Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2016 Draft Almanac

[SaintsSeptember]

I stand by my comments on smalls generally having lower ceilings.

Generally at 18 they're among the most advanced but 2-3 years down the track at AFL level they tend to get past by, by those taller types who are still growing into their bodies.

With the smalls (sub 180cm types) my view is take them on who they are today. If they are AFL standard as they are now, take them. If not, pass.

Size may limit McGrath's upside somewhat. But given how advanced his game is and given his improvement over the course of the season (which to me suggests further improvement will come - as a variable that leaves some wiggle room within this rule). I think McGrath is a worthwhile bet with any of those top three picks, wherever he happens to land.

I probably don't have McGrath all things said and done being the best in the draft. Maybe a Setterfield, McCluggage or someone else may be. Drew if he gets midfield time? Who knows. McGrath looks exceptional in any case and a worthwhile top selection with those top overall choices rarely the best player in the draft anyway.



Small is ambiguous. I tend to class smalls as sub 180cm. Medium types 180+ of non key position types. And talls 192+ and must be of key position

I promise not to mention Leigh Montagna , who may have taken a long time before peaking in around 2010

 

[Vdubs]

Jayden Pitt found out about his cardiomyopathy (HOCM)a few years into his career.
http://www.fremantlefc.com.au/news/2014-04-09/life-after-afl-for-jayden-pitt
There has been talk about whether pre-draft (rather than post-draft) screening is the right thing to do for both clubs and athlete.

Given that HOCM can be lethal.I would have thought pre-draft screen was a no-brainer for all parties concerned.

 

[Clems Knee]

Given that HOCM can be lethal.I would have thought pre-draft screen was a no-brainer for all parties concerned.

Is the pre draft screen being taken for the player, or for the club? If it was for the player only, it would be taken compulsorily after the draft. Villis has not just found out about a serious health condition; he has lost an income.

 

[Vdubs]

Is the pre draft screen being taken for the player, or for the club? If it was for the player only, it would be taken compulsorily after the draft. Villis has not just found out about a serious health condition; he has lost an income.

Lost an income he did not yet have.
He has opportunities to derive income from less risky sources.
It is interesting has not been detected previously.
Still, he is now aware and can make adjustments, plans etc

 

[JDavey]

I stand by my comments on smalls generally having lower ceilings.

Generally at 18 they're among the most advanced but 2-3 years down the track at AFL level they tend to get past by, by those taller types who are still growing into their bodies.

I promise not to mention Leigh Montagna , who may have taken a long time before peaking in around 2010

Come on man - there are all ways exceptions to the rule, you didn't need to point it out. FYI - Old article backing up what Knightmare is saying:

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/size-matters-at-afl-level/story-e6frf9jf-1226650225771

 

[CRIPPA9]

G'day KM, heard anything on Carlton's pick 25, 48 and 60's? Are they interested in certain player/player types?

I'd personally be over the moon if SPP/Venables slid to 25. If not I'd settle for Drew/Mutch/Clarke.

For 48, I'd be keen on Atley/Fisher/Sharanberg/Poholke/Graham, whilst also interested in Lebois, Morrison, Parfitt, Hampton, Narkle, Romensky and Olango with our later picks.

Your thoughts?
Thanks mate.

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

Dodoro is an odd fellow.

Plus, the idea is that it puts them in a challenging, unfamiliar situation and the recruiters get to observe them under pressure.

But mostly because Dodoro is an odd fellow.

Oddoro then?

 

[GHS33]

KM, your thoughts on the draft chances of the following SA lads?:

- Tye Bedford
- Mitch Hinge
- Conor Noonan
- Jack Kluske
- Lachlan Cameron

 

[bmaurizio]

Hi KM, word around the traps is that SOS is seriously considering Jack Scrimshaw at pick 5 , a little worried frankly would it be a reach? Some say he may be a 50/50 chance to make it in the big time.
I would greatly appreciate your views.
Thanks

 

[Knightmare]

Im asking for your personal rankings but cheers! Could you do the same for Medium Forwards and Small Forwards

Gen fwd top 10 - straight from my top 30 power rankings
1. McCluggage - top 3
2. Taranto - top 4
3. Ainsworth - top 4
4. Hayward - 1st-2nd round
5. Powell-Pepper 1st-2nd round
6. S.Bolton 1st-2nd round
7. Venables 1st-2nd round
8. Florent 1st round
9. Tiziani late/rookie
10. Simpkin 1st round

KM, how valid are the comparisons between Will Setterfield and Bontempelli?

And who is your pick to be the best player of this draft?

Not as athletic but there is some Bontempelli to him. Perhaps more of a Pendlebury feel. Wins it in the contest and does all the hard stuff, tackling is terrific but it's the composure and skill through the midfield that makes him so special.

McCluggage is top of my November power rankings so he is the obligatory choice.

If I had to pick someone who is most likely to be the best in the draft. I'd probably lean towards Setterfield. But McCluggage and McGrath feel like safer bets and relatively more certain to fulfill their respective upsides with Setterfield needing more time, being less extremely advanced by comparison and having had his injury issues.

 

[Knightmare]

I promise not to mention Leigh Montagna , who may have taken a long time before peaking in around 2010

Montagna, B.Harvey. There are some exceptions.

My comments are not about the exceptions but for the trend and what we most commonly see.

In junior competitions nationally generally a large portion of the best players are sub 180cm.

You don't see that at AFL level with so many failing to progress further.

It's something by consensus I'd imagine junior talent ID people would agree on just looking at the various competitions nationally.

G'day KM, heard anything on Carlton's pick 25, 48 and 60's? Are they interested in certain player/player types?

I'd personally be over the moon if SPP/Venables slid to 25. If not I'd settle for Drew/Mutch/Clarke.

For 48, I'd be keen on Atley/Fisher/Sharanberg/Poholke/Graham, whilst also interested in Lebois, Morrison, Parfitt, Hampton, Narkle, Romensky and Olango with our later picks.

Your thoughts?
Thanks mate.

No particularly strong rumours (that I've heard) for Carlton after that first selection - regarding type or specific names.

Atley/Fisher/Scharenberg/Poholke/Graham - some competition of will be available at 48. At least one and up to three of those could be available. All would represent solid value around that point.

The latter group could be there in the 70s. Morrison is the more likely of those others to go before the 60s, but again they're realistic types and most of that group should be available I'd predict.
Some of those I rate more highly than others. Olango for example while he has his fans, I'm not huge on - just not finding the ball around the ground or having any impact other than at the centre bounce simply outleaping guys. He needs more tricks.

KM, your thoughts on the draft chances of the following SA lads?:

- Tye Bedford
- Mitch Hinge
- Conor Noonan
- Jack Kluske
- Lachlan Cameron

Hinge should be drafted.

Bedford and Noonan have been spoken about a bit and could be considered late/rookie. Cameron a lesser chance, though he is someone I've liked the game of and feel is worth a rookie spot.

Kluske I don't have any knowledge of. Not a state or national combine invite so can't see him being in the mix.

Hi KM, word around the traps is that SOS is seriously considering Jack Scrimshaw at pick 5 , a little worried frankly would it be a reach? Some say he may be a 50/50 chance to make it in the big time.
I would greatly appreciate your views.
Thanks

For me Scrimshaw is a reach. I'm not sure of his best position. Is he a midfielder? I'm not sure of his contested ball winning. Down back can he make it? There are questions about capacity to shutdown an opponent. Up forward I'm not sure what he does that others don't.

Overall I can't endorse Scrimshaw going that early, but if Carlton don't take him, he won't be going long after with interest high given his height and mix of attributes with his evasiveness and long, damaging kick.

 

[Knightmare]

Final power rankings of the year - November edition.

Several unique and new names included and several big names dropping out of my top 30: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/18098861/knightmare-afl-draft-power-rankings-november

 

[adammania9]

Hi KM, what is your ideal phantom for the Magpies, factoring in the realistic matchings of Brown and Daicos, because you don't seem to be overly keen on them (neither am I for that matter - I like Daicos but Brown seems a bit meh, I'd prefer Drew or Graham at that pick)

 

[paran]

At Brodie's height I haven't felt comfortable with any comparison to date. Griffen? (He plays a much more contested style than Griffen) Jack Crisp? (He's looks like he'll be better than Crisp). He's a taller type with explosion at stoppages. He has some Bontempelli but I don't feel comfortable with that comparison with Brodie not nearly on that level. Jack Redden maybe?

Patty Cripps? As juniors seems quite apt.

 

[Kramer1]

Final power rankings of the year - November edition.

Several unique and new names included and several big names dropping out of my top 30: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/18098861/knightmare-afl-draft-power-rankings-november

Genuine query...how do power rankings change long after the last ball has been kicked in anger?

 

[Thewlis Dish]

Final power rankings of the year - November edition.

Several unique and new names included and several big names dropping out of my top 30: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/18098861/knightmare-afl-draft-power-rankings-november

I notice you have Brodie's draft position as top 10 when there were murmurs he could slide - do you think Gold Coast. Sydney or Freo will take him?

 

[Knightmare]

Hi KM, what is your ideal phantom for the Magpies, factoring in the realistic matchings of Brown and Daicos, because you don't seem to be overly keen on them (neither am I for that matter - I like Daicos but Brown seems a bit meh, I'd prefer Drew or Graham at that pick)

Drew
Brown
Daicos
Tiziani
Ronke
--Rookie draft--
Romensky
B.Eddy
L.Walker

Would be the ideal draft if Collingwood as is expected take Brown and Daicos. Upgrade up forward + through the midfield with Eddy for immediacy of performance the ideal key forward addition.

Patty Cripps? As juniors seems quite apt.

Cripps is a bigger body and is a better pro than I'm anticipating Brodie to be.

Cripps is a genuine star and already one of the better mids in the game.

Genuine query...how do power rankings change long after the last ball has been kicked in anger?

Games can always be reviewed if you have tape of them.

I can't speak for others, but reviewing that and my notes is where may changes came.

I also in the end decided to back myself in more in my talent evaluations, straying much further away from the mainstream even by comparison to last months update.

 

[Knightmare]

I notice you have Brodie's draft position as top 10 when there were murmurs he could slide - do you think Gold Coast. Sydney or Freo will take him?

My power rankings is strictly where I rate players and has no relationship with where players will feature on draft day.

My phantom draft is where I list my prediction on where players will go (albeit my next update will look very different): http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/18053132/knightmare-updated-2016-afl-phantom-draft

Brodie I predict will go somewhere around North's 1st round selection.

 

[year of the cat]

My power rankings is strictly where I rate players and has no relationship with where players will feature on draft day.

My phantom draft is where I list my prediction on where players will go (albeit my next update will look very different): http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/18053132/knightmare-updated-2016-afl-phantom-draft

Brodie I predict will go somewhere around North's 1st round selection.

When's the final update due KM?

 

[Knightmare]

When's the final update due KM?

My final phantom draft will be up either late Thursday or Friday morning.

 

[Thewlis Dish]

My power rankings is strictly where I rate players and has no relationship with where players will feature on draft day.

There's a specific heading under every player which says "projected draft range" - ie you have Brodie and Drew ranked next to each other, but Brodie's is "top ten" and Drew's is "2nd to 3rd round". I am assuming this is just a rough estimate?

 

[Bishop]

Genuine query...how do power rankings change long after the last ball has been kicked in anger?

----

In terms of interstate play, unless it's on youtube, I don't have any particular special access.

If someone approaches me and says "this here is your own account to such and such online games database" it would be a different story regarding watching WAFL games. ESPN have no particular special access to game tapes to offer me.

So I just make do with what I have which is all there is to do..

Frankly all junior games and state league games should just be free for all on youtube and uploaded weekly. Would be great exposure for all the competitions nationally and only enhance interest in the game more broadly.

Late October

Drew

Games can always be reviewed if you have tape of them.

I can't speak for others, but reviewing that and my notes is where may changes came.

I also in the end decided to back myself in more in my talent evaluations, straying much further away from the mainstream even by comparison to last months update.

KM I'm intrigued. What has changed so much that blokes have moved around in your rankings in the last month?

Have you managed to get access to the "such and such online games database" because I'm surprised to see Lachie Walker jump from nowhere in your rankings when I'm not sure he's even picked up a football in November.

 

[Knightmare]

There's a specific heading under every player which says "projected draft range" - ie you have Brodie and Drew ranked next to each other, but Brodie's is "top ten" and Drew's is "2nd to 3rd round". I am assuming this is just a rough estimate?

Brodie could be changed to top 15 for greater accuracy.

The draft range estimates are there to give readers a general view for where these guys may feature, if they indeed feature on draft day.

----

Late October

KM I'm intrigued. What has changed so much that blokes have moved around in your rankings in the last month?

Have you managed to get access to the "such and such online games database" because I'm surprised to see Lachie Walker jump from nowhere in your rankings when I'm not sure he's even picked up a football in November.

U18 champs, TAC Cup GF, SANFL U18 finals, end of season exhibition match all are available on youtube.

Walker has been on the fringe of my 30 for a while and with dropping a few down, Walker I have shifted up (along with Logue). My suggestion is not that Walker will get drafted but rather he is someone I would draft with confidence. I love his all-around game. Nice height. Wins it inside. Plays outside comfortably. Skills sound. Could slot onto a flank easily.

If the public were aware of my top 40 from throughout the year the moving up of Walker would not be surprising. He has been around 31/32/33 on my list for several months now.

 

[mattyc75]

Final power rankings of the year - November edition.

Several unique and new names included and several big names dropping out of my top 30: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/18098861/knightmare-afl-draft-power-rankings-november

I like those power rankings,Powell pepper won't be a reach for the eagles

Sent from my E6653 using Tapatalk

 

[Cripps4Life]

Knightmare just a question where would of harry McKay gone in this draft as he only just snuck in bye age. Have herd that some recruiters would have him right at the top