Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2014 Phantom Draft

[Knightmare]

KM, What did you think of the Cats selections?
10 - Cockatoo
47 - Gregson
55 - Gore
60 - Cunico

Gregson threw me a bit, didn't know much about him, but reasonably happy overall - they all seem to have pace and skill.

Cheers

Reasonable draft by Geelong.

Cockatoo was surprising to a degree and some will call it a stretch but I like it. In the days in the leadup to the draft though I was hearing a bit more detail regarding Cockatoo in relation to who he is and the development of his inside game and I'm liking what I'm hearing and he has the chance to really go on and become special, with Geelong a great environment for him to develop in with a strong development program. He could well be one of the best to come out of this draft and a terrific list fit. The more I think about it the more I like the selection.

Gregson at 47 is earlier than I would have taken him given the availability of some of the other options as a small but in saying that I also get it and like what he offers around the ball.

Gore was the value pick of the Geelong group and the list addition that I'd be excited about as a guy I would have been prepared even as early as pick 35 to look at.

Cunico I understand the addition of with his running ability on the outside. Footskills can let him down which is my primarily concern and he isn't as dominant an accumulator as some other outside types in this draft so he isn't someone I necessarily would have drafted personally but late draft he isn't a terrible choice either.

Don't you think those players would be a chance of going much sooner than Geelong?

Keitel and Bampton could for all we know both go before Geelong's first rookie selection. But at the same time with the rookie draft clubs will pick more for need and be looking more at some unthorodox guys so in the rookie draft there are always guys available later in the rookie draft than expected.

A key defender is certainly an area of need for us and makes sense.

I wasn't shocked that Bampton missed out altogether in the ND though surely he gets a rookie spot. Clearly his foot disposal is his achilles heel. Whilst on inside mids - how do you rate Mellington? His highlights look impressive enough and I believe he played well on Brayshaw late in the season. What are the doubts on his game?

Mellington improved as the season went along which I like. He is one as a rookie I'd like to see receive a shot. Good inside game. Nice left foot kick. Reasonably strong overhead and reads it well. Moves pretty well. Disposal efficiency perhaps not as good as it could be, sometimes trying to do too much and overall there are still some better performed mids but as a rookie I'd like to see him get a shot as he does based on his traits and rate of improvement have some further scope to improve.
Richmond as an example are one team I could see taking Mellington.

 

[Knightmare]

KM, first thanks for all your hard work with this years draft, excellent as always.

2 Questions, Is the rookie draft order club by club available anywhere yet??

Given Adelaide didn't really address our need for a player with good speed and excellent skills by foot I'm wondering who you feel could be good options in the rookie draft for us with that in mind, personally I like a lad I've seen play a few times up here in Ballarat for the Rebels and St. Pats Tom Templeton, from what I've seen on those few occasions he has good speed, goes in hard has and excellent all round skills and has a very good left foot kick which our new coach Phil Walsh seems to have a penchant for???

It's just reverse ladder order in terms of who selects first in the rookie draft.

AFL.com probably will put something out regarding how many active picks each club have.

For pace some names that come to mind include: Jason Castagna, Jermaine Miller-Lewis, Will Fordham, Brenden Abbott and Billy Gowers could be among the considerations with those guys either linebreakers or guys who at the very least move well for their size and type.

Tom Templeton could be a possibility. Perhaps not as well performed as some others with his numbers only moderate but athletically and from a skillset perspective he is capable and a possible selection.

 

[RedmanWasHere]

Operation get Kovacevic in the RD Essendon.
Make it happen.

Knighters, am I begging for too much?

Also, how many RD picks do you reckon Essendon will use?

 

[captain cotch 9]

How do you rate the tigers draft?
Menadue will be a star imo.
Drummond could play next year.
Mckenzie will play all next year in the VFL but seems to be highly rated and everyone is surprised he slipped to 77.

 

[Boar]

Mr Knightmare,
Who would St Kilda be eyeing off for Pick 1? We didn't draft too many mids, does that lock in Bampton?

Others might be Keitel or McLaren. What are you thinking?

 

[SaintsSeptember]

How do you rate the tigers draft?
Menadue will be a star imo.
Drummond could play next year.
Mckenzie will play all next year in the VFL but seems to be highly rated and everyone is surprised he slipped to 77.

Its probably pretty good. But Knightmare has made no secret of which players he rates the most highly ( page 1 ) so you should be able to tell from how he rated the players you took. From his power ratings he seems to think that McKenzie has more potential than Menadue.
( Unless he's changed his mind, or I've misinterpreted his power ratings ).

 

[Knightmare]

Operation get Kovacevic in the RD Essendon.
Make it happen.

Knighters, am I begging for too much?

Also, how many RD picks do you reckon Essendon will use?

Essendon I expect will favour Tagliabue needing someone more immediate with Bellchambers injury prone and Ryder gone with Giles that only other option.

But Kovacevic has some scope to develop and of the young rucks may be the better of the options in this draft class. I wouldn't be begging for him but I'd none the less advocate clubs strongly consider him if looking for a young ruckman in the rookie draft as someone with some scope to develop.

 

[Knightmare]

How do you rate the tigers draft?
Menadue will be a star imo.
Drummond could play next year.
Mckenzie will play all next year in the VFL but seems to be highly rated and everyone is surprised he slipped to 77.

Menadue could go either way but he has star potential if developed well and he can put size onto his frame without losing any of his running - speed and endurance.

Reece McKenzie is what makes that draft for Richmond if he develops as I hope. If he fails to develop it's a middle of the road draft. If McKenzie develops as I hope then terrific draft.

I certainly have Richmond in the better half and possibly the better 3-4 if you want me to quantify it without going through player by player and comparing all my ratings for all clubs.

It's a real speed and running theme overall in this draft which Richmond could use, it's just down to correct talent identification as to whether those guys identified were good ones.

Mr Knightmare,
Who would St Kilda be eyeing off for Pick 1? We didn't draft too many mids, does that lock in Bampton?

Others might be Keitel or McLaren. What are you thinking?

If I was picking I'd go with Bampton. He is the best guy still available and his SANFL League performances even these past couple of seasons suggest he can play at the next level.

Keitel or McLaren could be considerations. Probably wouldn't consider any of them priorities with Goddard as a key defender an excellent get.

Brett Eddy is another I like for the Saints as a mature key forward who can give the Saints at worst some more depth and I'd say after Riewoldt he would today if drafted by the Saints be that second best key forward on that list.

Josh Glenn, Will Fordham or a few others as outside types may with some of those other picks be available or could if satisfied with the inside group be good alternatives. Nic Newman as a mature age back flanker is another I like and could see as a fit.

Its probably pretty good. But Knightmare has made no secret of which players he rates the most highly ( page 1 ) so you should be able to tell from how he rated the players you took. From his power ratings he seems to think that McKenzie has more potential than Menadue.
( Unless he's changed his mind, or I've misinterpreted his power ratings ).

Your interpretation of my power rankings is right.

It doesn't necessarily reflect that I'd always take the highest rated talent first. Knowing R.McKenzie would fall into the second half of the draft somewhere based on fairly strong media rumours I wouldn't have used a pick until at least 40 to pick him. As an example of how I work my power rankings knowing there was a fair chance Blakely would be there at 30 and R.McKenzie at 48 I advocated that Collingwood to maximise the number of highly rated players I get (so then I end up with Laverde, Blakely and R.McKenzie instead of say R.McKenzie, Blakely then Gore to follow my power rankings).
You can see my pre-draft Collingwood thread here to backup this way of thinking: http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threa...iscussion-to-new-draft-review-thread.1082299/

I obviously wasn't aware R.McKenzie would be there at 75, so I wouldn't have risked not knowing with certainty a Carlton in the 50s or 60s would skip on him in favour of Jayden Foster. But that's the way it goes sometimes.

In terms of how I'm evaluating drafts. If clubs get a bunch of guys I rated higher than where they went then I'm likely to be pretty positive towards the way that club drafted. Melbourne and Essendon are examples of this. Take guys earlier than I rate them such as Carlton and GWS this year and I won't be as positive towards their drafts.

 

[Balony_pony16]

Knight... thoughts on the Lions passing on McKenzie late and opting for McGrath & Watts. The lions board were licking their lips thinking we could get a steal late.

 

[Knightmare]

Knight... thoughts on the Lions passing on McKenzie late and opting for McGrath & Watts. The lions board were licking their lips thinking we could get a steal late.

All 18 clubs must know something I don't regarding R.McKenzie. There has been strong talk the last few days that the Richmond recruiting team were divided on R.McKenzie with only a portion of their recruiting team happy with the decision to draft him, even in the 70s.

But from everything I've observed R.McKenzie is someone I'd want to build a front half around. He comes across as having pride in his performance, pride in his body and he is improving rapidly so he is presumably putting in the work. Pretty hard at 107kg to score a 2.87sec 20m time and finish in the top 10 for vertical jump. Then on top of that being an excellent basketball player growing up as well as an excellent footballer and all that doesn't usually happen by accident.
He doesn't appear to be a party boy or like he does anything off-field he shouldn't be doing. So until he is in the AFL system for a few years and his issues become more publically apparent I'll be as out of the loop on this one as yourself.

And it seemed Brisbane just agreed with all the other clubs that R.McKenzie isn't someone they want at their club. So it's up to young Reece to go out there and prove all the club recruiters wrong by putting in the work and becoming the dominant go to forward he has the talent to become.

 

[bmaurizio]

Hi KM, what are thoughts on the Baggers's drafting, there is uncertainty regarding selection 19.
Appreciate your comments.
Ciao

 

[wvass61]

All 18 clubs must know something I don't regarding R.McKenzie. There has been strong talk the last few days that the Richmond recruiting team were divided on R.McKenzie with only a portion of their recruiting team happy with the decision to draft him, even in the 70s.

But from everything I've observed R.McKenzie is someone I'd want to build a front half around. He comes across as having pride in his performance, pride in his body and he is improving rapidly so he is presumably putting in the work. Pretty hard at 107kg to score a 2.87sec 20m time and finish in the top 10 for vertical jump. Then on top of that being an excellent basketball player growing up as well as an excellent footballer and all that doesn't usually happen by accident.
He doesn't appear to be a party boy or like he does anything off-field he shouldn't be doing. So until he is in the AFL system for a few years and his issues become more publically apparent I'll be as out of the loop on this one as yourself.

And it seemed Brisbane just agreed with all the other clubs that R.McKenzie isn't someone they want at their club. So it's up to young Reece to go out there and prove all the club recruiters wrong by putting in the work and becoming the dominant go to forward he has the talent to become.

With every club passing on Reecy after several phantoms had him inside 30, wonder why our recruiters were divided over such a late pick? The combo of the 2 makes me think there's gotta be something off the field we havn't heard about is going on, especially after i read one article from 3 months ago which said Reecy will take the AFL by storm. Really feel there's something off field or otherwise we are not hearing about.

 

[aussierulesrules]

"Laziness" I was told before the draft (when told we wouldn't go near him).

 

[wvass61]

"Laziness" I was told before the draft (when told we wouldn't go near him).

Laziness would never stop me as a recruiter from recruiting a player that some had in the top 10 pre draft. With the right environment, laziness can be ironed out. Gotta be something else.

 

[aussierulesrules]

I know that our club for one put a huge emphasis on work ethic and won't draft someone if they believe it is a genuine concern and it would seem that other clubs agree, because he obviously has a lot going for him otherwise (although he didn't have the runs on the board against strong opposition, so that would have also counted against him).

One club reportedly put a line through someone's name recently because they asked to see their room and it was messy, so they figured they were lazy and that was enough to tip the scales against them.

A couple of years ago I was told we put a line through someone's name because when we rang them they were watching a movie and when we dug deeper we found out they had watched DVD after DVD for days on end, when we reckon they should have been training in preparation for potentially starting an AFL preseason just a week or so later, and figured they were lazy.

It doesn't take much to tip the scales against you these days with the amount of due-diligence the clubs do.

 

[wvass61]

I know that our club for one put a huge emphasis on work ethic and won't draft someone if they believe it is a genuine concern and it would seem that other clubs agree, because he obviously has a lot going for him otherwise (although he didn't have the runs on the board against strong opposition, so that would have also counted against him).

I see what your saying but surely with an 18 yr old who pre draft was predicted by knighmare that if things went right for Reecy, that he would end up better than Wright, you would think your club would have the environment in place to get that work ethic problem sorted out. In all the yrs I've followed the draft, i can't remember a more bizarre pick from the fact of some having him top 5 to every club by passing him, then our recruiters divided on taking him. Am certain it wouldn't be just a work ethic prob. The ups and downs and ifs and buts about this guy has me more puzzled than any Richmond recruit i can ever remember.

 

[Knightmare]

Hi KM, what are thoughts on the Baggers's drafting, there is uncertainty regarding selection 19.
Appreciate your comments.
Ciao

If you look through my power rankings over the years and compare it to Carlton's actual draft selections you'll find consistently that the guys Carlton draft are rated low on my draft boards relative to the selection used to acquire them and it's the same story this year.

In addition to my power rankings which I devise prior to every draft not agreeing with Carlton's selections more often than not the outcome over the years for Carlton on draft day has proven to be poor to the extent that an argument could be made that Carlton have the league's worst talent identification or if not then close to.

Where Carlton relatively go better is in identifying opposition talent which recently has proven to achieve relatively better results.

On this years guys. Boekhorst I definitely wouldn't have taken at 19 and I saw him more as a mid-late draft selection. That was the one selection in the first round I think for most people would have looked at with shock and thought "that's early!" In saying that Boekhorst has some pace and some role playing potential which isn't ideal at 19 but could be enough for him to make the grade which still would be a fine outcome at 19.
Viojo-Rainbow can really deliver some penetrating, low, hard kicks but can at times lack some consistency and probably doesn't have enough other tricks for me and while taken roughly in the range he was expected to go I wouldn't have taken him in the national draft myself.
Clem Smith at 60 I like that Carlton have taken a chance. If he plays down back he'll struggle at the next level but you have to like the way he goes about it on the field and perhaps as a pressure forward has a chance to make it if he makes some adjustments to his game.
Then Jayden Foster at 63 while well performed in the TAC Cup isn't someone I'm optimistic about at AFL level because with those key forwards you really want guys who have superior talent by position and Foster looks more like a very good state leaguer rather than someone who can hold down that post at AFL level more than as a depth guy. Again I'd be looking at him more as a rookie rather than a national draft pick given this projection.

Whether everything goes this way remains to be seen. But that's my best guess at this point.

"Laziness" I was told before the draft (when told we wouldn't go near him).

I'm even sceptical of the laziness tag. Maybe he is but looking at the size of him and his athleticism I'm far from convinced.

 

[Chris25]

With every club passing on Reecy after several phantoms had him inside 30, wonder why our recruiters were divided over such a late pick?

Inconsistent, poor kick, doesn't run hard enough, average on the lead. I've compared him many times with forwards the level of Levi Casboult and Ben Brown. Serviceable at best. And there's a reason why Ryan Willits name popped up a bit as a comparison too. He resembles a ruckman resting forward at times.

I was, and still am, a fan. But when you look past the whole 'he is so big and strong' thing then it's easy to see why he wasn't regarded the same in the real world as he was on bigfooty.

 

[Suma Magic]

KM - thanks for your efforts this year.

Best of luck with getting a recruiting gig. You deserve it.

 

[Kappa]

Laziness would never stop me as a recruiter from recruiting a player that some had in the top 10 pre draft. With the right environment, laziness can be ironed out. Gotta be something else.

Don't be so sure laziness is something that can easily be ironed out

Some people will always just be lazy

 

[mike123]

Will Colin Sylvia pull his head in?

 

[Magpiesweloveu]

KM - do you think some clubs didn't take kpp as they have someone in mind next year? Ie. Jeremy Cameron?

 

[Knightmare]

KM - do you think some clubs didn't take kpp as they have someone in mind next year? Ie. Jeremy Cameron?

That could be a possibility.

It's mostly Adam Treloar who has been most heavily rumoured to be leaving. In past years Dylan Shiel was another though that talk seems to have died down some.

Jeremy Cameron is that one everyone will want but hard to see GWS letting him go unless a club offered up say the equivalent of Griffen and pick 6 or better.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Unless he re-signs in the meantime, Cameron would be out of contract though and GWS would have little say in it. They could lose him in the PSD if they didn't accept what a club that Cameron nominated offered them.

If he plays well next year, clubs are going to be coming so hard for him it won't be funny. He will probably have his choice of multi-million dollar, long term offers.

 

[Knightmare]

If he plays well next year, clubs are going to be coming so hard for him it won't be funny. He will probably have his choice of multi-million dollar, long term offers.

Given the offer to Boyd I can only imagine the offers for Cameron would be even more generous.