Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2016 Draft Almanac

[SaintsSeptember]

Opinon is just that. and i'm glad this thread is here, because one sided discussions are boring.
I thought Billy showed good signs in 2015, including some games where he had plenty of contested possessions.
His Shoulder injury sustained that season, lasted through the preseason and stopped him playing early games.
Add to that a serious concussion and i'm happy to cut him some slack for 2016.

 

[Prochard123]

If you think Longer is a clear failure then you either don't know much about football or are trolling.

What, so you think Longer has been a success for a pick 8?

 

[SaintsSeptember]

What, so you think Longer has been a success for a pick 8?

Pick 8 is no longer relevant.

 

[Prochard123]

Pick 8 is no longer relevant.

Well it really is relevant given the context. I stated that the move of picking Longer with such an early pick is a failure, not the player himself being a failure. So unless you think drafting Longer with pick 8 is worthwhile in hindsight, you're arguing with noone.

 

[RedBulls]

I don't understand how you could think of Longer as a successful draft choice. He's only played 43 games, left the club after 2 seasons to then go and play in the reserves. Guys still in the draft when he was selected Toby Greene (All Australian, 98 games played), Sam Docherty (premier rebounding defender in the game, also a poor draft choice given he left the club) Taylor Adams, Devon Smith, Brandon Ellis, Clay Smith Seb Ross, Elliot Yeo (also left), Brad Hill and Jack Newnes. Given Longer was taken at selection 8 in the draft and then another 2 players following drafted to the club also left, he is a failed draft choice

 

[Jivlain]

I don't understand how you could think of Longer as a successful draft choice. He's only played 43 games, left the club after 2 seasons to then go and play in the reserves. Guys still in the draft when he was selected Toby Greene (All Australian, 98 games played), Sam Docherty (premier rebounding defender in the game, also a poor draft choice given he left the club) Taylor Adams, Devon Smith, Brandon Ellis, Clay Smith Seb Ross, Elliot Yeo (also left), Brad Hill and Jack Newnes. Given Longer was taken at selection 8 in the draft and then another 2 players following drafted to the club also left, he is a failed draft choice

The others leaving is not a consideration as to whether he was a good choice at pick 8. All three failures stand alone.

 

[Prochard123]

The others leaving is not a consideration as to whether he was a good choice at pick 8. All three failures stand alone.

But "If you think Longer is a clear failure then you either don't know much about football or are trolling"?

 

[Jivlain]

But "If you think Longer is a clear failure then you either don't know much about football or are trolling"?

He certainly didn't work out for us. Had we been able to keep him then that is a very different question, but for us, as a use of a pick 8... failure.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Well it really is relevant given the context. I stated that the move of picking Longer with such an early pick is a failure, not the player himself being a failure. So unless you think drafting Longer with pick 8 is worthwhile in hindsight, you're arguing with noone.

OK well he's clearly a failure for the Lions since they lost out.
However both of the players you named seem to be able to compete to some extent at AFL level. Gorringe a far better example of a failure.
If listing a couple of examples of players who turned out ordinary is grounds for not taking Rucks early, by the same token:

Butcher, Watts Grant. Tall Forwards.
Melksham, Bennell, O'Rourke, Toumpas ,Sumner: Mids
Yarran , Morton

That's the draft, some of the kids are never going to be as good as they were the day they were drafted.

 

[x_les_x]

Hey KM what are your thoughts on Larke medallist Jack Graham? To me he reminds me so much of peter bampton who was a great clearance player but couldn't kick to save his life, ended up not being picked up at all when he was projected at a 45+ range.

 

[Roadto2018]

What, so you think Longer has been a success for a pick 8?

Can't put a young ruckmen in either category at this stage I wouldnt have though. However had we been having this conversation last year it would've been saying he was a success, obviously you couldn't say that now, however to say he is a clear failure is simply incorrect.

 

[Roadto2018]

But "If you think Longer is a clear failure then you either don't know much about football or are trolling"?

He certainly didn't work out for us. Had we been able to keep him then that is a very different question, but for us, as a use of a pick 8... failure.

Okay in a Brisbane Lions sense he was a failure for sure, however that is a unique situation with an element (go home factor) that isn't frequent when analysing draft selections. In terms of pure performance, 2016 was a failure but wasn't helped by a few other factors, however Longer as a player overall is far from a failure, simply unfortunate to have been kept out by a well performing Hickey.

 

[RedBulls]

Hey KM what are your thoughts on Larke medallist Jack Graham? To me he reminds me so much of peter bampton who was a great clearance player but couldn't kick to save his life, ended up not being picked up at all when he was projected at a 45+ range.

I hope him and Sharenberg both end up with us at 30 and 31. Both of them and Ollie together would be an unreal center clearance unit for the next decade

 

[king rising]

Petrevski Seton keen to move East to Melbourne as said in his 'going places' profile... Carlton at 5 or North at 11 Knightmare? don't see Gold Coast selecting him at all due to flight risk and especially after the Jarrod Garlett news this morning. assuming Freo take English, surely North are in with a shot? Cheers.

 

[blueiris]

Petrevski Seton keen to move East to Melbourne as said in his 'going places' profile... Carlton at 5 or North at 11 Knightmare? don't see Gold Coast selecting him at all due to flight risk and especially after the Jarrod Garlett news this morning. assuming Freo take English, surely North are in with a shot? Cheers.

What flight risk? He was hopeful of being selected by the Lions

 

[king rising]

What flight risk? He was hopeful of being selected by the Lions

enlighten me as to where he said he wanted to be selected by the Lions?

 

[blueiris]

enlighten me as to where he said he wanted to be selected by the Lions?

Did you read the article on the AFL website says he was interviewed by Fremantle and the Lions and would have been willing to go to Lions because he supports them

 

[Bicks]

I hope him and Sharenberg both end up with us at 30 and 31. Both of them and Ollie together would be an unreal center clearance unit for the next decade

And a bloody slow centre clearance unit at that, highly doubt Port would take both, surely a mid with a blend of inside/outside ability and above average pace would be a smarter move with one of those picks.

 

[king rising]

Did you read the article on the AFL website says he was interviewed by Fremantle and the Lions and would have been willing to go to Lions because he supports them

yes, and he also stated his first preference would be a move to a Melbourne club

 

[Knightmare]

Hi KM,

I am not a huge follower of the U/18 comp, but am hearing a lot about Sam Powell-Pepper for West Coasts first pick.

I like the sound of him, even though it's probably a reach.

Your thoughts of him at the pick and do you think it's a genuine possibility?

Would be a good selection for West Coast in my view. He is a possible choice and someone I see receiving consideration.

Has genuine power and ground ball winning ability. Has a good endurance base and always hits contests on the move. Not a great kick, but otherwise has more than enough attributes to be draftable around 12.

Hey KM

A lot of people are saying that Begley will be going at around pick 60, what do you think?

On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

If picked he is a late pick. Probably not far off.

Someone the Hawks should consider selecting. Has some traits. Dangerous as a forward particularly.

thanks KM but that post of mine you were replying to was a response to 54dreamsalive speculation of the range players might go in. busy time of the year for you with BF PD and ESPN, love reading your thoughts.

while i have you what are your thoughts on the lions list build since the go home 5? i think it has been very good and with another good one coming this year i think we will have the makings of our next finals side on the list.

As per my article last week, Brisbane's list doesn't enthuse me. Not enough veteran leadership and experience there for anything to grow.

Given this, it is unclear whether Brisbane are just drafting poorly or just failing to develop talent.

I like some of the first and second year types on Brisbane's list and see scope to develop in those players - with the academy boys specifically promising.

A nucleus of kpps can start to take place after next years draft and from there that's probably when I see Brisbane, if some experience is injected starting to take some strides in the right direction.

Km do you have a new articles coming out anytime soon on ESPN?

One article every week up until certainly the end of November if not early December. Another one coming this week (will submit to ESPN tomorrow 1pm - up to them when they both it online).

Will be talking about draft dynamics - analysing historically where types by position tend to come out of the draft then comparing that to this years group.

I've studied the heck out of the history of the AFL draft for a long time so I'm expecting this weeks piece to be a particularly strong one.

Opinon is just that. and i'm glad this thread is here, because one sided discussions are boring.
I thought Billy showed good signs in 2015, including some games where he had plenty of contested possessions.
His Shoulder injury sustained that season, lasted through the preseason and stopped him playing early games.
Add to that a serious concussion and i'm happy to cut him some slack for 2016.

Looking at his AFL stats, VFL stats. They're not where I'd want them to be.

No more than 11 disposals in any of his 14 VFL games last season? Only 3 goals kicked? Never more than 3 marks taken in a game? Those are numbers you'd get from Robbie Warnock or Shaun Hampson.

Ruckmen 10 years ago would have gotten away with that, but not today with ruckmen needing several strings to their bows.

2017 will tell us a lot about where Longer is at and whether he has the capacity to pass Hickey by.

Hey KM what are your thoughts on Larke medallist Jack Graham? To me he reminds me so much of peter bampton who was a great clearance player but couldn't kick to save his life, ended up not being picked up at all when he was projected at a 45+ range.

Graham is a good ball winner but poor kick.

Bampton for mine was the better kick of the two. He is relatively slower and has shown less improvement since 15/16 relative to Graham which are the differences.

Graham from the second round onward should come into the mix. Has done enough to be picked.

 

[Knightmare]

Petrevski Seton keen to move East to Melbourne as said in his 'going places' profile... Carlton at 5 or North at 11 Knightmare? don't see Gold Coast selecting him at all due to flight risk and especially after the Jarrod Garlett news this morning. assuming Freo take English, surely North are in with a shot? Cheers.

Players rarely go to the clubs/cities they want to.

It's in the hands of AFL clubs.

He could just as easily end up with Fremantle or Gold Coast, probably even more so than Carlton or North Melbourne given where their picks are and the interest reported from both clubs.

 

[blueiris]

Is you're suggestion for the Lions to do what Collingwood did this trade season and pick up some dud mature players because you believe we need experience

 

[Kangas_11]

Hey KM, with the Roos positioned at 11 and potentially looking for a slider, I was wondering who would be your best bets for a bolter into the top 10 this year.

Obviously Logue has jumped up in most phantoms, but could a Hayward or SPP sneak in?

 

[remfan101]

Hi Knightmare, thoughts on GWS academy boy Kobe Mutch? Have heard rumours that North are keen at 32/33, do you think he'll be available around that point, would GWS match and what kind of player do you see him developing into?

 

[adammania9]

Is you're suggestion for the Lions to do what Collingwood did this trade season and pick up some dud mature players because you believe we need experience

Why the melt? KM has linked you to no mature aged players, and it's unfair and irrelevant to tear into Collingwood here. The clubs' recruits are suitable and all fill needs.