Is it on?

[ubiquitous226]

Remaining games:

Dogs away
Suns home
Sydney away
Tigers home
Hawks away (Tas)
Melbourne home
Eagles home
Essendon away
Geelong home
GWS away
Port home

Currently 7-1-4 = 30 points @ 121.4%
Currently at 2.5 Premiership points per game 7.5/12 wins

Last three years a side finishing top four has needed at least:
2023 - 2.782 Premiership points per game, 16/23 wins
2022 - 2.909 Premiership points per game, 16/22 wins
2021 - 2.72 Premiership points per game, 15/22 wins

Last three years a side finishing top six has needed at least:
2023 - 2.26 Premiership points per game, 13/23 wins
2022 - 2.72 Premiership points per game, 15/22 wins
2021 - 2.72 Premiership points per game, 15/22 wins

We need to win 7-8/11 for top four in my opinion. So which four/five games can we lose?

GWS, Hawks, Swans (+1/2 more and still make top four)?

I think ultimately not splitting the Carlton/Port games could hurt us.
I can't see it being any less than winning 8 more to make top 4, in which case Sydney, GWS and one of Hawks/Geelong/Port Adelaide would be the route on paper for me.

Getting a home final again would be a great result, and most importantly for me showing some of our best footy can match it in the back half of the season (like we did with Carlton/Port/Melbourne).

 

[poshman]

Forget the decade of dominance but as one of the youngest teams we are in with a shot of a top two finish... It is SO ON!

 

[MakeshiftMartyr]

Basically, if we make top 4 anything can happen.

Top 4 and it's on

 

[Wizard]

I don’t think they will…

Oh, but they will.
It’s an absolute prime opportunity for a loss that destroys the spirit of all of us in this forum.

 

[Lach72]

I’m not thinking past this week.

We have a very strong history of shitting the bed then rolling in it in these sort of games.

I’m not convinced we’re a good enough team yet

 

[sumavich]

Same

 

[james haish]

Forget a decade of dominance or venting, this is the purely pragmatic thread (Tell my wife I said, hello): With the way results have fallen this weekend the pathway to even top 2 is open. If we beat the Dogs it's time to purchase flights because there is a good chance it's on for real.

We're definitely in the frame. I'm cool with losing a game or two in the run home, and normally losing to Dogs at Docklands would not have me fretting, but I need confirmation of my suspicion that finally we have arrived. We need to beat the Dogs.

 

[james haish]

After round 12 in 2022 we were a game clear in 3rd spot with 9 wins, 3 losses and a percentage of 130% and we had beaten the two teams above us and the one immediately below us, including Geelong at HBMA and Melbourne at the G


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

Feel like our side is better now - less ragtag assembly of players. We had Lobb and Logue holding key positions. At least now our talls are structurally better.

 

[fnerd]

Yes…..

 

[s_wd6]

I’m not thinking past this week.

We have a very strong history of shitting the bed then rolling in it in these sort of games.

I’m not convinced we’re a good enough team yet

We're definitely a good enough team in terms of ability. It's just whether or not we're mentally there. Seems that as soon as expectation hits they shit the bed.

I really want to believe that this year is different but I'm very much on edge.

 

[Cobbler]

Weird season. There’s no team I fear, but I can also see us losing to basically anyone.

Huge window has opened. It’s time to smash through it. We announced ourselves with our comeback against the Pies and backed that up by dismantling Melbourne.

The next 2-3 weeks are monumental.

If we can beat Dogs and GC we’re playing finals. No questions. A cheeky top 4 is also there.

The Swans match will then really tell us are we actually good enough.

 

[FreoGirl]

We're definitely in the frame. I'm cool with losing a game or two in the run home, and normally losing to Dogs at Docklands would not have me fretting, but I need confirmation of my suspicion that finally we have arrived. We need to beat the Dogs.

yep, we were never going to go through undefeated

 

[88mph]

If we beat the Dogs, IT'S OFF

THE LID WILL BE OFF BABY!!

 

[pK75]

We’ll know in 3 more rounds. Win 2/3 and we’re finals bound, 3/3 and we’re in top 4 contention, then anything’s possible

 

[Madas]

Lose all 3 and

 

[dropbear101]

pffft, we may never lose again

 

[Kram]

Forget a decade of dominance or venting, this is the purely pragmatic thread (Tell my wife I said, hello): With the way results have fallen this weekend the pathway to even top 2 is open. If we beat the Dogs it's time to purchase flights because there is a good chance it's on for real.

No joke here I just had a dream that we won the PF by a point so better get on the blower and start organising.

 

[freo84]

 

[Wilksyy]

No its not. We lost to West Coast.

 

[freo84]

No its not. We lost to West Coast.

Sydney lost to Richmond.

Every team has weird losses.

 

[rubydoomsday]

big weekend coming. it starts to look pretty good if we beat Dogs and a few teams above us drop points.

 

[pK75]

big weekend coming. it starts to look pretty good if we beat Dogs and a few teams above us drop points.

Bombers and Cats both have the bye, so would jump up at least 2 spots if we win. Port has GWS so could be 3. Dees, Carlton and Suns also have the bye, though we can’t get ahead of the Blues, we can put distance on those below us.

 

[holybishop]

Two weeks ago you could book flights with Rex for under $800 return, refundable with an $88 fee. Just checked now and it's up to $858 or $918 depending on when you want to arrive in Melbourne.

If you're financially comfortable copping an $88 fee if we don't make it just get on it now. You won't see flight prices that cheap for the Grand Final weekend again.

 

[sansian]

All I can think of is the triangle

 

[FreoGirl]

All I can think of is the triangle

the Bermuda one?