Analysis How did we go to GF to this garbage in less than 3 years

[hey shorty]

Hate the trade.

Ed Richards tracking nicely and would have been handy.

O’Brien and Bailey are around the place and Bonar seems to be hanging on.

Too early to conclude yet, but even just Ed Richards is a bad miss.

Had a bad end to last year but he's playing very well so far this year.

Thought time - Since 2017 it's clear there's a disconnect between players, coaches and admin. Last year we lost Betts, Otten, Douglas, Jacobs, Greenwood, CEY, JJ and Keath. Most of whom we forced out and some with very good reasons for doing so.

However, the playing group have appeared to react very poorly to these decisions as at least half of those guys were much loved members of the club and the playing group. Have the players taken those decisions to heart and we're now seeing a broken group, in part due to that ??

 

[Crow_Magnon]

I still don't buy that 6-6-6 has anything to do with Laird's form collapsing. 6-6-6 only applies at the centre square. It means that we're no longer able to start Charlie Cameron off the back of the square and have him sprint through the middle, hoping for a quick F50 entry, as we did in 2017. It doesn't mean that we can't flood numbers back during general play, which is when the majority of the opposition's F50 entries occur.

How, precisely, has 6-6-6 done this? I could buy what you're selling if 6-6-6 applied at every stoppage, or for the entire game. It doesn't. It only applies at centre bounces. The rule forces Laird to be accountable for the first 30 seconds after a centre bounce, after which time there's no reason why our other players can't have flooded back into defence as they did before.

6-6-6 has hurt us offensively. It's had **** all impact on us defensively, and it's certainly not responsible for Laird's loss of form.

Agree to some extent, but with our poor midfield, the ball never comes out of the backline - without multiple repeat entries. This means Laird, Smith & co, are under pressure all the time. We had get out of gaol cards in 2017, with the likes of McGovern, Lynch and even Tex able to provide targets, with Eddie and Charlie at their feet for any ground-balls. Now we have nothing to go to. If we go to Lynch, even if he does mark the ball, he coughs it straight back up, and Tex is battling to even get near it, given his lack of pace, and every time he doesn't get the ball cleanly it's whisked away, due to the dearth of speedy flankers / forward pockets we now have that could provide some sort of pressure in the past.

 

[Vader]

Agree to some extent, but with our poor midfield, the ball never comes out of the backline - without multiple repeat entries. This means Laird, Smith & co, are under pressure all the time. We had get out of gaol cards in 2017, with the likes of McGovern, Lynch and even Tex able to provide targets, with Eddie and Charlie at their feet for any ground-balls. Now we have nothing to go to. If we go to Lynch, even if he does mark the ball, he coughs it straight back up, and Tex is battling to even get near it, given his lack of pace, and every time he doesn't get the ball cleanly it's whisked away, due to the dearth of speedy flankers / forward pockets we now have that could provide some sort of pressure in the past.

That's all fair enough, and I agree with every word you've writtn... but it has nothing to do with 6-6-6, which is the point that I was making.

 

[Tex200]

Had a bad end to last year but he's playing very well so far this year.

Thought time - Since 2017 it's clear there's a disconnect between players, coaches and admin. Last year we lost Betts, Otten, Douglas, Jacobs, Greenwood, CEY, JJ and Keath. Most of whom we forced out and some with very good reasons for doing so.

However, the playing group have appeared to react very poorly to these decisions as at least half of those guys were much loved members of the club and the playing group. Have the players taken those decisions to heart and we're now seeing a broken group, in part due to that ??

Oh look... who knows. It’s entirely possible and plausible.

I think there’s a range of things that are all interconnected and that have led us to this.

There’s unquestionably bitterness between player and club over 2017. I think though there were some errors culturally in terms of who we shipped out, and that has left the cupboard bare in that regard.

See looking back HG is a huge loss for what he brings off field, I think we undervalued that aspect of him and what he would bring to a rebuild.

It’s beyond question though that LM has been a disaster, with the Pyke continuity mantra stalling development, which is ideally more gradual. This leads to an upheaval and not good for anyone.

We’re in Carlton/Melbourne territory now.

 

[Pilchard_Adams]

I wonder how much of this discussion would exist if Adelaide didnt stab every one of their supporters in the back by paying Skurt under the table?

In 2012 we lost picks 20 and 52. There wasnt much chop in the draft after pick 18 (Grundy). Perhaps a Kamdyn MacIntosh or Lachie Hunter could have been added to the list.

But jeez 2013 hurt. Effectively lost picks 8 and 26. Could have had any of Sheed, McDonald, Cripps, Salem, Zak Jones at 8 and then at 26, could easily have landed Lobb, Zach Merrett, Alex Pearce, Barrass, Aliir.

Our Midfield looks a ton better when it lines up with Crouch, Crouch, Sloane, Smith, Hunter, Sheed, Merrett. Quite possible that 2017 GF wouldnt have been a loss, we wouldnt have thrown a briefcase of money for Gibbs

Means we would have kept picks 10 and 16. Could have landed Fog at 10 regardless. Winning the GF may have seen Cameron stay, he could have had the Gibbs money. But if he left anyway, well Tim Kelly, Liam Ryan, Coleman Jones, Jack Higgins, Ed Richards all available at 12 or 16.

The club may have never signed with Collective Minds, there wouldnt have been a need. McLovin may have stayed. There wouldnt have been a great divide in the club.

No one will ever know the true butterfly effect, but I honestly feel the beginning was the decision to break the rules with Tippett.

 

[thebirdman 24]

I get sick of Roo/Chapman/Fagan referencing 2017. We need to forget about it. That was an abbaration not the years that followed it.

 

[GreyCrow]

I get sick of Roo/Chapman/Fagan referencing 2017. We need to forget about it. That was an abbaration not the years that followed it.

When its all you have

 

[LC40]

I'm all for sending a message to non performers and we need to shake things up but in the end it still comes down to coaching.
You can make all the changes you like but it's the game plan and instructions that have to change.

There is no doubt Matt Crouch has the ability to find the ball and that is a hugely valuable skill.
A hugely valuable skill in our team because he one of the few that gets it consistently week in week out.
The ball in his hands is not in our opponents and it gives us multiple chances to launch an attack.

What has to change is Nick's approach.
Matt sits out this game but so what?
He'll be back in at some stage and should be.
Nick's has to be the one who initiates the change in our game.
He has to drive and ride Crouch and the team to change but IMO it will only happen if Nick's believes in quicker ball movement.

Matt Crouch has to be continuously encouraged to throw away that slow sideways chipping game for a more dynamic attitude.
If the coach has a consistent message and the intent is shown by Crouch then he is still our best opinion in the middle.
It doesn't matter if it takes time, what matters is that Crouch is given clear instructions on how to best help the team.
If Matt won't change then so be it, but Matt needs the opportunity and backing to embrace it.

Nick's has to be the agent of change for these confused footballers who are low on confidence to thrive.
There is real improvement in this squad but Nick's has to have a clear direction on the style of play going forward and sell it to the players.
My worry is Nick's isn't brave enough to adopt a riskier approach or he was the wrong choice from the beginning.
Mistakes and losses I can live if the intent is there, timid football is a death sentence for a club.
Matt Crouch will be the real barometer for our team.
If he is instructed and willing to change his game then we will quickly be heading in the right direction.

 

[skam85]

The ball in his hands is not in our opponents and it gives us multiple chances to launch an attack.

Except it gets in Crouch's hands, then immediately in our opponents hands, giving them multiple chances to launch an attack.

 

[LC40]

Except it gets in Crouch's hands, then immediately in our opponents hands, giving them multiple chances to launch an attack.

That's not true, he ranked 3rd in effective disposals in 2017, 5th in effective disposals in 2019 and 6th in 2018.
He is just a momentum stopper.
He just has no urgency in his game,holds on to the ball for far too long and takes the easiest option.
Posters should not forget he is a ball magnet and a talent but this sideways type of game should be discouraged, it has to change and it's up to the coach to illicit that change.
Put it right on the player but support him. He's only 25 and we have very few accumulators like Matt.
This is Nick's team to develop, I hope he is willing to give Matt a chance to revitalize our midfield.

 

[skam85]

That's not true, he ranked 3rd in effective disposals in 2017, 5th in effective disposals in 2019 and 6th in 2018.

It’s 2020.

 

[LC40]

It’s 2020.

That is such a nonsensical retort.

 

[pjcrows]

I get sick of Roo/Chapman/Fagan referencing 2017. We need to forget about it. That was an abbaration not the years that followed it.

This is correct.

Let's look at the last 10 years.

2010 we were never in it.
2011 we were never in it.
2012 we had a favourable draw and a new fresh coach. Ultimately weren't ready or we would've beaten Sydney in our first final.
2013 we were never in it.
2014 we were never in it.
2015 was the start of something, and we showed great resolve that carried us through, but we were never in it.
2016 we were absolutely in it but the untrustworthy playing group choked.
2017 we lead the competition but choked plain and simple.
2018 we were never in it.
2019 we were never in it.

So 2 out of the last 10 years we were genuinely a premiership chance. Yet our list management and admin, and coaches at selection, behaved across that decade like we weren't that far off and only needed some tweaks.

Today's predicament is a result of a decade+ of poor football decisions.

 

[Sack Chapman]

I wonder how much of this discussion would exist if Adelaide didnt stab every one of their supporters in the back by paying Skurt under the table?

In 2012 we lost picks 20 and 52. There wasnt much chop in the draft after pick 18 (Grundy). Perhaps a Kamdyn MacIntosh or Lachie Hunter could have been added to the list.

But jeez 2013 hurt. Effectively lost picks 8 and 26. Could have had any of Sheed, McDonald, Cripps, Salem, Zak Jones at 8 and then at 26, could easily have landed Lobb, Zach Merrett, Alex Pearce, Barrass, Aliir.

Our Midfield looks a ton better when it lines up with Crouch, Crouch, Sloane, Smith, Hunter, Sheed, Merrett. Quite possible that 2017 GF wouldnt have been a loss, we wouldnt have thrown a briefcase of money for Gibbs

Means we would have kept picks 10 and 16. Could have landed Fog at 10 regardless. Winning the GF may have seen Cameron stay, he could have had the Gibbs money. But if he left anyway, well Tim Kelly, Liam Ryan, Coleman Jones, Jack Higgins, Ed Richards all available at 12 or 16.

The club may have never signed with Collective Minds, there wouldnt have been a need. McLovin may have stayed. There wouldnt have been a great divide in the club.

No one will ever know the true butterfly effect, but I honestly feel the beginning was the decision to break the rules with Tippett.

Good post. This and being unable to retain genuine talent. How much better would the GF team look with Davis, Dangerfield, Gunston and Vince.

 

[King Elvis]

I wonder how much of this discussion would exist if Adelaide didnt stab every one of their supporters in the back by paying Skurt under the table?

In 2012 we lost picks 20 and 52. There wasnt much chop in the draft after pick 18 (Grundy). Perhaps a Kamdyn MacIntosh or Lachie Hunter could have been added to the list.

But jeez 2013 hurt. Effectively lost picks 8 and 26. Could have had any of Sheed, McDonald, Cripps, Salem, Zak Jones at 8 and then at 26, could easily have landed Lobb, Zach Merrett, Alex Pearce, Barrass, Aliir.

Our Midfield looks a ton better when it lines up with Crouch, Crouch, Sloane, Smith, Hunter, Sheed, Merrett. Quite possible that 2017 GF wouldnt have been a loss, we wouldnt have thrown a briefcase of money for Gibbs

Means we would have kept picks 10 and 16. Could have landed Fog at 10 regardless. Winning the GF may have seen Cameron stay, he could have had the Gibbs money. But if he left anyway, well Tim Kelly, Liam Ryan, Coleman Jones, Jack Higgins, Ed Richards all available at 12 or 16.

The club may have never signed with Collective Minds, there wouldnt have been a need. McLovin may have stayed. There wouldnt have been a great divide in the club.

No one will ever know the true butterfly effect, but I honestly feel the beginning was the decision to break the rules with Tippett.

I think you’re spot on - and I’d add the lack of accountability for that debacle was a hammer blow to the integrity and culture of the AFC.

 

[Mutineer]

I wonder how much of this discussion would exist if Adelaide didnt stab every one of their supporters in the back by paying Skurt under the table?

In 2012 we lost picks 20 and 52. There wasnt much chop in the draft after pick 18 (Grundy). Perhaps a Kamdyn MacIntosh or Lachie Hunter could have been added to the list.

But jeez 2013 hurt. Effectively lost picks 8 and 26. Could have had any of Sheed, McDonald, Cripps, Salem, Zak Jones at 8 and then at 26, could easily have landed Lobb, Zach Merrett, Alex Pearce, Barrass, Aliir.

Our Midfield looks a ton better when it lines up with Crouch, Crouch, Sloane, Smith, Hunter, Sheed, Merrett. Quite possible that 2017 GF wouldnt have been a loss, we wouldnt have thrown a briefcase of money for Gibbs

Means we would have kept picks 10 and 16. Could have landed Fog at 10 regardless. Winning the GF may have seen Cameron stay, he could have had the Gibbs money. But if he left anyway, well Tim Kelly, Liam Ryan, Coleman Jones, Jack Higgins, Ed Richards all available at 12 or 16.

The club may have never signed with Collective Minds, there wouldnt have been a need. McLovin may have stayed. There wouldnt have been a great divide in the club.

No one will ever know the true butterfly effect, but I honestly feel the beginning was the decision to break the rules with Tippett.

Lachie Hunter wasn't an option, he was a Bulldogs father/son. father Mark Hunter.

 

[Pilchard_Adams]

Lachie Hunter wasn't an option, he was a Bulldogs father/son. father Mark Hunter.

Thanks for that.

 

[Pilchard_Adams]

I think you’re spot on - and I’d add the lack of accountability for that debacle was a hammer blow to the integrity and culture of the AFC.

Yep, it was not dealt with well. I felt at the time this would come back and bite us and it was never going to bite because we lost a Contested Marking forward who could average 2 goals a game, it was because while every other teams 2012/2013 draft picks developed into players and eventually into key pieces in their systems, we missed out. It was never going to show for at least 5 years, but now it is.

Our real Tippett punishment is a wooden spoon or 2.

 

[Pilchard_Adams]

Good post. This and being unable to retain genuine talent. How much better would the GF team look with Davis, Dangerfield, Gunston and Vince.

The talent retaining topic is a tough one. There are so many variables as to why a player leaves that it is hard to interpret the reasons unless the player has an honest, open, no holds barred interview. Players in the AFL media have their hands tied. Interviews are scripted to what should be said. Reasons for for requesting a trade may well include these:

I hate Adelaide, its not a place I want to spend 10 years of my life
I had a fight with some of the boys and realised that there is a clash, I wanted a new environment
The people up top at the AFC cant be trusted
Tippett got under the table payments, but they refused to give them to me
I dont feel valued as a team member.
Adelaide are not going to win a flag, and I want one during my career
Team xxxxx offered me 300k more a year, im taking that
The camp messed me up, I never signed with the AFC to be put through that kind of thing.
Theres an in crowd, a boys club, and I am not part of it.

But they wont be revealed to the public for years, if ever.

I do feel Davis and Danger left for legit reasons, money and to go home. Gunston I am not sure about, we see him as a spoiled brat with only child syndrome but perhaps theres more to it. Vince I feel was pushed.

We all know that if we had a list including Cameron, Gunston, Davis, Danger, Lyons, Sauce, Betts, McGovern, Lever, Keath, Henderson, Greenwood and co, the main page Adelaides Big Footy would contain some very different thread titles...

 

[Sack Chapman]

I think you’re spot on - and I’d add the lack of accountability for that debacle was a hammer blow to the integrity and culture of the AFC.

And the club punished the architect of that horrendous moment in our history by giving his son a job.

 

[feenix67]

And the club punished the architect of that horrendous moment in our history by giving his son a job.

To be fair, that bloke also got us the bloke who took us to two flags.

 

[hey shorty]

To be fair, that bloke also got us the bloke who took us to two flags.

Justin didn't bring a coach or a ruthless attitude with him mind you.

 

[moogerfooger]

Everything else notwithstanding, the side was at least competitive in Round 1. You would expect a drop off with the realization the group was done chasing flags but something else happened between Rounds 1 and 2. We shouldn't be this bad.

 

[hey shorty]

Everything else notwithstanding, the side was at least competitive in Round 1. You would expect a drop off with the realization the group was done chasing flags but something else happened between Rounds 1 and 2. We shouldn't be this bad.

We were still ordinary in the middle though.

If we had a half decent day in there we would have won by 5 goals.

 

[feenix67]

Everything else notwithstanding, the side was at least competitive in Round 1. You would expect a drop off with the realization the group was done chasing flags but something else happened between Rounds 1 and 2. We shouldn't be this bad.

I reckon the break just crystallised that realisation for a lot of senior players and they lost that competitive edge.