Is Nick Daicos The Best First Year Player Of All Time?

[HairyO]

Interesting comparison, and it's close.

Do kick-ins after a behind count as a disposal? If so, how many did Daicos have, and do they pad his stats?

If you play on they do count. If you kick from inside the goal square they do not.

Its why so many stat padders do the kick ins and play on.

 

[Fadge]

I'm loving the attempts of posters trying to downplay Daicos' first season.

References to Rowell - so why was I in the vast minority when suggesting he should have been awarded the Rising Star in his first season?

References to GAJ - In Ablett Jr's first season he played 12 games, accumulated 100 disposals and kicked 10 goals as a forward pocket. Ablett didn't average more than 20 disposals a game until 2007, his 6th season in the system. But GAJ had 'explosiveness' that we haven't seen from Daicos? WTF?

Collingwood Best and Fairest result - 'he was 9th in the 4th placed team for average B&F votes per game'. He actually finished 6th in a very even vote count with 258 votes. Crisp won it with 291 votes. So the winner received 12.7% more votes than Nick in his first season. Compare that with Melbourne's Best and Fairest count, for example. Oliver won it with 608 votes, May was 3rd with 473 votes. Oliver received 26% more votes than May, in a team that finished lower than Collingwood.

Now, Daicos' season may or may not have been the best ever by a player in their first season as an 18/19 year old, but it is in the conversation. If it's nowhere near it, I'd expect the detractors to put forward much better arguments than they currently are.

 

[Fadge]

Look, I know your keen but I think you mean "in recent memory" not "of all time". In any case I present some of John Colemans first year stats. 12 goals in his first game, 100 goals for the year (next best 63), fourth in Brownlow medal, 6 goals in winning GF team.

I rate Coleman as the GOAT, but he was 20 years old when he debuted in 1949 so shouldn't be in this conversation when comparing with 18 year olds.

From Coleman's Wikipedia page - 'Essendon first invited Coleman to train at the club in 1946, but considered him too young to be able to play senior football' (Coleman was born in November 1928)

 

[loki04]

Late in his career maybe. But early in Ablett’s career before the shoulder injury he was a contested beast.

But I’ll give you the natural goal kicker part. I’m not knocking Daicos and maybe Dal Santo/Black are the wrong choices, I just don’t see the power in his game. Peak Ablett was like Dusty and Danger…so hard to tackle.

Ablett did it through leg and hip strength, and certainly wasn't doing it early on like he did when he was moved to the midfield. Which is when he went from inconsistent small fwd to gun of the comp mid.
Daicos just completed his first afl preseason and will only increase on his strength, power and build.

Dusty and Danger imo both more powerful big mids then Ablett was and did it differently too.
Danger is just an explosive beast, Martin strong through the core and used his stiff arm both legally and illegally (but got away with it 90% of the time).

 

[PieLebo87]

Interesting comparison, and it's close.

Do kick-ins after a behind count as a disposal? If so, how many did Daicos have, and do they pad his stats?

If he plays on, it does. He took 43 kick ins during the season, so don’t know how many he played on from. Averaged less than 2 kick ins a game.

He’d taken like 15 kick ins by round 17 too, so he only really started doing it often in the latter rounds.

 

[HeathySure]

If he plays on, it does. He took 43 kick ins during the season, so don’t know how many he played on from. Averaged less than 2 kick ins a game.

He’d taken like 15 kick ins by round 17 too, so he only really started doing it often in the latter rounds.

And the reason he did it was because he was very damaging. Coaches have certain players kicking in for a reason...

 

[PieLebo87]

And the reason he did it was because he was very damaging. Coaches have certain players kicking in for a reason...

Can clearly see with the numbers that he took on that responsibility a lot more later on in the season, which coincided with Collingwood’s more chaotic slingshot movement. Without looking at stats, Pies would’ve had to be the best side in the competition for scores from kick outs. Off the top of my head, we kicked plenty of goals from kick outs.

 

[HeathySure]

Can clearly see with the numbers that he took on that responsibility a lot more later on in the season, which coincided with Collingwood’s more chaotic slingshot movement. Without looking at stats, Pies would’ve had to be the best side in the competition for scores from kick outs. Off the top of my head, we kicked plenty of goals from kick outs.

i watched him closely. He was picking the best option almost every time and i reckon i could count on 1 hand the amount of times the ball came straight back. His decision making is elite, a quality not many players have.

 

[Goomba1973]

Before anyone mentions Michael Barlow who was 22 or 23 at the time, I'm talking about players drafted out of TAC or equivalent junior league.

Judd was incredibly good from the get go, more impactful, but wasn't putting up the numbers Daicos is. Selwood and Walsh were both great and played important roles but slightly behind.

Partly pains me putting this one up, but it's awesome watching Daicos dominate games of footy. Beautiful kicking skills, composed, accumulates but is one of the few high volume possession winners with hurt factor.

Massive ceiling.

Although it was defiantly a debut season for the ages and he will only get better .... Impact is everything. Judd never really had huge numbers in his career , however his impact was big and consistent from the get go.

 

[gouki88]

Although it was defiantly a debut season for the ages and he will only get better .... Impact is everything. Judd never really had huge numbers in his career , however his impact was big and consistent from the get go.

Judd was obviously a great debut year, but I feel like his 2nd season was where it really kicked off

 

[Fadge]

Judd was obviously a great debut year, but I feel like his 2nd season was where it really kicked off

Agree.

If talking about impact, Nick Daicos in his 2022 season debut had more impact than Judd had in his debut 2002 season.

Nick Daicos was best on ground in multiple close wins that enabled Collingwood to finish top 4, and received 11 Brownlow votes for his efforts.

Chris Judd averaged 15 possessions per game (acknowledging he was never a high possession getter), but played in a team that missed the finals and received 0 Brownlow votes. Whilst he did finished 3rd in his Club Best and Fairest, he polled 242 votes, 99 behind the winner Ben Cousins (or 40% votes fewer) - to my earlier point on Club Best and Fairest voting.

 

[Corn Cobbers]

Chris Judd averaged 15 possessions per game (acknowledging he was never a high possession getter), but played in a team that missed the finals and received 0 Brownlow votes. Whilst he did finished 3rd in his Club Best and Fairest, he polled 242 votes, 99 behind the winner Ben Cousins (or 40% votes fewer) - to my earlier point on Club Best and Fairest voting.

Not sure that's right, Eagles finished 8th in 2002 and I recall Judd getting two votes in his first game, which was against us the day B Holland kicked 8 goals

Judd's first year was pretty good, but not "Daicos standard" obviously

 

[Fadge]

Not sure that's right, Eagles finished 8th in 2002 and I recall Judd getting two votes in his first game, which was against us the day B Holland kicked 8 goals

Judd's first year was pretty good, but not "Daicos standard" obviously

Apologies - I saw West Coast with 10 wins and assumed they missed finals.

Cousins got the 1 vote that day. No votes for Judd in 2002.

 

[Corn Cobbers]

Apologies - I saw West Coast with 10 wins and assumed they missed finals.

Cousins got the 1 vote that day. No votes for Judd in 2002.

He had a blinder that day

Judd at the Eagles was some of the best footy ever played

Wasn't as good at Carlton but still managed another Brownlow

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I'm loving the attempts of posters trying to downplay Daicos' first season.

References to Rowell - so why was I in the vast minority when suggesting he should have been awarded the Rising Star in his first season?

References to GAJ - In Ablett Jr's first season he played 12 games, accumulated 100 disposals and kicked 10 goals as a forward pocket. Ablett didn't average more than 20 disposals a game until 2007, his 6th season in the system. But GAJ had 'explosiveness' that we haven't seen from Daicos? WTF?

Collingwood Best and Fairest result - 'he was 9th in the 4th placed team for average B&F votes per game'. He actually finished 6th in a very even vote count with 258 votes. Crisp won it with 291 votes. So the winner received 12.7% more votes than Nick in his first season. Compare that with Melbourne's Best and Fairest count, for example. Oliver won it with 608 votes, May was 3rd with 473 votes. Oliver received 26% more votes than May, in a team that finished lower then Collingwood.

Now, Daicos' season may or may not have been the best ever by a player in their first season as an 18/19 year old, but it is in the conversation. If it's nowhere near it, I'd expect the detractors to put forward much better arguments than they currently are.

Very odd point about the B & F. I mentioned Nick Daicos finished 9th for average votes per game at best. But also in my post I pointed to the bunched field. Your claim he finished 6th is wrong. He finished 7th for total votes.

2022 E.W. Copeland Trophy​

1. Jack Crisp - 291 votes
2. Scott Pendlebury - 276

3. Darcy Moore - 269
4. Jeremy Howe - 266
5. Steele Sidebottom- - 265

6. Patrick Lipinski - 259
7. Nick Daicos - 258
=8. Josh Daicos - 249
=8. Brayden Maynard - 249
10. Jordan De Goey - 231

Maynard and DeGoey finished below Nick Daicos for total votes but above him for votes per game given Daicos played 25 games, Maynard 23 games and DeGoey 19 games. Those are facts. As I pointed out we cannot tell from the information I could find if any of Grundy, Adams, or Elliott also polled more votes per game than Nick Daicos, potentially pushing Daicos lower on that score. So based on average votes per game it is an undisputable fact the Collingwood coaches rated nick Daicos no better than 9th best Collingwood player in season 2022. I accept it was an even field and he wasn’t too far from the winner, but that doesn’t make it untrue or in any way deceptive to point out 8 other Collingwood players at least polled more votes per game than Nick Daicos.

I am not trying to downplay Nick Daicos’s excellent first season by introducing these facts. I am finding the facts first and reaching conclusions second, in order that the conclusions are more reliable. Do you suggest a different order of business?

I rate Coleman as the GOAT, but he was 20 years old when he debuted in 1949 so shouldn't be in this conversation when comparing with 18 year olds.

From Coleman's Wikipedia page - 'Essendon first invited Coleman to train at the club in 1946, but considered him too young to be able to play senior football' (Coleman was born in November 1928)

This is also wrong. Nick Daicos was over 19 years 3 months of age when season 2022 started, likely the oldest of his draft class, having been born 3 days after the cut off for the 2020 draft.

Coleman was 20 years and 4 months of age when he debuted, about one year older than Daicos, not 2 years as your post infers.

Royce Hart was around 1 month younger than Daicos when he debuted in 1967. What we know of his debut season is he averaged just over 13 disposals per game, roughly 3 goals 3 behinds per game, was selected for Victoria(at least the equivalent of being selected in the AA squad these days,) and he kicked 7 goals playing against WA. He played CHF in the finals and was best afield with 6.2 from 12 disposals in the second semi-final v Carlton, and scored 3.2 from 19 disposals in the GF v Geelong. He was then selected to play for Australia v Ireland. This is clearly on another level to Daicos’s excellent season, and Hart was about a month younger than Daicos when he debuted.

So there is no chance at all Daicos is the best first year player of all time from players his own age or younger on debut. If you wanted to go by age….Tim Watson, remarkably in his 4th season in 1980 as an 18/19 yo, polled 17 Brownlow votes, equal 5th and 6 votes below the winner, Kelvin Templeton. Watson averaged over 24 disposals and a fraction under 2 goals per game in that 1980 season. He was younger in that season than Daicos was in 2022.

So as I posted and you laughed at, Daicos’s first season was excellent and I think he is rightly universally admired for it, but it is clearly none of the following: a historical level debut season, debut season for a 19yo, or 19yo and below season. None of this is to downplay Daicos, just to show where he actually sits.

Best debut season: Coleman 1949 is probably this, but was a year older than Daicos.

Best debut season 19 or younger: Hart 1967 was probably this from what we know, there are possibly others.

Best season for a player 18 or below at season start: I have Tim Watson leading this at this point.

If he plays on, it does. He took 43 kick ins during the season, so don’t know how many he played on from. Averaged less than 2 kick ins a game.

He’d taken like 15 kick ins by round 17 too, so he only really started doing it often in the latter rounds.

This is also a little wrong for what it is worth. You can see on he link below Nick Daicos took 53 kick ins during the 2022 season from his 25 matches. Over 2 per game. Daicos without his kick ins average just under 23.6 disposals per game, extremely high for a debut season but not remarkable for an AFL player.

Kick-In Breakdown - DFS Australia

ADE BRL CAR COL ESS FRE GCS GEE GWS HAW MEL NTH PTA RIC STK SYD WBD WCE 2021 2022 2023 2024 AFL Kick In data is available from the 2021 season onwards. PO% refers to the percentage of time each player plays on from the square when kicking in. Each round is denoted as… Read More »Kick-In Breakdown

dfsaustralia.com

 

[Fadge]

Very odd point about the B & F. I mentioned Nick Daicos finished 9th for average votes per game at best. But also in my post I pointed to the bunched field. Your claim he finished 6th is wrong. He finished 7th for total votes.

2022 E.W. Copeland Trophy​

1. Jack Crisp - 291 votes
2. Scott Pendlebury - 276

3. Darcy Moore - 269
4. Jeremy Howe - 266
5. Steele Sidebottom- - 265

6. Patrick Lipinski - 259
7. Nick Daicos - 258
=8. Josh Daicos - 249
=8. Brayden Maynard - 249
10. Jordan De Goey - 231

Maynard and DeGoey finished below Nick Daicos for total votes but above him for votes per game given Daicos played 25 games, Maynard 23 games and DeGoey 19 games. Those are facts. As I pointed out we cannot tell from the information I could find if any of Grundy, Adams, or Elliott also polled more votes per game than Nick Daicos, potentially pushing Daicos lower on that score. So based on average votes per game it is an undisputable fact the Collingwood coaches rated nick Daicos no better than 9th best Collingwood player in season 2022. I accept it was an even field and he wasn’t too far from the winner, but that doesn’t make it untrue or in any way deceptive to point out 8 other Collingwood players at least polled more votes per game than Nick Daicos.

I am not trying to downplay Nick Daicos’s excellent first season by introducing these facts. I am finding the facts first and reaching conclusions second, in order that the conclusions are more reliable. Do you suggest a different order of business?

Apologies - I referred to the graphic on the Collingwood website, they had stuffed it up. So yes, N. Daicos 7th, but still 12% of votes short of the winner. It doesn't change my point of contention.

Is 7th for total votes, 12% of votes from the winner, better than 7th in a Best and Fairest field like Melbourne, where Oliver polled 52% more votes than Bailey Fritsch, who finished 7th in the Melbourne best and fairest count?

Your comment about the field being 'fairly bunched' was barely a footnote, and it was clear you were being deceptive with your comments. I can guarantee that if the statistics worked in your favour (i.e. if the field wasn't bunched), you would have made more of a point as to how far off the winners he was in terms of actual votes.

This is also wrong. Nick Daicos was over 19 years 3 months of age when season 2022 started, likely the oldest of his draft class, having been born 3 days after the cut off for the 2020 draft.

Coleman was 20 years and 4 months of age when he debuted, about one year older than Daicos, not 2 years as your post infers.

Royce Hart was around 1 month younger than Daicos when he debuted in 1967. What we know of his debut season is he averaged just over 13 disposals per game, roughly 3 goals 3 behinds per game, was selected for Victoria(at least the equivalent of being selected in the AA squad these days,) and he kicked 7 goals playing against WA. He played CHF in the finals and was best afield with 6.2 from 12 disposals in the second semi-final v Carlton, and scored 3.2 from 19 disposals in the GF v Geelong. He was then selected to play for Australia v Ireland. This is clearly on another level to Daicos’s excellent season, and Hart was about a month younger than Daicos when he debuted.

So there is no chance at all Daicos is the best first year player of all time from players his own age or younger on debut. If you wanted to go by age….Tim Watson, remarkably in his 4th season in 1980 as an 18/19 yo, polled 17 Brownlow votes, equal 5th and 6 votes below the winner, Kelvin Templeton. Watson averaged over 24 disposals and a fraction under 2 goals per game in that 1980 season. He was younger in that season than Daicos was in 2022.

So as I posted and you laughed at, Daicos’s first season was excellent and I think he is rightly universally admired for it, but it is clearly none of the following: a historical level debut season, debut season for a 19yo, or 19yo and below season. None of this is to downplay Daicos, just to show where he actually sits.

Best debut season: Coleman 1949 is probably this, but was a year older than Daicos.

Best debut season 19 or younger: Hart 1967 was probably this from what we know, there are possibly others.

Best season for a player 18 or below at season start: I have Tim Watson leading this at this point.

There are many players who are 19 years old on debut as a result of the current draft process, so comparing players in their first year immediately after they are eligible to be drafted is as fair as it gets.

I guess we can go to the next level and identify December born kids (for example), and compare their second years with January born kids' first years, but then we have to consider physical maturity, etc. I don't have the data to make those comparisons, so I'm just comparing apples with apples.

You've given an example of a player who debuted in a lesser competition 55 years ago as someone whose debut season was better than that of Nick Daicos. I agree, Hart's 1967 appears to have been better based on the statistics available.

But I am struggling to find a player in recent times who has had a better first year after their earliest possible draft age than that produced by Nick Daicos in 2022, given the current drafting rules and professionalism of the competition.

Do you have anyone else in mind, ideally more recent than 55 years ago when the league was an amateur state league?

 

[Honeyboy Wilson]

Apologies - I referred to the graphic on the Collingwood website, they had stuffed it up. So yes, N. Daicos 7th, but still 12% of votes short of the winner. It doesn't change my point of contention.

Is 7th for total votes, 12% of votes from the winner, better than 7th in a Best and Fairest field like Melbourne, where Oliver polled 52% more votes than Bailey Fritsch, who finished 7th in the Melbourne best and fairest count?

Your comment about the field being 'fairly bunched' was barely a footnote, and it was clear you were being deceptive with your comments. I can guarantee that if the statistics worked in your favour (i.e. if the field wasn't bunched), you would have made more of a point as to how far off the winners he was in terms of actual votes.


There are many players who are 19 years old on debut as a result of the current draft process, so comparing players in their first year immediately after they are eligible to be drafted is as fair as it gets.

I guess we can go to the next level and identify December born kids (for example), and compare their second years with January born kids' first years, but then we have to consider physical maturity, etc. I don't have the data to make those comparisons, so I'm just comparing apples with apples.

You've given an example of a player who debuted in a lesser competition 55 years ago as someone whose debut season was better than that of Nick Daicos. I agree, Hart's 1967 appears to have been better based on the statistics available.

But I am struggling to find a player in recent times who has had a better first year after their earliest possible draft age than that produced by Nick Daicos in 2022, given the current drafting rules and professionalism of the competition.

Do you have anyone else in mind, ideally more recent than 55 years ago when the league was an amateur state league?

Toby Greene averaged over 27 touches a game, over 3 tackles a game, almost 5 clearances a game in a much more difficult position and finished runner up in his team's best and fairest in his first year. All these results are better than Nick Daicos and at the very least a solid argument can be made that he had a better first year.

 

[PieLebo87]

This is also a little wrong for what it is worth. You can see on he link below Nick Daicos took 53 kick ins during the 2022 season from his 25 matches. Over 2 per game. Daicos without his kick ins average just under 23.6 disposals per game, extremely high for a debut season but not remarkable for an AFL player.

Kick-In Breakdown - DFS Australia

ADE BRL CAR COL ESS FRE GCS GEE GWS HAW MEL NTH PTA RIC STK SYD WBD WCE 2021 2022 2023 2024 AFL Kick In data is available from the 2021 season onwards. PO% refers to the percentage of time each player plays on from the square when kicking in. Each round is denoted as… Read More »Kick-In Breakdown

dfsaustralia.com

Mine was accurate for the H&A season. Your total must include the 3 finals games.

In saying that, do we ever take away kick ins from other players stats? Not sure why we’re doing it for Daicos. Taking a kick in, and playing on is a part of the game. If it wasn’t meant to be a stat, it wouldn’t be classified as a disposal.

People can call it cheap if they like though, it’s still part of his possession tally.

 

[nineteen eighty]

Without getting into the whole debate on whether he's had the best debut season ever...

No argument from anyone I would have thought that he's had a fantastic season for a 1st year a r player. I don't think that anyone could also put up an argument that he will be anything but one of the best going around as he develops further.

What is amazing for mine is that he's already playing at this level after a couple of Covid development challenges years. He simply has not had the opportunity to develop as other first year players have (recent'ish history).

Shame he's at the Pies as he will be a magnificent player for many years.

 

[Fadge]

Toby Greene averaged over 27 touches a game, over 3 tackles a game, almost 5 clearances a game in a much more difficult position and finished runner up in his team's best and fairest in his first year. All these results are better than Nick Daicos and at the very least a solid argument can be made that he had a better first year.

Runner-up in his team's best and fairest, a team that won two games. How many votes did he finish behind Ward? (I can't find the votes).

Four Brownlow Votes.

He played on-ball, right? Not a lot of competition for spots in a team that won two games with 80% first year players in it's first year in the competition.

It's tough to be dominant in a poor team, I get it. Definitely in the conversation, but by no means clearly better than that of Daicos.

 

[Les Grossman playaaaa]

Kids a superstar, no doubt about that. He's loving his football and it shows in the way he plays.

Definitely one of the best first seasons I've seen from a debutant, and full credit to Collingwood for the way they protected him and introduced him into the game. Seen too many kids get hammered early and have their careers screwed.

Hope he continues on this trajectory because he's a pleasure to watch.

 

[Honeyboy Wilson]

Runner-up in his team's best and fairest, a team that won two games. How many votes did he finish behind Ward? (I can't find the votes).

Four Brownlow Votes.

He played on-ball, right? Not a lot of competition for spots in a team that won two games with 80% first year players in it's first year in the competition.

It's tough to be dominant in a poor team, I get it. Definitely in the conversation, but by no means clearly better than that of Daicos.

A team that won two games and got absolutely belted off the park in most of the losses and you're bringing up Brownlow votes?

GWS best Brownlow vote getter was Giles with 7, followed by Ward with 5 and Greene with 4. From 2 wins. Daicos got 11 votes from 16 wins.

Only reason he didn't absolutely stomp in the Rising Star was because he was suspended during the season so was ineligible. Averaged 11 contested possessions to 6 by Daicos... Had to win his own ball with very little support because as you've mentioned most players were first year players.

I think it's subjective as to who you think had a better year, but Greene's first year was every bit as good as Daicos and I give him the nod for having to do it in a tougher position and in rougher circumstances.

So therefore there's no way you can clearly say Daicos is the best first year player ever.

 

[Breretonisahood]

No doubt Daicos had one of the best 1st yr seasons I can recall. But pointless trying to rank him with others over the years. A couple of others I recall well were Keith Greig in 1971 and Paul van der Haar in 1977. Greig played for the Big V after 9 games and then won B2B Brownlows in his 3rd and 4th years. Vander was a sensation in 77 and starred in the famous 78 match against Hawthorn when he and Knights put on an incredible 1 v 1 marking display. There are plenty of others mentioned elsewhere but Daicos has certainly struck me as having an incredibly well developed game sense for a kid his age. A bit like Tim Watson when he first started at 15 or 16.

 

[PieLebo87]

A team that won two games and got absolutely belted off the park in most of the losses and you're bringing up Brownlow votes?

GWS best Brownlow vote getter was Giles with 7, followed by Ward with 5 and Greene with 4. From 2 wins. Daicos got 11 votes from 16 wins.

Only reason he didn't absolutely stomp in the Rising Star was because he was suspended during the season so was ineligible. Averaged 11 contested possessions to 6 by Daicos... Had to win his own ball with very little support because as you've mentioned most players were first year players.

I think it's subjective as to who you think had a better year, but Greene's first year was every bit as good as Daicos and I give him the nod for having to do it in a tougher position and in rougher circumstances.

So therefore there's no way you can clearly say Daicos is the best first year player ever.

Didn’t realise Greene had this good of a first season. Similar to Buckley in his first season in that he played in an interstate side that got belted quite abit and it got less limelight.

The fact we sit here and talk about Walsh, Daicos and Judd instead of Greene, Palmer and Buckley as well goes to show there’s still that VIC bias in the media.

 

[Fadge]

So therefore there's no way you can clearly say Daicos is the best first year player ever.

I for one have never said Daicos' year was the best ever by a first year player.

I'm looking for nominations as to who has clearly outperformed him. So far we have to go back to Royce Hart in 1967 for a player with a season that was clearly better.

11 contested possession to Greene v. 6 from Daicos. Wouldn't that be due to the (very) different roles they were playing?