Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2019 Draft Almanac

[Knightmare]

....

A different view.. but thats good. Does you pov change with Kelly going ?
From my pov geelong need to build their new mid division..Danger , Selwood .even Duncan are not young. We lack any sort of elite quality mid under Duncans age ..now that Kelly is going. Id rather go hard at mids then look at drafting a defender much later ..we have a long history of develop KPD from late picks ..so DeKoning or Hilder seem value. rucks too ..what important is to at least have a young kid they like on our list. Jackson will be gone

Just how affected do you think the first 2 rounds will be with non standard picks ..ie fs , nga and FA comp ..is it fair to say P36 could be in the 40's.. in draft? Henry , Green , Ellis , ..etc

I was fully aware when writing that piece that Kelly was going.

I continue to view Geelong's midfield as a strong point. If it wasn't, Scott Selwood wouldn't be gone.

Jack Steven while hardly the performer Kelly is, is a suitable replacement.

I agree with you that Geelong don't have the youth through their midfield, but I continue to look at the side as a win-now situation and I'd be recommending with Geelong not that far off Richmond to find a good ruckman, bring in Josh Jenkins to support Hawkins and make the front half more potential and I'd be getting a long term key defender with good ones not always easy to find.

As per my post earlier when I addressed Geelong's list needs. I don't see Geelong as having just three list needs. I consider Geelong's general defenders to be mediocre. There could be better general forwards also. Then young mids from an age demographic perspective is another.

Finding midfielders generally is easy and I wouldn't consider it the highest urgency issue in need of the greatest degree of planning at this moment. That can also be done this year through the draft, and it can be done any year because there is always value in all portions of the draft. There are plenty of ready-made mature age mids and there are always the likes of Schoenberg, Byrnes who fall further than they should. Good ones can also be had for cheap during the trade period normally. So it's more something where as long as it doesn't prevent those tall needs being met that I'd go after.

At 36, if Schoenberg isn't there, Byrnes probably is. And there are so many at the bottom of other club lists who would love an opportunity. So it's an easyish fix, but one to do in combination with the other three identified list needs.

Hi Knightmare I don't think we will be going with a skinny KPF 4-5 years away from being useful in that role at AFL level. Fagan, Noble, Swann and Conole have all said very recently that we are after speed and dash off half back, outside/wing mid type and midfield depth, no one within the club has mentioned key position forwards.

Players still available when you took Harrison Jones for us who IMO we would be more likely to take- Dylan Williams, Miles Bergman, Cooper Stephens, Jeremy Sharp, Trent Rivers, Trent Bianco, Elijah Taylor.

Have heard the recent talk from Brisbane also and I think you are right that Brisbane won't go tall.

I'm probably on my own with this view. But Toby Wooller is the only Brisbane tall I consider best suited to playing forward. Hipwood/McStay/Ballenden and all the club's other key position players I view them all as best suited to playing key defence. That's not to say any of them are ineffective as forwards but I can't say I love any of them up front.

 

[Turbocat]

I was fully aware when writing that piece that Kelly was going.

I continue to view Geelong's midfield as a strong point. If it wasn't, Scott Selwood wouldn't be gone.

Jack Steven while hardly the performer Kelly is, is a suitable replacement.

I agree with you that Geelong don't have the youth through their midfield, but I continue to look at the side as a win-now situation and I'd be recommending with Geelong not that far off Richmond to find a good ruckman, bring in Josh Jenkins to support Hawkins and make the front half more potential and I'd be getting a long term key defender with good ones not always easy to find.

As per my post earlier when I addressed Geelong's list needs. I don't see Geelong as having just three list needs. I consider Geelong's general defenders to be mediocre. There could be better general forwards also. Then young mids from an age demographic perspective is another.

Finding midfielders generally is easy and I wouldn't consider it the highest urgency issue in need of the greatest degree of planning at this moment. That can also be done this year through the draft, and it can be done any year because there is always value in all portions of the draft. There are plenty of ready-made mature age mids and there are always the likes of Schoenberg, Byrnes who fall further than they should. Good ones can also be had for cheap during the trade period normally. So it's more something where as long as it doesn't prevent those tall needs being met that I'd go after.

At 36, if Schoenberg isn't there, Byrnes probably is. And there are so many at the bottom of other club lists who would love an opportunity. So it's an easyish fix, but one to do in combination with the other three identified list needs.



Have heard the recent talk from Brisbane also and I think you are right that Brisbane won't go tall.

I'm probably on my own with this view. But Toby Wooller is the only Brisbane tall I consider best suited to playing forward. Hipwood/McStay/Ballenden and all the club's other key position players I view them all as best suited to playing key defence. That's not to say any of them are ineffective as forwards but I can't say I love any of them up front.

I guess we disagree then Km.. Im not telling you something you dont know.. its mids draft. The quality talls will probably be gone anyway by the time we get to P17-P20. Im actually fine with the defence , the clyb must be too if its willing to move Blitz out on to the wing. We have got and will continue to build on our young D.. if that means Gould fine. ..its changed over in age group.

Our forwards ..yes we are needing a young KPF to groom to take over form Hawkins ..Krueger looks promising but we need another.

It the area of our mids that we have little promise imo..we have been so lacking in early picks.. we have no young McLuggage etc..what will we do when Selwood , Danger and Duncan go.. we have to throw picks at it to find a good one who slips thru.

Mature players of all sorts can be found..we have dribbled along with the likes of menegola and fort and henderson... i want to get some youth in that push for a spot ..just like Clark did. Constable is jury out . Miers could be a bragain.

 

[werdna78]

Based on at the time draft rankings to merge them:
1. Lukosius
2. Rankine
3. Smith
4. Walsh
5. Anderson
6. Green
7. Rowell
--
8. M.King
9. Blakey
10. Caldwell
11. B.King
--
12. Flanders
13. Kemp
14. Gould
15. West
16. Duursma
17. Rozee
18. Hately
19. Collier-Dawkins
20. McFadyen
21. Ash
22. Young
23. Robertson
24. Serong
--

*And this year's draft I'm still settling on the order. Flanders/Kemp/Gould/Ash/Young/Robertson/Serong. There is so little separation in that group, I could pick them in any order really and will probably continue moving them around in the leadup to the draft.

Hi knightmare, what do you see McFadyen developing into?

 

[Knightmare]

Hi knightmare, what do you see McFadyen developing into?

I see him as a combo mid/fwd. Serious contested ball winner, but then a marking force close to goal. There is a lot of Nat Fyfe stylistically to him. He's not going to be dominant like that, but he can do many of the same things. If he has a good run with injury, he's one who can really develop into an asset for Brisbane.

 

[Knightmare]

I guess we disagree then Km.. Im not telling you something you dont know.. its mids draft. The quality talls will probably be gone anyway by the time we get to P17-P20. Im actually fine with the defence , the clyb must be too if its willing to move Blitz out on to the wing. We have got and will continue to build on our young D.. if that means Gould fine. ..its changed over in age group.

Our forwards ..yes we are needing a young KPF to groom to take over form Hawkins ..Krueger looks promising but we need another.

It the area of our mids that we have little promise imo..we have been so lacking in early picks.. we have no young McLuggage etc..what will we do when Selwood , Danger and Duncan go.. we have to throw picks at it to find a good one who slips thru.

Mature players of all sorts can be found..we have dribbled along with the likes of menegola and fort and henderson... i want to get some youth in that push for a spot ..just like Clark did. Constable is jury out . Miers could be a bragain.

With Geelong I look at the team through the premiership window theory.

The chance is while Danger is still at the peak of his powers and Selwood and Ablett are around. I'd be going all-in. Kelly is a huge loss towards that, but hopefully the compensation is strong enough where it allows Geelong to make several moves to improve the best 22.

Constable I like and consider to have been limited in opportunities by the quality of Geelong's midfield. He's a tall mid and he's already playing well. I consider him a valuable long term player as I do Clark and Miers. I'd be letting him know he's a key part of the club's future and a priority to be retained given the club's ageing midfield.

Younger midfielders will no doubt be added, but in combination with other types.

 

[Turbocat]

With Geelong I look at the team through the premiership window theory.

The chance is while Danger is still at the peak of his powers and Selwood and Ablett are around. I'd be going all-in. Kelly is a huge loss towards that, but hopefully the compensation is strong enough where it allows Geelong to make several moves to improve the best 22.

Constable I like and consider to have been limited in opportunities by the quality of Geelong's midfield. He's a tall mid and he's already playing well. I consider him a valuable long term player as I do Clark and Miers. I'd be letting him know he's a key part of the club's future and a priority to be retained given the club's ageing midfield.

Younger midfielders will no doubt be added, but in combination with other types.

Losing Kelly is a step too far for my believe threshold.. we need to stop trying to rejig based on a couple of stars.

 

[Knightmare]

Losing Kelly is a step too far for my believe threshold.. we need to stop trying to rejig based on a couple of stars.

The reason I look at now as a good time is I'm not seeing a super team.

Maybe I'm disrespecting Richmond, but they're not like Geelong from 2007-2009 or Hawthorn's premiership sides from the 10s. They're not loaded on that level. They're more like Collingwood's 2010/2011 team. Good enough to win a premiership or premierships but beatable.

For teams after a refresh. I don't see this draft as the draft of that quality where that's going to happen. It's going to take good talent ID to get quality outside the first round or even the top 10-15 to be more realistic.

 

[Turbocat]

The reason I look at now as a good time is I'm not seeing a super team.

Maybe I'm disrespecting Richmond, but they're not like Geelong from 2007-2009 or Hawthorn's premiership sides from the 10s. They're not loaded on that level. They're more like Collingwood's 2010/2011 team. Good enough to win a premiership or premierships but beatable.

For teams after a refresh. I don't see this draft as the draft of that quality where that's going to happen. It's going to take good talent ID to get quality outside the first round or even the top 10-15 to be more realistic.

Rich have a plan and the right team to use it..
Where did you have Sam PP in his draft year ..not sure what that would cost but he could fit both ideas ..
I think Sam DeKoning may even go too early for my taste I have to look at SA for KPD..

 

[Knightmare]

Rich have a plan and the right team to use it..
Where did you have Sam PP in his draft year ..not sure what that would cost but he could fit both ideas ..
I think Sam DeKoning may even go too early for my taste I have to look at SA for KPD..

I rated Powell-Pepper at 12 in 2016 (was drafted 18th). He's underutilised and would be a fit. What's good with him is he could play off half-back until a midfield vacancy opens up. And he has the role versatility through the midfield whether he needs to be a ball winner or play more of a defensive role. My view is he's worth a top 5 pick. He won't cost nearly that, but that's how highly I regard him. From his first season he really moved up my calculations, rating Powell-Pepper at 6 in my re-done 2016 draft. With others rising he would move down a few spots from that but would still be comfortably for me inside that top 10.

De Koning I agree probably goes earlier than he deserves. Hilder and Finlay I consider underrated and like mid-late draft.

 

[GUMBLETRON]

Powell-Pepper's kicking would be an absolute liability off half-back.

 

[Knightmare]

Powell-Pepper's kicking would be an absolute liability off half-back.

He played there a fair bit as a junior. He has the speed and power to do it, though I agree his kicking isn't strong. Even across half-forward he could play some. He's one I see as being capable in more than just one position. But certainly midfield is where he is best used.

 

[cairo tiger]

Sorry mate do u have your view on which club will take whom this year

 

[GUMBLETRON]

Sorry mate do u have your view on which club will take whom this year

First post, first link.

 

[Knightmare]

Sorry mate do u have your view on which club will take whom this year

First round phantom draft: https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/27746624/afl-phantom-draft-goes-where-first-round

 

[Warhorse]

I was fully aware when writing that piece that Kelly was going.

I continue to view Geelong's midfield as a strong point. If it wasn't, Scott Selwood wouldn't be gone.

Jack Steven while hardly the performer Kelly is, is a suitable replacement.

I agree with you that Geelong don't have the youth through their midfield, but I continue to look at the side as a win-now situation and I'd be recommending with Geelong not that far off Richmond to find a good ruckman, bring in Josh Jenkins to support Hawkins and make the front half more potential and I'd be getting a long term key defender with good ones not always easy to find.

As per my post earlier when I addressed Geelong's list needs. I don't see Geelong as having just three list needs. I consider Geelong's general defenders to be mediocre. There could be better general forwards also. Then young mids from an age demographic perspective is another.

Finding midfielders generally is easy and I wouldn't consider it the highest urgency issue in need of the greatest degree of planning at this moment. That can also be done this year through the draft, and it can be done any year because there is always value in all portions of the draft. There are plenty of ready-made mature age mids and there are always the likes of Schoenberg, Byrnes who fall further than they should. Good ones can also be had for cheap during the trade period normally. So it's more something where as long as it doesn't prevent those tall needs being met that I'd go after.

At 36, if Schoenberg isn't there, Byrnes probably is. And there are so many at the bottom of other club lists who would love an opportunity. So it's an easyish fix, but one to do in combination with the other three identified list needs.



Have heard the recent talk from Brisbane also and I think you are right that Brisbane won't go tall.

I'm probably on my own with this view. But Toby Wooller is the only Brisbane tall I consider best suited to playing forward. Hipwood/McStay/Ballenden and all the club's other key position players I view them all as best suited to playing key defence. That's not to say any of them are ineffective as forwards but I can't say I love any of them up front.

Agree with your analysis of geelong. If you look at our points against it looks like we have a good backline. This is not the case as we get no drive at all from any of our players with the exception of Stewart. Tuohy, bews, kolo, Henry, blicavs and o'connor either plodder or offering very little drive.

I do think you are over rating our list a little as well. Sav and Hawkins are fine as key forwards. The rest of our forwards are bed wetters (rohan) or midfielders stuck in the forward line.

I think Clark, Stewart, kolo and blicavs are the only real locks we have in the backline.

Medium general small defenders are easy to find, even quality ones go cheap like newman at Carlton.

I would load up in the draft with general forwards who actually hit the scoreboard

 

[kickthething]

Read with interest the combine results today and the 20m sprint and yo yo performances of Sam Philp clearly at an elite level....how do you think this impacts his draft position if at all?

 

[Knightmare]

Agree with your analysis of geelong. If you look at our points against it looks like we have a good backline. This is not the case as we get no drive at all from any of our players with the exception of Stewart. Tuohy, bews, kolo, Henry, blicavs and o'connor either plodder or offering very little drive.

I do think you are over rating our list a little as well. Sav and Hawkins are fine as key forwards. The rest of our forwards are bed wetters (rohan) or midfielders stuck in the forward line.

I think Clark, Stewart, kolo and blicavs are the only real locks we have in the backline.

Medium general small defenders are easy to find, even quality ones go cheap like newman at Carlton.

I would load up in the draft with general forwards who actually hit the scoreboard

I liked Geelong at the end of 2018 also. Despite finishing 8th at end of H+A, the club had the second highest % in the competition (only club over 135%, all others well below 120%). This year comfortably the highest percentage. So only Richmond has any case as being argued better than Geelong in 2019. And really only in the second half of the season could it be argued Richmond were better, before then it was a very contrasting story.

Geelong's youth is lacklustre. But it just depends on whether a retool is seen as the solution, or whether continuing to add talent to better the club's best 22 is the priority. Given the clear % disparity between Geelong and the other 17 clubs this year. I'd be going for the flag and adding to that best 22.

Go get the best return possible for Kelly. Maybe that's with Fremantle for Darcy, Taberner, Hamling and a pick to secure the club's tall needs.

Geelong could add a number of ready-made mature agers who can slot straight into the best 22. Jye Bolton, Haiden Schloithe, Ben Sokol, Lewis Johnston, Luke Partington. Supplement those mature agers with some underutilised guys from other lists - grab a Jordan Ridley from Essendon. Maybe a Ben Keays from Brisbane. Bring back Josh Walker for another KPP. Bring in Jenkins and Gibbs for nothing. Paul Puopolo if you want some forward pressure. None of those guys will cost you more than late picks. And that's beyond just Jack Steven. Any combination of those guys would help.

Read with interest the combine results today and the 20m sprint and yo yo performances of Sam Philp clearly at an elite level....how do you think this impacts his draft position if at all?

Philp is a handy mid and the results help his case and make his selection mid/late/rookie draft. He's a good ball winner, uses it pretty well and does sometimes show that burst and spread from the contest. I've found in a lot of the games I've watched he hasn't been as heavily involved or influential as I'd like.

Combine results do only have limited value. It's more about explaining what we see out on the field more than anything, and giving a little more context to that more than anything.

 

[Warhorse]

I liked Geelong at the end of 2018 also. Despite finishing 8th at end of H+A, the club had the second highest % in the competition (only club over 135%, all others well below 120%). This year comfortably the highest percentage. So only Richmond has any case as being argued better than Geelong in 2019. And really only in the second half of the season could it be argued Richmond were better, before then it was a very contrasting story.

Geelong's youth is lacklustre. But it just depends on whether a retool is seen as the solution, or whether continuing to add talent to better the club's best 22 is the priority. Given the clear % disparity between Geelong and the other 17 clubs this year. I'd be going for the flag and adding to that best 22.

Go get the best return possible for Kelly. Maybe that's with Fremantle for Darcy, Taberner, Hamling and a pick to secure the club's tall needs.

Geelong could add a number of ready-made mature agers who can slot straight into the best 22. Jye Bolton, Haiden Schloithe, Ben Sokol, Lewis Johnston, Luke Partington. Supplement those mature agers with some underutilised guys from other lists - grab a Jordan Ridley from Essendon. Maybe a Ben Keays from Brisbane. Bring back Josh Walker for another KPP. Bring in Jenkins and Gibbs for nothing. Paul Puopolo if you want some forward pressure. None of those guys will cost you more than late picks. And that's beyond just Jack Steven. Any combination of those guys would help.

Sokol and riccardi are the 2 mature ages I like. If I was geelong I would take 13, 22 and ask for one of cameron/waterman for kelly. Both fill a need and are depth for west coast.

I see 13 as a sweet spot. Grab a Gould/Flanders or Robertson at 13 and potentially another slider such as serong weightman or Mahoney at 15.

Keays is an interesting one. I feel he could become a decent lead up forward who could play the lynch or okeefe role and hit the scoreboard and roll through the middle at times.

The other two from Brisbane I would look at is Cox for a late pick or Ely Smith with a 2nd round pick. Cox has a game that would look better at afl level. Players of his style rarely get much of the ball in the 2nds.

Seems to be a few small forwards with x factor that cam be found late in this draft. Should be interesting to see what geelong do.

 

[maverick001]

I guess we disagree then Km.. Im not telling you something you dont know.. its mids draft. The quality talls will probably be gone anyway by the time we get to P17-P20. Im actually fine with the defence , the clyb must be too if its willing to move Blitz out on to the wing. We have got and will continue to build on our young D.. if that means Gould fine. ..its changed over in age group.

Our forwards ..yes we are needing a young KPF to groom to take over form Hawkins ..Krueger looks promising but we need another.

It the area of our mids that we have little promise imo..we have been so lacking in early picks.. we have no young McLuggage etc..what will we do when Selwood , Danger and Duncan go.. we have to throw picks at it to find a good one who slips thru.

Mature players of all sorts can be found..we have dribbled along with the likes of menegola and fort and henderson... i want to get some youth in that push for a spot ..just like Clark did. Constable is jury out . Miers could be a bragain.

I don't get the knock on Constable, and why it's been floated he might leave. Gets a ton of the footy, wins enough contested ball, neat enough user. Only his second year and it's been pretty hard to crack a midfield that reads Danger, Selwood, Kelly, Duncan, Guthrie, Menegola with Ablett Parfitt and Dahlhaus all spending time through there too.

 

[Turbocat]

I don't get the knock on Constable, and why it's been floated he might leave. Gets a ton of the footy, wins enough contested ball, neat enough user. Only his second year and it's been pretty hard to crack a midfield that reads Danger, Selwood, Kelly, Duncan, Guthrie, Menegola with Ablett Parfitt and Dahlhaus all spending time through there too.

Its chicken and the egg... He is good a certain things but not good at other .. and its those others that the MC rate atm more than him getting the ball. Perhaps he would be more valuable if we had 2 or 3 good young outside types around him. Time will tell

 

[maverick001]

There are plenty of ready-made mature age mids and there are always the likes of Schoenberg, Byrnes who fall further than they should. Good ones can also be had for cheap during the trade period normally. So it's more something where as long as it doesn't prevent those tall needs being met that I'd go after.

At 36, if Schoenberg isn't there, Byrnes probably is. And there are so many at the bottom of other club lists who would love an opportunity. So it's an easyish fix, but one to do in combination with the other three identified list needs.

I know every time there's a smallish inside mid from SA with dark hair we all think Lachie Neale, but Schoenberg's bio really does remind me of him - "wins a lot of footy, is smart in traffic and always manages to release by hand". That could easily be describing Neale, and at 180cm they're similar size too

 

[maverick001]

Its chicken and the egg... He is good a certain things but not good at other .. and its those others that the MC rate atm more than him getting the ball. Perhaps he would be more valuable if we had 2 or 3 good young outside types around him. Time will tell

Ok so not good defensively/on transition, doesn't find or make space......
I also don't get why Selwood was played outside a lot this year. Unless the idea was to give his body a break while TK was around, in preparation for loading him up as an inside mid the next couple of years once TK is gone.

 

[Turbocat]

Ok so not good defensively/on transition, doesn't find or make space......
I also don't get why Selwood was played outside a lot this year. Unless the idea was to give his body a break while TK was around, in preparation for loading him up as an inside mid the next couple of years once TK is gone.

The reason he lasted to 7 in 2006 ..was plenty thought his knee was cooked.. 13 years later..I think he is starting to show signs that its getting on top of him.. so keeping him out of the heavy way ..was an attempt to keep him fitter for when it counted

 

[PorcelainBus]

Sokol and riccardi are the 2 mature ages I like. If I was geelong I would take 13, 22 and ask for one of cameron/waterman for kelly. Both fill a need and are depth for west coast.

I see 13 as a sweet spot. Grab a Gould/Flanders or Robertson at 13 and potentially another slider such as serong weightman or Mahoney at 15.

Keays is an interesting one. I feel he could become a decent lead up forward who could play the lynch or okeefe role and hit the scoreboard and roll through the middle at times.

The other two from Brisbane I would look at is Cox for a late pick or Ely Smith with a 2nd round pick. Cox has a game that would look better at afl level. Players of his style rarely get much of the ball in the 2nds.

Seems to be a few small forwards with x factor that cam be found late in this draft. Should be interesting to see what geelong do.

I want Jeremy Sharp - I'd take him at the earliest pick - has impressed in WAFL. Has pace and good disposal.

 

[Resigned]

Knightmare who do you see Richmond taking early?

Also who are the mature agers who might get picked in this draft?