Draft Watcher Knightmare 2020 Draft Almanac

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Hi knightmare we're do you see Fraser Rosman going 2rd or 3rd and your opinion on his talent and upside.
 
Knightmare said:
Reef is an Essendon supporter, so no doubt that would get him excited on an individual level.

From a Pies perspective, I just look at any trade up, unless it's all the way up to Gold Coast's pick 5 as a losing trade.

If it's picks 14+16, I don't look at pick 8 as being worth all that much more. As per my earlier post on the topic, I'd be looking to trade down and add future assets, rather than trading away say the Pies 2021 1st round pick, which may on its own be worth more than I'd say even pick 6 this year, with my assumption being that Collingwood fall just outside the top 8 side in 2021. Or otherwise there is just holding the current picks, matching, and taking someone else with the other.

There are a lot of different ways they can choose to play it. Moving up though I'd categorise as the worse option.
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That's interesting.

I would assume that any players within northern academies would 'support' the clubs that they are training at and are developing them.
They would know a lot of the players etc..

Seems kind of odd that he would support one club, whilst he is supposedly training / being developed by another.
 
Mt Isa Mustang said:
That's interesting.

I would assume that any players within northern academies would 'support' the clubs that they are training at and are developing them.
They would know a lot of the players etc..

Seems kind of odd that he would support one club, whilst he is supposedly training / being developed by another.
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I'd say he was supporting Essendon before he was involved with the academy. The colours you wore at four years old stick hard.
 

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Knightmare said:
Reef is an Essendon supporter, so no doubt that would get him excited on an individual level.

From a Pies perspective, I just look at any trade up, unless it's all the way up to Gold Coast's pick 5 as a losing trade.

If it's picks 14+16, I don't look at pick 8 as being worth all that much more. As per my earlier post on the topic, I'd be looking to trade down and add future assets, rather than trading away say the Pies 2021 1st round pick, which may on its own be worth more than I'd say even pick 6 this year, with my assumption being that Collingwood fall just outside the top 8 side in 2021. Or otherwise there is just holding the current picks, matching, and taking someone else with the other.

There are a lot of different ways they can choose to play it. Moving up though I'd categorise as the worse option.
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Fully agree Nightmare. I would rather trade the 16 and first rounder with a couple of later future picks to adelaide and melbourne to try to pick up 18,19 and 22,23. I think from 10-30 is an even bunch so we could do really well with this plan. cook, baldwin, callow, carroll, powell etc plus reef. great value to be had
 
Mt Isa Mustang said:
Knightmare you've shown some interest in GC academy small forwards over the years.

Ace - Paul Oea Hewago - now officially on our list after being promoted from International scholarship?

I liked his pace and balance from NEAFL and u18 champs games I've seen.

Who do you think is more likely to make it as an AFL contributor. Ace, Josh Gore or Max Pescud?
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I've enjoyed watching those Gold Coast Academy guys because there is a lot of talent among those guys. They're all worth rookie spots or in the case of Pescud a senior list spot. So Pescud is my pick.

Gore I liked last year as a forward and felt was very draftable. He's a threat i50 and I feel like Gold Coast probably should have taken him. Pescud this year is a talent and I like him also, and again a threat i50 though with more tricks and athleticism. I picked Pescud in the bigfooty phantom draft for a reason and have him well inside my top-40 talents this year. Ace I'm also a fan of. Liked his pressure and tackling last year. He brings that energy to a front half and has scope to develop also.
 
db26 said:
Hi knightmare we're do you see Fraser Rosman going 2rd or 3rd and your opinion on his talent and upside.
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Rosman has a chance to feature in the second or third round. He's a late second round onwards pick.

He's someone you pick on upside. He has a long way to develop, having struggled to get his hands on it in 2019, but what makes him intriguing is his endurance and speed. Can he be good enough as a key forward? I haven't seen enough evidence to suggest he develops into a good enough forward. On a wing? That's the more intriguing vision. He's not someone I would personally pick, but with the speed/endurance combination, if he learns how to accumulate and win enough of the ball, which he's not nearly at the present time, that's when he could become a possible AFL footballer.

Mt Isa Mustang said:
That's interesting.

I would assume that any players within northern academies would 'support' the clubs that they are training at and are developing them.
They would know a lot of the players etc..

Seems kind of odd that he would support one club, whilst he is supposedly training / being developed by another.
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If you're from Melbourne, you'll normally have your own team you'll support before joining the academy systems.

If from Brisbane/Sydney or wherever and you don't grow up supporting a particular team, and with less teams in QLD/NSW than in Vic, it's more probable they'll support that team.

piemad1 said:
Fully agree Nightmare. I would rather trade the 16 and first rounder with a couple of later future picks to adelaide and melbourne to try to pick up 18,19 and 22,23. I think from 10-30 is an even bunch so we could do really well with this plan. cook, baldwin, callow, carroll, powell etc plus reef. great value to be had
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I see value also. Where Collingwood are there is value to be had, whether a bid on Reef comes before that pick or not. So a move isn't necessary. Moving down though to increase the 2021 draft hand though is that other option I'd consider. Just means flexible assets.

Wherever Collingwood are picking, I'd have Macrae, Carroll and Cook as those I'd hope come though, or if they're gone, a Sam Berry or Tom Powell would be strong gets in their own right.
 
Knightmare said:
Of interest, what would your opinion of Doedee's value in your mind as a Crows fan be as a pick? Worth a top-10 pick? First round pick? Second round pick? Top-5?

I find myself looking at him as follows. Drafted 2015. Been on list for the 2016-2020 seasons. For an average of 6 games per season. Of if you just want to count the last three seasons, as he debuted in 2018, 10 games per season. Having done an ACL, hamstring this year. Having that injury history. Had a club offered me a first round pick in this year's draft, or equivalent value in terms of players, I would have jumped at it.
It's the same as the Joe Daniher theory, if Brisbane are going to pay enough for him where Essendon can get a return of pick 7, for a guy who played 15 games in three years, you take that and run.
I do though place, particularly with quality players as Doedee is when he plays, a very high weighting on durability.
Just as I haven't expressed all that much excitement for St Kilda about the Brad Crouch addition. 95 career games and he's 27 in January? And he was ready-to-go the moment he entered the AFL. You've got guys the same age who have passed the 150 game mark already.
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Doedee should have played more earlier in his career. but was held back in the SANFL like Fog and ROB. But yes his ACL last year, and hamstring issues (due to his hamstring graph) this year are concerning and would hurt his value. Its just the ACL thats caused issues, its not like recurring issues all over like a Beams or Rockliff.

This being said, the Crows shouldn't trade him him because he's not just a leader but the next captain. The value he brings in being a model citizen, work ethic, relationships and control down back (it will be Doedee after Talia), is too important in this rebuild phase. Theres a right price for everything, but its very hard to let go of Doedee because of how important he is to us. I can't put a draft pick number on it, if someone offered pick 10 I'd be hesitant. His ceiling is better than that but again factoring in durability I can see the temptation to trade, but I wouldnt.

Daniher has questions over his off field commitment which in combination with 3 years of injury is enough and not wanting to be there is enough to offload. Not to mention how uncompetitive he was in his final few games for Essendon.
 
The German Hunter said:
So why is it upsetting you guys so much if it’s not his forte.
He is giving his POV from the outside.
I believe Knightmare has the right to go into any discussion he chooses too on his own forum page.
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He gets called out for his bullshit every year, why should this year be any different.
 
Jcpdragonx said:
Doedee should have played more earlier in his career. but was held back in the SANFL like Fog and ROB. But yes his ACL last year, and hamstring issues (due to his hamstring graph) this year are concerning and would hurt his value. Its just the ACL thats caused issues, its not like recurring issues all over like a Beams or Rockliff.

This being said, the Crows shouldn't trade him him because he's not just a leader but the next captain. The value he brings in being a model citizen, work ethic, relationships and control down back (it will be Doedee after Talia), is too important in this rebuild phase. Theres a right price for everything, but its very hard to let go of Doedee because of how important he is to us. I can't put a draft pick number on it, if someone offered pick 10 I'd be hesitant. His ceiling is better than that but again factoring in durability I can see the temptation to trade, but I wouldnt.

Daniher has questions over his off field commitment which in combination with 3 years of injury is enough and not wanting to be there is enough to offload. Not to mention how uncompetitive he was in his final few games for Essendon.
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There have been a lot of future captains. The youngest ever in Jack Trengove fizzled out prematurely and he's not on his own. Jack Grimes was co-captain and also despite starting his career reasonably also didn't last. Both have had their injuries and had their careers ruined by injury frankly.

You can be a leader, and it's great having leaders, particularly for youth development. I can't speak highly enough for the value of good leadership and multiple good leaders within a playing group. That's a key ingredient to building great teams. I'm so strongly of this view that after Melbourne cut Grimes and Port Adelaide cut Trengove respectively, I was of the view either would be good gets for young, developing lists, for their value to help with youth development and help with building that core of leaders. It's so hard to measure the value of those types. I was of the same view with Alex Johnson after Sydney delisted him. He's another where he's always getting hurt, but just that leadership value, you can't measure the benefits of that.

The question though with Doedee is, what if he ongoing has injury issues? While it's one thing to get a Trengove/Grimes/Johnson - which no one did, and understandably. Will Doedee follow a similar trajectory? It's going to be interesting, but I'm concerned until he regularly starts producing 20+ game seasons. And it's not about doing it once, but you want that more years than not.
 
Knightmare said:
There have been a lot of future captains. The youngest ever in Jack Trengove fizzled out prematurely and he's not on his own. Jack Grimes was co-captain and also despite starting his career reasonably also didn't last. Both have had their injuries and had their careers ruined by injury frankly.

You can be a leader, and it's great having leaders, particularly for youth development. I can't speak highly enough for the value of good leadership and multiple good leaders within a playing group. That's a key ingredient to building great teams. I'm so strongly of this view that after Melbourne cut Grimes and Port Adelaide cut Trengove respectively, I was of the view either would be good gets for young, developing lists, for their value to help with youth development and help with building that core of leaders. It's so hard to measure the value of those types. I was of the same view with Alex Johnson after Sydney delisted him. He's another where he's always getting hurt, but just that leadership value, you can't measure the benefits of that.

The question though with Doedee is, what if he ongoing has injury issues? While it's one thing to get a Trengove/Grimes/Johnson - which no one did, and understandably. Will Doedee follow a similar trajectory? It's going to be interesting, but I'm concerned until he regularly starts producing 20+ game seasons. And it's not about doing it once, but you want that more years than not.
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I believe the value Doedee brings to the crows outweighs the injury risk. It's difficult to place a value on someone when its not just X is worth about this much. He's worth more to us because we have pathetic culture and lack leadership unlike many other clubs.

As long as the skin graph related hamstring issue isnt chronic (in theory this should be unlikely) then something else would have to pop up for him to have ongoing injuries. With ACLs there is always going to be a what if. I'll be concerned if his hamstring issue continue into next year, because right now it would just be more of a punt to trade him assuming he'll keep getting injured when everything has just stemmed from the ACL surgery.

The Melbourne example if anything highlights the importance of good leaders at the club, they were a complete rabble in the late 2000s and early 2010s, and these promising talents were something to help steer the club in another direction. Trengove was about the only thing they had going for them when he became captain. Adelaide are desperate for leadership, just as Melbourne were, hence why I go on about how important captaincy is to certain clubs.

The flow on effects are important to build off of, where leaders get involved in building a culture to make the club a more attractive proposition. Melbourne needed more than Trengove to attract players but its a starting point. If Essendon (a pathetic club like Adelaide) were to bring in Dunkley the chances of Merrett staying would certainly increase a fair bit, but instead they saw more value in hold two top 10 picks, or they didnt even think about this.
 
Jcpdragonx said:
The flow on effects are important to build off of, where leaders get involved in building a culture to make the club a more attractive proposition. Melbourne needed more than Trengove to attract players but its a starting point. If Essendon (a pathetic club like Adelaide) were to bring in Dunkley the chances of Merrett staying would certainly increase a fair bit, but instead they saw more value in hold two top 10 picks, or they didnt even think about this.
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It would be a disaster for us to trade out of next year's super draft like Bulldogs wanted. We actually did the right thing by going to the draft.
We can always go for him again next year when we definitely know what our draft hand will be. We can't make list decisions based on keeping one player.
 
Hi Knightmare, how is Rowan Marshall as a player comparison as Riley Thilthorpe?

From what I've seen Thilthorpe moves well for a ruckman, but I do think he lacks the necessary tools to become an A grade full-time KPF, which is essentially what you'd expect as a potential #1 pick.

Very unproven goal scoring wise in under 18 level, and honestly just doesn't excite me as a #1 pick. If anything, someone like Nik Cox appears to be more of a natural forward instead.
 

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Hey KM you have probably already posted this before but can't find it in any recent posts, when is your Phantom Draft dropping? I see that Cal Twomey's is dropping Mon arvo on AFL.COM.

Sent from my SM-G977B using Tapatalk
 
What you've all been waiting for. My final for the year.

My December AFL Draft Power Rankings:
www.espn.com.au

AFL Draft Power Rankings: McDonald firming as Crows' first pick

With just more than a week until the 2020 AFL Draft, ESPN.com.au expert Chris Doerre has revealed his latest Power Rankings ahead of the big night, with some players making a late run up the board...
www.espn.com.au www.espn.com.au
 
Prochard123 said:
Hi Knightmare, how is Rowan Marshall as a player comparison as Riley Thilthorpe?

From what I've seen Thilthorpe moves well for a ruckman, but I do think he lacks the necessary tools to become an A grade full-time KPF, which is essentially what you'd expect as a potential #1 pick.

Very unproven goal scoring wise in under 18 level, and honestly just doesn't excite me as a #1 pick. If anything, someone like Nik Cox appears to be more of a natural forward instead.
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Thilthorpe can hit the scoreboard and did more in 2019 kicking more goals than he did this season at 1.3 per game. Again, still SANFL League competition. This year he only kicked the 5 goals from his 9 games because he was asked to play so much through the ruck. So he looks like he'll become a much better key forward than Marshall.

How does Thilthorpe look as a ruckman? He could develop into a good ruckman. Good athlete, can follow up, able tap ruckman, can cover the ground and get forward and take a grab. It would be some years away, but it's a position he can definitely play, and play well. With Marshall, and only in 2019 did he play purely as a ruckman, but I'd be more than excited if Thilthorpe was playing that standard of football through the ruck once fully developed rather than expecting it, that would be a great outcome obviously if that's where he focused on developing.

My view with Thilthorpe is he's best used as a key forward who can play those relieving minutes through the ruck, providing value in both positions, but when you've got someone who can be a really good forward, generally clubs will lean that way, and I can't blame them.

troyjones2525 said:
Hey KM you have probably already posted this before but can't find it in any recent posts, when is your Phantom Draft dropping? I see that Cal Twomey's is dropping Mon arvo on AFL.COM.

Sent from my SM-G977B using Tapatalk
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Final phantom draft will be on ESPN the Wednesday morning of the draft so as to maximise traffic.

Monday arvo I'll be completing a podcast with ESPN and can provide a quick spoiler for how I'm seeing things there and then if there is the interest, though between then and my final phantom which I'd send through Tuesday I'm sure I will make changes.

blueiris said:
Cal Twomey believes Collingwood are massively into Coleman and expects a bid with one of Collingwood’s top 20 picks thoughts is the bid too high notice you don’t have him you’re top 20 rankings
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I'm a Coleman fan. I've made the comment during the year, but I feel like he's more advanced than his brother at the same age, and Keidan can play a role. He's just not in my top-20. Maybe I could make a case contending for 19+20 on my board, as that's when for me the draft starts to open up to that next talent tier down if I really needed that pressure forward, and he's a list fit for Collingwood as a club badly lacking a crumbing/pressure forward with Collingwood's forward pressure abysmal this year, but there would still at Collingwood's selections at least on my board still be stronger choices. I have my extended power rankings ready to go and will make a video around that over the coming days when I get some time. For mine, I see him as worth a pick/bid in the mid 20s.
 
THE_GUN said:
Reef McInnes has shot up would that be based on the combine results or another reason ?

would you be thinking he gets a bid in the top 15 picks KM
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A couple of clubs are considering Reef before the Pies. Whether either are committed to making that bid I don't have the answer.

The combination will have helped with his 20m sprint time, along with seeing he has grown to 193cm. It's an appealing combination.
 
Hi KM,

On your power ranking you have McInnes at 8th. I recall you mentioning that if Essendon bids at 6-8 we shouldn't match. My question is if that turned out to be the case, who on your power ranking list can we realistically get at 14/16 that's better than McInnes?

I still don't think Essendon genuinely rates McInnes. Instead, Dodoro is only claiming this to subtract more value from us via our 2021 1st. It's quite obvious that we shouldn't sell off a potential top 5/8 pick in a super draft for such little value, but then again Ned Guy has gone far lower the little expectation I had for him.
 
Prochard123 said:
Hi KM,

On your power ranking you have McInnes at 8th. I recall you mentioning that if Essendon bids at 6-8 we shouldn't match. My question is if that turned out to be the case, who on your power ranking list can we realistically get at 14/16 that's better than McInnes?
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I was considering for a while there revising McInnes down my power rankings, and even placing the likes of Carroll and Cook ahead of him, that's how far back I pondered placing him for a time there. The talent bracket which I'll go through in my next YouTube video will show Reef is amongst a large group, and I do rate that group pretty evenly, but ultimately I've settled on matching bids on Reef is the way to go. Seeing his height at 193, and having that late year birthday. Does he get to 194cm? 195cm? 196cm? If he can play midfield at that height, and he's a serious athlete and comfortable at ground level. A threat when he pushes forward and can take a mark. I'm comfortable with my final position for him on my draft board. I would match bids on Reef if indeed that pick comes before Collingwood's pick.
 
Knightmare said:
I was considering for a while there revising McInnes down my power rankings, and even placing the likes of Carroll and Cook ahead of him, that's how far back I pondered placing him for a time there. The talent bracket which I'll go through in my next YouTube video will show Reef is amongst a large group, and I do rate that group pretty evenly, but ultimately I've settled on matching bids on Reef is the way to go. Seeing his height at 193, and having that late year birthday. Does he get to 194cm? 195cm? 196cm? If he can play midfield at that height, and he's a serious athlete and comfortable at ground level. A threat when he pushes forward and can take a mark. I'm comfortable with my final position for him on my draft board. I would match bids on Reef if indeed that pick comes before Collingwood's pick.
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So pretty much at this stage, he is all potential & no output.

But if he does develop nicely, he has one of the largest upsides in this draft rivalling even the big 5? (I'm hoping this is the case)

Because if his potential is inbetween the big 5 and the next group - so around 6, then considering the low probability of all of the events you mentioned occuring, surely we gotta push him much further down the list right? Since power ranking should consider both upside, and the probability of achieving that potential.
 
Knightmare said:
I was considering for a while there revising McInnes down my power rankings, and even placing the likes of Carroll and Cook ahead of him, that's how far back I pondered placing him for a time there. The talent bracket which I'll go through in my next YouTube video will show Reef is amongst a large group, and I do rate that group pretty evenly, but ultimately I've settled on matching bids on Reef is the way to go. Seeing his height at 193, and having that late year birthday. Does he get to 194cm? 195cm? 196cm? If he can play midfield at that height, and he's a serious athlete and comfortable at ground level. A threat when he pushes forward and can take a mark. I'm comfortable with my final position for him on my draft board. I would match bids on Reef if indeed that pick comes before Collingwood's pick.
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Any player at 194/195 with the pace and agility McInnes has (you would need to think he has another 2-3cm growth) has to be a weapon either playing Mid-Fwd-HB.

Just wish he was available for Richmond
 
Prochard123 said:
Hi KM,

On your power ranking you have McInnes at 8th. I recall you mentioning that if Essendon bids at 6-8 we shouldn't match. My question is if that turned out to be the case, who on your power ranking list can we realistically get at 14/16 that's better than McInnes?

I still don't think Essendon genuinely rates McInnes. Instead, Dodoro is only claiming this to subtract more value from us via our 2021 1st. It's quite obvious that we shouldn't sell off a potential top 5/8 pick in a super draft for such little value, but then again Ned Guy has gone far lower the little expectation I had for him.
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We should match the bid even if it comes in the top 10 imo. The kids a massive talent and I reckon we’d be kicking ourselves later on down the track if we let him go.
 
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