Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2017 Draft Almanac

[footy24seven]

I really didn't like seeing Balta in the ruck. While Calder lack options and Balta is clearly the least bad, they're losing so much not having him forward.

I can't agree with him going back. I'll agree it's something he can absolutely do, and he can break the lines in the way a Sam Frost or Will Schofield can. But why play Lance Franklin back when he's so special up forward? Balta isn't quite that but he feels closer for me to Franklin than say Jesse White who is another playing that same gamestyle as that super athletic forward. He's a freak at ground level, capable overhead and looks so at ease with ball in hand.
For me he's the most natural key forward in this draft and potentially possessing the greatest upside by position if he gets the continuity as a permanent forward. He's non-traditional having that Franklin-like flanker feel, looking adept up the field also. I just can't help but remain really high on what I see.

 

[footy24seven]

Yes he certainly is a talent KM and the fact that we can have this sort of discussion shows that the possibilities for him are many. I look forward to watching a career unfold as I imagine you do. One to watch!


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[SumTingWong]

Knightmare , what do you think of Harry Dear as a trade target for Richmond? Griffiths may have to call it quits, Elton is terrible and Chol is still a little way off off he makes it at all. Dear can pinch in the ruck which is what we usually need with our 2nd forward and he would be alot cheaper in coin than Reid/Schache and cost less in draft picks as well. Then we can pick up 2 more KPP's with our 2 first rounders in the draft really setting us up for the future.

 

[Knightmare]

Burton is playing the Mills role for Hawthorn, and is doing it better than Mills is at the moment. Which is pretty impressive for a kid who has played all of 10 games in 3 years due to a horrific injury. I agree there is a lot of a talent in this draft, Oliver was awesome last night, but from what I've observed of Burton this season is he'll be a best 5 player on a list and is probably leading the race for this year's rising star award - everything he's doing this year is outstripping what Mills did last year when he won it.

I know lots are proposing McGrath as the rising star. And he's had a terrific start to the season. Burton also I'll agree should be in the mix.

While a few years older, if I had to pick the most impressive so far (and I pick it wrong every year so don't bet on my choice), but I'd go Caleb Marchbank. He's on pace for a 150 mark person (per 22 games) averaging 6.8 marks over his first five games. Not that he will be an All-Australian, but those are All-Australian numbers in marks at least, with his intercept marking game highly impressive so far if he keeps going at anything close to his present pace.

Hey KM

What can you tell me about GWS boys, Shipley, Powell, highmore, Owen-auburn, Richards and Myers?

Also what rounds do you expect bids to be made on each?

Have yet to see the GWS Academy boys in action this season with the U18 Academy Series really quite secretive with no match footage or stats. With none of the games being played in Victoria, I'm hanging out to see the Allies during the U18 Championships, and hopefully many of those will be chosen.

Hi KM, Ive been watching Cassidy Parish since I live in Geelong. I think he can win the hardball and has an uncanny way of finding the ball around the ground like Barlow done during his Freo days. But Im concerned about his negatives. His field kicking is not the best. His pace is concerning and can he be too big to be a midfielder, he still might grow even more still! I've stood next too him a few times now and im 192cm and im sure he is more 194cm or more. Thats a big lump of a lad! So looking at other roles on the field I dont think he could go hbf due to his kicking and not sure he has the body type that could fill out to be key position. Do you think he could be this years Matheison and slide? I have him pegged as a late 2nd rounder at best.

Cheers KM

P.S

Adrian Dodoro said Essendons priority is filling the HBF / Midfielder in this years draft or via trade. Would you agree with this considering how our list sits.

Stanton
Kelly
Zaharakis
Gleeson
McNiece
Mckenna
Dea
Baguely
Kobe Mutch
Jackson Merrett
Morgan

I agree with much of your analysis with Parish though in parts my view differs slightly.

He's a contested baller. Gets to the right spots and has the size/strength to go in and win a lot of it. He has some Michael Barlow, not a bad comparison.

Field kicking I agree can lack reliability. I find often when he is on the move that is when he struggles most - needing to slow down more, and at other times he'll try to get too much feel on his kicks etc. Sometimes in traffic under pressure he uses it really well and hits his targets which is the element which gives me some optimism with his kicking. So overall it's something I feel he can address and improve to some extent with more the consistency the issue as opposed to a decision making issue which can be harder to address/iron out.

I haven't seen anything from Parish in a second position to have any confidence in him elsewhere either.

For pace, he isn't overly quick, but with more games I'm finding him to be more willing to move with the ball, provide some limited run and carry and also I'm finding his workrate fairly reasonable, often continuing to flow forward after disposing of the ball, looking to get to the next contest.

He's someone I'd pick even early in the second round if needing a midfielder. But in clubland I suspect their evaluation and conclusion will be closer to your own, with projections likely more towards late 2nd - 3rd round or thereabouts. He may well be this years Mathieson as that well performed midfielder who doesn't go as high as some others due to less tricks. Though he may go higher with his height a major asset that could set him apart and add value.

In terms of height as a midfielder. I don't believe in there being a height too tall. With each generation, you're getting key position height players who are genuine midfielders, and ruck height players becoming key position players. If they have the right mix of attributes by position to have an impact, I'd put not height restriction on things. If you're 210cm I wouldn't say no to someone being a midfielder if they can actually practically in game have an impact through there. We're not yet at that extreme stage, but we may start over future seasons have the likes of Joe Daniher (203cm) and Darcy Moore (201cm) pinch-hit through the midfield as Jarryd Roughead has, with both not only super athletic but also special below the knees for that height. I fully expect a continued upward trend towards more versatile extreme talls with several to possess greater ground level ability with everyone these days wanting to play through the guts.

As for Essendon's list needs. It's somewhat diverse with needs in a wide variety of positions. Another key forward of high quality to compliment Daniher for me is the greatest need. A ruckman of quality who can replace Leuenberger when he retires is up there. Otherwise midfielders is the other major priority - primarily inside mids though another outside mid of quality could be considered.

Down back I think Essendon will be ok in terms of general defenders/back flankers. McGrath will be a gun and is already handy. I really like Marty Gleeson (do Essendon fans?) I've just always liked the way he reads the flight and uses the ball. They're my two ideal back flankers for Essendon to build around. Francis I view as best suited to playing down back as a general defender also. Darcy Parish I'd use as a mid who rotates back with his skills making him well suited to the role. Zaharakis can (though I've always liked him more forward). Merrett pretty easily also could if you really wanted another who can rotate back. Tipungwuti can rotate back. Dea can fit down back and play a role. Then you've got the lower tier/developing types who could play roles down back as required to fill up a final spot/provide dept as needed.

Overall I think Essendon's backline is in a good position long-term with your various veterans in Baguley, Myers can play back, Kelly, Goddard and Stanton can all play back when needed. So the depth in my view is there with the young core also impressive over the long term.

Given this, I wouldn't be targeting any general defenders/back flankers etc through the trade period unless there is a particular player who you can out and out steal from under a team. It just doesn't appear to me like a great need, immediate or long term.

I'd just recommend to Essendon, get the best key forward you can get and if you can also get a long term ruckman and a midfielder later on. You're winning. Maybe take a look if there are any super cheap players GWS are dumping this year with not a whole lot in terms of major moves needed.

Knightmare ... just reading a bit you did on Amartey... could you compare him Esava Ratugolea. Amartey sound like he can take a nice high mark.

Amartey is this years equivalent to Ratugolea. Both are raw talents who can take a grab and Amartey can take it up high and take some spectacular marks. It's what he does. Amartey doesn't find a whole lot of the ball, but every time he does get on the end of it, you feel his influence which is what I like about him. He may only get eg. 10 disposals in a game to give you a number. I'll note him 5-6 times most matches which is usually among the better 6-7 in my notes for impact which is pretty decent.

 

[Turbocat]

Amartey is this years equivalent to Ratugolea. Both are raw talents who can take a grab and Amartey can take it up high and take some spectacular marks. It's what he does. Amartey doesn't find a whole lot of the ball, but every time he does get on the end of it, you feel his influence which is what I like about him. He may only get eg. 10 disposals in a game to give you a number. I'll note him 5-6 times most matches which is usually among the better 6-7 in my notes for impact which is pretty decent.

Thanks KM... Geelong do not need another that has extreme high but extreme long shot. We need to find a more likely kid as a KPF , we have SavRat and Buzza , and both could easily be busts ... but without a early pick thats probably difficult.

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare , what do you think of Harry Dear as a trade target for Richmond? Griffiths may have to call it quits, Elton is terrible and Chol is still a little way off off he makes it at all. Dear can pinch in the ruck which is what we usually need with our 2nd forward and he would be alot cheaper in coin than Reid/Schache and cost less in draft picks as well. Then we can pick up 2 more KPP's with our 2 first rounders in the draft really setting us up for the future.

His 3 goals, 7 behinds v South Adelaide is a noteworthy game. If he has more games with 10 scoring shots in a game. It's hard to ignore.

Failing to hit the scoreboard v Central takes a fair bit of the shine off that.

Dear can be someone to keep tracking, but I'd want much more from him than that to consider him as a trade target.

If you want a good key forward via trade, you're either paying an extreme price premium for a Sam Reid or you're getting a key forward who is still productive but near the end - eg. Podsiadly and Waite are two recent examples. Otherwise you're looking towards the draft.

Key forwards are all about talent superiority, and usually as in their draft years you can tell those good ones with those who just aren't up to the standard - looking at a combination of production, points of difference and rate of improvement.

 

[Supersuns]

KM where do you see Kane Farrell landing and what sort of player he could become?

 

[Knightmare]

KM where do you see Kane Farrell landing and what sort of player he could become?

Very good user of the footy. Could be an outside mid or flanker. Possible late pick.

 

[Knightmare]

Weekly AFL Draft wrap is up. Featuring a big man who had a big game:

http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/19244198/knightmares-afl-draft-wrap-sam-hayes-starring-ruck

 

[Soups]

No more Buckley I see KM.

 

[briztoon]

Glad you survived the ESPN redundancies today.

 

[Knightmare]

No more Buckley I see KM.

Still my GOAT on the field in uniform.

In the coaches box I'm not sure there is a current head coach I'd want less.

Given this, and with Nathan a coach rather than player now, and my interest being more in the list management and draft space rather than coaching, I felt Jerry Krause (Chicago Bulls GM from the Michael Jordan x6 championship days) would be a suitable replacement, having taken on several of his talent scouting, drafting and list management processes over the years.

Glad you survived the ESPN redundancies today.

ESPN Australia is growing rather than shrinking to my knowledge. I'd imagine that would relate to ESPN (USA).

 

[briztoon]

ESPN Australia is growing rather than shrinking to my knowledge. I'd imagine that would relate to ESPN (USA).

Good to hear. I imagine ESPN Australia doesn't have the budget to throw wads of cash at different sports for television rights. Might see our Foxtel Sports packages go up in the near future.

 

[ringo1]

Very good user of the footy. Could be an outside mid or flanker. Possible late pick.

That's interesting KM seeing he is AIS and has had big wraps. Do you see him as someone who has dropped significantly? I would've thought he'd be inside the top 40.

 

[briztoon]

OK question time. Have you seen Luke Davies-Uniacke this year and how would you compare and contrast him with James Worpel?

What is the issue with Worpel's kicking? Is it a mechanics issue, or failure to recognise the right option, or is more that he's kicking to clear the ball and not kicking to a specific target, or does he have a genuine problem with accuracy?

Does Luke Davies-Uniacke have the entire package to be a top 5 pick?

 

[ringo1]

OK question time. Have you seen Luke Davies-Uniacke this year and how would you compare and contrast him with James Worpel?

What is the issue with Worpel's kicking? Is it a mechanics issue, or failure to recognise the right option, or is more that he's kicking to clear the ball and not kicking to a specific target, or does he have a genuine problem with accuracy?

Does Luke Davies-Uniacke have the entire package to be a top 5 pick?

What I don't get is that there are knocks on Parish and Worpel about their kicking, yet one is draft able and the other might miss out.!! Surely parish gets picked up as he gets so much of it...and more than Worpel. I'm confused.

 

[Knightmare]

Good to hear. I imagine ESPN Australia doesn't have the budget to throw wads of cash at different sports for television rights. Might see our Foxtel Sports packages go up in the near future.

On you mentioning it I googled it. Had no idea.

Can't say I know anything more than you do anyway.

That's interesting KM seeing he is AIS and has had big wraps. Do you see him as someone who has dropped significantly? I would've thought he'd be inside the top 40.

Academy boys aren't always chosen.

Haven't spoken to anyone about Kane Farrell to know what his stocks are or were but if I did a phantom draft today I'd have him getting picked, but in the second half of the draft.

You may be right about his draft stocks at the present time. It's so early though that things can change dramatically between now and draft day.

OK question time. Have you seen Luke Davies-Uniacke this year and how would you compare and contrast him with James Worpel?

What is the issue with Worpel's kicking? Is it a mechanics issue, or failure to recognise the right option, or is more that he's kicking to clear the ball and not kicking to a specific target, or does he have a genuine problem with accuracy?

Does Luke Davies-Uniacke have the entire package to be a top 5 pick?

Have seen both.

Worpel is a contested bull and tackling machine but lacks anything else. His execution is poor by foot. Weighting isn't right and doesn't get the ball close enough to the mark often enough.

Davies-Uniacke is a more complete player with more weapons. He is increasingly looking like a top five choice and the better midfielder. He was the best for AIS v Carlton reserves, that for me really enhances his value. He's got weapons with his pace, can hit the scoreboard up forward, capable overhead. But now he's really winning the contested ball through the midfield also. He's doing top five stuff at the moment.

 

[briztoon]

Have seen both.

Worpel is a contested bull and tackling machine but lacks anything else. His execution is poor by foot. Weighting isn't right and doesn't get the ball close enough to the mark often enough.

Davies-Uniacke is a more complete player with more weapons. He is increasingly looking like a top five choice and the better midfielder. He was the best for AIS v Carlton reserves, that for me really enhances his value. He's got weapons with his pace, can hit the scoreboard up forward, capable overhead. But now he's really winning the contested ball through the midfield also. He's doing top five stuff at the moment.

Thanks Knightmare. Hoping LDU really steps it up this year and moves himself in to top 5, top 3 contention.

Just one more question. I've read conflicting reports about his speed. Some reports say he isn't quick, while others say he does have pace. Does he have SPP speed?

 

[Knightmare]

What I don't get is that there are knocks on Parish and Worpel about their kicking, yet one is draft able and the other might miss out.!! Surely parish gets picked up as he gets so much of it...and more than Worpel. I'm confused.

Both should be picked.

I wouldn't be shocked if Parish is selected before Worpel.

Worpel has a greater presence and impact around the contest. He's the more established leader. He is favoured to go earlier for now based on past performance.

Parish on the other hand is less bad in several categories (skills slightly more reliable, work rate probably slightly better), taller and arguably has the greater upside on the basis of rate/trend of improvement. Production is up there with Worpel's.

The conversation is valid.

 

[Knightmare]

Thanks Knightmare. Hoping LDU really steps it up this year and moves himself in to top 5, top 3 contention.

Just one more question. I've read conflicting reports about his speed. Some reports say he isn't quick, while others say he does have pace. Does he have SPP speed?

Not SPP explosive, no. He doesn't run and carry like that, at that frequency. More so quick relative to some of the other better mids this year.

 

[ringo1]

Both should be picked.

I wouldn't be shocked if Parish is selected before Worpel.

Worpel has a greater presence and impact around the contest. He's the more established leader. He is favoured to go earlier for now based on past performance.

Parish on the other hand is less bad in several categories (skills slightly more reliable, work rate probably slightly better), taller and arguably has the greater upside on the basis of rate/trend of improvement. Production is up there with Worpel's.

The conversation is valid.

Thanks for your prompt replies KM..its appreciated. Also any chance of pumping out a full draft?

 

[HedgeFund]

Both should be picked.

I wouldn't be shocked if Parish is selected before Worpel.

Worpel has a greater presence and impact around the contest. He's the more established leader. He is favoured to go earlier for now based on past performance.

Parish on the other hand is less bad in several categories (skills slightly more reliable, work rate probably slightly better), taller and arguably has the greater upside on the basis of rate/trend of improvement. Production is up there with Worpel's.

The conversation is valid.

I have only seen them play live together once (TAC Preliminary 2016). Worpel was ordinary at best, Parish far more dangerous with his run, carry and burst from packs.

I know I'm probably sounding like a broken record I can't see what all the fuss is about Worpel.

He doesn't use the ball anywhere near as well as about 50 others I've seen in TAC this year alone. Yep - big kid who can win the inside ball, but either he is a handballing extractor at AFL level, or someone's development coaching staff works very hard on his ball use in 2018 and beyond in order for him to make the grade.

 

[Old navy]

I have only seen them play live together once (TAC Preliminary 2016). Worpel was ordinary at best, Parish far more dangerous with his run, carry and burst from packs.

I know I'm probably sounding like a broken record I can't see what all the fuss is about Worpel.

He doesn't use the ball anywhere near as well as about 50 others I've seen in TAC this year alone. Yep - big kid who can win the inside ball, but either he is a handballing extractor at AFL level, or someone's development coaching staff works very hard on his ball use in 2018 and beyond in order for him to make the grade.

Think the hype around Worpel is that he might develope into that explosive inside mid, wins the contested ball and burst out of the stoppage with his power, Dangerfield Tralor neither are great kicks, but they can certainly slice through heavy traffic.

 

[Knightmare]

Thanks for your prompt replies KM..its appreciated. Also any chance of pumping out a full draft?

I'm guided by ESPN as to when they want a full draft up.

They like me to produce short pieces so they'll like me to probably the week before the draft or thereabouts to post a full draft.

I'll still produce my monthly power rankings (top 20) which I'll expand to a top 30 probably after the Under-18 Championships.

As for phantom drafts I'll again likely wait until after finals, or at least until the end of the home and away season, to allow the ladder to form. Though I'll be giving indications throughout the year as to who is likely to feature around where in the draft as I start to get a feel myself for where players stand in this years draft.

I have only seen them play live together once (TAC Preliminary 2016). Worpel was ordinary at best, Parish far more dangerous with his run, carry and burst from packs.

I know I'm probably sounding like a broken record I can't see what all the fuss is about Worpel.

He doesn't use the ball anywhere near as well as about 50 others I've seen in TAC this year alone. Yep - big kid who can win the inside ball, but either he is a handballing extractor at AFL level, or someone's development coaching staff works very hard on his ball use in 2018 and beyond in order for him to make the grade.

Worpel's game is all aggression, tackling, ball winning, extracting. Geelong seem to be giving him short stints up forward when the score is beyond doubt to see if he add a second position. He'll need to add something extra to his arsenal or he will go lower than expected.

Think the hype around Worpel is that he might develope into that explosive inside mid, wins the contested ball and burst out of the stoppage with his power, Dangerfield Tralor neither are great kicks, but they can certainly slice through heavy traffic.

I don't see that explosion from Worpel. He isn't as slow as some and he can provide a limited burst of speed, but it's nothing at all nearing Danger/Treloar or anyone remotely close to that. He doesn't have that. He's more an inside grunt guy. The more pace he adds though, the more options it gives you.

 

[adsla69k]

I know lots are proposing McGrath as the rising star. And he's had a terrific start to the season. Burton also I'll agree should be in the mix.

While a few years older, if I had to pick the most impressive so far (and I pick it wrong every year so don't bet on my choice), but I'd go Caleb Marchbank. He's on pace for a 150 mark person (per 22 games) averaging 6.8 marks over his first five games. Not that he will be an All-Australian, but those are All-Australian numbers in marks at least, with his intercept marking game highly impressive so far if he keeps going at anything close to his present pace.



Have yet to see the GWS Academy boys in action this season with the U18 Academy Series really quite secretive with no match footage or stats. With none of the games being played in Victoria, I'm hanging out to see the Allies during the U18 Championships, and hopefully many of those will be chosen.



I agree with much of your analysis with Parish though in parts my view differs slightly.

He's a contested baller. Gets to the right spots and has the size/strength to go in and win a lot of it. He has some Michael Barlow, not a bad comparison.

Field kicking I agree can lack reliability. I find often when he is on the move that is when he struggles most - needing to slow down more, and at other times he'll try to get too much feel on his kicks etc. Sometimes in traffic under pressure he uses it really well and hits his targets which is the element which gives me some optimism with his kicking. So overall it's something I feel he can address and improve to some extent with more the consistency the issue as opposed to a decision making issue which can be harder to address/iron out.

I haven't seen anything from Parish in a second position to have any confidence in him elsewhere either.

For pace, he isn't overly quick, but with more games I'm finding him to be more willing to move with the ball, provide some limited run and carry and also I'm finding his workrate fairly reasonable, often continuing to flow forward after disposing of the ball, looking to get to the next contest.

He's someone I'd pick even early in the second round if needing a midfielder. But in clubland I suspect their evaluation and conclusion will be closer to your own, with projections likely more towards late 2nd - 3rd round or thereabouts. He may well be this years Mathieson as that well performed midfielder who doesn't go as high as some others due to less tricks. Though he may go higher with his height a major asset that could set him apart and add value.

In terms of height as a midfielder. I don't believe in there being a height too tall. With each generation, you're getting key position height players who are genuine midfielders, and ruck height players becoming key position players. If they have the right mix of attributes by position to have an impact, I'd put not height restriction on things. If you're 210cm I wouldn't say no to someone being a midfielder if they can actually practically in game have an impact through there. We're not yet at that extreme stage, but we may start over future seasons have the likes of Joe Daniher (203cm) and Darcy Moore (201cm) pinch-hit through the midfield as Jarryd Roughead has, with both not only super athletic but also special below the knees for that height. I fully expect a continued upward trend towards more versatile extreme talls with several to possess greater ground level ability with everyone these days wanting to play through the guts.

As for Essendon's list needs. It's somewhat diverse with needs in a wide variety of positions. Another key forward of high quality to compliment Daniher for me is the greatest need. A ruckman of quality who can replace Leuenberger when he retires is up there. Otherwise midfielders is the other major priority - primarily inside mids though another outside mid of quality could be considered.

Down back I think Essendon will be ok in terms of general defenders/back flankers. McGrath will be a gun and is already handy. I really like Marty Gleeson (do Essendon fans?) I've just always liked the way he reads the flight and uses the ball. They're my two ideal back flankers for Essendon to build around. Francis I view as best suited to playing down back as a general defender also. Darcy Parish I'd use as a mid who rotates back with his skills making him well suited to the role. Zaharakis can (though I've always liked him more forward). Merrett pretty easily also could if you really wanted another who can rotate back. Tipungwuti can rotate back. Dea can fit down back and play a role. Then you've got the lower tier/developing types who could play roles down back as required to fill up a final spot/provide dept as needed.

Overall I think Essendon's backline is in a good position long-term with your various veterans in Baguley, Myers can play back, Kelly, Goddard and Stanton can all play back when needed. So the depth in my view is there with the young core also impressive over the long term.

Given this, I wouldn't be targeting any general defenders/back flankers etc through the trade period unless there is a particular player who you can out and out steal from under a team. It just doesn't appear to me like a great need, immediate or long term.

I'd just recommend to Essendon, get the best key forward you can get and if you can also get a long term ruckman and a midfielder later on. You're winning. Maybe take a look if there are any super cheap players GWS are dumping this year with not a whole lot in terms of major moves needed.



Amartey is this years equivalent to Ratugolea. Both are raw talents who can take a grab and Amartey can take it up high and take some spectacular marks. It's what he does. Amartey doesn't find a whole lot of the ball, but every time he does get on the end of it, you feel his influence which is what I like about him. He may only get eg. 10 disposals in a game to give you a number. I'll note him 5-6 times most matches which is usually among the better 6-7 in my notes for impact which is pretty decent.

So really we need a Sam Hayes type. Which at this stage is pick 5 to 10 for him I guess.