Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2015 Draft Almanac

[Kangaroos4eva]

Going to be an interesting draft and the predictions of a poorer draft in terms of talented and good picks. For North, l have to disagree with op's well thought out posts. We need classy and pace outside mids rather than pure kp and versatile utilities. Maybe kpf, but we need outside class and run and to get the best, we are going to use our early picks for them.

 

[Stylo]

KM, Oliver's really shot up your rankings lately, any particular reason why? What's changed?

 

[Knightmare]

KM, Oliver's really shot up your rankings lately, any particular reason why? What's changed?

First half of the season he wasn't all that great. Didn't play u18 champs.

Second half of the season. He dominated and looked like an AFL standard inside midfielder.

All comes down to performance and rate of improvement.

 

[VandoHawk]

Hey Knightmare. Wanted to ask your opinion of Daniel Rioli, and if he would be available for Hawthorn to select probably somewhere late in the second round.

From what I understand he's had somewhat of an interrupted year through injury, but had some really great games when he was in the park (NT vs TAS) comes to mind where he did some really freaky things and buoyed NT to a respectable lead.

Do you think he could fall into a second/third round pick, or would Hawthorn have to use something earlier to get him?

 

[Knightmare]

Hey Knightmare. Wanted to ask your opinion of Daniel Rioli, and if he would be available for Hawthorn to select probably somewhere late in the second round.

From what I understand he's had somewhat of an interrupted year through injury, but had some really great games when he was in the park (NT vs TAS) comes to mind where he did some really freaky things and buoyed NT to a respectable lead.

Do you think he could fall into a second/third round pick, or would Hawthorn have to use something earlier to get him?

I'd anticipate Rioli will be available for Hawthorn's second round selection. Though after pick 30 clubs will take who they like with no real standouts from that point on. Possible but not certain he is available at Hawthorn's third round selection.

Given that I'd recommend a best available approach. If Rioli is seen as the best available in the 2nd round, take him, if not take whoever is. Same story 3rd round etc.

 

[VaultWanderer]

Will Callum Ah Chee be available at pick 12 in your opinion? How do people rate him

 

[Knightmare]

Will Callum Ah Chee be available at pick 12 in your opinion? How do people rate him

Ah Chee is generally viewed as a mid-late first round selection.

More likely than not I'd guess Ah Chee will be available at 12.

Anywhere from around 10 onward he likely receives consideration.

 

[VaultWanderer]

Ah Chee is generally viewed as a mid-late first round selection.

More likely than not I'd guess Ah Chee will be available at 12.

Anywhere from around 10 onward he likely receives consideration.

Do you rate him?

 

[Knightmare]

Do you rate him?

As per my power rankings on page one not as high as others.

I don't feel Ah Chee's on field performance has been to a first round quality.

Others will disagree and have him firmly in that mid first round range.

 

[LIONS08]

Gday Knightmare, just watched some footage of Clayton Oliver and liked what i saw, plus is a massive lions fan which is a huge bonus for us!! Any chance he slips to our second pick, either pick 17 (from WCE for redden) or an early 20s pick? Cheers

 

[Knightmare]

Gday Knightmare, just watched some footage of Clayton Oliver and liked what i saw, plus is a massive lions fan which is a huge bonus for us!! Any chance he slips to our second pick, either pick 17 (from WCE for redden) or an early 20s pick? Cheers

Oliver's draft range remains unclear at this stage as he improved and played his best footy at the back end of the season.

Oliver may be selected around 20. He may be selected inside the top 10.

Just one to keep in mind if he happens to be available.

 

[blueiris]

If we traded for Bell and Casboult could you see Carlton drafting Schache at pick 1? If so who do you see Brisbane taking at 2 because I don't think we would take Wietering after Pickering screwing us over all year with Aish

 

[Knightmare]

If we traded for Bell and Casboult could you see Carlton drafting Schache at pick 1? If so who do you see Brisbane taking at 2 because I don't think we would take Wietering after Pickering screwing us over all year with Aish

I see no point of any swap involving picks one and two with Carlton rumoured to want Weitering, and Brisbane Schache.

Carlton probably retain Casboult given Henderson is leaving. If Brisbane what a Bell and Casboult package Carlton will be wanting something decent with Bell probably Carlton's second best player this year and Casboult their best key forward.

Brisbane's best hope for both would be a package involving several of the young players added over the past few drafts with Carlton all about getting younger and gaining picks (with the latter probably not something Brisbane can realistically offer with all the talent in the clubs academy this year).

 

[InPhilWeTrust]

Hey KM, if crows get Geelong 9 and keep 13.. Would Weideman and tucker be available?

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM, if crows get Geelong 9 and keep 13.. Would Weideman and tucker be available?

Both are chances but neither are certainties to be available.

 

[Magpiesweloveu]

As Pies will have no picks until mid 20's, what few mid to tall players could be line to land at Collingwood? One of the McKay boys?

 

[Gollo]

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-10-10/gresham-steals-the-show-at-draft-combines-skills-testing

Summary of the skills tests last night at the Combine. Gresham starring all-round. MacPherson impressing with his disposal. Oliver and O'Kearney aced the goal kicking as well, a bit of a surprise. O'Kearney also surprising more with his general kicking efficiency, not a trait he's known for. Collins wins clean hands test and Mitch Hibberd wins kicking test.

 

[keen spectator]

After looking at highlights and by the way he is testing at the combine you would think Tasmania's Mitch Hibberd must be as good as / has as much potential as any midfielder in this year's draft. Appears to be a complete footballer.

 

[Knightmare]

As Pies will have no picks until mid 20's, what few mid to tall players could be line to land at Collingwood? One of the McKay boys?

Harry McKay probably isn't available in the 20s. Ben may be though again no guarantees. Collingwood may look at Callum Moore as an athletic tall forward through the second round though I've been continually underwhelmed by his play. Sam Skinner is another popular tall who could feature in the 20s though a key defender.

With talls and more specifically key forwards. Best unless you have certainly a top 20 pick to forward about getting a key forward. It's a rare day after pick 20 you can get a worthwhile key forward, let alone in a weak and shallow draft. Key defenders though are a different story and can be had later.

This is my personal hope, but I'd hope Collingwood go more for skilled or running types. Ryan Clarke and Luke Partington. Mitch Hibberd may be available and as a taller outside type would also be a suitable get.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-10-10/gresham-steals-the-show-at-draft-combines-skills-testing

Summary of the skills tests last night at the Combine. Gresham starring all-round. MacPherson impressing with his disposal. Oliver and O'Kearney aced the goal kicking as well, a bit of a surprise. O'Kearney also surprising more with his general kicking efficiency, not a trait he's known for. Collins wins clean hands test and Mitch Hibberd wins kicking test.

I've never been an advocate of the skill tests at the combine. The tests I don't feel represent the skills under in-game pressure. It's better just to measure in game during the season under each situation what action they're taking and whether they have successfully executed that skill.
So I don't put any stock into it. But AFL clubs may.

After looking at highlights and by the way he is testing at the combine you would think Tasmania's Mitch Hibberd must be as good as / has as much potential as any midfielder in this year's draft. Appears to be a complete footballer.

Hibberd has ability. And while more outside he isn't allergic to winning the contested footy which is a tick. Injuries have been the major issue and why he wasn't selected last year, but he has the chance to become one of the better players from this draft if he has a good run with injury and continues his improvement.

 

[keen spectator]

Harry McKay probably isn't available in the 20s. Ben may be though again no guarantees. Collingwood may look at Callum Moore as an athletic tall forward through the second round though I've been continually underwhelmed by his play. Sam Skinner is another popular tall who could feature in the 20s though a key defender.

With talls and more specifically key forwards. Best unless you have certainly a top 20 pick to forward about getting a key forward. It's a rare day after pick 20 you can get a worthwhile key forward, let alone in a weak and shallow draft. Key defenders though are a different story and can be had later.

This is my personal hope, but I'd hope Collingwood go more for skilled or running types. Ryan Clarke and Luke Partington. Mitch Hibberd may be available and as a taller outside type would also be a suitable get.



I've never been an advocate of the skill tests at the combine. The tests I don't feel represent the skills under in-game pressure. It's better just to measure in game during the season under each situation what action they're taking and whether they have successfully executed that skill.
So I don't put any stock into it. But AFL clubs may.



Hibberd has ability. And while more outside he isn't allergic to winning the contested footy which is a tick. Injuries have been the major issue and why he wasn't selected last year, but he has the chance to become one of the better players from this draft if he has a good run with injury and continues his improvement.

Not so sure he is an outside type, stats show he wins a fair bit of contested ball and has more than his share of tackles, also noticed a big pack mark on the MCG last week, believe he had to play a bit outside for Tasmania so other players like Lovell could show their stuff.

 

[Knightmare]

Not so sure he is an outside type, stats show he wins a fair bit of contested ball, also noticed a big pack mark on the MCG last week, believe he may have to play a bit outside for Tasmania to give guys like Lovell a chance to show their stuff.

Hibberd I categorise as an outside utility.

Probably best suited as a back flanker/wingman.

But he does have a good uncontested/contested ball balance. You're right there.

I'm assuming you're going by u18 champs stats? If so keep in mind lots of players will have a high contested ball winning % due to how poor the majority are at using the ball.

I'd be interested to see what Hibberd can offer inside. Not something I've seen as far as I can recall. But good height/size. Skilled, not allergic to winning the contested ball. Can push fwd/back. So that's not something I'd rule out, even though it's not what I'm projecting either.

 

[Crippa16]

Hey KM
If Carlton get pick 12 for yarran can you see us selecting weideman at that pick ?

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM
If Carlton get pick 12 for yarran can you see us selecting weideman at that pick ?

Weideman has to be available first which is no guarantee. There is some talk of late he features inside the top 10.

Weideman may be available, but more likely Harry McKay as a tall would be that tall forward more likely to be available. So you'd have to be prepared for that outcome if that trade is made.

 

[Gollo]

I've never been an advocate of the skill tests at the combine. The tests I don't feel represent the skills under in-game pressure. It's better just to measure in game during the season under each situation what action they're taking and whether they have successfully executed that skill.
So I don't put any stock into it. But AFL clubs may.

I feel the skills tests set the decent level ball disposers from the ones with real efficiency lacking. I get what your saying with the kick and handball tests, as they are done under no pressure other than that put on players by themselves, but I don't mind the goal kicking test as one that is closer to in-game pressure, just because most of the shots are set-shots or snaps.

 

[Knightmare]

I feel the skills tests set the decent level ball disposers from the ones with real efficiency lacking. I get what your saying with the kick and handball tests, as they are done under no pressure other than that put on players by themselves, but I don't mind the goal kicking test as one that is closer to in-game pressure, just because most of the shots are set-shots or snaps.

I've mostly formed this opinion on the back of seeing the results over the years and looking at the lists and thinking intuitively that many of them are entirely wrong based on what we've seen of them during the season.

With the goalkicking, doing it under the closed roof even is relevant to only the one AFL venue. So even that I'm not interested in hearing about. I'd much rather just looking at their conversion over the course of the season and have some measurements of where they kicked it from and whether they were set shots, from general play, snaps etc. And go off that.

But again different clubs will have different views on this and I concede I am likely in the more extreme percentile of just not caring about any of the skills tests with little care towards the athletic testing results.

Height/weight/wingspan/handspan more so are to me interesting and can more definitely tell you things - such as big hands and long arms may mean they have better chances to be strong marks, or longer arms as kpps or ruckmen may mean an added advantage beyond just height. Then otherwise the interviews and character profiling element would be what I'd find more interesting and what may sway my opinion. Though even then clubs will have spoken to many if not most of them during the year anyway so even that will only have so much value.