Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2019 Draft Almanac

[Virgin Dog]

AFL trade, draft and free agency - who your club should target to fill their list needs: https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/27724228/your-club-list-needs

Glad to see you naming Sokol as someone the Dogs should target. I rate him as one of the best mature age prospects available in the draft in the past 5 years (up there with Tim Kelly, potentially even better than what Kelly was in his draft year if you ignore the development since). Would be such an ideal long term replacement for Tory Dickson.

Curious where you rate him in this draft? I'd hope we could snag him with one of our picks in the 40s, but worry that with how well he did in the WAFL grand final, we'd be forced to use Pick 30 (assuming we still have it post-Bruce and Keath trades)

 

[Knightmare]

Glad to see you naming Sokol as someone the Dogs should target. I rate him as one of the best mature age prospects available in the draft in the past 5 years (up there with Tim Kelly, potentially even better than what Kelly was in his draft year if you ignore the development since). Would be such an ideal long term replacement for Tory Dickson.

Curious where you rate him in this draft? I'd hope we could snag him with one of our picks in the 40s, but worry that with how well he did in the WAFL grand final, we'd be forced to use Pick 30 (assuming we still have it post-Bruce and Keath trades)

I'd said Sokol to Dogs for years. It's a piece about list fits and he's the guy. High motor, strongest hands overhead outside the AFL. He'll hit the scoreboard and really give the Dogs another meaningful avenue to goal. Best of all, late or rookie he can be had. I've liked him from his draft year and he's one I haven't relented on.

Anywhere 40 onwards I'd be comfortable taking Sokol if needing another avenue to goal. I just don't think it will cost that much.

On my draft board, while I haven't extended it, I'd probably have him somewhere in the 40s as someone I'd feel comfortable drafting if in need of someone of his type who I need to slip straight into my best 22.

 

[Marcel Proust]

Knightmare where does MRioliJnr rank in regard to the talent the Chargers have next year?

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare where does MRioliJnr rank in regard to the talent the Chargers have next year?

Oakleigh are a pretty incredible group.

Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, Will Phillips, Finlay Macrae and Reef McInness are all clearly ahead and among next year's top end talents. Bailey Laurie, Connor Stone, Fraser Elliott, Giorgio Varagiannis are in the same conversation as other draftabale prospects for 2020.

 

[Marcel Proust]

Oakleigh are a pretty incredible group.

Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, Will Phillips, Finlay Macrae and Reef McInness are all clearly ahead and among next year's top end talents. Bailey Laurie, Connor Stone, Fraser Elliott, Giorgio Varagiannis are in the same conversation as other draftabale prospects for 2020.

MRJ had a decent carnival no?

are the chargers favorites for next year? thanks mate

 

[Knightmare]

MRJ had a decent carnival no?

are the chargers favorites for next year? thanks mate

Chargers would have to be comfortable favourites. MRJ has talent, but Ugle-Hagan, Phillips and Macrae could all go top-5 and McInness could be in the top-10 mix. So Oakleigh are loaded.

 

[Marcel Proust]

Chargers would have to be comfortable favourites. MRJ has talent, but Ugle-Hagan, Phillips and Macrae could all go top-5 and McInness could be in the top-10 mix. So Oakleigh are loaded.

I am liking this new era of Oakleigh being a powerhouse.

 

[Shai]

AFL trade, draft and free agency - who your club should target to fill their list needs: https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/27724228/your-club-list-needs

So disappointed. From someone whose opinion I respect, this is probably the worst, and maybe laziest, forecast I've read.

 

[Knightmare]

So disappointed. From someone whose opinion I respect, this is probably the worst, and maybe laziest, forecast I've read.

Not a fan of the Sean Darcy recommendation? Or Josh Jenkins?

It's not a forecast or prediction. It's my recommendations based on list needs. Who each club should target.

Geelong are in win-now mode and those guys + McAsey through the draft are the most ideal offseason list fits given the club's ageing and weakening tall stocks.

 

[Shai]

Not a fan of the Sean Darcy recommendation? Or Josh Jenkins?

It's not a forecast or prediction. It's my recommendations based on list needs. Who each club should target.

Geelong are in win-now mode and those guys + McAsey through the draft are the most ideal offseason list fits given the club's ageing and weakening tall stocks.

Apologies, poor choice of words. My post wasn't restricted to Geelong but in that regard, there is only 1 of 3 you've named that I would be happy to bring in.

Where are the quality mids to replace the club's ageing and weakening stocks?

 

[Marcel Proust]

Apologies, poor choice of words. My post wasn't restricted to Geelong but in that regard, there is only 1 of 3 you've named that I would be happy to bring in.

Where are the quality mids to replace the club's ageing and weakening stocks?

dont blame OP for cats list management issues

 

[Knightmare]

Apologies, poor choice of words. My post wasn't restricted to Geelong but in that regard, there is only 1 of 3 you've named that I would be happy to bring in.

Where are the quality mids to replace the club's ageing and weakening stocks?

A lot of teams have more than three needs and that applies to Geelong. Geelong are bringing in Steven for a late pick, so Geelong will still be bringing in midfield talent anyway.

Midfield talent can be had any year, just as Brisbane found out adding Lyons as a DFA or Richmond adding Pickett in the mid-season draft.

With Geelong in win-now mode I'd be prioritising those talls first as relatively harder pieces to find. In the younger stocks Constable (may be leaving), Fogarty, Cockatoo (health permitting), Atkins are all ready for midfield opportunities and with Joel Selwood mostly relegated to playing outside. I don't view going hard after midfielders as a high priority at this time. I'd be mostly looking to focus on midfielders only if getting value at this stage in Geelong's situation.

 

[Marcel Proust]

A lot of teams have more than three needs and that applies to Geelong. Geelong are bringing in Steven for a late pick, so Geelong will still be bringing in midfield talent anyway.

Midfield talent can be had any year, just as Brisbane found out adding Lyons as a DFA or Richmond adding Pickett in the mid-season draft.

With Geelong in win-now mode I'd be prioritising those talls first as relatively harder pieces to find. In the younger stocks Constable (may be leaving), Fogarty, Cockatoo (health permitting), Atkins are all ready for midfield opportunities and with Joel Selwood mostly relegated to playing outside. I don't view going hard after midfielders as a high priority at this time. I'd be mostly looking to focus on midfielders only if getting value at this stage in Geelong's situation.

Jack Stevens is going to be handy

 

[Knightmare]

Jack Stevens is going to be handy

A more than handy replacement for Tim Kelly and at only a fraction of the price.

 

[Marcel Proust]

Knightmare


last question, Fraser Turner got a bit of ball in the winning VFL grand final. He averaged a bit over the course of the season and was very bottom age, still 18 now. if he were in this draft where would he go?

I can't put my finger on it but there is something about his game i like, looks a footballer.

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare


last question, Fraser Turner got a bit of ball in the winning VFL grand final. He averaged a bit over the course of the season and was very bottom age, still 18 now. if he were in this draft where would he go?

I can't put my finger on it but there is something about his game i like, looks a footballer.

I'm not as high on Turner as you are. No AFL appearances. Only once in Richmond's VFL bests. He finds the footy but isn't damaging. My view of Turner remains as it was last year. Still one where it remains to be seen whether he can make it at AFL level. He's one I see as a potential role player/component to a team given he is an able runner who gets to the right spots to get his hands on it and is an effective ball user. But I'm not seeing star or difference maker.

Pick 58 is roughly equivalent to pick 50 this year for a rough feel.

 

[Marcel Proust]

I'm not as high on Turner as you are. No AFL appearances. Only once in Richmond's VFL bests. He finds the footy but isn't damaging. My view of Turner remains as it was last year. Still one where it remains to be seen whether he can make it at AFL level. He's one I see as a potential role player/component to a team given he is an able runner who gets to the right spots to get his hands on it and is an effective ball user. But I'm not seeing star or difference maker.

Pick 58 is roughly equivalent to pick 50 this year for a rough feel.

the backline held the giants to 3 goals in the GF

unless you are referring to Turner playing as a winger i dont mind that idea but he is pretty young no?

 

[andleanback]

I am liking this new era of Oakleigh being a powerhouse.

Chargers have been a powerhouse this whole decade. Though Calder and Northern have dropped off massively in recent times, with the amount of elite talent coming out of their programs.

 

[Knightmare]

the backline held the giants to 3 goals in the GF

unless you are referring to Turner playing as a winger i dont mind that idea but he is pretty young no?

Turner can play half-back or wing. They're the two spots to develop him in where he has a chance.

Chargers have been a powerhouse this whole decade. Though Calder and Northern have dropped off massively in recent times. with the amount of elite talent coming out of their programs.

Chargers have been incredible. I've found in talking to Chargers recruiters over the years they'd go see junior footy games and complain watching those in the younger age groups all the time the standouts were the Sandy kids every year. So a lot of what Oakleigh seem to be doing is developing the kids really well, and it's so apparent with how well drilled the group seems to be every year. Their program has been terrific for a long time, though no doubt with so many in the private school system, that would help too with the extra work that goes into those kids.

 

[andleanback]

Turner can play half-back or wing. They're the two spots to develop him in where he has a chance.



Chargers have been incredible. I've found in talking to Chargers recruiters over the years they'd go see junior footy games and complain watching those in the younger age groups all the time the standouts were the Sandy kids every year. So a lot of what Oakleigh seem to be doing is developing the kids really well, and it's so apparent with how well drilled the group seems to be every year. Their program has been terrific for a long time, though no doubt with so many in the private school system, that would help too with the extra work that goes into those kids.

Do you think there has been a massive shift in the amount of elite kids playing in the aps or agsv compared to 10-15 years ago (whether that be scholarship based or not)

 

[Knightmare]

Do you think there has been a massive shift in the amount of elite kids playing in the aps or agsv compared to 10-15 years ago (whether that be scholarship based or not)

It feels a higher proportion of the good ones are coming through the private system increasingly in Vic and specifically in the APS. With each passing year more and more there is a transition towards more of the better prospects are playing for their schools rather than NAB League teams during the school footy season.

I suspect there are more scholarships going around. Carey to name one school before 2010 with Gaff and S.Crocker as far as I'm aware last had Daniel Jackson and Tom Roach drafted in 2003 and before that very few. Then they had the big 2012 draft with Macrae/Viney/Jaksch/Hrovat/Ashby. Moore in 2014. B.Crocker the next year. They've got the top two in this year's draft. It's been a radical transformation and I suggest a change in principal for 2010 meant the introduction of football scholarships (though Gaff and S.Crocker in fairness to them had been around long before that). The other APS schools have felt more like they've incrementally improved/added more footballers whereas Carey have been the one to make the big jump during that period, going from irrelevant to one of the top producers of talent.

AGSV schools probably similar to what they've largely always had and have been far surpassed by their APS counterparts in relevant football talent.

 

[Mofra]

KM, who are the quick small forwards you think will be available in the late draft (or even rookie) range?

I assume the Bulldogs won't have high picks this year post-trade week.

 

[Knightmare]

KM, who are the quick small forwards you think will be available in the late draft (or even rookie) range?

I assume the Bulldogs won't have high picks this year post-trade week.

A good draft for small forwards.

Malcolm Rosas Jr and Kysaiah Pickett if they slide would be optimal late. Both are very quick and instinctive. Ned Cahill and Tyrone Thorne are two others I'd recommend for consideration, Thorne probably more as a rookie though.

 

[andleanback]

It feels a higher proportion of the good ones are coming through the private system increasingly in Vic and specifically in the APS. With each passing year more and more there is a transition towards more of the better prospects are playing for their schools rather than NAB League teams during the school footy season.

I suspect there are more scholarships going around. Carey to name one school before 2010 with Gaff and S.Crocker as far as I'm aware last had Daniel Jackson and Tom Roach drafted in 2003 and before that very few. Then they had the big 2012 draft with Macrae/Viney/Jaksch/Hrovat/Ashby. Moore in 2014. B.Crocker the next year. They've got the top two in this year's draft. It's been a radical transformation and I suggest a change in principal for 2010 meant the introduction of football scholarships (though Gaff and S.Crocker in fairness to them had been around long before that). The other APS schools have felt more like they've incrementally improved/added more footballers whereas Carey have been the one to make the big jump during that period, going from irrelevant to one of the top producers of talent.

AGSV schools probably similar to what they've largely always had and have been far surpassed by their APS counterparts in relevant football talent.

That was along the lines of my thinking with most aps schools looking to find the best talent from around the state to play for them. It has moreorless turned into an arms race to bring in talent on scholarships with schools trying to keep up with each other, so they have a chance to win silverware ( it also looks good having players xyz drafted from your school)

 

[Knightmare]

That was along the lines of my thinking with most aps schools looking to find the best talent from around the state to play for them. It has moreorless turned into an arms race to bring in talent on scholarships with schools trying to keep up with each other, so they have a chance to win silverware ( it also looks good having players xyz drafted from your school)

Yeah, it's a prestige thing. And with the fees the APS schools charge. They can afford their sports scholarship students and then use any of those drafted as promoting tools later on. So Carey will presumably be able to say - 'top 2 draft picks came from here.' If you want education, opportunities and the best football development on top of that. This is where you should go. And it's the same with any of those schools when they get a good number of their kids drafted, or achieving success in whatever field.

The only APS school I haven't noticed have much of a draft presence over the years is Wesley with only Toby Greene and then more recently Adam Cerra drafted from Wesley to my knowledge. And they're a huge school with the two large campuses. With a new principal taking over from the former principal who was there for 15 years, it will be interesting to see if they start to bring in more football talent or offer football scholarships.