Vic How would you rate Daniel Andrews' performance as Victorian Premier? - Part 6

[Crankyhawk]

Is PCR testing in crisis?

Facilities are “closing” before official opening hours because of long queues and people are waiting 72-96 hours for results.

You’d think 24 hour PCR testing is a no brainer?

There were warning signs 3 weeks ago and Jeroen Weimar rejected the 24 hour testing idea, saying people simply needed to “get tested early in the morning or late in the day”.

“Former World Health Organisation epidemiologist Adrian Esterman said wait times were “absolutely” deterring people from getting swabs”

24 hr testing is a not enough staffing issue - the testers are nursing staff which are also needed to staff hospitals.
the private pathology companies have always been 9-5 monday to friday organisations

 

[eddiesmith]

Is PCR testing in crisis?

Facilities are “closing” before official opening hours because of long queues and people are waiting 72-96 hours for results.

You’d think 24 hour PCR testing is a no brainer?

There were warning signs 3 weeks ago and Jeroen Weimar rejected the 24 hour testing idea, saying people simply needed to “get tested early in the morning or late in the day”.

“Former World Health Organisation epidemiologist Adrian Esterman said wait times were “absolutely” deterring people from getting swabs”

I think the problem is the delays in getting results show they don’t have the lab capacity to increase testing times.

 

[eddiesmith]

Not quite. More testing a sample to give a representation. So, as an example, test 100 to get a percentage.

i read the comment slightly differently - no longer testing "every single" positive which to me reads that they will test a sample of the positives to get an idea of the omicron prevalence as a percentage of new positives (currently 1.7% of positive tests). So while exact omicron numbers won't be available we may be able to have more timely idea from the sampling. Rather than having 1600-2000 positives to test each day (and likely being backlogged, perhaps analysing positives from several days ago) they might sample 100 or so positives which they can run same day/ within 24 hours so you get more timely tracking of what omicron proportion you get each day.

edit bruce beat me to the explanation

Thanks, I only caught a snippet on news so obviously misheard.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Is PCR testing in crisis?

Facilities are “closing” before official opening hours because of long queues and people are waiting 72-96 hours for results.

You’d think 24 hour PCR testing is a no brainer?

There were warning signs 3 weeks ago and Jeroen Weimar rejected the 24 hour testing idea, saying people simply needed to “get tested early in the morning or late in the day”.

“Former World Health Organisation epidemiologist Adrian Esterman said wait times were “absolutely” deterring people from getting swabs”

your the bottleneck isnt the testing sites. its the laboratories.

the private sector will only import so many more PCR machines because they dont want these things gathering dust once the covid testing bonanza passes.

if you want lab capacity increased, it will need to be funded by govt by either effectively paying for the machines and giving them to the labs, or by agreeing to guaranteed minimum test volume contracts over the next three years (which will offset the cost of the machines the the minimum payment guarantees)

 

[adogsfan5]

Is PCR testing in crisis?

Facilities are “closing” before official opening hours because of long queues and people are waiting 72-96 hours for results.

You’d think 24 hour PCR testing is a no brainer?

There were warning signs 3 weeks ago and Jeroen Weimar rejected the 24 hour testing idea, saying people simply needed to “get tested early in the morning or late in the day”.

“Former World Health Organisation epidemiologist Adrian Esterman said wait times were “absolutely” deterring people from getting swabs”

As per my post just above, they’re looking at bringing more RAT tests in for interstate travellers and casual close contacts which will help with the load.

 

[radiojake]

Looks like RAT tests may be the way forward for travel and casual close contacts. Common sense prevails.

Brother tested positive about 6 weeks ago - only reason he tested was because he gets tested weekly at his work (they deal with positive patients all the time) - if he didn't do weekly tests he wouldn't have got tested as didn't feel crook

after testing positive and isolating at home, he did a RAT test - said negative

Started thinking maybe he had a false positive as he didn't feel crook

6 hours later did another RAT, then tested positive - -

But there is probably some merit in just regular (say weekly or so) RAT tests at home anyway

-----

I would LOVE to know the breakdown of positive PCR tests from the last week of people who only got tested to go interstate (ie not a close contact or showing symptons - I know when i got tested they asked where i was going and I saw them write South Australia on my test slip form so i assume the data is possible to collate

 

[Brad Goodman]

Brother tested positive about 6 weeks ago - only reason he tested was because he gets tested weekly at his work (they deal with positive patients all the time) - if he didn't do weekly tests he wouldn't have got tested as didn't feel crook

after testing positive and isolating at home, he did a RAT test - said negative

Started thinking maybe he had a false positive as he didn't feel crook

6 hours later did another RAT, then tested positive - -

But there is probably some merit in just regular (say weekly or so) RAT tests at home anyway

-----

I would LOVE to know the breakdown of positive PCR tests from the last week of people who only got tested to go interstate (ie not a close contact or showing symptons - I know when i got tested they asked where i was going and I saw them write South Australia on my test slip form so i assume the data is possible to collate

Testing numbers have dropped post Christmas, possibly as there’s far fewer travellers compared to pre Christmas (just a guess though). Case numbers steady and the positivity rate higher so my follow up guess is that most positives were and are from feeling symptoms or being pinged.

That said I do know someone who missed going home to Queensland for Xmas because of a positive test. Had no symptoms when he got the result but it must have been early as he felt progressively worse the couple of days afterwards.

 

[adogsfan5]

Brother tested positive about 6 weeks ago - only reason he tested was because he gets tested weekly at his work (they deal with positive patients all the time) - if he didn't do weekly tests he wouldn't have got tested as didn't feel crook

after testing positive and isolating at home, he did a RAT test - said negative

Started thinking maybe he had a false positive as he didn't feel crook

6 hours later did another RAT, then tested positive - -

But there is probably some merit in just regular (say weekly or so) RAT tests at home anyway

-----

I would LOVE to know the breakdown of positive PCR tests from the last week of people who only got tested to go interstate (ie not a close contact or showing symptons - I know when i got tested they asked where i was going and I saw them write South Australia on my test slip form so i assume the data is possible to collate

From memory - NSW said a quarter was for travelling. Not sure about other states. Jeroen hates the idea of doing a PCR test to travel interstate and wanted it scrapped. So perhaps a solid % for Victoria if that’s the case. But I’m only guessing.

I like the idea of a home test kit. Keep 5-10 of them at home and do 2-3 if you aren’t feeling well, if you want to be stricter, do one a week to keep tabs on yourself as you said above. But nobody is going to do this if it’s going to cost an arm and a leg. I would be happy if a pack of 3 cost me $10-$20.

 

[eddiesmith]

Testing numbers have dropped post Christmas, possibly as there’s far fewer travellers compared to pre Christmas (just a guess though). Case numbers steady and the positivity rate higher so my follow up guess is that most positives were and are from feeling symptoms or being pinged.

That said I do know someone who missed going home to Queensland for Xmas because of a positive test. Had no symptoms when he got the result but it must have been early as he felt progressively worse the couple of days afterwards.

Testing numbers would also be well down due to a lack of testing sites open on Xmas day.

I assume the number of tests in the daily case numbers is how many they’ve processed that day, 55,000 would seem about right for Xmas day rather than the 75,000 they announced yesterday which news claimed was Xmas day tests.

 

[Gralin]

Testing seems a complete disaster currently
Website tells you places are open that are closed

Way more people than tests available 3-6 hour waits assuming you don't just get told to try again tomorrow

 

[BruceFromBalnarring]

From memory - NSW said a quarter was for travelling. Not sure about other states. Jeroen hates the idea of doing a PCR test to travel interstate and wanted it scrapped. So perhaps a solid % for Victoria if that’s the case. But I’m only guessing.

I like the idea of a home test kit. Keep 5-10 of them at home and do 2-3 if you aren’t feeling well, if you want to be stricter, do one a week to keep tabs on yourself as you said above. But nobody is going to do this if it’s going to cost an arm and a leg. I would be happy if a pack of 3 cost me $10-$20.

That’s the problem though, they do cost. When there was an outbreak at the kids school towards the end of term we burned through about $300 real quick (mainly to ensure daughter was ok to do dance concert).

 

[BruceFromBalnarring]

Is PCR testing in crisis?

Facilities are “closing” before official opening hours because of long queues and people are waiting 72-96 hours for results.

You’d think 24 hour PCR testing is a no brainer?

There were warning signs 3 weeks ago and Jeroen Weimar rejected the 24 hour testing idea, saying people simply needed to “get tested early in the morning or late in the day”.

“Former World Health Organisation epidemiologist Adrian Esterman said wait times were “absolutely” deterring people from getting swabs”

If that’s what Weimar said, then that’s so disconnected from his apparent area of responsibility he should resign. If.

 

[Sttew]

your the bottleneck isnt the testing sites. its the laboratories.

the private sector will only import so many more PCR machines because they dont want these things gathering dust once the covid testing bonanza passes.

if you want lab capacity increased, it will need to be funded by govt by either effectively paying for the machines and giving them to the labs, or by agreeing to guaranteed minimum test volume contracts over the next three years (which will offset the cost of the machines the the minimum payment guarantees)

It’s a twofold problem, as I see it. If test facilities are shutting the gate before official opening time because too many people have queued up that tells me testing is an issue? Then there is the lab analysis.

Maybe it’s time for the private lab companies to give something back. They have made squillions out of Covid

Almost twice as many people are being tested ATM as compared with Delta during lockdown

 

[Ned_Flanders]

It’s a twofold problem, as I see it. If test facilities are shutting the gate before official opening time because too many people have queued up that tells me testing is an issue? Then there is the lab analysis.

Maybe it’s time for the private lab companies to give something back. They have made squillions out of Covid

Almost twice as many people are being tested ATM as compared with Delta during lockdown

on the first - this is 100% about lab capacity. the reason they close the door on the testing sites is they are not wanting to have 3-5 day TAT for results.

on the second, the private labs will give zero back. they are in this to make a profit, and australia doesnt have a public testing system thats accredited and of the scope needed to pressure the pricing

 

[tangolikelama]

So this is running rampant through my social circle and so many have tested positive via PCR but negative multiple times to rapids..

 

[Sttew]

on the first - this is 100% about lab capacity. the reason they close the door on the testing sites is they are not wanting to have 3-5 day TAT for results.

on the second, the private labs will give zero back. they are in this to make a profit, and australia doesnt have a public testing system thats accredited and of the scope needed to pressure the pricing

All the more reason to scrap tourism testing and to replace PCR with RAT where possible.

 

[Crankyhawk]

Brother tested positive about 6 weeks ago - only reason he tested was because he gets tested weekly at his work (they deal with positive patients all the time) - if he didn't do weekly tests he wouldn't have got tested as didn't feel crook

after testing positive and isolating at home, he did a RAT test - said negative

Started thinking maybe he had a false positive as he didn't feel crook

6 hours later did another RAT, then tested positive - -

But there is probably some merit in just regular (say weekly or so) RAT tests at home anyway

-----

I would LOVE to know the breakdown of positive PCR tests from the last week of people who only got tested to go interstate (ie not a close contact or showing symptons - I know when i got tested they asked where i was going and I saw them write South Australia on my test slip form so i assume the data is possible to collate

I heard a quote on radio (abc radio but not sure who they were interviewing) where the rate of positives found where test is purely for travel and no symptoms was 1 in 1000

 

[Crankyhawk]

All the more reason to scrap tourism testing and to replace PCR with RAT where possible.

particularly when covid is now established in all states apart from WA

 

[Ned_Flanders]

All the more reason to scrap tourism testing and to replace PCR with RAT where possible.

RAT is not accurate, its only good for a screening measure. off mem, its 70% to give an accurate positive result

RAT is perfect for workers who need frequent periodic testing. The whole point of border movement testing (both domestic and international) is to make sure you dont have it absolutely)

 

[Ned_Flanders]

particularly when covid is now established in all states apart from WA

there is no will in most of the states to do this yet.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

So this is running rampant through my social circle and so many have tested positive via PCR but negative multiple times to rapids..

its because they have high chances of giving false positives and false negatives. they should only be treated as a screening tool, not empirical confirmation of your status

 

[Sttew]

RAT is not accurate, its only good for a screening measure. off mem, its 70% to give an accurate positive result

RAT is perfect for workers who need frequent periodic testing. The whole point of border movement testing (both domestic and international) is to make sure you dont have it absolutely)

90% accurate was the figure quoted on radio by some expert yesterday

 

[Ned_Flanders]

90% accurate was the figure quoted on radio by some expert yesterday

I read 70% a couple of months ago

FWIW 90% is still junk

 

[Crankyhawk]

90% accurate was the figure quoted on radio by some expert yesterday

accuracy is complex - you need to see sensitivity and specificity (chance of a RAT being positive when you are PCR +ve/ truly infectious and chance of RAT being negative when you are also PCR -ve)

There are times where a previously infected person where the PCR remains positive but they are no longer infectious and the RAT being negative will reflect that correctly they aren't infectious; theres some thought that RAT may also better reflect whether someone is infectious or not.

 

[Sttew]

FWIW 90% is still junk

What’s better? 90% accuracy on RAT or people simply staying away from PCR test facilities because of queues and delays?