Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2016 Draft Almanac

[Knightmare]

What exactly would make SPS slide? Is it just the top end talent available or does his last 12 months playing mainly Colts come into recruiters' calculations?

I say that with an obvious vested interest as he would be the perfect fit for North.

Also, bit of a silly question, but is he naturally left or right-footed? I feel like it's his left but he has such a natural action on both sides of the body.

Playing just colts is part of it. His numbers are more good than great. Less impact than expected/compared to previously all are contributing factors.

SPS is a right footer naturally but very good on both sides.

Do you think there is a genuine chance Petrevski-Seton could be there at North's pick 11? Exactly the player we need, but he's had a pretty inconsistent year and his low production might put clubs in the top 10 off.

Not out of the question, so he would be someone North would want on their draft board just in case, but probably gone.

 

[Dave06]

KM, love your work. Any chance Battle or Berry make it to the Pies at 28? If not who would be other KPP options around that mark?

 

[Knightmare]

KM, love your work. Any chance Battle or Berry make it to the Pies at 28? If not who would be other KPP options around that mark?

Berry probably goes top 20.

KPPs aren't great this year. The key forwards probably are gone by then. May be some key defenders there though depending on which way Collingwood go.

 

[gothedons]

Hi KM,

My ideal draft outcome would be:

5:Brodie
25:SPP
48: Drew/Clarke/Graham
63:Romensky/Ronke
66:Fisher
RD: Kerbatieh
PSD: Richards

Do you think this is realistic/wise? Thanks mate.

If both Drew lasts until 48 and Fisher to 66 I will eat a whole family size Pizza - box and all... I would be suprised to see either left after 30 (maybe Fisher)!

 

[Procrastinator35]

If both Drew lasts until 48 and Fisher to 66 I will eat a whole family size Pizza - box and all... I would be suprised to see either left after 30 (maybe Fisher)!

Buy an Eagles Boys pizza then....The difference in taste between their pizza & boxes is indiscernible.

 

[54dreamsalive]

Hi Mate think we will go this way at the Dogs thoughts

18-Florent/Venables/Simpcan/Logue

26-Bolton/B.Cox/Battle/Drew/Clarke/Hayward

50-Long/Olango/Fisher/Guelfi/Graham/

 

[Dirty_banchez]

KM what do you think of English's marking ability? He looked quite average for a tall bloke. Also I'm not sure English has the natural forward instincts that would allow him to push forward.

Comparisons have been made to Cox but I'm just not seeing them.

 

[Balony_pony16]

KM what do you think of English's marking ability? He looked quite average for a tall bloke. Also I'm not sure English has the natural forward instincts that would allow him to push forward.

Comparisons have been made to Cox but I'm just not seeing them.

I will add a question on english Knight. He seems to end up on his knees alot in the contest. Is that a fair assessment? I have only watched limited footage of him but it is one thing that I remember. Ben Hudson was a bit like that but hardly a attribute you would accept from a top 10 draftee?

 

[Knightmare]

Hi Mate think we will go this way at the Dogs thoughts

18-Florent/Venables/Simpcan/Logue

26-Bolton/B.Cox/Battle/Drew/Clarke/Hayward

50-Long/Olango/Fisher/Guelfi/Graham/

Some suitable list fits for the Dogs there and some realism with at least one or two of those likely to be available at each choice.

KM what do you think of English's marking ability? He looked quite average for a tall bloke. Also I'm not sure English has the natural forward instincts that would allow him to push forward.

Comparisons have been made to Cox but I'm just not seeing them.

Looking at his mark per game numbers during the season I thought his marking would be ok but then seeing him in the exhibition game at the end of the year up forward his marking was poor. Dropping 2-3 chest marks you'd expect him to take 10/10 games.

People are making comparisons to Cox due to his endurance, accumulation and skill by position. I see English as more like Josh Fraser than Dean Cox and even then without the same ability as Fraser had in the front half.

I will add a question on english Knight. He seems to end up on his knees alot in the contest. Is that a fair assessment? I have only watched limited footage of him but it is one thing that I remember. Ben Hudson was a bit like that but hardly a attribute you would accept from a top 10 draftee?

Not something I've watched for and top of mind can't recall but if you've seen it several times then likely it is a reoccuring problem.

Not ideal in a top 10 pick if they can't keep their feet, though there are other reasons I have English outside my top 10 (power rankings) with his lack of marking forward of centre or impact more broadly not what I look for from an early pick - as a still light bodied ruckman who is still developing his tap work and doesn't really win the hard balls.

 

[anotherletdown]

As someone who values established players I can't say I would have made a trade involving Tippett to gain pick 10. Sydney are in a win now situation and losing Tippett would have been counterproductive to winning, with no one at pick 10 likely to come close to matching his influence in the next 2-3 years.

For me this year pick 10 feels just outside the sweet spot in the draft, with after those academy players more like the top 5-7 being that strongest part in this draft.

Otherwise for me the strength of this draft is the depth in the middle and back end of it.

If Sydney were considering a deal of this nature then they value the talent in this draft differently to how I do - not that that is unusual or surprising this year in such an even draft that is very open to interpretation.

Thanks for the response. The cap space it would have produced and the potential to re build on the run had me seriously thinking. If Nankervis had stayed I was all in and taking that gamble.

I agree with the bolded. I just have this feeling there are a few little plateaus in the first round, first 4, then another block of 4, then it's leaning on a little bit on potential up to about 12 and then I really think there is some great value from there to 18. I reckon Sydney are just short of the next level with both of their picks, fingers crossed on sliders.

 

[tenderwarrior]

At Carlton's pick I think they should be looking at the GWS players but I just can't see them bidding for a GWS player as they won't want to shit in the nest of their feeder club.

I think the better reason is why pay a first round draft pick when they can trade for all of them in a couple of years for relative peanuts.

 

[My name geoff]

Like the moves the Saints made.

Some pieces gained and nothing lost.

I'm not necessarily seeing St Kilda rising up the ladder next season with Riewoldt and Montagna at their ages likely to have a hard time maintaining that form and the team having a fairly good run with injury this season.

But from a list build perspective definitely a step in the right direction for mine.





At least one of Ben Ronke, Lachlan Tiziani or Brodie Romensky should be there.

All for mine would offer great value late.



If one of the three is there my bet would be Petrevski-Seton who may go later than some are predicting.



Willem Drew I feel will be there and offer best available value.

Sam Powell-Pepper and Shai Bolton are two others who could be there and offer some nice value around that point.



Port have taken injured players in the past so I wouldn't be at all surprised if they did the same again.

I plan next week to do a phantom draft of the first two rounds, so will keep who I think each club might take for that.



Taranto won't. Petrevski-Seton could with the latter in my view likely to go somewhere around 10.



I compare McCluggage to Jason Akermanis (though without the attitude and a much more unselfish game overall).

McCluggage has bits of both Pendlebury and O'Meara. Accelerates though lacks the power of O'Meara. Has the composure and class by foot of a Pendlebury though more someone who makes good decisions + executes quickly rather than the loping style movement through traffic of a Pendlebury.

McCluggage is a rare finisher and ball user but then also has the accumulation, ground ball game and running game.



Would be a good draft though none of those national draft guys are necessarily going to be at each of those picks. Romensky probably is there at 63, Ronke may be.
Otherwise things would have to go really right for the others to fall to those positions.



Good draft for mids this year. Excellent depth.

Good draft for ruckmen and key position players next year. Though likely less depth.



Kerbatieh is a possible rookie. Has improved his pressure game further and playing with an unselfishness I seldom saw from him in 2015 which is a step in the right direction.

Watching Mcluggage reminds me of Tom Scully, would that be a fair comparison in regards to the type of player he will evolve into at afl level?

 

[anotherletdown]

I think the better reason is why pay a first round draft pick when they can trade for all of them in a couple of years for relative peanuts.

And that's why they won't bid. Why piss GWS off (who will have to/want to match) and potentially lose the preferred trading status they now hold. It's no different to the Viney non selection a few years back, it's just clubs leveraging what they can. Some draft boards will have Bowes, Setterfield and Perryman going at 5,6,7.

 

[anotherletdown]

Hi KM, sorry one more.

Have GC ballsed up their draft by not holding onto a couple of second round picks to cover a Scheer bid?

Correct me if I'm wrong but they only have 9 points to offer if Scheer gets bid on after pick 10. They will be forced to go into debt. On my read if he gets picked and matched at 18 then it'll be around a 750 point downgrade next year, the equivalent of a downgrade from 4 to 10 next year. Or 1 to 3, 6 to 17.... in the second round (say pick 20) they're looking at a 30+ place downgrade

It'd be a really bad look to finally get someone through their academy and not match the bid? A bid in the 2nd round might not hurt too much with their future picks but a first round pick is a different story. Could you see them passing on Scheer?

I wonder why no one hunted an upgrade to 10 for another 1st rounder and a few decent late picks to cover Scheer...? Swans should have been onto it 19+46+49 for 10. That would have covered a bid anywhere except for 20 or 21.... Anyway, can you see them passing on Scheer

 

[dlanod]

Hi KM, sorry one more.

Have GC ballsed up their draft by not holding onto a couple of second round picks to cover a Scheer bid?

Correct me if I'm wrong but they only have 9 points to offer if Scheer gets bid on after pick 10. They will be forced to go into debt. On my read if he gets picked and matched at 18 then it'll be around a 750 point downgrade next year, the equivalent of a downgrade from 4 to 10 next year. Or 1 to 3, 6 to 17.... in the second round (say pick 20) they're looking at a 30+ place downgrade

The downgrading is correct.

It'd be a really bad look to finally get someone through their academy and not match the bid?

Not really. Port already has two GWS academy boys on their list.

I wonder why no one hunted an upgrade to 10 for another 1st rounder and a few decent late picks to cover Scheer...? Swans should have been onto it 19+46+49 for 10. That would have covered a bid anywhere except for 20 or 21.... Anyway, can you see them passing on Scheer

Because GC already doesn't have the list spots to use pick 10 - they're saying they'll have to delist a contracted player to take it. You want to add two more picks to that? I think GC is budgeting on going into deficit on Scheer precisely to manage their list size this year.

 

[anotherletdown]

The downgrading is correct.



Not really. Port already has two GWS academy boys on their list.



Because GC already doesn't have the list spots to use pick 10 - they're saying they'll have to delist a contracted player to take it. You want to add two more picks to that? I think GC is budgeting on going into deficit on Scheer precisely to manage their list size this year.

Thanks for the reply.

I didn't realise they were that full up on squad spots, so it's a tactical position they're taking. I'm surprised there isn't a worthy candidate for delisting on their list to be honest.

I wouldn't read too much into the GWS players at Port, they were very speculative and GWS were already well covered in those spots. I was more thinking the reputational/marketing side of things if they didn't take him, he's a true local kid and the first from the coast thru the academy

 

[dlanod]

I wouldn't read too much into the GWS players at Port, they were very speculative and GWS were already well covered in those spots. I was more thinking the reputational/marketing side of things if they didn't take him, he's a true local kid and the first from the coast thru the academy

You sure you're not thinking of Bowes? Scheer's family moved from WA to the Coast so he could sign up in the academy to improve his AFL chances.

 

[coniglio_number1]

Thanks for the reply.

I didn't realise they were that full up on squad spots, so it's a tactical position they're taking. I'm surprised there isn't a worthy candidate for delisting on their list to be honest.

I wouldn't read too much into the GWS players at Port, they were very speculative and GWS were already well covered in those spots. I was more thinking the reputational/marketing side of things if they didn't take him, he's a true local kid and the first from the coast thru the academy

Jesse Joyce

 

[tenderwarrior]

Hello Knightmare, not asking who will be the best players from this draft year, but who in your opinion are the most likely to have long AFL careers - the safe bets, low risk/high rewards?

 

[Savage Kent]

KM, I strongly believe that saints need to build their outside mid depth. Which outside mids do you feel would be available around both the 23 pick and 36 pick mark that would suit the saints? Can you see any sliders on the horizon for pick 23? If the saints are able to pick up a quality outside mid with pick 23, who would represent good value at pick 36 regardless of position (i.e someone like Poholke)?

 

[LynchysMob]

Hi KM, sorry one more.

Have GC ballsed up their draft by not holding onto a couple of second round picks to cover a Scheer bid?

Correct me if I'm wrong but they only have 9 points to offer if Scheer gets bid on after pick 10. They will be forced to go into debt. On my read if he gets picked and matched at 18 then it'll be around a 750 point downgrade next year, the equivalent of a downgrade from 4 to 10 next year. Or 1 to 3, 6 to 17.... in the second round (say pick 20) they're looking at a 30+ place downgrade

It'd be a really bad look to finally get someone through their academy and not match the bid? A bid in the 2nd round might not hurt too much with their future picks but a first round pick is a different story. Could you see them passing on Scheer?

I wonder why no one hunted an upgrade to 10 for another 1st rounder and a few decent late picks to cover Scheer...? Swans should have been onto it 19+46+49 for 10. That would have covered a bid anywhere except for 20 or 21.... Anyway, can you see them passing on Scheer

Hey mate I know for a fact the club is set to draft Scheer. Eade also said we will select 5 kids this year so we will take Bowes, three top ten kids and then Scheer we will go in to deficit using one of our four second round picks stockpiled for next year. Hope that makes sense.

 

[tenderwarrior]

Hey mate I know for a fact the club is set to draft Scheer. Eade also said we will select 5 kids this year so we will take Bowes, three top ten kids and then Scheer we will go in to deficit using one of our four second round picks stockpiled for next year. Hope that makes sense.

The only issue is if somebody bids for Scheer in the first round of the draft - then the points affect their 1st round pick next year, not the second round - I think I understand that correctly. I have no doubt that is the plan though.

 

[LynchysMob]

The only issue is if somebody bids for Scheer in the first round of the draft - then the points affect their 1st round pick next year, not the second round - I think I understand that correctly. I have no doubt that is the plan though.

Mm that's possible and would be a bit of a sticky situation but with all those second round picks I'm sure we'd just trade back in to the first round next year.

 

[TheSunGod]

The only issue is if somebody bids for Scheer in the first round of the draft - then the points affect their 1st round pick next year, not the second round - I think I understand that correctly. I have no doubt that is the plan though.

Doesn't really matter though as we're still getting a first round rated pick into the club this year for the equivalent of pick 73 plus a first round downgrade in 2017. Might also be able to add points left over from a Bowes bid if I'm not mistaken. With 5 picks in the first 2 rounds next year we still have more picks than any other club. Very smart use of our all of our points/picks IMO. Not throwing away any.

 

[Orange Agent]

Academy clubs tactically going into deficit is something that hasnt been explored yet and considering the loopholes are being rorted quicker than the AFL can change the rules it will be interesting to see what happens if it goes that way. Points left over basically go in the bin so going into deficit could be seen as a way to maximise points value.