Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2012 Mock Draft

[Knightmare]

Then there is the question "should the GWS do what the mini-draft was intended to do and trade the picks for mature players ". I know I know, there is more chance of hell freezing over but it should still be an "option " ......

It's a possibility. If they GWS end up making the trade for a current AFL player expect it to be for a player in the 19-24 age bracket though. It's the way they have gone with all their previous pickups.

I'd like to see both GWS and Gold Coast really look to add to that top end leadership to really help accelerate the growth of the younger players so I do think your idea has some merit but I don't think it is a direction either club will go in.

GWS more likely will look to add some more experience might look underappreciated/unwanted players in their 30 who have been proven and can help from a leadership standpoint and otherwise just continue to build that young core group so that once it peaks, it will be something greater than what even Gold Coast can compete with.

hi Knightmare,

what are your thoughts on Matt Northe, Nick Graham, Ben Kearns and Josh Cashman from Gippsland Power?

and where do you see them in terms of being drafted?

All in the mix but more likely as later/rookie selections. Their stocks can still rise with strong finals performances though and in a strong Power side I wouldn't count any of these out.

Northe has shown some up forward and through the midfield. Unlucky not to make the Country squad. Thin build but has impressed with his courage and attack on the footy. Gives those 2nd and 3rd efforts and has shown strong improvement this year.

Both Graham and Kearns impressed v NSW/ACT in the champs.

Graham has impressed with his composure and ball use. Skill level impressive and always keeps his feet in the contest.

Kearns has shown some through the midfield and while he doesn't play forward often in the one or two games he has played forward has done some damage.

Cashman has shown down back this season and also has impressed in the past on a wing. Has some quickness and hits his targets by foot.

 

[jjami15]

Was quite impressed with Wines and I remember when Caddy was playing Nationals and liked him as well. Obviously they are inside players but outside of this do you see any other similarities?

 

[Knightmare]

Was quite impressed with Wines and I remember when Caddy was playing Nationals and liked him as well. Obviously they are inside players but outside of this do you see any other similarities?

Both are hard at the ball and strongly built inside ball winning beasts. Both are excellent clearance players and contested ball winners so the inside aspects of their games are similar. Wines for mine has the better all round game and is the more polished of the two. Wines is just so composed and his decision making and ball use by both hand and foot. It's rare for an inside player to be able to do much of what he does. Both are excellent players though and have great futures ahead of them at AFL level. No doubt.

Hey KM, not playing footy anymore, you going to head to any (TAC) games this week and check out the talent there?

Would love to put a face to the name..

The Collingwood game is very early this week and coming up against Hawthorn I don't want to miss it. With the timing of it if I can get to any game it might be Collingwood v Box Hill in the VFL but after a busy week my plan at this stage is to catch up on some sleep.

Will have to figure out a time some time down the road though.

 

[Yoda_]

Just realised that there is no TAC games this w.e thats rather annoying.. whats the go there ?

 

[Knightmare]

Just realised that there is no TAC games this w.e thats rather annoying.. whats the go there ?

It functions as a mid season break of sorts. I'm pretty run down after a busy week so I can't say I'm disappointed with the timing.

 

[nick1408]

It may be a midweek break but I bet the players have all gone back to their club sides to play first grade

 

[wallycleaver]

It functions as a mid season break of sorts. I'm pretty run down after a busy week so I can't say I'm disappointed with the timing.

Just had a look at you revised draft and your later picks. Sorry Knightmare, if you want to be taken seriously , it appears after pick 30 you are pulling names out of your arse.
You have a definate top 20 to 40 pick at 67(obviously havnt heard of him) in Tom Clurey,and next pick you have a kid who didnt make Murray Bushrangers last sixty, or the NSW squad of fifty for nationals. Being under 18 and not playing TACcupI don't think he can even nominate for the draft.

There will be posters come on here and give me a serve for questioning your wisdom and knowledge, but mate could you give me (and others on here) a quick explanation. We all look foward to your answer.

 

[Knightmare]

Just had a look at you revised draft and your later picks. Sorry Knightmare, if you want to be taken seriously , it appears after pick 30 you are pulling names out of your arse.
You have a definate top 20 to 40 pick at 67(obviously havnt heard of him) in Tom Clurey,and next pick you have a kid who didnt make Murray Bushrangers last sixty, or the NSW squad of fifty for nationals. Being under 18 I don't think he can even apply for the draft.

My phone has lit up the last hour or so from guys laughing their heads off. There will be posters come on here and give me a serve for questioning your wisdom and knowledge, but mate you cant bullshit a bullshitter

It seems your expectations of me are too high then. I'm not Colin Wisbey, I do have a life outside of scouting. I'm not part of an AFL club and I don't have access to that same level of recources from footage to availability of stats so my scouting is not nearly up to the standard of AFL clubs and as one person without the same level of resources some other scouts have access do I'll openly admit I'm not going to have the same accuracy outside of the top 40 as AFL clubs will.

I just do my own research. Watch the u18 champs every year. Tac Cup, APS, VFL and whatever footage I can get my hands on from other states. My respect goes out to Quigley, Snoop Dog, Chris25 and those others who put in the work each year and do their own research. I have plenty of time for everyone who puts in the work and shares their findings and every year I learn plenty from all these excellent posters. We are all amateurs here - or at least I am and just working to get better at identifying talent and correctly annalysing how good they will be at AFL level every year. My knowledge of the draft prospects only gets better as the year progresses through read any material I can get my hands on and annalysing all the footage I can find so expect my power rankings to be allot better come draft time.

I welcome you to put up your own draft to go along with descriptions and player ratings and I enjoy nothing more than learning from what other like minded scouts have to say.

 

[Raymann]

Knighta, I wouldn't concern yourself with the armchair critics who cry foul for their friends but don't put up!

I am in awe of your commitment to your hobby and believe that your descriptions are accurate.

There is no doubt you know your stuff. You are a must read by all club recruiters.

Keep up the good work!

 

[BigCat2]

For those who are trying to bash work of people like Knightmare's - put up your own mock, state reasons for why certain players should / shouldn't be so high, or shut up. He's put countless hours of work into this, and is prepared to share it with all of us. He's already said he won't be right all the time - heck, not even the professional recruiters can say that. But he's still good enough to put it out there and invite discussion.

Constructive discussions and feedback are ok. Baseless criticisms without facts or balanced arguments to back them up are not.

If you don't like his opinion, don't read this thread.

Try put up your own mock - and see how you like unfounded, unexplained criticism from others.

 

[wallycleaver]

It seems your expectations of me are too high then. I'm not Colin Wisbey, I do have a life outside of scouting. I'm not part of an AFL club and I don't have access to that same level of recources from footage to availability of stats so my scouting is not nearly up to the standard of AFL clubs and as one person without the same level of resources some other scouts have access do I'll openly admit I'm not going to have the same accuracy outside of the top 40 as AFL clubs will.

I just do my own research. Watch the u18 champs every year. Tac Cup, APS, VFL and whatever footage I can get my hands on from other states. My respect goes out to Quigley, Snoop Dog, Chris25 and those others who put in the work each year and do their own research. I have plenty of time for everyone who puts in the work and shares their findings and every year I learn plenty from all these excellent posters. We are all amateurs here - or at least I am and just working to get better at identifying talent and correctly annalysing how good they will be at AFL level every year. My knowledge of the draft prospects only gets better as the year progresses through read any material I can get my hands on and annalysing all the footage I can find so expect my power rankings to be allot better come draft time.

I welcome you to put up your own draft to go along with descriptions and player ratings and I enjoy nothing more than learning from what other like minded scouts have to say.

Not at all enjoy your reads. My reply was probably a bit over the top. If you reread you will see I had amended while you were replying. Probably more a shock, but what these posters after you dont get is there are idiots like me who know or know of kids in their region/area, be it Metro, Country, NSW etc. who are going to call you on some of your selections.
Again I admire your efforts, didnt realise my response would cause such a shitstorm.

 

[tigs2010]

Not at all enjoy your reads. My reply was probably a bit over the top. If you reread you will see I had amended while you were replying. Probably more a shock, but what these posters after you dont get is there are idiots like me who know or know of kids in their region/area, be it Metro, Country, NSW etc. who are going to call you on some of your selections.
Again I admire your efforts, didnt realise my response would cause such a shitstorm.

Why don't you give him some names so he can try get some footage on them? Not like he has a network of recruiters working for him that can find them. FWIW I think Clurey will go late first early 2nd.

 

[tigs2010]

Read the word hypothetical! It is an imagenary scenario.ITS NOT REAL.

Lol I get that. But if your phone lit up with all these calls laughing at KM because he put Yelland in there, then surely you have some names of players who would be more deserving. Tipping you probably have no idea seems you've ignored the question 3 times.

 

[wallycleaver]

But you're saying someone doesn't deserve to be in there because there are better players from the region. So who are they? If there isn't anyone that you think should be ahead of Yelland then you wouldn't have commented.

Last time. He didnt make his local TAC cup squad. He is in neither the Swans academy or GWS academy. He cannot be drafted as he has not played TAC and is under 18.
By TAC lists there are 46 better players in the region. This is not about deserving, its about not being able to be drafted.

 

[tigs2010]

Last time. He didnt make his local TAC cup squad. He is in neither the Swans academy or GWS academy. He cannot be drafted as he has not played TAC and is under 18.
By TAC lists there are 46 better players in the region. This is not about deserving, its about not being able to be drafted.

Not 100% certain but can't you be drafted out of local leagues. Provided he plays for a team and enters the draft.

 

[Ruse]

Read the word hypothetical! It is an imagenary scenario.ITS NOT REAL.

I'm not getting it, are you trying to say that Knightmare is maybe heavily favouring vic metro and interstate kids in his draft even though some like aren't as good as vic country kids? Sorry its late and I'm slightly drunk so my brain isn't working that good.

 

[wallycleaver]

I'm not getting it, are you trying to say that Knightmare is maybe heavily favouring vic metro and interstate kids in his draft even though some like aren't as good as vic country kids? Sorry its late and I'm slightly drunk so my brain isn't working that good.

No not at all. Its a scenario to relate to a previous post. Knightmares mock is fine, I wish I'd never replied................

 

[Knightmare]

NM your mock draft is a good try but your better using your knowledge in your own area of expertise which is metro melb , APS footy, and dandenong which I dont recognise as a country side . Do your own draft for that area. dont bite off more than you can chew ! I know 10-15 kids from country tac sides (not dandenong) will go in top 50 your missing so many

I do everything I can to get as complete a draft knowledge as I possibly can. Whether it be country boys, those from other states and state leaguers. My research as every year by this point in time is only half way through the process so expect my knowledge to be more rounded and complete by the end of the year.

There will always be some gaps and players I miss but as I do every year I'll do what I can to miss fewer and fewer every year.

Not at all enjoy your reads. My reply was probably a bit over the top. If you reread you will see I had amended while you were replying. Probably more a shock, but what these posters after you dont get is there are idiots like me who know or know of kids in their region/area, be it Metro, Country, NSW etc. who are going to call you on some of your selections.
Again I admire your efforts, didnt realise my response would cause such a shitstorm.

I'm happy to be called out on particular player rankings and players I've missed. I can't possibly see every player and I see different quantities of all players so there will be varying degrees of my knowledge on specific prospects.

Then you see a mock with say Nathan Wright going around pick 40 say, and our friend who was cut from the Stingrays in February, appearing at pick 41 in front of a host of Stingers stars, even though he cannot nominate for the draft because he is under 18 and hasn't played TAC cup. (If I am wrong on this one I Apologise but I think I am right)
PS. I really don't think that many club recruiters read these mocks and take them seriously..........
Cheers

Wright is of draft age this year assuming afl.com is correct. Played u18 champs and showed he can play and I expect with his athleticism a club would take the shot. Not sure why he misses out? Maybe there is some draft rule I'm missing and don't know about but I don't see why he misses out? Maybe you can tell me more.

I don't see the purpose of these mock drafts as being for AFL clubs. I'd be honoured if any AFL clubs even briefly skimmed any of my work but as far as I'm concerned having these mock drafts is about giving the public and those interested in the draft more information - the media doesn't do nearly enough to satisfy my interest in the draft and I expect the same to be the case for many on here who are looking for information on some of the more prominant draft prospects. It's hardly any good just getting a mock draft from AFL.com one or two days before the real draft. I want information six months, one year, two years out from the draft. Not the night before.

 

[Ruse]

Just out of curiosity, just how many scouts do clubs have in a state like victoria? Is it like dozens of scouts per club just scouting in victoria then more in other states or is it like less than 5 per club or what?

 

[wallycleaver]

I do everything I can to get as complete a draft knowledge as I possibly can. Whether it be country boys, those from other states and state leaguers. My research as every year by this point in time is only half way through the process so expect my knowledge to be more rounded and complete by the end of the year.

There will always be some gaps and players I miss but as I do every year I'll do what I can to miss fewer and fewer every year.



I'm happy to be called out on particular player rankings and players I've missed. I can't possibly see every player and I see different quantities of all players so there will be varying degrees of my knowledge on specific prospects.



Wright is of draft age this year assuming afl.com is correct. Played u18 champs and showed he can play and I expect with his athleticism a club would take the shot. Not sure why he misses out? Maybe there is some draft rule I'm missing and don't know about but I don't see why he misses out? Maybe you can tell me more.

I don't see the purpose of these mock drafts as being for AFL clubs. I'd be honoured if any AFL clubs even briefly skimmed any of my work but as far as I'm concerned having these mock drafts is about giving the public and those interested in the draft more information - the media doesn't do nearly enough to satisfy my interest in the draft and I expect the same to be the case for many on here who are looking for information on some of the more prominant draft prospects. It's hardly any good just getting a mock draft from AFL.com one or two days before the real draft. I want information six months, one year, two years out from the draft. Not the night before.

Knightmare
He doesn't miss out. Wright is a gun will be top twenty. It has nothing to do with Wright. I just used his name to clarify my analogy to Raymann. It is the fictituous player I use after Wright in my hypothetical who would miss out. I guess I must be speaking in riddles on my posts.
Keep up the great work. I have called you on one in ninety. Again keep up the great work

 

[Damo80]

I guess I must be speaking in riddles on my posts.

I think so

If I understand correctly, you're not necessarily pointing out the fact that KM has missed players you think worthy etc (as an amateur doing this as a hobby, you wouldn't take him to task on that). It seems there is at least one player on KM's list (you keep saying "hypothetical", but I'm assuming there is a real name on his list that you simply don't want to draw attention to?) who missed the TAC squad for his region which indicates:

a) He's not eligible to be drafted (as far as we understand AFL draft eligibility rules), and
b) It indicates that he's not in the best 46 odd kids in his region, therefore how can he be considered in the top 50 odd prospects in this year's national draft.

Am I understanding your correctly?

If so, I'd be interested to know also what KM see's in this player that warrants his selection in his mock, or if it's simply a case of mistaken identity, or an outright error?

 

[wallycleaver]

I think so

If I understand correctly, you're not necessarily pointing out the fact that KM has missed players you think worthy etc (as an amateur doing this as a hobby, you wouldn't take him to task on that). It seems there is at least one player on KM's list (you keep saying "hypothetical", but I'm assuming there is a real name on his list that you simply don't want to draw attention to?) who missed the TAC squad for his region which indicates:

a) He's not eligible to be drafted (as far as we understand AFL draft eligibility rules), and
b) It indicates that he's not in the best 46 odd kids in his region, therefore how can he be considered in the top 50 odd prospects in this year's national draft.

Am I understanding your correctly?

If so, I'd be interested to know also what KM see's in this player that warrants his selection in his mock, or if it's simply a case of mistaken identity, or an outright error?

Bingo Damo. Spot on. You've got it.
If I hadn't been such a smartarse with my first post before editing(which I think I said as much in my edit) there wouldnt have been quite the reaction.

Again Knightmare does a great job, probably got a name from someone. Anyway, not a big deal

 

[festa1234]

hey KM love your work im just curious as to how you come up with all this info are you employed as a recruiter or is the just a hobby, seems like a massive job you do and it is much appreciated, you seem very knowledgable and im sure you could get a gig doing this at a club somewhere

 

[Chris25]

#48 Port Adelaide- Laine Wilkins (WA – Mid/Fwd)
Height: 189cm, Weight: 78kg, DOB: 30/03/1994
Recruited from:
Style:
Player comparison:
Range: 25-rookie
Profile: Outside running type player who can either play on a wing or up forward but in my view looks better up the ground. Wilkins has sensational pace and freak athleticism with a great leap on him and linebreaking pace. Would have to be in the top five for both pace and leap this year which will intrigue clubs. Ball use good but not great. When he rests forward he can often impact the scoreboard and do some damage but really lacks consistency in his play up forward relying purely on his athleticism to get by. Really exciting player and one of those players who can really turn a game with some of the things he can do but at the same time he seems to really lack substance. Needs to win more of his ball, find more of it around the ground and when playing forward with his speed needs to greatly improve his tackle numbers. Just needs to add a few more things to his play and get more ball to really be a consistent player, but with his standout athleticism is sure to get drafted.
Why:

I disagree about Wilkins lacking substance to his game, and getting by purely on athleticism. But I just wanted to point something out about the stats - the WAFL website is notorious for getting their stats incorrect. The tackle numbers are usually the least accurate. Which certainly doesn't help anyone.

 

[Knightmare]

I disagree about Wilkins lacking substance to his game, and getting by purely on athleticism. But I just wanted to point something out about the stats - the WAFL website is notorious for getting their stats incorrect. The tackle numbers are usually the least accurate. Which certainly doesn't help anyone.

I was just going off what I was seeing in the u18 champs with Wilkins. He has incredible pace but I just didn't see him land enough tackles for someone so quick. He didn't really seem to hunt the ball enough. Particularly when he played forward this really stood out as something missing from his game that really needs to be there.

Then his goals in the final game felt like an outlier in many respects - mostly cheap goals which I wouldn't imagine him being able to replicate on a regular basis. It just felt like he was getting by on his athleticism - just doesn't feel like he has enough tricks.

You had the knowledge of Wilkins coming into the season so I'm happy to be corrected on any of this with regards to his tackling or other features of his game that are prominant that I've missed. Any oversights on my part I'll look into and will make sure I get my hands on some more footage of Wilkins late season if there is something I really need to see on your recommendation.

With regard to the WAFL website stats I'm finding the same. It seems all players from all levels of competition over there seem to be landing significantly less tackles so I'm mostly ignoring the tackle stats because it seems like a consistent mistake accross all players. The rest of it seems mostly correct or close.