News Impact of COVID-19 on season 2020 and beyond

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Purpletown said:
I noticed this in an article recently. It's from Seneca the younger, a Roman stoic philosopher (4 B.C. - A.D. 65)

"There are more things likely to frighten us than to crush us; we suffer more often in imagination than in reality"

My personal opinion is that we will get through this reasonably well as a Nation but it is rather scary right now. Unfortunately there is a lot of counter productive hype from the media at this time. As a result there is a degree of anxiety from us poor punters because we tend to examine the worst case scenario to help us assess our future prospects. The biggest long term effect will be economic stagnation well into 2021 before things return to a more normal situation i.m.o.

Individually it has, and will be devastating to some people who will lose their jobs, businesses and homes in some cases. I know from my own experience of past high inflation, recessions and natural disasters that you never know what you are capable of until you get pushed into a corner. To those who are doing it tough I wish you well and hope everything works out for you.
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I read Seneca's "Letters from a Stoic" recently - good read that I can recommend.

Seneca would probably tell us all that things WILL get much worse then we think, BUT that we are also stronger than we think and can get through them.

As a person that suffered very bad asthma throughout his life he would have been in the "High Risk" category; he probably also would be one investing in shares right now on the basis he was alive to do it.

I guess he would also advise not to revel in other misfortunes of others; that would probably include pointing and laughing at the mistakes of politicians/companies/others recently who may have made the wrong call on things.

"Why cry over parts of life, when all of it call for tears?" was what he told his wife, as she sobbed after they were told that Emperor Nero had ordered Seneca to disembowel himself.
 

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If the games are crammed - to every 4 or 6 days, I’d expect to see clubs go deep on their list due to injury prevention and keeping players fresh

Someone like Tom North could get an opportunity and hopefully takes it


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Cayman Docker said:
The advise of the public health experts is undoubtedly about to change, and nobody is being irrational, it is what it is.
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Like these clearly unqualified public health experts who continue to say that extensive testing to find, isolate and trace cases is the best practice?

World Health Organisation’s Dr. Bruce Aylward, who led the international team of 25 health experts looking into how China suppressed the outbreak said,
“I think the key learning from China is speed – it’s all about the speed. The faster you can find the cases, isolate the cases, and track their close contacts, the more successful you’re going to be.”

WHO’s executive director, Dr. Michael Ryan, said some countries “have been too willing to give up on contact tracing at a very early stage of the fight against the epidemic.”

He emphasised that the strategy is an effective, inexpensive, and “very basic public health intervention” compared to broad measures like social distancing, which is more burdensome and doesn’t work if there’s no cultural buy-in.

Chinese public health officials have attempted to trace every single one of the 80,000-plus cases in that country.

But instead I'm seriously considering taking your advice that to "round up all those in contact with the 12 locally transmitted cases and put them in cotton wool and it will make a difference is ludicrous". Please realise I wouldn't be posting anything on here if I didn't have a credible source for it. I implore you and others to do the same as there is far too much false information being spread as it is.
 

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wayToGo_ said:
I will happily concede on any point if you or raffrox or anyone else can prove (or even just provide some contrary evidence) that anything I have posted in this thread is false (without taking it out of context of course). I have tried my best to only provide information from credible sources. I get that some people may not want to hear it. Not agreeing with it or not liking it doesn't make it false though.
Click to expand...

I've said a few times that I agree with a lot of what your saying but I just fundamentally disagree with the degree of certainty you are talking about things and your response to others that have a different view to you.

Everyone is making informed guesses on whats going on and what to do. Some have more data but we are about two and a half months in here. Information is constantly changing and it is clear that even in the public eye amongst those with more information than us there is not 100% clarity.

Some quick examples...
  • This Sydney Anaesthetist - https://www.dailymercury.com.au/news/doctor-dads-virus-protest-outside-school/3974153/
  • Sporting leagues around the world having a different response when compared to the AFL and NRL.
  • The AFL saying that for the 11 and a half of the 12 hours before they decided to go ahead with the league, the season was actually going to be cancelled. It was a line ball decision.
  • Check out the comments from this Telethon Kids post. There's admissions that they don't know exactly if children can transmit the virus or not - https://www.facebook.com/Telethon Kids/videos/2274881046148279/
Small examples but still examples of people making big decisions with the best information they have at the time. Things are changing daily. You post as though you are 100% certain of the outcomes. Some of your posts are just direct advice to what people should do!! You have an opinion, that is all. The experiences and views of others can be just as valid even though you don't agree with them.

I feel that you dismiss people who have a different opinion to you as panicking. People disagreeing and having a more critical view is not necessarily panic. It could be just their opinion and as i stated above, those who's jobs it is to know more are still not 100%.

Maybe just cool your jets on trying to disprove everybody and acknowledge that there's uncertainty. We're not Italy but we sure ain't Singapore either. Australia's situation will be Australia's situation. We all hope for the best but it's certainly human nature for us to take in the same information and to come to a different conclusion.
 
Snuffaluphagus said:
What the fu** is that? Is this a spam email?
Click to expand...
A while ago a bunch of websites had their security compromised and their passwords were taken along with the attached emails, so they send you an email with a previous password listed trying to extort money from you.

I'm pretty sure you can download the actual lists of passwords and emails, one of my guy mates sent me a text saying I needed to make sure I changed my passwords because my email from neopets or whatever was compromised.

You can check if you're impacted by these hacks here

haveibeenpwned.com

Have I Been Pwned: Check if your email has been compromised in a data breach

Have I Been Pwned allows you to search across multiple data breaches to see if your email address or phone number has been compromised.
haveibeenpwned.com haveibeenpwned.com

And if so, you just change your passwords.
 
Snuffaluphagus said:
What the fu** is that? Is this a spam email?
Click to expand...
I've been getting them for years - I suspect it was from an old hack of X-Box or Play Station and the password they show me is very old and one I used in my gaming days. At one stage I would get two or three a week, but had not had one for a long time. I guess the Corona virus has given them new hope :)
 
raffrox said:
I've said a few times that I agree with a lot of what your saying but I just fundamentally disagree with the degree of certainty you are talking about things and your response to others that have a different view to you.

Everyone is making informed guesses on whats going on and what to do. Some have more data but we are about two and a half months in here. Information is constantly changing and it is clear that even in the public eye amongst those with more information than us there is not 100% clarity.

Some quick examples...
  • This Sydney Anaesthetist - https://www.dailymercury.com.au/news/doctor-dads-virus-protest-outside-school/3974153/
  • Sporting leagues around the world having a different response when compared to the AFL and NRL.
  • The AFL saying that for the 11 and a half of the 12 hours before they decided to go ahead with the league, the season was actually going to be cancelled. It was a line ball decision.
  • Check out the comments from this Telethon Kids post. There's admissions that they don't know exactly if children can transmit the virus or not - https://www.facebook.com/Telethon Kids/videos/2274881046148279/
Small examples but still examples of people making big decisions with the best information they have at the time. Things are changing daily. You post as though you are 100% certain of the outcomes. Some of your posts are just direct advice to what people should do!! You have an opinion, that is all. The experiences and views of others can be just as valid even though you don't agree with them.

I feel that you dismiss people who have a different opinion to you as panicking. People disagreeing and having a more critical view is not necessarily panic. It could be just their opinion and as i stated above, those who's jobs it is to know more are still not 100%.

Maybe just cool your jets on trying to disprove everybody and acknowledge that there's uncertainty. We're not Italy but we sure ain't Singapore either. Australia's situation will be Australia's situation. We all hope for the best but it's certainly human nature for us to take in the same information and to come to a different conclusion.
Click to expand...
Go back and read my posts. I almost always qualify what I post with "it's early days" or "but we can't guarantee it". Most of the heat in this conversation started because Cayman guy, you and the other guy came out and called people delusional for claiming certain measures and decisions were sensible ones - saying we needed to just shut everything down instead. I could have ignored it (most people seemed to have) but it was completely unfounded and I strongly believe some countries are struggling because they aren't being sensible and targeted (just like Australia wasn't when it delayed travel restrictions and aged care visitor restrictions).

For instance the first conversation looking at the risk to players. Remember I said I would be shocked if the AFL didn't cancel but also said the risk isn't any greater for players? The experts came out and said word for word there is no extra risk, and since then some have said the risk is actually far less due to isolation. Do I think we'll see a full season now? Nope because a lot has to go right but if the risk isn't any higher I still don't see any problem with them trying.

I also said people demanding schools be closed down aren't thinking of the knock-on effects, and also that the early data suggests children are less likely to spread the disease (with a qualification it was early data). I was again told it is crazy and schools should be closed down. Since then the government decided not to shut down schools stating 30% of our healthcare workers would be unable to work and that would be devastating. We've also found out only 2.9% of cases in China were children under 19yo, no-one under 30yo has died in Italy, and Australia's Deputy Chief Medical Officer came out yesterday and said they've found children don't appear to be spreading it between themselves (instead all cases to date they've gotten it from an adult). I therefore still don't see an urgency/risk needing to close down schools but family circumstances aren't all the same and if parents choose to take their kids out that's their decision. I don't think mixed messages to parents has helped and that has caused some unnecessary panic that principals have had to wear.

Similarly yesterday Cayman guy says I'm being ludicrous for thinking tracing the community cases is going to make any difference. Yet the experts at WHO have come out and said this is the most effective way to deal with this crisis - having seen it as key to China's handling of it and also why Singapore, Hong Kong etc are handling it far better than other countries. Crickets on this topic since I posted that.

You guys are still unwilling to address the topic. Look at all your last posts - you are obsessed with telling me how unreasonable I am being. "it's like talking to a brick wall", "maybe cool your jets"... I get it, people resort to making it personal when they realise what they think is right actually isn't, and what they think is delusional is actually really sensible. Conversely I have never once said directly that you or any poster on here is panicking or acting irrationally... I have said the community is and that is highly concerning, as we can see from the hoarding of toilet rolls etc. Half the problem is the spread of mis-information based on random opinions (that are biased) rather than coming from the people actually qualified to provide sensible advice.

For instance I went digging and found out yesterday that Dr Andrew Miller will likely be pre-selected at the next election. Clearly his main motivation during this crisis appears to be building his public profile and tarnishing the reputation of the government. Is everything he says wrong? Absolutely not but it's pretty hard to treat him as a credible and unbiased source of information and advice once you have this context.

If anyone is interpreting any of this as not understanding the seriousness of what is going on I assure you that's not the case at all. There will be heaps of deaths - I am concerned about my many friends and family around the world in the severe at-risk demographic like everyone. But from a macro level public health level we are only going to get through this relatively well if we act sensibly and learn from the countries that have had success more so than those that seem to be a bit like headless chooks (eg US and UK). How about we agree to just ignore each other's posts on the topic?
 
wayToGo_ said:
That's the main one I use (along with WHO but knowing it is a day out of date) and covid19data.com.au for a more local breakdown when it is updated a few times a day.
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Man, that ones terrific, thanks. I hope its reliable given its volunteer and community run
 
salim malik said:
Why not settle down and follow the advice of the medical experts.
Not following the experts advice is what has got us into the climate change mess.
Me , I,m hold up with my laptop, smart TV, guitar and ample supplies and just wait it out Hopefully. :)
Click to expand...

Because some people know better.
 
wayToGo_ said:
Go back and read my posts. I almost always qualify what I post with "it's early days" or "but we can't guarantee it". Most of the heat in this conversation started because Cayman guy, you and the other guy came out and called people delusional for claiming certain measures and decisions were sensible ones - saying we needed to just shut everything down instead. I could have ignored it (most people seemed to have) but it was completely unfounded and I strongly believe some countries are struggling because they aren't being sensible and targeted (just like Australia wasn't when it delayed travel restrictions and aged care visitor restrictions).

For instance the first conversation looking at the risk to players. Remember I said I would be shocked if the AFL didn't cancel but also said the risk isn't any greater for players? The experts came out and said word for word there is no extra risk, and since then some have said the risk is actually far less due to isolation. Do I think we'll see a full season now? Nope because a lot has to go right but if the risk isn't any higher I still don't see any problem with them trying.

I also said people demanding schools be closed down aren't thinking of the knock-on effects, and also that the early data suggests children are less likely to spread the disease (with a qualification it was early data). I was again told it is crazy and schools should be closed down. Since then the government decided not to shut down schools stating 30% of our healthcare workers would be unable to work and that would be devastating. We've also found out only 2.9% of cases in China were children under 19yo, no-one under 30yo has died in Italy, and Australia's Deputy Chief Medical Officer came out yesterday and said they've found children don't appear to be spreading it between themselves (instead all cases to date they've gotten it from an adult). I therefore still don't see an urgency/risk needing to close down schools but family circumstances aren't all the same and if parents choose to take their kids out that's their decision. I don't think mixed messages to parents has helped and that has caused some unnecessary panic that principals have had to wear.

Similarly yesterday Cayman guy says I'm being ludicrous for thinking tracing the community cases is going to make any difference. Yet the experts at WHO have come out and said this is the most effective way to deal with this crisis - having seen it as key to China's handling of it and also why Singapore, Hong Kong etc are handling it far better than other countries. Crickets on this topic since I posted that.

You guys are still unwilling to address the topic. Look at all your last posts - you are obsessed with telling me how unreasonable I am being. "it's like talking to a brick wall", "maybe cool your jets"... I get it, people resort to making it personal when they realise what they think is right actually isn't, and what they think is delusional is actually really sensible. Conversely I have never once said directly that you or any poster on here is panicking or acting irrationally... I have said the community is and that is highly concerning, as we can see from the hoarding of toilet rolls etc. Half the problem is the spread of mis-information based on random opinions (that are biased) rather than coming from the people actually qualified to provide sensible advice.

For instance I went digging and found out yesterday that Dr Andrew Miller will likely be pre-selected at the next election. Clearly his main motivation during this crisis appears to be building his public profile and tarnishing the reputation of the government. Is everything he says wrong? Absolutely not but it's pretty hard to treat him as a credible and unbiased source of information and advice once you have this context.

If anyone is interpreting any of this as not understanding the seriousness of what is going on I assure you that's not the case at all. There will be heaps of deaths - I am concerned about my many friends and family around the world in the severe at-risk demographic like everyone. But from a macro level public health level we are only going to get through this relatively well if we act sensibly and learn from the countries that have had success more so than those that seem to be a bit like headless chooks (eg US and UK). How about we agree to just ignore each other's posts on the topic?
Click to expand...

I'm not going to address your facts and research here. It's not because I don't agree. Like I said I agree with most that you post. As I said before, it's more about how it comes across.

Firstly, 'cool your jets' wasn't meant to be a personal slight. If you saw it as that then I apologise. It was a casual way of me suggesting for you to maybe try relax a little. Things are a bit intense right now.

I didn't say the brick wall comment (I did like it though) but perhaps its the intensity of the message that you're sending. I've been referred to as similar more than a few times on this board(!!) so I didn't see it as an issue but again I could see how you could perceive that being personal.

I do feel that you have lumped in quite a few peoples ideas and posts in with what you think my views are. I'm not a fan of that being the case. I too feel I've been generalised and dismissed by you. I don't think I've ever said to close schools, if I did then I can say I'm not as big of a fan of that now. I don't think I've ever called you delusional. I was passionate about the players playing and I still have concerns about this. It's such a massive responsibility for the players and I do feel there will be 'collateral damage'. Honestly after watching last night I'm 50-50 on what the right call was.

All I'm trying to say is that not all this stuff is black and white. Let's make this not about point scoring and who is 'wrong or right'. It will get us nowhere ultimately. I'm on your side (i.e. getting the best outcome possible for as many as possible in this situation). As you said in another post, there's no winners here.

I'm just suggesting to ease up on the intensity of the conversation and for us to all to maybe have some compassion all round. I may not have done that at all times either but hey as I said, we're all trying to work out what to do here.
 
wayToGo_ said:
I know you are looking at what European countries are doing comparatively to us but if look instead about what the most highly regarded countries at dealing with pandemics do (eg Singapore) then you'd probably appreciate how important tracing individual cases are in fighting a pandemic.

Although we acted later than we should have (I was highly critical of our government not very long ago) we now have some of the highest testing rates per capita in the world. For every positive case we have dozens of negative cases, so our public health officials have a much better handle of the landscape they are working in than the vast majority of other countries. I am sure you understand that running 3,000 tests and getting 600 positive results is vastly different to running 30,000 tests and getting 600 positive results. Looking back on my previous posts you can see I've been shouting for more testing to be done!

In a country with 25m people and a state with 2.6m some community transmission was inevitable. Personally I'm glad we are starting to identify it rather than just pretend (or naively hope) it didn't exist. That's why I said it is a good thing.
Click to expand...

Inveigh Slang said:
It's like talking to a brick wall. Don't waist your time
Click to expand...

This seems a perfectly reasonable response to a clear, concise argument.
 

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News Impact of COVID-19 on season 2020 and beyond

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