Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2019 Draft Almanac

[PMBangers]

That'd be a really odd move considering one of Young or Flanders will still be there, plus a Green bid. Unless you're implying they trade down

Depends if Crows see Flanders as more of a mid-fwd or permanent forward, I know if be picking Stephens if I were the crows

 

[Virgin Dog]

Depends if Crows see Flanders as more of a mid-fwd or permanent forward, I know if be picking Stephens if I were the crows

I rate Stephens, I just feel that they should be picking on best available and not needs, especially with a pick that early. Trade down and I can understand it more, but at Pick 4 (or 5 if Green bid comes before) it just seems like a really odd decision to go for Stephens ahead of Flanders/Young. Even Ash should be taken earlier based on best available imo

 

[PMBangers]

I rate Stephens, I just feel that they should be picking on best available and not needs, especially with a pick that early. Trade down and I can understand it more, but at Pick 4 (or 5 if Green bid comes before) it just seems like a really odd decision to go for Stephens ahead of Flanders/Young. Even Ash should be taken earlier based on best available imo

Fair enough, I rate Stephens at 5 atm so don't think it's a massive reach either way, but you're correct in going best available at that pick

 

[Virgin Dog]

Fair enough, I rate Stephens at 5 atm so don't think it's a massive reach either way, but you're correct in going best available at that pick

Yeah I can understand picking him if they rate him at 5, but only if they rate him that high. I had him at 14 myself, but also know how volatile the rankings can be. Stocker being the perfect example (Carlton had him 7th, other clubs closer to 20)

 

[GapInIkonPark]

Paying a player $600k+ per year, is a first round pick any day of the week, unless the player is being pushed out of their club. Eg. Jake Stringer.

You targeted a player for a premium price and then refused to pay the trade assets required.



Note:
The bit about other clubs is nonsense, as they didn’t reach an impasse with any other club. Just the usual media bull. My understanding is that other clubs have complained about the early draft picks, not about GC’s trading strategy (only Carlton would complain about that).

Additional:
I don’t know any non-Carlton fan who thinks that GC was unreasonable. I will not post further on this, in this thread. Happy for you to quote me elsewhere BUT this is Knightmare’s awesome thread, let’s leave it alone.

On your logic, Richmond should have got a first round pick for Brandon Ellis.

I come to this thread to read KM’s opinion on potential draft picks as I am sure you and others do.

If KM wants to venture an opinion on his thread as to what Martin is worth, what GC and Carlton or any other club should do, whether it is fair or not, then it is open for discussion. And if someone wants to quote Twomey who got the details of what GC wanted from Carlton for Martin wrong, then that deserves correction.

 

[FAITH]

How certain is this? Will they bid on Green first?

Outside the big 3, he is top of our list.
Hamish has had a hard one for him all year.

 

[FAITH]

I rate Stephens, I just feel that they should be picking on best available and not needs, especially with a pick that early. Trade down and I can understand it more, but at Pick 4 (or 5 if Green bid comes before) it just seems like a really odd decision to go for Stephens ahead of Flanders/Young. Even Ash should be taken earlier based on best available imo

No offence but most of you Vic's tend to pump up the Vic boys more than non Vic boys.
In no way are Ash, Flanders and young ahead of Stephens.

 

[Virgin Dog]

No offence but most of you Vic's tend to pump up the Vic boys more than non Vic boys.
In no way are Ash, Flanders and young ahead of Stephens.

I'm not from Victoria, so it's definitely not that. I rate a few of the non-Vic guys ahead of Stephens, including Sharp, Gould, Green (obviously) and Henry. Although in reality I have Sharp basically dead even with Stephens (I'd just pick Sharp ahead of Stephens if I were the Dogs purely because of needs. On ability, they're about equal for me)

 

[FAITH]

Then youre biased against Stephens

In all seriousness, Stephens is up there with the best, shown against men in Sanfl all year to be a gun.

 

[Warhorse]

SAFL form doesn't always seem to translate into AFL form imo. I personally dont rate stephen that high

 

[briztoon]

SAFL form doesn't always seem to translate into AFL form imo. I personally dont rate stephen that high

Exhibit 1: James Aish.

 

[Obeanie1]

Taking Martin in the PSD is what I'd be doing in Gold Coast's situation.

Carlton made no serious attempt to secure Martin during the trade period and with Martin not yet eligible as a free agent, Gold Coast should take Martin with that first pick and force Carlton or another club to trade for Martin next year to ensure some return, whether or not Martin decides to sit out the season. And you'd hope he has the competitive edge not to sit. At the end of the day, it's very easily justifiable because Gold Coast can say - 'at the end of the day we value Jack more highly than Carlton do with Carlton's from out position insulting to Jack and insulting to our club for someone of his calibre.'

Even in Melbourne's situation. If they can fit Jack under their salary cap. They should be taking him if Gold Coast pass. They need the speed and Jack would be a perfect fit for them and as a freebie in the PSD would be an incredible get.

*As a general concept, the direction I'm coming from is my view is I don't think there is a place any more for the PSD. If a player wants to leave their club, my view is they should be forced to go through the national draft and enter that lottery process where they could end up anywhere if they want to get away from their present club that badly, prior to being eligible as a free agent if a trade cannot be agreed upon.

Sun's taking Martin in the psd means they will pay someone $700kd who doesnt want to be there and in all likelihood would take it easy and not get injured so he gets traded in 2020.

In effect paying $700k to get a late 1st round pick.

 

[briztoon]

Sun's taking Martin in the psd means they will pay someone $700kd who doesnt want to be there and in all likelihood would take it easy and not get injured so he gets traded in 2020.

In effect paying $700k to get a late 1st round pick.

Or paying $700k to get band 1 compo next year, which could mean they have pick 1 and pick 2 in next years draft.

 

[Holden Hillbilly]

SAFL form doesn't always seem to translate into AFL form imo. I personally dont rate stephen that high

Similar form to Connor Rozee. That's why he will be top 10.

 

[Obeanie1]

Or paying $700k to get band 1 compo next year, which could mean they have pick 1 and pick 2 in next years draft.

If the Sun's draft him in the psd don't they need to accept his terms though?

Martin would put up terms such as 3 or 4 years on $700k hence he wouldn't be a free agent in 12 months time.

 

[weltschmerz]

On an entirely unrelated note, Knightmare, who are some people you rate who’ll probably go third round or later, besides Biggy?

 

[Knightmare]

Sun's taking Martin in the psd means they will pay someone $700kd who doesnt want to be there and in all likelihood would take it easy and not get injured so he gets traded in 2020.

In effect paying $700k to get a late 1st round pick.

For the Suns because they've got such little established talent who should be on anything that I don't see utilisation of salary cap space as being a concern with Martin.

It's a case of if he plays. Bonus.

If he doesn't, value can be acquired for him the following offseason a bit like when Cam McCarthy sat out a season and GWS got a decent return for him.

On an entirely unrelated note, Knightmare, who are some people you rate who’ll probably go third round or later, besides Biggy?

Ryan Byrnes in my view though is this year's most underrated. He probably goes late second round onwards, but for mine he's a genuine top-20 prospect. Harry Schoenberg is another mid I feel similarly is undervalued as another I'd pick inside my top-20, but probably goes in a similar range to or just ahead of Byrnes.

Those two + Biggy are those I feel are being most blatantly underrated in this pool. Some of my other favourites I may keep for the Bigfooty Phantom Draft when my picks come around. I'll produce an article probably next week covering some others I feel are underrated and should be getting more attention.

 

[GapInIkonPark]

For the Suns because they've got such little established talent who should be on anything that I don't see utilisation of salary cap space as being a concern with Martin.

It's a case of if he plays. Bonus.

If he doesn't, value can be acquired for him the following offseason a bit like when Cam McCarthy sat out a season and GWS got a decent return for him.

Surely it is not a feel good message for the kids and other GC players.
He is out of contract and has said both last year and this year he doesn’t want to be there.

I understand GC want to show it’s no longer a pushover with Lukosius potentially out of contract after next season snd the go home factor, however I think hanging onto Martin to make a ‘statement’ would be rather counterproductive to fostering an environment where other players want to stay.

 

[Warhorse]

Similar form to Connor Rozee. That's why he will be top 10.

Plays more like toupas and aish. Slightly above average pace for a wing, good but not great kick, one sided and question marks over his contested game. Does he have the tricks to overcome his short comings at all level? Maybe? I see him as a polec level player at absolute best. If i had a top 10 pick i wouldnt be comfortable selecting hin

 

[Knightmare]

Surely it is not a feel good message for the kids and other GC players.
He is out of contract and has said both last year and this year he doesn’t want to be there.

I understand GC want to show it’s no longer a pushover with Lukosius potentially out of contract after next season snd the go home factor, however I think hanging onto Martin to make a ‘statement’ would be rather counterproductive to fostering an environment where other players want to stay.

I look at it purely as a currency/asset equation.

Let Martin walk for nothing, no compensation received. Trade him for something next year, something received.

 

[windows1]

Plays more like toupas and aish. Slightly above average pace for a wing, good but not great kick, one sided and question marks over his contested game. Does he have the tricks to overcome his short comings at all level? Maybe? I see him as a polec level player at absolute best. If i had a top 10 pick i wouldnt be comfortable selecting hin

This post is wrong in multiple different ways.

1. He is dual sided not one sided
2. 2.97 for 20m is not ‘slightly above average’ it’s ‘way Above average’. I’d say top 20 percent if not more.
3. Polec can not play inside. Stephens definitely can
4. When plays on ball (rather than wing) he vacuums loose ball gets (contested ball).

I was critical of him.....until I actually bothered to watch him.

 

[GapInIkonPark]

I look at it purely as a currency/asset equation.

Let Martin walk for nothing, no compensation received. Trade him for something next year, something received.

It is not entirely about the ‘asset’, occasionally it is about the ‘fit’. I think you should have a good hard think about the likely affect on the culture GC hopes to build should Martin is forced to ‘stay’ another year when he does not want to be there. And it would be a particularly bad look for the AFL.

What if Geelong refused to trade Kelly because WC were not giving a top 5 pick as well as say a late first round pick and a second rounder, if Brisbane had not released Beams, and if St Kilda refused to let Steven go? All 3 went for unders.

 

[Warhorse]

This post is wrong in multiple different ways.

1. He is dual sided not one sided
2. 2.97 for 20m is not ‘slightly above average’ it’s ‘way Above average’. I’d say top 20 percent if not more.
3. Polec can not play inside. Stephens definitely can
4. When plays on ball (rather than wing) he vacuums loose ball gets (contested ball).

I was critical of him.....until I actually bothered to watch him.

I don't see him as dual sided.

By position (wing/outside mid) his speed is slightly above average.

His contested game needs to improve dramatically to be serviceable at AFL level. One or 2 good games does not make him good at the contested ball.

We disagree which is fine. I would not be comfortable taking him early. Others see him as a top 5. Just shows how even that 4-15 is in this draft

 

[Knightmare]

It is not entirely about the ‘asset’, occasionally it is about the ‘fit’. I think you should have a good hard think about the likely affect on the culture GC hopes to build should Martin is forced to ‘stay’ another year when he does not want to be there. And it would be a particularly bad look for the AFL.

What if Brisbanehung onto Beams and St Kilda refused to let Steven go?

Beams would have remained with Brisbane and Steven would have retired.

It's like in any sport. If a player is contracted or not eligible for free agency, clubs have every right to retain them. And if restricted free agents, they have that right to match any bids.

Teams have to make their own decisions and do what is in their best interests just as players do.

If a club is unable to facilitate a trade for a player, that is up to them, and under our draft process if an uncontracted player wishes not to sign with their present club the current system in place is they choose whether they wish to enter the national or preseason draft.

If Gold Coast made their intentions clear that they would sign Martin if he entered the preseason draft, that would force Martin into the national draft for any one of the 18 clubs to take him.

It's not like Carlton would select Martin with pick 9, so under that scenario it would be up to another club as to whether they would select Martin before Carlton's next selection, or perhaps it would force Carlton to trade up in order to acquire Martin.

 

[GapInIkonPark]

Beams would have remained with Brisbane and Steven would have retired.

It's like in any sport. If a player is contracted or not eligible for free agency, clubs have every right to retain them. And if restricted free agents, they have that right to match any bids.

Teams have to make their own decisions and do what is in their best interests just as players do.

If a club is unable to facilitate a trade for a player, that is up to them, and under our draft process if an uncontracted player wishes not to sign with their present club the current system in place is they choose whether they wish to enter the national or preseason draft.

If Gold Coast made their intentions clear that they would sign Martin if he entered the preseason draft, that would force Martin into the national draft for any one of the 18 clubs to take him.

It's not like Carlton would select Martin with pick 9, so under that scenario it would be up to another club as to whether they would select Martin before Carlton's next selection, or perhaps it would force Carlton to trade up in order to acquire Martin.

Thanks for your time and effort in providing your reply KM.

If GC said it intended to take Martin in PSD, I believe the AFL would ‘persuade’ GC not to. It would be a particularly bad look for the AFL and GC.