Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2016 Draft Almanac

[Heaps of fun]

Don't be perturbed. IMO Florent will prove to be a superior player to both Brodie and Scrimshaw.

Played almost all of 2016 with a terminally ill father to worry about. Once the pressure was relieved he was sensational.

Likely to be the best steal 3 years down the track.

Enter: North Melbourne. Very happy where we have our pick in this draft.

 

[PieWithHorse]

Hi knightmare, do you have Shai Bolton sliding that far due, in part, to go home factor?

 

[Knightmare]

Can't see us taking Graham with Fagan in charge, disposal skills would be a massive priority. Players like C Cox and Ridley would come into contention with picks 21 or 22.

All three are among those being spoken about as potential picks for Brisbane in that range. Venables also if there and Luke Ryan are both fancies by Brisbane.

Hey KM,
With the rise of the Dogs on the back of numerous inside midfielders, can you see more being taken earlier in this draft?
Who are your top 10 contested ball winners?
If I was Dodoro, I would take Setterfield at 1 and be happy when GWS don't match. As good as McGrath is, there is less ceiling than Setterfield.

I can't see the Dogs having a good contested ball winning crew impacting the selections of other clubs at all.

Clubs if they go the contested ball route would do so, more so based on looking back at previous drafts and understanding the success rates.

Top 10 contested ball winners this year (for a hastily put together list to give a rough feel):
1. Willem Drew
2. Dylan Clarke
3. Brad Scheer
4. Jack Graham
5. Ben Ronke
6. Brodie Romensky
7. Will Brodie
8. Will Setterfield
9. Tim Taranto
10. Sam Powell-Pepper

Setterfield I'd agree has the highest ceiling this year.

Thanks KM. So sounds like McGrath is more your higher floor, lower ceiling type from this draft where what you see now is more closely going to resemble what you'll get.

If you were to take a stab at it, which 10 players would you see as having the highest probability of being the best or highest ceiling in this draft? Any high risk high reward types you see in later rounds who could potentially one day be considered amongst the best in this draft?

I wouldn't say low ceiling with McGrath. I think he'll be very good from the get go and develop by position into one of the better players. He just probably isn't best 1-2 in the draft great. But the most solid bet to be top 10 in draft standard player.

Love your work KM. I really cannot (well i guess more hopeful that we wont ) take English though... especially there.... but you are the guru. We shall see.

Is there any reason you believe we will now take him at 14?

English is no lock. He might not be there. Or Port may let him slip depending on who else is available. He is just one in the mix. Always plenty of mystery in the draft once you get into the teens. Several players linked to Port with those picks but no complete certainties.

I'm just seeing English as a logical list fit and the type of guy Port might go for given his accumulation, skill and endurance superiorities working from a gameplan perspective.

W

Would be absolutely ecstatic with that result for the Blues.
SPS, C.Cox, Fisher, Poholke, Lebois and McCarthy is an excellent mix. Good spread of quality users, pace and inside grunt. Love it.

Not sure we use our last pick there- we may decide to keep a primary list spot available to upgrade someone later.

Several clubs will pass on some of their late picks depending on what is decided - whether clubs like particular players or want to maintain some list flexibility so that well performed rookies can be upgraded whenever.

Would be pretty happy with Begley at our second pick. How realistic is this?

Begley has a potentially wide range. He could go in the second round or he could slip into the later rounds of the draft.

He is hard to predict because he is a type with a heavier build who will need to keep working on his running. He is a very niche selection who will appeal to some clubs given how damaging he can be (particularly up forward) and be someone other clubs pass over.

KM, with all due respect i'd be filthy if the draft panned out that way for Essendon.

No way is Graham a top 20 pick ahead of the likes of Venables/SPP/Battle. Picking both Graham and Sharenberg would not make sense.

It depends on who Essendon rate.

Graham and Scharenberg are both well performed mids who have years of good football behind them.

After the first round it's guesswork. Particularly for those clubs (Essendon one of them this year) who are remaining tight-lipped on who they like.

Might be completely different on draft day to what I have.

Completing phantom drafts if you look through any from over the years. After that first 10 or so picks, it's a lottery and you're always going to get more wrong than right.

Hi knightmare, do you have Shai Bolton sliding that far due, in part, to go home factor?

He is an inconsistent talent. Has his big games. Other games where his ball use/composure/impact can be not as much there.

Very much someone who plays at 100 miles per hour and needs to learn that it's ok to slow down sometimes.

Go home factor was not considered in my rating of Bolton in either my phantom draft or power rankings.

In my phantom draft I've heard several different people outside the media linking Bolton to Collingwood which at 28 is a strong enough link to suggest if there Collingwood will be strongly considering. A few clubs in the 20s may look at him before Collingwood, but there is no club clearly taking him before the Pies selection with other teams more strongly linked to others.

 

[JD Tomahawk]

Twomey mentioned the Cats could look at Zach Guthrie (cams brother) and Jackson Sketcher (the recruit) as late selections. I haven't heard this until now. I'd be happy with that although I'd hope Sketcher was picked up somewhere by another club as he probably won't get a look in with us.

 

[Knightmare]

Twomey mentioned the Cats could look at Zach Guthrie (cams brother) and Jackson Sketcher (the recruit) as late selections. I haven't heard this until now. I'd be happy with that although I'd hope Sketcher was picked up somewhere by another club as he probably won't get a look in with us.

Plausible late choices for Geelong but probably more rookies in both cases.

Demand not high for either that I'm aware of.

 

[Prochard123]

Hey Knightmare how would you rate the Key defenders and key forwards in this draft in order?

E.g.
1. Logue
2. ...

 

[x_les_x]

Hey KM. witherden, marshall and venables didn't test at the combine but apparently some clubs had a mini medical with them of some sort do you have those results or do they have any past athletic results that could serve as a comparative baseline?

Also way left field but do you know if aidyn Johnson from last year participated in the sprint tests last year; repeat,20m ?

 

[JD Tomahawk]

Plausible late choices for Geelong but probably more rookies in both cases.

Demand not high for either that I'm aware of.

Thanks for that mate and cheers for all your efforts leading up to the big dance tomorrow! I dunno what ESPN pay you but it's not enough!

 

[Knightmare]

Hey Knightmare how would you rate the Key defenders and key forwards in this draft in order?

E.g.
1. Logue
2. ...

Order that they'll be taken?

KPD:
1. Logue
2. Cox
3. Maibaum

KPF:
1. Marshall
2. Battle
3. Kerr

Himmelberg would be at 3 as either a KPD/KPF in projected draft order.

After this top 7 it's speculative with others uncertain to be taken in national draft.

Hey KM. witherden, marshall and venables didn't test at the combine but apparently some clubs had a mini medical with them of some sort do you have those results or do they have any past athletic results that could serve as a comparative baseline?

Also way left field but do you know if aidyn Johnson from last year participated in the sprint tests last year; repeat,20m ?

Don't have any access to draft combine or past athletic testing result of this years draft group other than the top 10 finishes in each event.

In saying that I'm never fussed by the testing. Players train for the various tests in preperation for the combine and it's rarely indicative of what they demonstrate out on the field.

Witherden I can say lacks athleticism. Not quick and not an endurance athlete and with a year out injured would not be looking any better in either category.

Marshall is fine athletically in game. Very mobile/agile. Endurance and 20m times would be interesting to give indications of capabilities in both areas but neither seem exceptional.

Venables has very good acceleration. He has genuine breakaway speed. His endurance probably needs work given the injuries/limited games and being more a forward rather than a midfielder for now. But athletically very promising for mine.

Aidyn Johnson's 20m time I'm not familiar with from last year. He was outstanding in the agility though with a top 5 finish (8.15sec). So that's the outstanding time with Johnson worth noting.

 

[WileyWiggins]

Would you expect any of Kerr, Marshall or Battle to be getting a game next year?

 

[Lockhart Road]

English is no lock. He might not be there. Or Port may let him slip depending on who else is available. He is just one in the mix. Always plenty of mystery in the draft once you get into the teens. Several players linked to Port with those picks but no complete certainties.

I'm just seeing English as a logical list fit and the type of guy Port might go for given his accumulation, skill and endurance superiorities working from a gameplan perspective.
.

In plain English you made a guess.

 

[MileHigh]

KM, final mail. How do you expect the top 20 to go down?

 

[HedgeFund]

KM, final mail. How do you expect the top 20 to go down?

Mate, click on the link to post #2779 please. The whole draft as KM sees it is there for your reading pleasure.

It's not that hard.

 

[Hawker98]

Luke bunker to Hawthorn?


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Bicks]

Order that they'll be taken?

KPD:
1. Logue
2. Cox
3. Maibaum

KPF:
1. Marshall
2. Battle
3. Kerr

Himmelberg would be at 3 as either a KPD/KPF in projected draft order.

After this top 7 it's speculative with others uncertain to be taken in national draft.



.

I like Zach Sproule a lot, athletic, nice kick, think with the right development [Adelaide] he'll be a very good KPP......Your not keen on him??

 

[Alite]

Hi Knightmare, do you have a power rating list somewhere that goes past 30?

 

[RedBulls]

Do you expect to total number of kids picked up to be greater this year given the depth or it'll still be about the same?

 

[Alite]

Knightmare, sorry if this has already been brought up in previous threads but... I see your power rating for Willem Drew is 9 and yet he doesn't go in your Phantom Draft until 42. Is this correct?

 

[hicksyshawks]

KM who do you think the hawks will pick up tonight?

 

[Knightmare]

Would you expect any of Kerr, Marshall or Battle to be getting a game next year?

No, no and no.

Battle the more advanced of the trio by a long shot. But wouldn't personally be comfortable playing any of the three, unless we're talking about a bottom 2 side with no finals prospects that is all about development and injecting games into players, would I expect to see any of them feature in 2017.

In plain English you made a guess.

Correct.

We're all guessing after the top 10.

They're just educated guesses. Many of the other media people do it based on what they hear from clubs.

My educated guesses relate to some extent to rumours I hear but also incorporate a lot of common sense and looking at previous drafting trends of clubs eg. West Coast tend to pick players who have had strong junior careers with performances of high quality as bottom agers or earlier. Brisbane and Gold Coast take an unusually high proportion of talent from Tasmania (not that it is relevant this year). Etc.

KM, final mail. How do you expect the top 20 to go down?

Will reveal over Twitter over the next perhaps hour who my final, final 20 will be.

It mostly will likely stay the same but I have Isaac Cumming as my late riser. Adelaide are red hot on him. Sydney may also consider depending on their view of the available options.

Luke bunker to Hawthorn?

On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

Wouldn't discount it.

Very solid contested ball winner. Worth a late/rookie pick and is one in that range I'd advocate based on performance.

I like Zach Sproule a lot, athletic, nice kick, think with the right development [Adelaide] he'll be a very good KPP......Your not keen on him??

There are bits I like and bits I don't. You've covered the bits I like.

The bits I don't are his lack of competitiveness and unwillingness to contest physically and put his head over the ball.

Adelaide and West Coast for me have been historically the most outstanding developers of key position talent. Adelaide might be one of the teams with a shot to make something of him.

If I was picking, while he likely goes in the national draft somewhere, I would only consider Sproule as a rookie given my concerns, with my outlook being that I see it being a challenge for him to find a position he excels in.

Hi Knightmare, do you have a power rating list somewhere that goes past 30?

Might go up to 40, or maybe 50 tonight if I find the time pre-draft on Twitter and move it into p1 of this thread when I get the chance.

Give me an hour or so and I'll get around to it.

Do you expect to total number of kids picked up to be greater this year given the depth or it'll still be about the same?

Given the depth this year I think there will be more picks than usual from numerous clubs. You can see it based on the number of list changes many clubs have made.

Knightmare, sorry if this has already been brought up in previous threads but... I see your power rating for Willem Drew is 9 and yet he doesn't go in your Phantom Draft until 42. Is this correct?

Correct.

Drew could go higher with some talk that Carlton may consider him at pick 27. There are some other teams that may also consider him in the 30s.

But my rating of Drew is substantially higher than what his draft position will be tonight.

And that should happen with everyone's evaluation of talent different.

KM who do you think the hawks will pick up tonight?

Could be anyone given how late Hawthorn enter the draft.

Matt Guelfi and Liam Ryan were two leftovers of sorts I had Hawthorn taking late.

Tom Williamson and Juhdan Dundon were a couple of others I consider for those choices.

At the end of the day it's lottery stuff. Who will be there? Who would Hawthorn rate?

Anyone's guess and not something I have mail on.

 

[Bicks]

KM who do you think the hawks will pick up tonight?

Tristan Tweedie

 

[Knightmare]

For those after my power rankings extended out to 40 here they are:

31. Tim English 32. Todd Marshall 33. Brennan Cox 34. Isaac Cumming 35. Brett Eddy 36. Joshua Begley 37. Jordan Gallucci 38. Jonty Scharenberg 39. Jack Graham 40. Jye Bolton

 

[Lockhart Road]

For those after my power rankings extended out to 40 here they are:

31. Tim English 32. Todd Marshall 33. Brennan Cox 34. Isaac Cumming 35. Brett Eddy 36. Joshua Begley 37. Jordan Gallucci 38. Jonty Scharenberg 39. Jack Graham 40. Jye Bolton

English at 31.
Eddy at 36.
Noted.

 

[Testekill]

Who do you see the Bulldogs taking?

 

[Glenny83]

So Sydney apprently interviewed Will BRODIE again this morning. He might be firming for them if he slides to their pick.