Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2017 Draft Almanac

[Bishop]

Agree with Rankine but Lukosius I don't think would top 2 in this pool. Possibly top 5 but not top 2. I'd take LDU and Rayner over Lukosius, even Brander (actually 50:50)


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Would take Lukosius over all the players listed above without even thinking, absolute star.

 

[Hutchy Jnr]

Would take Lukosius over all the players listed above without even thinking, absolute star.

Opinions differ.
Lukosius I agree is a pure gun, arguably one of the best forwards for the champs and will be top 3 next year. But he wouldn't be ready to go round 1 2018. LDU and Rayner would be, LDU definitely. He needs to add size and strength which LDU and Rayner have. Logical thinking dependent on who has the pick but being Brisbane they want a ready made player (like Mclugagge last year) for round 1 or early rounds for 2018. Lukisous wouldn't physically be ready to go for mine.


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[briztoon]

Opinions differ.
Lukosius I agree is a pure gun, arguably one of the best forwards for the champs and will be top 3 next year. But he wouldn't be ready to go round 1 2018. LDU and Rayner would be, LDU definitely. He needs to add size and strength which LDU and Rayner have. Logical thinking dependent on who has the pick but being Brisbane they want a ready made player (like Mclugagge last year) for round 1 or early rounds for 2018. Lukisous wouldn't physically be ready to go for mine.


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McCluggage isn't a ready made player. Because of his back injury during his top age season he's physically behind in his development. Come on the Brisbane board and all the discussions are that all our draftees still have a few years of development in them compared to the likes of McGrath, Ainsworth or Powell-Pepper.

You don't want to draft a ready made player. You want to draft the player that has the best long term outlook.

 

[Hutchy Jnr]

McCluggage isn't a ready made player. Because of his back injury during his top age season he's physically behind in his development. Come on the Brisbane board and all the discussions are that all our draftees still have a few years of development in them compared to the likes of McGrath, Ainsworth or Powell-Pepper.

You don't want to draft a ready made player. You want to draft the player that has the best long term outlook.

11 games in his first year of AFL? Seems pretty ready for mine. Who's to say LDU and Rayner don't have "long-term outlooks"
If you had LDU, Rayner and Lukosius to pick from this year with your number 1. Who do you go?


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[CaptainMurphy]

I think Coffield

Same

 

[Glen Buterol]

Same

Admittedly I only watched the televised games but from what I saw he impressed me the most. Clean hands, quick turn of speed, evasive in traffic & nice skills. Good size too. I wouldn't be surprised if he goes top 3-5.

 

[jackess]

11 games in his first year of AFL? Seems pretty ready for mine. Who's to say LDU and Rayner don't have "long-term outlooks"
If you had LDU, Rayner and Lukosius to pick from this year with your number 1. Who do you go?


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Ready made has more to do with being physically capable. He has already been rested once and will most likely not play out the season. Just because he's played most of the season in a bottom team doesn't mean he was ready made.

 

[Hutchy Jnr]

Ready made has more to do with being physically capable. He has already been rested once and will most likely not play out the season. Just because he's played most of the season in a bottom team doesn't mean he was ready made.

I said above ready made was being physically ready (strength). Lukosius in comparison to LDU and Rayner, his strength/physical capability isn't as developed.
Maybe Hugh McCluggage was a bad example of it (Powell-Pepper probably a better example) but you still have to have some amount of physical capabilities to play 11 games in your first AFL season, you can't argue that.

 

[briztoon]

11 games in his first year of AFL? Seems pretty ready for mine. Who's to say LDU and Rayner don't have "long-term outlooks"
If you had LDU, Rayner and Lukosius to pick from this year with your number 1. Who do you go?


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It's a very rare KPP that's ready to go first season in.

If I was drafting for long term, I take Lukosius every time. Unless I am loaded with KPP talent. Then I look to auction off the first pick.

 

[Knightmare]

What do you think about Zac Bailey Knightmare?

Really like him.

Kicking concerns me.

But that acceleration, and ball winning. He's worth drafting and someone in the second round I'd consider.

Hi knightmare
Just trying to get this years draft into perspective, would rankine, hill, king twins, Lukosius or any other from next years draft class go in the top 25 if eligible this year

Certainly all top 25. They might all be top 10 this year. Next years draft is a stronger one, or so it looks early days.

Who does brisbane look like they would be taking with pick 1/2?

Cam Rayner is probably the top choice at this stage as something like a Dustin Martin style forward who can in time develop into more a mid. He is for me anyway at this stage a clear number one. Luke Davies-Uniacke may be the alternative considered as more a pure midfielder.

 

[Knightmare]

Opinions differ.
Lukosius I agree is a pure gun, arguably one of the best forwards for the champs and will be top 3 next year. But he wouldn't be ready to go round 1 2018. LDU and Rayner would be, LDU definitely. He needs to add size and strength which LDU and Rayner have. Logical thinking dependent on who has the pick but being Brisbane they want a ready made player (like Mclugagge last year) for round 1 or early rounds for 2018. Lukisous wouldn't physically be ready to go for mine.


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I have to back Bishop up on Lukosius. He'd likewise be my clear without thinking number one if combining this years draft and next years. He is another Nick Riewoldt and has the capacity to be equally dominant which is an incredible thing to say of a junior when I project everyone really to be a poor man's version of such and such or something like (insert average player). His endurance is every bit as special.

He's special and will be one of the best in the game with time.

Balta did a great job the other week on Lukosius. But otherwise he'll be someone you just have to let find the ball up the field and when he gets forward of the centre square, pick him up from there. Skills, endurance, accumulation, scoreboard impact, capable overhead. He's special.

 

[Hutchy Jnr]

I have to back Bishop up on Lukosius. He'd likewise be my clear without thinking number one if combining this years draft and next years. He is another Nick Riewoldt and has the capacity to be equally dominant which is an incredible thing to say of a junior when I project everyone really to be a poor man's version of such and such or something like (insert average player). His endurance is every bit as special.

He's special and will be one of the best in the game with time.

Balta did a great job the other week on Lukosius. But otherwise he'll be someone you just have to let find the ball up the field and when he gets forward of the centre square, pick him up from there. Skills, endurance, accumulation, scoreboard impact, capable overhead. He's special.

Well.... you definitely know your rating of a player is wrong when Knightmare and Bishop team up.
Back to the drawing board for me. Hutchy JNR out


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[Newatthis]

Well.... you definitely know your rating of a player is wrong when Knightmare and Bishop team up.
Back to the drawing board for me. Hutchy JNR out


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I don't think your rating of the player is wrong. I think you are rating him against the performances of the other two. A question to the three of you (Knightmare, Bishop and Hutchy Jnr) out of the three Lukosius, Rayner and LDU if they were in this years draft who is most likely to play next year?
I know it depends on what the club with the number one pick wants but all things being equal, who is the more ready to play AFL?

 

[Knightmare]

Well.... you definitely know your rating of a player is wrong when Knightmare and Bishop team up.
Back to the drawing board for me. Hutchy JNR out


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Always back yourself in in your evaluation. I've made more mistakes over the years following the popular opinion than I have straightening myself up.

My advise with Lukosius is just keep watching him over the next year and come to your own conclusion.

It doesn't mean there won't be someone else who is better. Rayner? Rankine? Maybe someone who isn't top of mind now breaks through later on.

Lukosius is just the guy I'd be banking on, if asked to pick now, as that guy who to my eyes is someone I'd regard a clear number one now and in all likelihood one year from now.

 

[Knightmare]

I don't think your rating of the player is wrong. I think you are rating him against the performances of the other two. A question to the three of you (Knightmare, Bishop and Hutchy Jnr) out of the three Lukosius, Rayner and LDU if they were in this years draft who is most likely to play next year?
I know it depends on what the club with the number one pick wants but all things being equal, who is the more ready to play AFL?

They would all be expected to play in season one.

Rayner and LDU not being key forwards would play first and more often (even in the world Lukosius is one year older).

Rayner probably most impactful and frequently seen, though playing off half-forward as opposed to LDU who would feature as a mid.

 

[Dunny82]

KM you've previously provided a link to TAC stats but are stats from the U18 championships available anywhere? I've noticed that the AFL site doesn't seem to have them this year. I can see the match reports of this years matches and I can't seem to locate another source.

 

[Knightmare]

KM you've previously provided a link to TAC stats but are stats from the U18 championships available anywhere? I've noticed that the AFL site doesn't seem to have them this year. I can see the match reports of this years matches and I can't seem to locate another source.

Nothing publicly available this year.

It's very disappointing.

Only way to get stats is if you're on the email list or you know someone within a club who can provide stats.

 

[HedgeFund]

Ready made has more to do with being physically capable. He has already been rested once and will most likely not play out the season. Just because he's played most of the season in a bottom team doesn't mean he was ready made.

Seriously, who gives a rats if they're ready made or not in their first year?

Judge them in 3-4 years' time (when plenty of the other draftees may already have been cut) and, if they're not just a regular senior player but in the club's best 8-10 players THEN they're probably on track to have the 12-15 year careers we all hope they have.

Too much emphasis is placed IMO on players having an immediate impact. Yes, very good long term players may well do that anyhow, but history shows there's a very long list of players who came into an AFL senior team early, looked the goods, and then dropped away after season 2 or 3.

 

[Knightmare]

Seriously, who gives a rats if they're ready made or not in their first year?

Judge them in 3-4 years' time (when plenty of the other draftees may already have been cut) and, if they're not just a regular senior player but in the club's best 8-10 players THEN they're probably on track to have the 12-15 year careers we all hope they have.

Too much emphasis is placed IMO on players having an immediate impact. Yes, very good long term players may well do that anyhow, but history shows there's a very long list of players who came into an AFL senior team early, looked the goods, and then dropped away after season 2 or 3.

I agree.

You draft based on projected career impact.

Unless you're drafting mature age, their year one impact isn't as relevant. Certainly when comparing key positioners and non-talls. The talls almost never are as ready so it's not as relevant.

 

[briztoon]

Well.... you definitely know your rating of a player is wrong when Knightmare and Bishop team up.
Back to the drawing board for me. Hutchy JNR out


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Mate don't pack it in just because some one disagrees with you.

I've had long discussions with Knightmare over disagreements where each of us view a player, or something Lions list related, and even basketball differently. I still like reading his stuff. I read all the phantom draft posters and form an opinion/ranking on the conglomerate of views. I don't get the chance to watch anywhere nearly enough junior footy to make an informed opinion for myself.

I watched all the televised and streamed U18 Championship games. My over all take away was that many of games were poor. There was a lot poor skills on display, and many of the highly touted players really didn't perform consistently or at all.

I think Rayner has some Dusty Martin like characteristics to his game. It would appear that he wanted to draw a parallel between himself and Dusty with his hair cut. I question if he does have a long term outlook of being able to play through the midfield. There's no doubt he's possibly the most exciting prospect in this years draft, but if I was drafting Rayner, I would be drafting him as a general forward with little expectation of him developing as a 50/50 midfield/forward type.

There doesn't appear to be any Dangerfield, Ollie Wines or Clayton Oliver types in this draft. Nor any McCluggage or Taranto types.

Reports on the Lions board is that one of our senior recruiters is very high on Paddy Dow.

 

[Knightmare]

Mate don't pack it in just because some one disagrees with you.

I've had long discussions with Knightmare over disagreements where each of us view a player, or something Lions list related, and even basketball differently. I still like reading his stuff. I read all the phantom draft posters and form an opinion/ranking on the conglomerate of views. I don't get the chance to watch anywhere nearly enough junior footy to make an informed opinion for myself.

I watched all the televised and streamed U18 Championship games. My over all take away was that many of games were poor. There was a lot poor skills on display, and many of the highly touted players really didn't perform consistently or at all.

I think Rayner has some Dusty Martin like characteristics to his game. It would appear that he wanted to draw a parallel between himself and Dusty with his hair cut. I question if he does have a long term outlook of being able to play through the midfield. There's no doubt he's possibly the most exciting prospect in this years draft, but if I was drafting Rayner, I would be drafting him as a general forward with little expectation of him developing as a 50/50 midfield/forward type.

There doesn't appear to be any Dangerfield, Ollie Wines or Clayton Oliver types in this draft. Nor any McCluggage or Taranto types.

Reports on the Lions board is that one of our senior recruiters is very high on Paddy Dow.

I like to take the angle of - this is my analysis and this is what I think. These are the pros and cons. Make up your own mind and make your own call, as with junior talent particularly, sometimes you're right, sometimes you're wrong.

As a fan of Brisbane, you'll always know more Brisbane than me as you'll no doubt watch them every week. It would be the same as with media people, they would look at things more broadly and have a broader and more complete view of the AFL landscape, but specifics and detailed knowledge of each individual club would not be as high on the whole as hardcore fans of a club. Not that that will stop any of us making up our own minds on players on various club lists etc.

On Rayner, I will disagree with you on his midfield scope. He's terrific up forward as I'd imagine all will agree on. As a midfielder though, he's a genuine 1st possession winner, power ground ball winner, distributes well by hand and also commits defensively with his tackling and second and third efforts there. Endurance can come along and will need to. When it does with time in the system, as per Martin. He can make the transition, showing all those key midfield attributes already. I see him as an 80/20 fwd/mid through his first perhaps 2-4 seasons, then from there I see 50/50 until he's required to become a mostly midfielder, probably similar to Dusty with Richmond.

Dow is really good. There are some good mids this year. I'm not convinced it's a completely empty draft for mids. Rayner, LDU, Cerra. Whether they'll be stars though, perhaps not, but their development among others will need to be tracked through to the end of the year to get the best possible feel as to what their scope to improve is exactly.

 

[Ysaye]

I don't think professional recruiters pick based upon ready to go but what they do do though that lends weight to Hutch Jnrs original conclusion that Lukosius may not go first is a tendency to go for consistency over the identified 95% potential ceiling when sorting the top 10 or so. Partially this is job preservation - there is very little reward if you pick a superstar with a high pick, but if you get a bust it could be curtins.

Lukosius really only killed it in one game in the U18s - yes it was a game that showed that he has massive potential, but he got blanketed in the Vic Metro game and did nothing in the SA game and ended up not getting picked in the U18 AA over a guy who played forward basically for not much more than one game. Rayner on the other hand impacted every U18 game and also has a high ceiling (though probably not as high as Lukosius). If Lukosius was in this draft it wouldn't have suprised me for him to go behind Rayner because he wasn't consistent.

 

[Joao]

I don't think professional recruiters pick based upon ready to go but what they do do though that lends weight to Hutch Jnrs original conclusion that Lukosius may not go first is a tendency to go for consistency over the identified 95% potential ceiling when sorting the top 10 or so. Partially this is job preservation - there is very little reward if you pick a superstar with a high pick, but if you get a bust it could be curtins.

Lukosius really only killed it in one game in the U18s - yes it was a game that showed that he has massive potential, but he got blanketed in the Vic Metro game and did nothing in the SA game and ended up not getting picked in the U18 AA over a guy who played forward basically for not much more than one game. Rayner on the other hand impacted every U18 game and also has a high ceiling (though probably not as high as Lukosius). If Lukosius was in this draft it wouldn't have suprised me for him to go behind Rayner because he wasn't consistent.

Looks like Rayner will be gun but I would want us to take Lukosius every time given the opportunity.

 

[Knightmare]

I don't think professional recruiters pick based upon ready to go but what they do do though that lends weight to Hutch Jnrs original conclusion that Lukosius may not go first is a tendency to go for consistency over the identified 95% potential ceiling when sorting the top 10 or so. Partially this is job preservation - there is very little reward if you pick a superstar with a high pick, but if you get a bust it could be curtins.

Lukosius really only killed it in one game in the U18s - yes it was a game that showed that he has massive potential, but he got blanketed in the Vic Metro game and did nothing in the SA game and ended up not getting picked in the U18 AA over a guy who played forward basically for not much more than one game. Rayner on the other hand impacted every U18 game and also has a high ceiling (though probably not as high as Lukosius). If Lukosius was in this draft it wouldn't have suprised me for him to go behind Rayner because he wasn't consistent.

Lukosius is an underager. So the fact that he could dominate in any game is sensational.

Rayner and LDU weren't dominating this time last year.

Lukosius would have been my choice for one of the AA key forward slots. For mine he was stiff.

 

[SumTingWong]

I have to back Bishop up on Lukosius. He'd likewise be my clear without thinking number one if combining this years draft and next years. He is another Nick Riewoldt and has the capacity to be equally dominant which is an incredible thing to say of a junior when I project everyone really to be a poor man's version of such and such or something like (insert average player). His endurance is every bit as special.

He's special and will be one of the best in the game with time.

Balta did a great job the other week on Lukosius. But otherwise he'll be someone you just have to let find the ball up the field and when he gets forward of the centre square, pick him up from there. Skills, endurance, accumulation, scoreboard impact, capable overhead. He's special.

I do finf it a little baffling when defenders who can negate arguably the best forwards/match winners don't get talked up that highly and are not considered high draft picks. Surely stopping the opposition from winning the game is the starting point?