated the senior pros within the team and their contribution.

 

[sr36]

Sicily has not been an A grader this year. Has looked hopeless at times.

Day has to back up last year before we put him there. Playing well increases the defensive focus on you and not all can continue to produce with the greater focus on their strengths and weaknesses.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Sicily has not been an A grader this year. Has looked hopeless at times.

Is coming off an ACL which is sometimes forgotten

 

[The Cryptkeeper]

Sicily has not been an A grader this year. Has looked hopeless at times.

He's still an A grader. He's been elite for a long time and is in his prime playing years.

He's out of form but anybody saying he isn't elite doesn't know s**t about football.

 

[Jeremias]

Is coming off an ACL which is sometimes forgotten

Not sure it's forgotten, it's just not particularly relevant to this discussion.

Sicily did his ACL in 2020. This his now his 3rd season back.

His current form has nothing to do with that injury - he's just in terrible form at the moment.

 

[Saab NLAW]

They've had the "go home" factor. No Danger or Cameron would mean no flag.

Every club had the opportunity to get those players, that's just smart trading. Melbourne did the same with May and Lever, identified their targets and went and got them.

 

[Mr Meeseeks]

Geelong are a poor example, they have not had to rebuild as they have had stars come to them before it has gotten to that point. Its not relevant to this discussion.

Its so bloody hard to rebuild without help.

Unless you hit a bonifide FS (Daicos, Darcy, Ashcroftx2 etc), get a priority pick, get insane FA compo or have an academy, it makes it really tough.

On top of that, your regular pick is pushed back by the above every year.

Hawthorn arent getting an academy nor will they get a PP, so they need some luck with FS. Like North with Blakey, it looks like we might finally have one on the horizon with Cooper Hodge, but he'll be added to the academy pile because I dont know, he'd be lost to rugby or something.

In a year or two the top 4 will be GWS, GC, Sydney and Brisbane. In 20 years those clubs will have the lions share of premierships in that period. All 4 clubs have more promising talent on the horizon for the next few year than we \have picks.

The best talents from WA, VIC, SA, TAS and NT are available on the open market to all 18 clubs. The best talent from NSW or QLD are available to one of 4 clubs (at a discount!), on top of this, these 4 clubs know this and can put them on pathways with clear direction from the age of 14/15, so their development is ahead of the others at 18 as well.

But Jordan Dawson

12

Jordan Dawson

Age

27

Ht

191cm

Wt

91kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.0

4star

K

11.4

4star

HB

5.7

4star

M

4.8

5star

T

2.8

4star

CL

0.6

3star

D

15.7

4star

K

10.9

4star

HB

4.9

3star

M

2.9

3star

T

2.0

3star

CL

0.4

3star

D

11.8

3star

K

7.8

3star

HB

4.0

3star

M

5.0

5star

T

3.0

5star

CL

0.6

3star

requested to got o Adelaide so I guess its all square...

 

[boncer34]

Every club had the opportunity to get those players, that's just smart trading. Melbourne did the same with May and Lever, identified their targets and went and got them.

Except Danger and Cameron didn't want to go home to Melbourne. They wanted to go home to the closest club to their home towns.

Geelong.

The Cats are a superb organisation but they absolutely have an advantage not available to anyone else.

 

[Mr Meeseeks]

Hawks just lack talent. There list has 0 a graders or with potential to be a graders. They are well coached, just don't have the cattle. Mitchell is treating he's players like himself. As a rookie Mitchell worked hard at he's game to be elite, the problem is he could find the footy always and had a good footy brain

How do you propose we get them? Even with hindsight.

 

[Mr Meeseeks]

Except Danger and Cameron didn't want to go home to Melbourne. They wanted to go home to the closest club to their home towns.

Geelong.

The Cats are a superb organisation but they absolutely have an advantage not available to anyone else.

They do, particularly for FAs. A sleepy lifestyle near the beaches with a nice big plot of land doesnt necessarily appeal to a 21 year old, but guys with young families, absolute no brainer.

They also get to play in front of a proper partisan crowd for home games without having to get on a plane every second week.

Its a marvellous setup.

 

[boncer34]

They do, particularly for FAs. A sleepy lifestyle near the beaches with a nice big plot of land doesnt necessarily appeal to a 21 year old, but guys with young families, absolute no brainer.

They also get to play in front of a proper partisan crowd every week without having to get on a plane every second week.

Its a marvellous setup.

I mean that's starting to border into the conspiracy territory for me but the rest is true.

 

[Saab NLAW]

Except Danger and Cameron didn't want to go home to Melbourne. They wanted to go home to the closest club to their home towns.

Geelong.

The Cats are a superb organisation but they absolutely have an advantage not available to anyone else.

They definitely have a location advantage, true, but even with a couple of extra players it's bloody hard to remain competitive. It's not like basketball where 1 great player can carry an average team.

And Denger isn't really that good anyway. There are others who are better

 

[Saab NLAW]

Sicily has not been an A grader this year. Has looked hopeless at times.

Has he ever been an A grader? One of the most overrated players in the comp

 

[Mr Meeseeks]

I mean that's starting to border into the conspiracy territory for me but the rest is true.

Im not referring to the conspiracy, I meant a big plot of land 20 minutes from training is a possibility, particularly for a wealthy footballer. Cant do that in Melbourne. Just like going for a surf.

 

[boncer34]

They definitely have a location advantage, true, but even with a couple of extra players it's bloody hard to remain competitive. It's not like basketball where 1 great player can carry an average team.

And Denger isn't really that good anyway. There are others who are better

Without Danger and Cameron they don't win that flag.

I'm not saying they're average, they're superbly run but Cameron and Danger took that team for contending to winning.

Regardlessthey do have an edge not available to others.