Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2016 Draft Almanac

[Knightmare]

Longer hasn't progressed and might be delisted at the end of the year!?

He held down the no.1 ruck role at an AFL club for a whole season at just 22yo (keeping the older and more experienced Hickey out of the role), including having a 51 hitout, 20 disposal (15 contested), 3 contested mark, 4 clearance, 5 tackle game, another game of 47 hitouts, 5 clearances and 9 contested possessions and another game of 18 disposals and 35 hitouts.

He then had a shoulder reco at the end of the season and word was that he wouldn't have full use/range of movement in his shoulder for about a year after the op and on top of that he had a serious issue with concussion during the year this year, which affected him for about 2 months mid season.

Started to find some form at the end of the season though, culminating in a BOG game in Sandringham's final against Port Melbourne.

Something would have to go pretty disastrously wrong for him next year for him to be delisted at the end of it. He'll only have just turned 24yo and be starting to enter the time when most who play ruck start blossoming.

I'm surprised you have any enthusiasm about Longer's development.

From his 18 games this season just the 167 disposals, 43 marks and one goal? They're poor numbers in each category by position.

I expect 10+ goals and around double the disposal and mark numbers per 22 games of a ruckman.

24 is the age with ruckmen where you know who they are.

Longer is a servicable tap ruckman who is inadequate around the ground and does not provide adequate scoreboard impact either.

Needless to say, I have little time for underperforming bigs - key position or ruck.

 

[aussierulesrules]

I'm surprised you have any enthusiasm about Longer's development.

From his 18 games this season just the 167 disposals, 43 marks and one goal? They're poor numbers in each category by position.

I expect 10+ goals and around double the disposal and mark numbers per 22 games of a ruckman.

24 is the age with ruckmen where you know who they are.

Longer is a servicable tap ruckman who is inadequate around the ground and does not provide adequate scoreboard impact either.

Needless to say, I have little time for underperforming bigs - key position or ruck.

I'm not really big on him like some who support us are or have been, but to suggest he has shown no progression since drafted- when pre injury and concussion issues he was holding down the no.1 ruck role at an AFL club at 22yo- and is a chance to be delisted at the end of next year is just taking things way too far, AFIC.

Those numbers you quoted were from 2015, when he was just 22yo and started the season just 21yo and with just 25 games under his belt. Compare those numbers to say a Shane Mumford at the same age. No-one's suggesting that he's going to be the next Dean Cox here, but there's a big area in between being a Dean Cox and getting delisted at 24yo because you're completely useless (which you'd pretty much have to be to get delisted at that age, when there are 18 teams in need of ruck depth).

I would pretty much forget he went around this year, for the reasons I mentioned. I've seen it time after time when someone who's had a bad injury and/or a badly interrupted season just has a stinker of a season and it usually pays to forget they ever went around. Especially if they're young.

The year before he showed plenty to show that he has a future, with his strengths being his tapwork and physicality and clearance winning ability inside the packs. He played one or two outstanding games that show he has it in him to really be something down the track if he applies himself.

Johnathan Brown was one who was a big wrap for him when he was playing last year, saying that he's the type you want in the ruck for you in finals, because of his strength, physicality and aggression.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Fisher i think would send our board into meltdown due to his size battle would be ok. Seeming though we have delisted and lost a whole lot of defenders; oshea colqhoun stewart carlile etc we've got clurey austin as two promising tall young players who will play more regular senior footy next year but after that nothing. Its a strange place to be because theyre so young but will get oppurtinity but leaves our reserves (i know clubs dont draft for reserves) light on against mature strong forwards in the sanfl. I like himmelberg and rotham because of his ball use although he is skinny and not neccessarily key

Cox Maibaum Ridley may suit

 

[Jeffcrowe]

West Coast are returning next year to Domain. With Mitchell and Priddis both over 30 as identified, WCE's window is short and may only be the next two years.

After Gaff and Jetta I'm not excited about the others. Masten should be passed by if the other options were strong. He is very outside, does not provide enough scoreboard impact or impact on games generally. Duggan can develop but isn't there yet. He could be one, but unclear until it is. Karpany, Snadden, Mutimer and Cole remain but aren't the solution until/unless they develop. Big steps in each case are required to become worthwhile long term and clear best 22 pieces.

With limited outside players this year, it's likely a case of wait a year, see if any of those guys develop, and if not, find someone else next year of higher quality.

Don't forget Sheed - kid is a gun

 

[HedgeFund]

Ease up everyone.

If Cam Wood, Robbie Warnick, Luke Lowden, Jonathan Giles and Zac Clarke can stay in the AFL system for around 6-8 years each , Longer's AFL list career is guaranteed to be.....

longer than one more year.

It's the benefit of being 200cm plus

 

[Knightmare]

I'm not really big on him like some who support us are or have been, but to suggest he has shown no progression since drafted- when pre injury and concussion issues he was holding down the no.1 ruck role at an AFL club at 22yo- and is a chance to be delisted at the end of next year is just taking things way too far, AFIC.

Those numbers you quoted were from 2015, when he was just 22yo and started the season just 21yo and with just 25 games under his belt. Compare those numbers to say a Shane Mumford at the same age. No-one's suggesting that he's going to be the next Dean Cox here, but there's a big area in between being a Dean Cox and getting delisted at 24yo because you're completely useless (which you'd pretty much have to be to get delisted at that age, when there are 18 teams in need of ruck depth).

I would pretty much forget he went around this year, for the reasons I mentioned. I've seen it time after time when someone who's had a bad injury and/or a badly interrupted season just has a stinker of a season and it usually pays to forget they ever went around. Especially if they're young.

The year before he showed plenty to show that he has a future, with his strengths being his tapwork and physicality and clearance winning ability inside the packs. He played one or two outstanding games that show he has it in him to really be something down the track if he applies himself.

Johnathan Brown was one who was a big wrap for him when he was playing last year, saying that he's the type you want in the ruck for you in finals, because of his strength, physicality and aggression.

My hard stance is from the perspective that after the age of 24, unless a ruckman projects as a number one ruckman or a best 22 player I don't view them as worthwhile.

From a list management perspective, as any of those who have read my Collingwood Almanac year on year, I have an unrelenting view towards improving a clubs best 22. With key position players and ruckmen particularly I'm a very hard marker and believe in having superiority by position at AFL level in each post - as best as can be practically achieved.

Jesse White I felt after his first season should have been cut. Corey Gault should have been cut two years ago I felt. Cameron Wood I called to be delisted in 2010 and each following season.

At 24, Mumford arrived in Sydney, and he arrived as a footballer, coming into his own, tackling like a beast, winning the contested ball and getting the hitouts.

Dean Cox even being a late bloomer as a 23 year old came into his own.

Aaron Sandilands as a 22 year old became a very hard to beat tap ruckman.

The age of 24 through the ruck (and 22 for key position players) is the magic age. You are who you are and if you're not looking like a best 22 player, I wouldn't want you on my team, with that being the stage I'd start exploring alternatives. There are always exceptions but very few and far between when you actually go through the past 15 years those great ruckmen and key position players. You'll find a consistency in the ages they develop and when looking at the statistics their identity and what they can and can't do has statistically becomes clear.

Longer still has next year to prove himself. It's not over for him. But this is the year I'd use the cliche "make or break year" for Longer.

If he doesn't take that next step and become markedly better either around the ground or as a threat forward of centre marking or providing heavier scoreboard impact. I'd be looking to trade him for anything I can get.

 

[Knightmare]

Ease up everyone.

If Cam Wood, Robbie Warnick, Luke Lowden, Jonathan Giles and Zac Clarke can stay in the AFL system for around 6-8 years each , Longer's AFL list career is guaranteed to be.....

longer than one more year.

It's the benefit of being 200cm plus

These examples are exactly why I make the point I do.

Cam Wood was absolutely awful. Poor tap ruckman. Did nothing around the ground. Poor mark. No scoreboard impact.

Warnock was a fine tap ruckman but nothing around the ground or forward of centre.

Lowden never did enough and was never AFL standard either.

Giles I'm more ok about because as he showed in his first year he is capable of relieving through the ruck and taking a grab up forward and kicking some goals. If I'm going to have a genuine depth ruckman, Giles is more someone I would consider because he is multi-positional and does more things to a good level.

Zac Clarke for Fremantle is ok. He has to be retained now given the ages of Sandilands and Griffin. He has throughout his career been stuck behind Sandilands leading to poor hitout numbers, but in the relieving ruck role he has been ok with fine hitout numbers for the time spent in there, moves well and finds some ball around the ground. He like Giles is someone I'd consider while probably not the ideal option, sufficient and potentially good enough to be a best 22 player, with opportunity the main thing that has held him back and left him a question-mark.

 

[Tippa43]

You would be stoked we are at 43 so you have us covered

Still a big chance to get yas!

 

[Suma Magic]

I'm a huge fan of KM's analysis.

But some things are strange.

For example, insisting that West Coast should consider Subiaco Oval's dimensions when forming their 2016 drafting strategy is bizarre. It's unlikely that any of our recruits will play more than a handful of games on that oval.

 

[Knightmare]

I'm a huge fan of KM's analysis.

But some things are strange.

For example, insisting that West Coast should consider Subiaco Oval's dimensions when forming their 2016 drafting strategy is bizarre. It's unlikely that any of our recruits will play more than a handful of games on that oval.

My argument is not the oval specifically. I shouldn't have bothered mentioning it. It's not a major factor at all.

I'd just more generally like to see more quality on the outside to compliment Priddis and Mitchell.

Gaff is one. Jetta is hot and cold, but has his good seasons. After those two I'd like to see another good option.

 

[Suma Magic]

My argument is not the oval specifically. I shouldn't have bothered mentioning it. It's not a major factor at all.

I'd just more generally like to see more quality on the outside to compliment Priddis and Mitchell.

Gaff is one. Jetta is hot and cold, but has his good seasons. After those two I'd like to see another good option.

It wasn't so much the original comment, it was more that you stuck by it when questioned about it a few pages back. Good to hear that you can see why it wouldn't make sense.

Don't disagree with your assessment of our outside mids.

 

[avishka5]

Don't forget Sheed - kid is a gun

Sheeds part of the 22 and even with him we still need a few inside mids. Plays a bit of outside here and there but don't think he will be adequate support for gaff and jetta in the long run.

 

[Caputo]

Pretty disappointing to read this from a Saints fan - targeted towards a guy who dedicates so much time for all of us here. And why? It's not like he was slandering you or the club, he just has his opinions on one of our players, which he's allowed to have like many others do - which wasn't even really that bad to begin with.

Like Bicks said, don't read it if you don't like it.

 

[Jordie_tackles]

Ease up everyone.

If Cam Wood, Robbie Warnick, Luke Lowden, Jonathan Giles and Zac Clarke can stay in the AFL system for around 6-8 years each , Longer's AFL list career is guaranteed to be.....

longer than one more year.

It's the benefit of being 200cm plus

Spencer must nearly be at 10 years as a specialist back up ruckman

 

[Brentmeister]

Why are some people getting so upset by what knightmare says? It's not like they're paying for the service. If you don't like it you can f*** off.

 

[Yamumluvsbigcox]

Sheeds part of the 22 and even with him we still need a few inside mids. Plays a bit of outside here and there but don't think he will be adequate support for gaff and jetta in the long run.

Gaff and jetta will be supporting sheed

 

[CRIPPA9]

Hi KM,

Your thoughts on Joe Atley? Who do you compare him to? Draft range? Could he be there for Carlton's pick 48?

Thanks mate.

 

[Prochard123]

Hey Knightmare what are your thoughts on drafting a ruckman with an early pick?

In the past 5 years or so the saying is that it's not worth the investment, but then players like Naitanui and to a much greater extent Grundy has REALLY proven doubters wrong. But then there're also clear failures such as Kreuzer, Longer.

Honestly I just can't see English working out as a top 10 pick for any club. In many phantom drafts people seem to think English is worth a pick as early as top 10, but like you said he demonstrates very similar traits to Fraser. I just can't see him transitioning into 1. A proper ruck. 2. A proper KPF 3. A key forward who pinch hit in the rucks (Lobb, Boyd). He seems to be more suited as a midfielder than either ruck or forward. His size is also extremely worrying if you were to develop him into a ruck/key position player. He probably needs to add on 15-20 kilos to be of adequate size for AFL. However, it is ALWAYS easier said than done for this scenario, and then you have problems with adapting to your new frame/play style/athleticism. His current athleticism will also be compromised, his skills will take time to adjust with muscles of greater mass. His leap won't be as much of a strength. I just don't see it working out. Thoughts?

 

[Balony_pony16]

Why are some people getting so upset by what knightmare says? It's not like they're paying for the service. If you don't like it you can f*** off.

Phantom draft threads used to be 100% chill boards but lately there seems to be people taking things personal a bit too much which is what you expect to see in club boards not around here

 

[Knightmare]

Hi KM,

Your thoughts on Joe Atley? Who do you compare him to? Draft range? Could he be there for Carlton's pick 48?

Thanks mate.

Could be there at 48. Will come into consideration for clubs 3rd round onwards. May slide as late as the rookie draft. Probably there at 48.

Hey Knightmare what are your thoughts on drafting a ruckman with an early pick?

In the past 5 years or so the saying is that it's not worth the investment, but then players like Naitanui and to a much greater extent Grundy has REALLY proven doubters wrong. But then there're also clear failures such as Kreuzer, Longer.

Honestly I just can't see English working out as a top 10 pick for any club. In many phantom drafts people seem to think English is worth a pick as early as top 10, but like you said he demonstrates very similar traits to Fraser. I just can't see him transitioning into 1. A proper ruck. 2. A proper KPF 3. A key forward who pinch hit in the rucks (Lobb, Boyd). He seems to be more suited as a midfielder than either ruck or forward. His size is also extremely worrying if you were to develop him into a ruck/key position player. He probably needs to add on 15-20 kilos to be of adequate size for AFL. However, it is ALWAYS easier said than done for this scenario, and then you have problems with adapting to your new frame/play style/athleticism. His current athleticism will also be compromised, his skills will take time to adjust with muscles of greater mass. His leap won't be as much of a strength. I just don't see it working out. Thoughts?

This is a topic I'm covering in this weeks article. Talking about the strengths in this draft and also giving a historical context of each position in the draft - where the successes typically come from.

On English, I can't see him transitioning into a forward if his marking from the U18 exhibition game is any indication. Dropped everything and showed poor hands overhead and even dropping routine chest marks.

I see English being fine at AFL level but just not a star. He can be a lead ruckman for a team, and play his game, but he lacks the power or freakishness to be a great or special key forward as a lighter, more mobile type.

 

[bmaurizio]

Hi KM,
I've read that William Hayward is moving up into top twenty or better as a prospect , can you please share yr insigh and info.
Thanks

 

[Knightmare]

Hi KM,
I've read that William Hayward is moving up into top twenty or better as a prospect , can you please share yr insigh and info.
Thanks

He is increasingly sounding like a first round prospect. He was first round in my last phantom draft and I'm considering moving him up further.

Had a big finals series with 9 + 4 goals in the final two SANFL colts finals.

He's a strong marking medium forward who does his best work close to goal.

I covered him in a few of my articles (listed on page one) but in this piece he is my feature player for the week:
http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/17598612/knightmare-afl-draft-wrap-hayward-fires-sanfl-final

 

[bmaurizio]

Thanks KM , much appreciated.

 

[Hawker98]

On English, I can't see him transitioning into a forward if his marking from the U18 exhibition game is any indication. Dropped everything and showed poor hands overhead and even dropping routine chest marks.

I see English being fine at AFL level but just not a star. He can be a lead ruckman for a team, and play his game, but he lacks the power or freakishness to be a great or special key forward as a lighter, more mobile type.

I agree on English so I don't understand why so many people are wanting to see him gone in the first round



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[Knightmare]

I agree on English so I don't understand why so many people are wanting to see him gone in the first round



On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

Lots of clubs see much greater upside than I do in English. That's why he is rated where he is and why the rumours suggest he is a top 10 selection.