Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2015 Draft Almanac

[Old Campaigner]

Knightmare, Curnow seems to have dropped from your power ratings and hence also dropped in the phantom draft also, any reasons for this?

And if Essendon were to keep pick 4 would he be in consideration in your opinion or is the gap between him and Parish/Francis too large, despite our need for a key forward. (especially with Carlisle leaving now)

Do we need another key forward with McKernan's apparent revival? He might not be as good as we'd like but if he's up to playing second fiddle to Daniher he might be all we need in the short term.

I'd get Curnow anyway if available (hopefully Carlisle gets us a first round pick) and use him as that medium forward/mid type player that seems so damaging at the moment.

 

[SABlue]

Hey Knighmare. You may answered this before but could you see Curnow going as high as the 3rd pick?

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare, Curnow seems to have dropped from your power ratings and hence also dropped in the phantom draft also, any reasons for this?

And if Essendon were to keep pick 4 would he be in consideration in your opinion or is the gap between him and Parish/Francis too large, despite our need for a key forward. (especially with Carlisle leaving now)

I feel I just had Curnow higher than he probably should have been.

I see the prospect of Curnow pushing into the midfield as being too speculative at this stage until he proves it and as a forward while a strong 1v1 mark particularly, I'm increasingly wondering what else he can offer that will make him stand out at the next level.

Parish and Francis are generally seen as picks 3/4 in some order, and Curnow probably falls somewhere around pick 10, maybe around pick 15 even if academy players are included. So while he may be one of those next few on Essendon's draft board, he probably isn't the pick with the likes of Mathieson, maybe Balic and a few other mids probably more likely to be considered first.

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare just asking a question relating to Curnow question asked above. Who should Bombers go for with their first pick?
Curnow who looks ready to start playing seniors and can impact up forward of
Parish who might need a season in the reserves but looks very polished

Loss of Carlise will hurt their structures

Essendon would be thinking about if not bidding on Mills and Hopper. And then taking one of Parish or Francis with Mathieson probably that other consideration.

I'd also personally be considering a bid for Keays, and also looking into Collins, R.Clarke and C.Oliver as some others who aren't as highly rated, but may even be better than a number of those more likely to be considered.

Hey Knighmare. You may answered this before but could you see Curnow going as high as the 3rd pick?

You can never say never, but I'd be surprised if Curnow went that high and I'd predict he goes closer to pick 13 than pick 3 at this point until I hear rumours over the coming months that suggest otherwise.

 

[SABlue]

Essendon would be thinking about if not bidding on Mills and Hopper. And then taking one of Parish or Francis with Mathieson probably that other consideration.

I'd also personally be considering a bid for Keays, and also looking into Collins, R.Clarke and C.Oliver as some others who aren't as highly rated, but may even be better than a number of those more likely to be considered.



You can never say never, but I'd be surprised if Curnow went that high and I'd predict he goes closer to pick 13 than pick 3 at this point until I hear rumours over the coming months that suggest otherwise.

Thanks for that.

 

[Jazny]

Lovell while he does have some really positive elements to his game. It's hard for me to get past the bad.

And as such while he may get into my top 50, he isn't going to push into say my best 20 or best 25 at any point.

2015 power rankings:

24. Kieran Lovell (TAS – MID)

Sorry, KM. I had to do it

 

[gothedons]

hey knightmare do you have your 2014 end of season rankings for this draft? Interested to see who have had big years to move into calculation, and who has slipped down or off the order!

 

[RedmanWasHere]

A different sort of question here.

When the top 10 draft picks are unveiled one by one, what sort songs do we expect to hear on the coverage?

 

[x_les_x]

Hey km, this question might of been asked already but how does ryan burton compare to jake stringer in terms of potential, play style and talent? Both suffered broken legs coming into the draft but it didnt effect stringers position

 

[SABlue]

Hey km, this question might of been asked already but how does ryan burton compare to jake stringer in terms of potential, play style and talent? Both suffered broken legs coming into the draft but it didnt effect stringers position

Don't want to speak for KM and don't know the extent of stringers break but there is a massive question mark on Burtons future. Big unknown on his playing future as it was such a terrible and unusual break. Break was really high up on the lower leg right below the knee joint. Bit of an unknown for the surgeons even as it was a very unusual break. The break will heal but how it effects the knee joint is still unknown.

 

[Ben Drever]

Don't want to speak for KM and don't know the extent of stringers break but there is a massive question mark on Burtons future. Big unknown on his playing future as it was such a terrible and unusual break. Break was really high up on the lower leg right below the knee joint. Bit of an unknown for the surgeons even as it was a very unusual break. The break will heal but how it effects the knee joint is still unknown.

Stringer had 2 breaks bones hanging out through the skin.
Doesnt get much worse

 

[Howard Moon]

Don't want to speak for KM and don't know the extent of stringers break but there is a massive question mark on Burtons future. Big unknown on his playing future as it was such a terrible and unusual break. Break was really high up on the lower leg right below the knee joint. Bit of an unknown for the surgeons even as it was a very unusual break. The break will heal but how it effects the knee joint is still unknown.

how far away is he from a possible game? is he running yet?

 

[Mighty_sainter]

Who are 3 names St kilda would consider in its second pick what type of players? Cheers KM

 

[Mullayo]

I believe (someone correct me if I'm wrong) that the father son and academy bidding happens before trade week. So if that is the case, Collingwood's or any other teams picks would not help GWS in getting Hopper or Kennedy.

With the bidding system now as it is constructed, it is based on a points based system, with each pick in the draft worth a certain number of points. So that will be what GWS will be navigating, quite possible with Hopper and Kennedy to demand high draft selections to acquire, then the likes of Himmerberg, Flynn and Cornell who may also be players GWS may wish to bid on, GWS may need to use some of the picks from next seasons draft in order to secure this years Academy talents and make up those points required to add those talents.

With a pick around 7, GWS I can't imagine would target a genuine on-baller or another genuine key forward. Maybe a Tucker, Curnow, Bonner or Burton as a few examples of players who may be seen as being able to add something GWS may not have at the present time.

Cheers KM that clarifies things. So pick 8 and 27 will be locked in before the draft then we get a new pick for Treloar and it's ours... all ours!
Yeah a key forward who doesn't miss would be the go. Midfield and wings are stacked still got Ahern and Pickett and cricket boy to fit in somewhere.
Plus Hopper and Kennedy with Steele and Barret too.

 

[SABlue]

how far away is he from a possible game? is he running yet?

Not entirely sure. Heard that he was hoping to play a game this season real late but I don't think that eventuated.

 

[Jordie_tackles]

Cheers KM that clarifies things. So pick 8 and 27 will be locked in before the draft then we get a new pick for Treloar and it's ours... all ours!
Yeah a key forward who doesn't miss would be the go. Midfield and wings are stacked still got Ahern and Pickett and cricket boy to fit in somewhere.
Plus Hopper and Kennedy with Steele and Barret too.

Would think any extra picks you have would be of use in gaining hopper and Kennedy personally

 

[Knightmare]

hey knightmare do you have your 2014 end of season rankings for this draft? Interested to see who have had big years to move into calculation, and who has slipped down or off the order!

This is my final draft from last season: http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/knightmare-2014-phantom-draft.1081319/

If I was to update my power rankings, there would be substantial movement.

Jordan De Goey, Harris Andrews, Touk Miller, Brayden Maynard and Mason Cox are among those who certainly would feature more highly if I was to re-do my power rankings from 2014.

Bampton, Turner, McDonagh, Eddy and any others I included who went undrafted would fall outside my power rankings now on updating.

Otherwise while there would be movement, the other movement from a quick glance in the most part would be mostly minor.

Hey km, this question might of been asked already but how does ryan burton compare to jake stringer in terms of potential, play style and talent? Both suffered broken legs coming into the draft but it didnt effect stringers position

Stringer was always the better talent. More impactful, more versatile, had more weapons.

Ryan Burton is more Sam Mayes than he is Jake Stringer stylistically as more a medium leadup forward than someone who can realistically turn games as Stringer can.

Who are 3 names St kilda would consider in its second pick what type of players? Cheers KM

In the second round you may as well get a dartboard, it's just that hard to correctly guess who a club may look at, and even more so still a few months out from the draft without media rumours.

Based on type I'd guess that St Kilda relatively speaking would lean towards a taller type with some pace and good footskills, but there is a difference between having a preference towards a particular type as opposed to seeing a player of that specific type as the top rated player on their draft board.

Wayne Milera (mid/fwd), Ryan Clarke (mid) and Mitchell Hibberd (def/outside - mid) are three names who I could see St Kilda considering in roughly around that second round selection. Milera is in my view the most talented indigenous talent in this draft, and he has some real hurt factor to him mostly on a forward flank, with ability to push through the midfield. Clarke is a super athletic, high endurance running machine who can find the footy in bunches and also provide strong scoreboard impact. And Hibberd is more an outside kicking specialist. To give you some feel for what they offer.

 

[gothedons]

This is my final draft from last season: http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/knightmare-2014-phantom-draft.1081319/

If I was to update my power rankings, there would be substantial movement.

Jordan De Goey, Harris Andrews, Touk Miller, Brayden Maynard and Mason Cox are among those who certainly would feature more highly if I was to re-do my power rankings from 2014.

Bampton, Turner, McDonagh, Eddy and any others I included who went undrafted would fall outside my power rankings now on updating.

Otherwise while there would be movement, the other movement from a quick glance in the most part would be mostly minor.

I meant it the other way - I remember a post from you soon after the 2014 draft (or maybe early this year, with your rankings of this years crop e.g. where did you rate Schache/Weitering et al. before they played the 2015 season and champs (your underage rankings of these guys).

Cheers

 

[Knightmare]

I meant it the other way - I remember a post from you soon after the 2014 draft (or maybe early this year, with your rankings of this years crop e.g. where did you rate Schache/Weitering et al. before they played the 2015 season and champs (your underage rankings of these guys).

Cheers

I don't keep records of where earlier on I rated players. I simply continually update my draft.

In saying I believe earlier in the season a few times my draft was quoted on a few of the boards, maybe the St Kilda, Melbourne or Brisbane boards. So that might be your best bet if you're looking at where I rated players earlier in the season.

To give you some feel. I had the mids first. Mills and Keays I likely will have had at or near the top along with Hopper. Schache from what I can recall I had inside the first round but not among those top few. And Weitering also I will have rated inside the first round without having amongst those first few.

The variation between my draft now and the beginning of this season is without question significant, with Matthew Kennedy and Ryan Clarke as two examples not in my original power rankings from what I recall, and there would be plenty of others in the same boat, with others falling out of my draft completely.

 

[Mighty_sainter]

This is my final draft from last season: http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/knightmare-2014-phantom-draft.1081319/

If I was to update my power rankings, there would be substantial movement.

Jordan De Goey, Harris Andrews, Touk Miller, Brayden Maynard and Mason Cox are among those who certainly would feature more highly if I was to re-do my power rankings from 2014.

Bampton, Turner, McDonagh, Eddy and any others I included who went undrafted would fall outside my power rankings now on updating.

Otherwise while there would be movement, the other movement from a quick glance in the most part would be mostly minor.



Stringer was always the better talent. More impactful, more versatile, had more weapons.

Ryan Burton is more Sam Mayes than he is Jake Stringer stylistically as more a medium leadup forward than someone who can realistically turn games as Stringer can.



In the second round you may as well get a dartboard, it's just that hard to correctly guess who a club may look at, and even more so still a few months out from the draft without media rumours.

Based on type I'd guess that St Kilda relatively speaking would lean towards a taller type with some pace and good footskills, but there is a difference between having a preference towards a particular type as opposed to seeing a player of that specific type as the top rated player on their draft board.

Wayne Milera (mid/fwd), Ryan Clarke (mid) and Mitchell Hibberd (def/outside - mid) are three names who I could see St Kilda considering in roughly around that second round selection. Milera is in my view the most talented indigenous talent in this draft, and he has some real hurt factor to him mostly on a forward flank, with ability to push through the midfield. Clarke is a super athletic, high endurance running machine who can find the footy in bunches and also provide strong scoreboard impact. And Hibberd is more an outside kicking specialist. To give you some feel for what they offer.

Cheers mate

 

[Jack Richards]

Hey KM, What is Clayton Oliver's projection? top 20?

 

[Chris25]

I don't keep records of where earlier on I rated players. I simply continually update my draft.

In saying I believe earlier in the season a few times my draft was quoted on a few of the boards, maybe the St Kilda, Melbourne or Brisbane boards. So that might be your best bet if you're looking at where I rated players earlier in the season.

To give you some feel. I had the mids first. Mills and Keays I likely will have had at or near the top along with Hopper. Schache from what I can recall I had inside the first round but not among those top few. And Weitering also I will have rated inside the first round without having amongst those first few.

The variation between my draft now and the beginning of this season is without question significant, with Matthew Kennedy and Ryan Clarke as two examples not in my original power rankings from what I recall, and there would be plenty of others in the same boat, with others falling out of my draft completely.

If you (or anyone else) is interested, I can see the original pre-edited posts. So could offer you a timeline of your power rankings.

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM, What is Clayton Oliver's projection? top 20?

It is unclear where Oliver places in this draft.

He probably goes around pick 20 which would be my best guess until I hear some media rumours.

I just out and out love Oliver's game. And with every game I'm more and more impressed.

Dominant at stoppages and time after time comes up with the clearance. Has a real physical edge to him. Uses the footy well. Can hit the scoreboard and has the smarts to find the spaces left behind in the front half for easy marks. Can read the flight pretty well as he showed on the weekend and can take some intercept marks when you want him to.

He has the opportunity to become one of the better few in this draft.

Clayton Oliver and Ryan Clarke are the two Victorian prospects I see as grossly underrated this year. They can both be best five players out of this draft.

 

[bobs head soup]

Hey KM, as a Dogs fan I've been pretty rapt with our list build in recent years. Our LM team consistently seem to nail a left field selection. This year our 1st round will be 11-13, 2nd 30ish. I'm curious to see who you would nominate as 2 or 3 likely candidates for the Dogs recruiters with each of these picks.

From my inexpert eye, our recruiters seem to place a high emphasis on character, endurance and foot skills, as well as improving form in the past season. From a list depth perspective, I reckon we'll probably shy away from inside mids, smaller/lightly framed mids, leaning towards bigger bodies, KPPs and explosive outside mids/flankers.

Sorry for the length. Appreciate your time.

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM, as a Dogs fan I've been pretty rapt with our list build in recent years. Our LM team consistently seem to nail a left field selection. This year our 1st round will be 11-13, 2nd 30ish. I'm curious to see who you would nominate as 2 or 3 likely candidates for the Dogs recruiters with each of these picks.

From my inexpert eye, our recruiters seem to place a high emphasis on character, endurance and foot skills, as well as improving form in the past season. From a list depth perspective, I reckon we'll probably shy away from inside mids, smaller/lightly framed mids, leaning towards bigger bodies, KPPs and explosive outside mids/flankers.

Sorry for the length. Appreciate your time.

The Dogs have nailed those recent early selections particularly with Stringer, Macrae and Bontempelli all big time gets. Liberatore, Dahlhaus and others also are just as important to winning.

And you're also probably right with regard to those types most likely targeted with a strong group of on-ballers building and as such I imagine there would be some leaning towards taller, more skilled, more athletic types or quality key position players and maybe ruckmen could be among those other types considered.

I'd feel very comfortable with where the Dogs are selecting, particularly in the first round in what to me feels like somewhat of a sweet spot.
1st round: Ben Keays (Brisbane Academy - worth placing a bid for), Kieran Collins and Ryan Clarke would be my shortlist.
2nd round: *you never quite know who will be there but Wayne Milera, Luke Partington and Jade Gresham would be among those I'd be hoping to see available as again types I personally see value in.
3rd round: *deeper again into the draft it's even more difficult to say who will be there but Michael Hartley, Mitchell Brown and Darcy Cameron are some who may be available and would be worth selecting given list needs.

As for what these guys offer summarised as best as can be practically achieved. Keays is a goalkicking mid who is a strong mark forward of centre. Collins is a strong bodied key defender who can both beat his man in 1v1s and will take his share of intercept marks. Clarke is a high production goalkicking mid who has excellent pace, agility and endurance with his work rate and running consistently noticeable out on the field.

Milera is a damaging fwd/mid. Partington a high production, uses it well by hand and footy and also has some running ability. Gresham is a smallish mid but his numbers are as good as any in this draft.

Hartley is a good mature age key defender who was a once shut down only key defender who can now take some intercept marks. Mitchell Brown used to play for Geelong and can play key forward or back well. And Darcy Cameron is a still youngish ruckman, tap work good and also can sneak forward and take some grabs and kick some goals.