Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2017 Draft Almanac

[Richo83]

Why would a sub six foot speed machine need to take more marks? Mark stats are overrated for small players.

 

[dougy58]

Fair point, but what makes you think he's got less chance of making it than any of the other dozens of kids who don't look as made for senior footy as Worpel?

I think he lacks the poise necessary to play midfield at the next level, and I don't see him having the versatility to play elsewhere.
I'm not doubting his attitude or agression at the ball and man, but he dump kicks from stoppages and the way opposition teams set up with +1 or 2 behind the footy it comes back with interest. Also don't think he has nearly as much physical development left in him as some of the other kids. Happy to be proven wrong by tough players every time though.....

 

[Dysfunctional]

Impact and elite traits that allow him to dominate games. He's a high volume contested baller who will dominate you up forward with his 1v1 strength, ground ball winning and explosiveness. And when he pushes through the midfield, he'll dominate at stoppages, winning first possession and winning the clearance. No one in this draft has a game-changing impact as often in this draft as Rayner.

Who do you think Carlton are most likely to get at 3? Paddy looking likely?

 

[Knightmare]

do you know which clubs are keen on worpel Knightmare?

Essendon have been mentioned as the most likely with their midfield needs.

Hawthorn are another that would make sense in the 3rd round.

 

[Knightmare]

Who do you think Carlton are most likely to get at 3? Paddy looking likely?

Paddy is a chance. Adam Cerra the other possible (assuming Rayner and LDU go 1/2).

 

[Dysfunctional]

Paddy is a chance. Adam Cerra the other possible (assuming Rayner and LDU go 1/2).

Cheers mate. Do you think they’d go one of those two as they are more of a pure mid even if Rayner was there?

 

[Knightmare]

Cheers mate. Do you think they’d go one of those two as they are more of a pure mid even if Rayner was there?

If Rayner is there, he's probably the choice, is my best guess.

 

[Knightmare]

On page 1, post 6, I've added my extended power rankings 21-50, just for fun.

 

[Glenny83]

On page 1, post 6, I've added my extended power rankings 21-50, just for fun.

Nice work KM


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[Glenny83]

I see you have Bonar at 39 in your rankings which seems pretty accurate on all accounts. I've been following the draft closely for only 4 years but I haven't heard the hype about a player without runs on the board like Bonar, he must have really impressed in the game with no video. Cockatoo was slightly similar but he was playing at 17 yrs still as opposed to Bonar doing his knee at 15.


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[dougy58]

I see you have Bonar at 39 in your rankings which seems pretty accurate on all accounts. I've been following the draft closely for only 4 years but I haven't heard the hype about a player without runs on the board like Bonar, he must have really impressed in the game with no video. Cockatoo was slightly similar but he was playing at 17 yrs still as opposed to Bonar doing his knee at 15.


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Tom Swift (WCE) was the last one i can remember like this, dominant as a 16 then virtually unsighted. Stringer and Lever etc missed some/all u18 seasons too but they had serious runs on the board prior to their respective injuries.

 

[Glenny83]

Tom Swift (WCE) was the last one i can remember like this, dominant as a 16 then virtually unsighted. Stringer and Lever etc missed some/all u18 seasons too but they had serious runs on the board prior to their respective injuries.

He's my slider from top 10 predictions.


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[bl4ke]

I see you have Bonar at 39 in your rankings which seems pretty accurate on all accounts. I've been following the draft closely for only 4 years but I haven't heard the hype about a player without runs on the board like Bonar, he must have really impressed in the game with no video. Cockatoo was slightly similar but he was playing at 17 yrs still as opposed to Bonar doing his knee at 15.


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There is video of Bonar playing for the Stingrays and in the All Stars game this year

 

[THE_GUN]

On page 1, post 6, I've added my extended power rankings 21-50, just for fun.

I couldnt see P.Naish in your top 50 ?? You dont rate him or cant i see it

 

[Knightmare]

I see you have Bonar at 39 in your rankings which seems pretty accurate on all accounts. I've been following the draft closely for only 4 years but I haven't heard the hype about a player without runs on the board like Bonar, he must have really impressed in the game with no video. Cockatoo was slightly similar but he was playing at 17 yrs still as opposed to Bonar doing his knee at 15.


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Bonar has upside and looked good in the u16s, but I don't love his work in the TAC Cup enough to give him any more credit above other players I really like the games of.

Cockatoo has much greater explosion out of the contest and really uses it. I haven't seen enough of that from Bonar to regard him as highly at the same stage.

I couldnt see P.Naish in your top 50 ?? You dont rate him or cant i see it

I strongly considered including Naish but in the end I couldn't find a spot for him.

His TAC Cup play did nothing for me, averaging less than 20 disposals, not winning enough of the contested ball, and with too many skill errors and poor decisions made.

He can be dangerous at times up forward and has pace, but ultimately there were other forwards I evaluated as better.

 

[MileHigh]

Hey KM follow your phantom closely every year and appreciate the no nonsense, objective approach you apply to it. By far and away one of the best and most accurate appraisals. Well done on your craft.

Curious about your thoughts on this years draft comparatively to others. Seems to me that in previous years at this stage you could almost lock in the top 10. This year with players like Fogarty, Stephenson and Bonar, as well as clubs potentially drafting for needs (eg. KPP like Naughton) there seems to be more uncertainly than usual. There even seems to be a chance Raynor slips to 3 and Fogarty goes at 4, and a player like Cerra whos been in that top 4 conversation could even slide past a few clubs into the 6-10 bracket.

Would you say this draft would be one of the harder ones to predict? Of the likely top 10 picks (power rankings), which player do you think is the hardest to predict where they will go?

 

[james Dean]

Hey KM, I know this is a hard question to answer but what would you rate the percentages of Brisbane taking Brayshaw vs Rayner I.E 50/50 or 75/25 in favour of Rayner?

 

[JuniorWatch]

On page 1, post 6, I've added my extended power rankings 21-50, just for fun.

Am I reading it wrong?
You've got O'Brien at 12 and 21. Worpel at 13 and 23. CCJ at 18 and 25. Brander 19 and 26....

 

[Dysfunctional]

Hey KM, I know this is a hard question to answer but what would you rate the percentages of Brisbane taking Brayshaw vs Rayner I.E 50/50 or 75/25 in favour of Rayner?

About 95% Rayner now. Decision made

 

[Turbocat]

Knightmare ..Geelong have been linked to X Collingwood Rookie Lachlan Smith .. what type of player is he? The article I read had him playing in the backline and taking a lot of marks.. He is a backman?

 

[CaptainMurphy]

Am I reading it wrong?
You've got O'Brien at 12 and 21. Worpel at 13 and 23. CCJ at 18 and 25. Brander 19 and 26....

The 1-20 at the start of this thread is out of date. you need to go to the ESPN website for the up to date one. 21-50 in this thread is up to date.

 

[Tandy]

Interesting that Job Anderson in the Herald Sun mentioned Andrew McLeods son Connor as a father son prospect for this year. Anyone know anything about how his year panned out? I remember seeing e was at WWT. Could be a late developer. Maybe Stephen Wells could pluck him from obscurity as he does every year.

 

[hammer63]

Hey KM
Why the big drops on Richards, Murphy and Bonar.
Was the hype just to much on these players.


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[Knightmare]

Hey KM follow your phantom closely every year and appreciate the no nonsense, objective approach you apply to it. By far and away one of the best and most accurate appraisals. Well done on your craft.

Curious about your thoughts on this years draft comparatively to others. Seems to me that in previous years at this stage you could almost lock in the top 10. This year with players like Fogarty, Stephenson and Bonar, as well as clubs potentially drafting for needs (eg. KPP like Naughton) there seems to be more uncertainly than usual. There even seems to be a chance Raynor slips to 3 and Fogarty goes at 4, and a player like Cerra whos been in that top 4 conversation could even slide past a few clubs into the 6-10 bracket.

Would you say this draft would be one of the harder ones to predict? Of the likely top 10 picks (power rankings), which player do you think is the hardest to predict where they will go?

Last year was a fairly tricky one to guess also, but this year there are a lot more possible ways things could go with those very earliest picks. It may well take until draft day until we know who will go top 10, or have a fairly strong idea.

Keep in mind with my power rankings that there is substantial variation to what will happen on draft day, as they're ordered the way I feel they should based on my projections of career outcomes. Of my top 10 power rankings, Noah Balta is the trickiest to predict. Does he go pick 20? Somewhere closer to 30? Does he drop even further to around pick 40? Or does someone last minute decide to go earlier than expected and take him inside the first round? He's one who has divided opinions probably the most this year of any projected top half of draft choice due to not having the opportunity to play a settled role in a position he is likely to play at AFL level, making us all guess based on his attributes in large part what he can develop into.

Hey KM, I know this is a hard question to answer but what would you rate the percentages of Brisbane taking Brayshaw vs Rayner I.E 50/50 or 75/25 in favour of Rayner?

It feels like 80/20 Rayner to Brisbane.

I know Brisbane are looking at Rayner with the hope of adding Lachlan Fogarty also to pair with him - as a fellow Western Jet - viewing the pairing as a possible decision that helps with the homesickness factor. GWS could wreck that though if they go with L.Fogarty at 11, with a view to develop him as a pressure forward (to replace Devon Smith - who they have no replacement for). So if anything worries Brisbane out of Rayner, that may be it.

Brayshaw on the other hand while it appears they rate him behind Rayner, he is probably the one they consider the safer choice. Brayshaw playing for Sandringham can easily be paired up with a teammate, if they want to, with Constable expected to be there at pick 18.

Am I reading it wrong?
You've got O'Brien at 12 and 21. Worpel at 13 and 23. CCJ at 18 and 25. Brander 19 and 26....

Haven't taken the time to update my power rankings where you'll be looking (see the link in the original post or my signature to see my November/updated top 20).

Knightmare ..Geelong have been linked to X Collingwood Rookie Lachlan Smith .. what type of player is he? The article I read had him playing in the backline and taking a lot of marks.. He is a backman?

Lachlan Smith is a medium forward/backman (190cm) - capable at either end. He only played the one season for Collingwood VFL as a newly drafted player out of the u18s. He did nothing and struggled in the VFL, playing predominantly as a leadup forward.

Don't believe I've seen him since (2011/2012 or whenever he was with Collingwood). Can't say I get down to the Goulburn Valley League with TAC Cup and the occasional VFL matches in Victoria where the draft relevant talent tends to come from.

It sounds like he's much improved now, and we all develop at our different rates.

I'd imagine based on need, Smith would be drafted as a 3rd tall defender/general backman, if Geelong elect to take him.

Interesting that Job Anderson in the Herald Sun mentioned Andrew McLeods son Connor as a father son prospect for this year. Anyone know anything about how his year panned out? I remember seeing e was at WWT. Could be a late developer. Maybe Stephen Wells could pluck him from obscurity as he does every year.

Can't say I've seen Connor McLeod. Just the four SANFL U18s matches. Not enough exposed form to go off of. Presumably one who will need to come back next year and play more games.

Hey KM
Why the big drops on Richards, Murphy and Bonar.
Was the hype just to much on these players.

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They're three I don't rate as highly as clubs seem to.

Richards and Bonar I expect to feature around 10 and Murphy probably around 15. They'll all go higher than I rate them, but I expect variance in my own rankings v clubs.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

Well done on your craft.

His craft? Jesus. He's not weaving baskets.

Knightmare – you're now tipping WC to take Brander with their first pick? Shouldn't they be focused on the midfield? Or if they go tall, wouldn't they prefer Allen?