Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2015 Draft Almanac

[bobs head soup]

The Dogs have nailed those recent early selections particularly with Stringer, Macrae and Bontempelli all big time gets. Liberatore, Dahlhaus and others also are just as important to winning.

And you're also probably right with regard to those types most likely targeted with a strong group of on-ballers building and as such I imagine there would be some leaning towards taller, more skilled, more athletic types or quality key position players and maybe ruckmen could be among those other types considered.

I'd feel very comfortable with where the Dogs are selecting, particularly in the first round in what to me feels like somewhat of a sweet spot.
1st round: Ben Keays (Brisbane Academy - worth placing a bid for), Kieran Collins and Ryan Clarke would be my shortlist.
2nd round: *you never quite know who will be there but Wayne Milera, Luke Partington and Jade Gresham would be among those I'd be hoping to see available as again types I personally see value in.
3rd round: *deeper again into the draft it's even more difficult to say who will be there but Michael Hartley, Mitchell Brown and Darcy Cameron are some who may be available and would be worth selecting given list needs.

As for what these guys offer summarised as best as can be practically achieved. Keays is a goalkicking mid who is a strong mark forward of centre. Collins is a strong bodied key defender who can both beat his man in 1v1s and will take his share of intercept marks. Clarke is a high production goalkicking mid who has excellent pace, agility and endurance with his work rate and running consistently noticeable out on the field.

Milera is a damaging fwd/mid. Partington a high production, uses it well by hand and footy and also has some running ability. Gresham is a smallish mid but his numbers are as good as any in this draft.

Hartley is a good mature age key defender who was a once shut down only key defender who can now take some intercept marks. Mitchell Brown used to play for Geelong and can play key forward or back well. And Darcy Cameron is a still youngish ruckman, tap work good and also can sneak forward and take some grabs and kick some goals.

Thanks for such a quick and thorough response KM. Really enjoying your thread.

I've kinda got Nick Coughlan pencilled in as my preferred 3rd rounder and Darcy MacPherson looks our 4th. Will spend a bit of time researching your suggestions for first 2, I'm familiar with a few.

Had already particularly liked the looks of Milera and Clarke amongst a few others.

Thanks again.

 

[gothedons]

If you (or anyone else) is interested, I can see the original pre-edited posts. So could offer you a timeline of your power rankings.

that would be very interesting to see if you can post Chris25 (With knightmares approval of course)

 

[Knightmare]

Thanks for such a quick and thorough response KM. Really enjoying your thread.

I've kinda got Nick Coughlan pencilled in as my preferred 3rd rounder and Darcy MacPherson looks our 4th. Will spend a bit of time researching your suggestions for first 2, I'm familiar with a few.

Had already particularly liked the looks of Milera and Clarke amongst a few others.

Thanks again.

Coughlan has had a solid season down back both through the TAC Cup and VFL so he is definitely someone I have on my consideration list with the performances he has on the board. On value the 3rd round is about the right position.

 

[Knightmare]

that would be very interesting to see if you can post Chris25 (With knightmares approval of course)

I'm more than happy to approve a re-post of my original power rankings from when I initially created this thread.

It's going to look very little like what my draft looks like today with substantial overrated, underrated and in other cases insufficient knowledge on more prospects than not as is the case going into each new season. But I'd imagine there will be a few eager to get a feel for where I had some of these names coming into the season.

 

[Chris25]

This was the first post for the year, March 28...

-- Top One on List Quality --

1. Callum Mills (NSW - Syd – Academy –MID)

2. Ben Keays (QLD – Bris – Academy –MID/FWD)

-- Top Five on List Quality --

3. Josh Dunkley (VIC – Syd – F/S –MID)

-- Top Ten On List Quality --

4. Luke Partington (SA – MID/FWD)

5. Will Combe (SA – MID/FWD)

6. Jacob Weitering (VIC – KPD/MID)

7. Nicholas O’Kearney (VIC – MID)

8. Darcy Parish (VIC – MID/DEF)

9. Jacob Hopper (NSW - GWS Academy - Mid)

10. Darcy Tucker (VIC – MID/DEF)

11. Harley Balic (VIC – MID/FWD)

12. Callum Ah Chee (WA – FWD/MID)

13. Gregory Clark (WA – MID)

14. Tom Cole – (VIC – MID/DEF)

15. Rhys Mathieson (VIC – MID)

16. Ryan Burton (SA – FWD)

17. Joshua Schache (VIC – KPP)

18. Matthew Nunn (SA – MID)

19. Sam Weideman (VIC – KPF)

20. Blake Hardwick (VIC – Fwd)

-- Projected Best 22 Players --

21. Jake Sushames (TAS – MID/FWD)

22.Jordan Snadden (WA – MID)

23. Sam Skinner (VIC – KPP)

24. Kieran Collins (VIC – KPD)

25. Nate Dennis (QLD – Brisbane Academy - RUCK/KPD)

26. Kade Stewart (WA – MID)

27. Jordan Hayden (TAS - MID)

28. Dylan McDonald (NSW – GWS Academy - MID)

29. James Parsons (VIC – MID/DEF)

30. Jock Cornell (NSW – GWS Academy - FWD)

31. Kieran Agius (SA – FWD)

32. Matthew Allen (SA – KPF)

33. Luke Shepherd (WA – DEF)

34. Aaron Francis (SA – DEF)

35. Brendan Dew (SA – MID/FWD)

36. Zak Wunhym (VIC – MID)

37. Charlie Curnow (VIC – Util)

38. Eric Hipwood (QLD – Brisbane Academy - KPP)

39. Maris Olekalns (SA – MID)

40. Brayden Fiorini (VIC – MID)

-- In with a chance of making the grade --

41. Stephen Tahana (SA – MID/DEF)

42. Liam Jeffs (VIC – UTIL)

43. Dan Houston (VIC – FWD)

44. Matthew Stillman (VIC – DEF/MID)

45. Bryce Batty (VIC – MID)

46. Jack Watson (WA – KPD/DEF)

47. Thomas Bennett (WA – MID)

48. Levi Ridley (WA – MID)

49. Bailey Rogers (WA – MID)

50. Liam Moseley (QLD – Brisbane Academy - MID)

 

[ThePuppetMaster]

Stringer had 2 breaks bones hanging out through the skin.
Doesnt get much worse

Structurally Burton's is worse.

 

[getgaff]

Thanks for the in depth analysis as always Knightmare. Interested in your thoughts at West Coast's first pick.

My pre draft thoughts have centered around 3 players with our first rounder in Tucker, O'Kearney and Clarke. Tucker is probably outside our reach now but projections for O'Kearney and Clarke seem late first to early second round picks or later in the case of O'Kearney which fits well.

 

[Knightmare]

Thanks for the in depth analysis as always Knightmare. Interested in your thoughts at West Coast's first pick.

My pre draft thoughts have centered around 3 players with our first rounder in Tucker, O'Kearney and Clarke. Tucker is probably outside our reach now but projections for O'Kearney and Clarke seem late first to early second round picks or later in the case of O'Kearney which fits well.

Of those three I most like Clarke.

O'Kearney is productive but lacks an x-factor as a mid who isn't super quick, such a great kick or a dominant contested ball winner.

Tucker has pace which he can at times use. And he can had his bigger games but then just as many games where relatively he goes missing.

Clarke on the other hand will most likely be available which with Tucker anyway is unlikely. But with Clarke, he has the pace, endurance combo and finds and impacts games consistently with his run, workrate and scoreboard impact.

As for who I'd be considering for West Coast. I'm a best available at all costs drafter with a view to fill needs during trade week and free agency. Of value late first round, Kieran Collins (key defender), Ryan Clarke (high production running mid) and Clayton Oliver (dominant stoppage specialist) are the three I'd be considering.

 

[Gollo]

Hey Knightmare, really loving how in-depth this whole thread is - really enjoyable to read. Nice work!

I do think I've asked a similar question already, but what are your thoughts on overagers Kade Answerth and Tom Phillips? The numbers being put up by them in the TAC Cup recently and earlier in the year have been astonishingly dominant and well-rounded. This is as well as very solid U18 Champs for both of them. They are both leading the finals charge for Oakleigh, putting up major disposal, mark, tackle, and efficiency numbers as well as hitting the scoreboard. I would love them to get picked up, even if just in the rookie draft, but what's your opinion on their prospects?

 

[philthy05]

When I watched the crows v dogs final the first thing that came to mind is these guys should draft tahana. Tahana and Collins should be the dogs targets in my opinion..

 

[Gmod23]

When I watched the crows v dogs final the first thing that came to mind is these guys should draft tahana. Tahana and Collins should be the dogs targets in my opinion..

Good choices.
Although the defense was mostly out of position due to either a number of poor decisions or poor skill execution. Improve those by even as little as 1% and they probably win the match. So, you could argue that a few better decision makers and more polished disposers of the ball (particularly set shot composure) may be a bigger need.

 

[Gollo]

Good choices.
Although the defense was mostly out of position due to either a number of poor decisions or poor skill execution. Improve those by even as little as 1% and they probably win the match. So, you could argue that a few better decision makers and more polished disposers of the ball (particularly set shot composure) may be a bigger need.

That was part of it, but the main reason for the defence being out of position is that they were playing a very high line, like we always have this year, and just got plain beaten. This is one of the times where you can't look too far into it, just that Adelaide beat our defence with good, fast play.

 

[NumberFive]

That was part of it, but the main reason for the defence being out of position is that they were playing a very high line, like we always have this year, and just got plain beaten. This is one of the times where you can't look too far into it, just that Adelaide beat our defence with good, fast play.

Hello KM. I've been following you and finally decided to register and join in. I've been watching Brayden Fiorini (Knights) since last year and have been impressed by his improvement throughout this year. Just wondering your thoughts and where he might end up?

 

[Knightmare]

Hey Knightmare, really loving how in-depth this whole thread is - really enjoyable to read. Nice work!

I do think I've asked a similar question already, but what are your thoughts on overagers Kade Answerth and Tom Phillips? The numbers being put up by them in the TAC Cup recently and earlier in the year have been astonishingly dominant and well-rounded. This is as well as very solid U18 Champs for both of them. They are both leading the finals charge for Oakleigh, putting up major disposal, mark, tackle, and efficiency numbers as well as hitting the scoreboard. I would love them to get picked up, even if just in the rookie draft, but what's your opinion on their prospects?

Two good Oakleigh and Caulfield boys and both can play. Well identified names on your part to bring up. Both invited to the state combine, so at least a couple of clubs at least want to see them tested. So they both sit in the outside chance but still plausible category.

On their games. Both are incredibly productive through the TAC Cup and have also against VFL and VFL Development League level competition have both held their own. So those are all ticks. So it really just comes down the assessment of whether or not you like their talent and what they offer, with their production in both cases strong.

Answerth generally has a pretty well rounded game. Can win the footy, good at stoppages. Ball use pretty good. Probably lacks a point of difference and as a smaller mid, you really to stand out need something that makes you jump off the page.

Phillips I have enjoyed some of the evasive tricks with his change of direction particularly impressive. Ball use pretty good and like Answerth highly productive though more outside and without an inside game.

Both I'd love to have on my VFL list. And as rookies I'd have on my consider list, with Phillips of the two even more so someone where I think he has a chance at a pro career.

When I watched the crows v dogs final the first thing that came to mind is these guys should draft tahana. Tahana and Collins should be the dogs targets in my opinion..

They'd both be good fits for the Dogs. I can't disagree. They need that next generation quality key defender, and Tahana can give them that something extra more outside or really do whatever is needed of him.

Hello KM. I've been following you and finally decided to register and join in. I've been watching Brayden Fiorini (Knights) since last year and have been impressed by his improvement throughout this year. Just wondering your thoughts and where he might end up?

Fiorini has a shot. Not a certainty to get drafted, with none of those seen as outside the first round this year definites, such is the openness of this years draft.

Fiorini has had a strong season. Highly productive and uses the ball well. Very outside. He has national draft chances but if drafted I'm not anticipating he goes early and more likely would feature in the middle-latter portion of the draft (in other words will be considered from the second round onward).

 

[NumberFive]

Two good Oakleigh and Caulfield boys and both can play. Well identified names on your part to bring up. Both invited to the state combine, so at least a couple of clubs at least want to see them tested. So they both sit in the outside chance but still plausible category.

On their games. Both are incredibly productive through the TAC Cup and have also against VFL and VFL Development League level competition have both held their own. So those are all ticks. So it really just comes down the assessment of whether or not you like their talent and what they offer, with their production in both cases strong.

Answerth generally has a pretty well rounded game. Can win the footy, good at stoppages. Ball use pretty good. Probably lacks a point of difference and as a smaller mid, you really to stand out need something that makes you jump off the page.

Phillips I have enjoyed some of the evasive tricks with his change of direction particularly impressive. Ball use pretty good and like Answerth highly productive though more outside and without an inside game.

Both I'd love to have on my VFL list. And as rookies I'd have on my consider list, with Phillips of the two even more so someone where I think he has a chance at a pro career.



They'd both be good fits for the Dogs. I can't disagree. They need that next generation quality key defender, and Tahana can give them that something extra more outside or really do whatever is needed of him.



Fiorini has a shot. Not a certainty to get drafted, with none of those seen as outside the first round this year definites, such is the openness of this years draft.

Fiorini has had a strong season. Highly productive and uses the ball well. Very outside. He has national draft chances but if drafted I'm not anticipating he goes early and more likely would feature in the middle-latter portion of the draft (in other words will be considered from the second round onward).

Thanks for the quick reply. Yes, this has been a perception of him but much of the time due to coaches instructions which he follows extremely well. He got more midfield time in 2nd half of season and showed ability to tackle and get clearances. However I lso agree that his chances are somewhere in 2nd round and beyond.

 

[Gmod23]

Thanks for the quick reply. Yes, this has been a perception of him but much of the time due to coaches instructions which he follows extremely well. He got more midfield time in 2nd half of season and showed ability to tackle and get clearances. However I lso agree that his chances are somewhere in 2nd round and beyond.

I hope he gets picked mid second round and continues to work on his game. Needs to work on body positioning when he is going for hard balls. Probably needs AFL level coaching to fix that. Still has some fans that hope he succeeds.

 

[Old Campaigner]

Thanks for all the effort you put into this KM.

I've seen people has for a while now it is a shallow draft, has this perception remained as scouts get to know the players a bit more?

Sorry if you've answered this before (I've no doubt you have, I just don't have time to go through 90+ pages looking for the answer), but if the draft is shallow what are the practical implications? Few potential best 22 players past #30?

 

[Wizard17]

Thanks for the quick reply. Yes, this has been a perception of him but much of the time due to coaches instructions which he follows extremely well. He got more midfield time in 2nd half of season and showed ability to tackle and get clearances. However I lso agree that his chances are somewhere in 2nd round and beyond.

He has also been kicking more goals since midway through the year. Reckon he develops into an onballer in time and goes between 30-50.

 

[Knightmare]

Thanks for all the effort you put into this KM.

I've seen people has for a while now it is a shallow draft, has this perception remained as scouts get to know the players a bit more?

Sorry if you've answered this before (I've no doubt you have, I just don't have time to go through 90+ pages looking for the answer), but if the draft is shallow what are the practical implications? Few potential best 22 players past #30?

Still relatively shallow.

20 for some is the cut-off point, for others and myself 30.

Outside the top 30, unless there are some notable sliders and a few clubs going earlier than expected on some others, it's going to be tough to find guys you'd pick thinking will be best 22 player outside that first 30. There will be exceptions, but relatively less than most years.

 

[Aceknuckles]

Hey KM, could you please summarise the strengths and weaknesses of Oliver, Tahana and Clarke? That'd be great. Particularly keen on your thoughts on their disposal, footy nous and athleticism. Cheers

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM, could you please summarise the strengths and weaknesses of Oliver, Tahana and Clarke? That'd be great. Particularly keen on your thoughts on their disposal, footy nous and athleticism. Cheers

For basic summaries.

Oliver:
Strengths: Contested ball winning ability, ability at stoppages, tackling ability, hardness, skills, versatility.
Weaknesses: Running ability, ability to find the outside ball.

Clarke:
Strengths: Pace, endurance, work rate, scoreboard impact, production.
Weaknesses: Footskills (consistency - does damage some times, other times misses targets).

Tahana:
Strengths: Versatility (position/roles), pace/agility, skills.
Weaknesses: Ball winning ability, inside game.

 

[Aceknuckles]

For basic summaries.

Oliver:
Strengths: Contested ball winning ability, ability at stoppages, tackling ability, hardness, skills, versatility.
Weaknesses: Running ability, ability to find the outside ball.

Clarke:
Strengths: Pace, endurance, work rate, scoreboard impact, production.
Weaknesses: Footskills (consistency - does damage some times, other times misses targets).

Tahana:
Strengths: Versatility (position/roles), pace/agility, skills.
Weaknesses: Ball winning ability, inside game.

Great that's perfect thank you. Also how would you describe Olivers skills? What's his kicking/handballing like with time and space vs in traffic & under pressure, and what's his poise/composure like? You also mentioned he was versatile, what positions can he play, and how does he fare as a forward (contested marking and goal kicking mainly). Thanks heaps I really appreciate it

 

[Knightmare]

Great that's perfect thank you. Also how would you describe Olivers skills? What's his kicking/handballing like with time and space vs in traffic & under pressure, and what's his poise/composure like? You also mentioned he was versatile, what positions can he play, and how does he fare as a forward (contested marking and goal kicking mainly). Thanks heaps I really appreciate it

Oliver is someone I would describe as clean and reliable by hand and foot rather than damaging.

Poise/composure pretty standard for a midfielder. Nothing overly freakish without any issues.

As an example to give you a feel for Oliver's game. He'll win much of his ball at stoppages. He'll often get first possession and get meaningful clearances, sometimes getting it off by hand but more often than not going the long kick forward. Mostly it's for gaining territory but he can also hit some forward 50m targets from it. So it's more get it moving than wait to find the best option, and that's to be expected as someone who will look to win first possession and generally will as a result not have the time to assess options.

Oliver has shown he can push forward. As a forward he has smarts and can at times find some space inside 50m for some easy marks. A few weeks back he had a 6 goal game which suggests he can play forward. Also last weekend in the first half he also pushed behind the ball for some intercept marks and showed he can read the flight. So while he'll be used as a full time on-baller, he could in theory play elsewhere if required (not that you'd want to with his value being most obvious at stoppages).

As a mark he isn't a contested marking target, but again more someone who primarily will find the spaces left behnd or the holes in the defence, though he has still taken some contested marks this season and does to an extent have that capability which hopefully in time will be a continued area of growth.

 

[grundog49]

G'day knightmare. I was wondering how this crop compares with similar types of players drafted at the same range in the draft last year. I was wonder what you opinion of these player and who was better in there draft year.

Christian Petracca v Hopper
Angus Brayshaw v Mills
Pat McCartin v Schache
Jake Lever v Weitering
Paul Ahern v Ah Chee
Isaac Heeney v Keays
Peter Wright v McKay (Both Twins)
Caleb Marchbank v Hipwood
Darcy Moore v Weideman
and finally Jordan De Goey v Francis

 

[Johnno22]

Knightmare, any thoughts on Braden Hackett from Swan Districts.

Has been invited to the AFL Draft Camp.