Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2019 Draft Almanac

[GUMBLETRON]

Has a player ever been re-drafted by the team they just actively left? Not counting players cut and re-taken for list reasons, obviously.

 

[Chris25]

This post is wrong in multiple different ways.

1. He is dual sided not one sided
2. 2.97 for 20m is not ‘slightly above average’ it’s ‘way Above average’. I’d say top 20 percent if not more.
3. Polec can not play inside. Stephens definitely can
4. When plays on ball (rather than wing) he vacuums loose ball gets (contested ball).

I was critical of him.....until I actually bothered to watch him.

What I find funny is that if Stephens actually played U18s instead of league football, then people would be saying how amazing a contested ball winner he is for his size. In a way, he's a victim of being too good because he didn't get to beat up on other 18 year olds who won't get drafted. He'd be top 3 if he played in the NAB League.

 

[Warhorse]

What I find funny is that if Stephens actually played U18s instead of league football, then people would be saying how amazing a contested ball winner he is for his size. In a way, he's a victim of being too good because he didn't get to beat up on other 18 year olds who won't get drafted. He'd be top 3 if he played in the NAB League.

He didn't beat up anyone when playing for sa

 

[Chris25]

He didn't beat up anyone when playing for sa

Well, he did beat up on Tom Green and the Allies in the one game he played inside.

 

[windows1]

Have just watched another Tom Green game. How GC don’t bid on him at two is totally beyond me. How Melb wouldn’t at 3 same. He’s a certain top 3 in the comp contested possession player. His ability to stand up in a tackle and hit running players in space by hand is amazing. I love Patrick Cripps. This kid is SO similar it’s not funny.

He’s the best player in this draft.

 

[Knightmare]

Has a player ever been re-drafted by the team they just actively left? Not counting players cut and re-taken for list reasons, obviously.

Don't believe it's happened yet.

St Kilda had the Luke Ball issue in 2009 when they were unable to agree upon a deal with Collingwood and Ball because there was no free agency at the time just walked into the National Draft, with Collingwood using the pick 30 they had offered to St Kilda to acquire him. St Kilda having pick 32 were not in a position to bring Ball back.

What I find funny is that if Stephens actually played U18s instead of league football, then people would be saying how amazing a contested ball winner he is for his size. In a way, he's a victim of being too good because he didn't get to beat up on other 18 year olds who won't get drafted. He'd be top 3 if he played in the NAB League.

I can't help but think you're neglecting Green by placing Stephens ahead of him. Other than Rowell or Anderson, I'd have a very hard time arguing for anyone else ahead of let alone in the same conversation with Green.

Green is the best pure stoppage player I've ever seen come through the junior ranks. For the same age/stage I don't have anyone else in the conversation.

I like Stephens as a prospect and I feel he's going to have a good career. But for me he's part of a very even 4-15 group on my own board where I'd say anyone in that range can be justified ahead/behind any other from that group.

 

[Knightmare]

Have just watched another Tom Green game. How GC don’t bid on him at two is totally beyond me. How Melb wouldn’t at 3 same. He’s a certain top 3 in the comp contested possession player. His ability to stand up in a tackle and hit running players in space by hand is amazing. I love Patrick Cripps. This kid is SO similar it’s not funny.

He’s the best player in this draft.

For me it's a toss-up between Rowell/Anderson/Green.

I initially had Green/Anderson/Rowell. But I've transitioned to liking Anderson ahead of Green because he not only brings the midfield game but is as damaging as any in the pool outside of perhaps only Flanders forward of centre. Then Rowell doing what he did during the finals, he's simply ridiculous and with that better inside/outside blend is slightly the better footballer.

They're all terrific.

As it happens, I didn't notice your response before making my previous post about Green being clear top-3. But I feel you're absolutely justified in drawing the conclusion that Green is the best in the pool. At what he does, you won't find better in this pool.

 

[maaaaaate]

What I find funny is that if Stephens actually played U18s instead of league football, then people would be saying how amazing a contested ball winner he is for his size. In a way, he's a victim of being too good because he didn't get to beat up on other 18 year olds who won't get drafted. He'd be top 3 if he played in the NAB League.

Victorians will always get higher billing over anyone else because that's where all the draft 'experts' are. The pedestal that the NAB League is put on is truly baffling because there is some incredible top level talent but the depth of the league falls off dramatically quickly. Points towards why the Victorian top prospects rarely have a 'bad' game.

 

[windows1]

For me it's a toss-up between Rowell/Anderson/Green.

I initially had Green/Anderson/Rowell. But I've transitioned to liking Anderson ahead of Green because he not only brings the midfield game but is as damaging as any in the pool outside of perhaps only Flanders forward of centre. Then Rowell doing what he did during the finals, he's simply ridiculous and with that better inside/outside blend is slightly the better footballer.

They're all terrific.

As it happens, I didn't notice your response before making my previous post about Green being clear top-3. But I feel you're absolutely justified in drawing the conclusion that Green is the best in the pool. At what he does, you won't find better in this pool.

He could be the best contested player in the AFl in a few years. He’s that good. Not sure the other two can be the best or even top few at any elite category. Don’t mean to disparage them - I just think Green is on another level.

 

[Knightmare]

He could be the best contested player in the AFl in a few years. He’s that good. Not sure the other two can be the best or even top few at any elite category. Don’t mean to disparage them - I just think Green is on another level.

As a pure stoppage player we're in agreement. There is no one in Green's class. And having rated Green as the best in the draft at the start of the season I don't blame you for having him there. He may well become the best at his craft and I have him becoming among those top few, though the likes of Cripps at an even greater height I think he'll have trouble passing by realistically.

The arguments for Rowell and Anderson are that they're good at a wider variety of things and impact games in more ways. Ultimately as with any players they each bring different things to table and it's weighing up who brings a combination of tools that will impact winning most and do the most to drive your team towards the ultimate success.

 

[foodles05]

Yeah I can understand picking him if they rate him at 5, but only if they rate him that high. I had him at 14 myself, but also know how volatile the rankings can be. Stocker being the perfect example (Carlton had him 7th, other clubs closer to 20)

How many times have you seen him play? Have you seen him outside the Champs? Have you seen him live outside the champs or even in the champs? Not a critique at all just wondering what your basing you talent id on in his case?

 

[foodles05]

Exhibit 1: James Aish.

Baseless comment really cause neither does NAB League, WAFL or any other form.

 

[foodles05]

I don't see him as dual sided.

By position (wing/outside mid) his speed is slightly above average.

His contested game needs to improve dramatically to be serviceable at AFL level. One or 2 good games does not make him good at the contested ball.

We disagree which is fine. I would not be comfortable taking him early. Others see him as a top 5. Just shows how even that 4-15 is in this draft

What are you basing your opinions on? How many games have you seen him play? If you honestly think that "by position" his speed is only slightly above average then you either don't understand football, speed or the meaning of average

 

[Virgin Dog]

How many times have you seen him play? Have you seen him outside the Champs? Have you seen him live outside the champs or even in the champs? Not a critique at all just wondering what your basing you talent id on in his case?

I don't live in his state so base it purely on match videos and highlight reels. To be honest, my 7-14 are pretty close, I just have him well outside the top 6 which I think are clearly above the rest.

That top 6 being Rowell, Anderson, Green, Young, Flanders and Kemp

 

[foodles05]

I don't live in his state so base it purely on match videos and highlight reels. To be honest, my 7-14 are pretty close, I just have him well outside the top 6 which I think are clearly above the rest.

That top 6 being Rowell, Anderson, Green, Young, Flanders and Kemp

I do and great kid so probably a little biased but against his own age group he crushes it playing the middle. One of the better clearance players I've seen in the sense that he doesn't win that much contested footy but he wins incredibly damaging clearances. As a bottom ager last year in the prelim against south his team was down by 7 goals to nothing at half time getting smashed in the middle by Melboure's number 1 pick last year Tom Sparrow. Norwood had Kennerly and two other draftees so no mugs but couldn't get it done. Coach put Stephens in the middle from the wing. Had 14 touches, 7 clearances and 1 goal 3 in the quarter to take his team from 7 goals down to even at 3 quarter time.

He also played on the wing for the champs and it was only because they didn't have anyone else to play wing but had a bunch of inside mids. As has been mentioned on here in the only game he played in the middle had numerous clearances and about 25 touches. Another thing I love is unlike some of the other top mids he is a goal kicking mid. Not a mid who rests forward and kicks goals but a mid who bursts out of the centre runs to 45 and kicks goals. Very few players in the AFL can do that.

In the end I would say it is close like you suggest but:

He's just a better footballer than Flanders. So much cleaner and much better by foot. Not quite as powerful but better around.

He's more damaging that Serong. Much more explosive with his short running and one of the better repeat gut runners in the draft.
Not as demonstrated in the contest and probably won't ever be as good a contested player. However he's capable of doing what Serong can to a certain extent and Serong will never be capable of doing what Stephens can.

Young is a totally different player and I find them hard to line up.

Ash: Not sure where his improvement comes from. I really rate him and particularly like his some of his disposal at full pace in the champs but just not sure he has much upside.

In the end I am probably bias like I said but I can't see any of those guys outside DS winning a Brownlow. I think DS has that talent and upside.

 

[JennyTalia]

I do and great kid so probably a little biased but against his own age group he crushes it playing the middle. One of the better clearance players I've seen in the sense that he doesn't win that much contested footy but he wins incredibly damaging clearances. As a bottom ager last year in the prelim against south his team was down by 7 goals to nothing at half time getting smashed in the middle by Melboure's number 1 pick last year Tom Sparrow. Norwood had Kennerly and two other draftees so no mugs but couldn't get it done. Coach put Stephens in the middle from the wing. Had 14 touches, 7 clearances and 1 goal 3 in the quarter to take his team from 7 goals down to even at 3 quarter time.

He also played on the wing for the champs and it was only because they didn't have anyone else to play wing but had a bunch of inside mids. As has been mentioned on here in the only game he played in the middle had numerous clearances and about 25 touches. Another thing I love is unlike some of the other top mids he is a goal kicking mid. Not a mid who rests forward and kicks goals but a mid who bursts out of the centre runs to 45 and kicks goals. Very few players in the AFL can do that.

In the end I would say it is close like you suggest but:

He's just a better footballer than Flanders. So much cleaner and much better by foot. Not quite as powerful but better around.

He's more damaging that Serong. Much more explosive with his short running and one of the better repeat gut runners in the draft.
Not as demonstrated in the contest and probably won't ever be as good a contested player. However he's capable of doing what Serong can to a certain extent and Serong will never be capable of doing what Stephens can.

Young is a totally different player and I find them hard to line up.

Ash: Not sure where his improvement comes from. I really rate him and particularly like his some of his disposal at full pace in the champs but just not sure he has much upside.

In the end I am probably bias like I said but I can't see any of those guys outside DS winning a Brownlow. I think DS has that talent and upside.

Good post. I am probably biased too but I really hope that crows jump with their first pick

 

[Warhorse]

What are you basing your opinions on? How many games have you seen him play? If you honestly think that "by position" his speed is only slightly above average then you either don't understand football, speed or the meaning of average

Only seen a few games being west based. By position as in compared to others that play on the wing. His tricks won't work as well at AFL level. I rate him as solid and think at our first pick he would be ok.

Being west coast I am also biased. I think the WAFL form translates much better to afl when compared to SAFL. I guess I have been let down over the last 15 Years with youngsters playing SAFL and never kicking on despite being highly rated

I do and great kid so probably a little biased but against his own age group he crushes it playing the middle. One of the better clearance players I've seen in the sense that he doesn't win that much contested footy but he wins incredibly damaging clearances. As a bottom ager last year in the prelim against south his team was down by 7 goals to nothing at half time getting smashed in the middle by Melboure's number 1 pick last year Tom Sparrow. Norwood had Kennerly and two other draftees so no mugs but couldn't get it done. Coach put Stephens in the middle from the wing. Had 14 touches, 7 clearances and 1 goal 3 in the quarter to take his team from 7 goals down to even at 3 quarter time.

He also played on the wing for the champs and it was only because they didn't have anyone else to play wing but had a bunch of inside mids. As has been mentioned on here in the only game he played in the middle had numerous clearances and about 25 touches. Another thing I love is unlike some of the other top mids he is a goal kicking mid. Not a mid who rests forward and kicks goals but a mid who bursts out of the centre runs to 45 and kicks goals. Very few players in the AFL can do that.

In the end I would say it is close like you suggest but:

He's just a better footballer than Flanders. So much cleaner and much better by foot. Not quite as powerful but better around.

He's more damaging that Serong. Much more explosive with his short running and one of the better repeat gut runners in the draft.
Not as demonstrated in the contest and probably won't ever be as good a contested player. However he's capable of doing what Serong can to a certain extent and Serong will never be capable of doing what Stephens can.

Young is a totally different player and I find them hard to line up.

Ash: Not sure where his improvement comes from. I really rate him and particularly like his some of his disposal at full pace in the champs but just not sure he has much upside.

In the end I am probably bias like I said but I can't see any of those guys outside DS winning a Brownlow. I think DS has that talent and upside.

Flanders is so capable as a forward and really can tear a game apart in a small space of time. I see him as a top 5 talent. Has genuine forward craft.

Just shows how even this draft is after the 1st couple of picks.

Where do you rate taheny?

 

[Yoda_]

Obviously my Bombers are in the market for a key forward, what happpened to Charlie Dean later in the year? You had him pegged as someone worth watching (9 goals in first two NAB League games) but quickly fell away. He was named amongst the bests in games he hadn't even hit the scoreboard so interesting if he had been transitioned to defence?

The other kid someone mentioned worth keeping an eye out for was Josh Smith from Gippsland power. Any more info on either of these kids? Or even anyone else worth looking out for late draft/rookie types? We have picks 64/65/66 and two rookie draft picks.

 

[Knightmare]

I do and great kid so probably a little biased but against his own age group he crushes it playing the middle. One of the better clearance players I've seen in the sense that he doesn't win that much contested footy but he wins incredibly damaging clearances. As a bottom ager last year in the prelim against south his team was down by 7 goals to nothing at half time getting smashed in the middle by Melboure's number 1 pick last year Tom Sparrow. Norwood had Kennerly and two other draftees so no mugs but couldn't get it done. Coach put Stephens in the middle from the wing. Had 14 touches, 7 clearances and 1 goal 3 in the quarter to take his team from 7 goals down to even at 3 quarter time.

He also played on the wing for the champs and it was only because they didn't have anyone else to play wing but had a bunch of inside mids. As has been mentioned on here in the only game he played in the middle had numerous clearances and about 25 touches. Another thing I love is unlike some of the other top mids he is a goal kicking mid. Not a mid who rests forward and kicks goals but a mid who bursts out of the centre runs to 45 and kicks goals. Very few players in the AFL can do that.

In the end I would say it is close like you suggest but:

He's just a better footballer than Flanders. So much cleaner and much better by foot. Not quite as powerful but better around.

He's more damaging that Serong. Much more explosive with his short running and one of the better repeat gut runners in the draft.
Not as demonstrated in the contest and probably won't ever be as good a contested player. However he's capable of doing what Serong can to a certain extent and Serong will never be capable of doing what Stephens can.

Young is a totally different player and I find them hard to line up.

Ash: Not sure where his improvement comes from. I really rate him and particularly like his some of his disposal at full pace in the champs but just not sure he has much upside.

In the end I am probably bias like I said but I can't see any of those guys outside DS winning a Brownlow. I think DS has that talent and upside.

On Stephens he's better on the outside than Flanders/Serong. Inside, he's not winning it contested like those guys but can rack it up with them and do more around the ground.

Where Flanders creates separation by comparison to Stephens is his work forward of centre. He and Anderson, and I rate Flanders even a fraction higher forward of centre are the two best in this pool.

Serong similarly is better forward of centre than Stephens and is just as good there as he is through the midfield, though for mine is in roughly the same conversation rather than clearly ahead as some others may believe.

Obviously my Bombers are in the market for a key forward, what happpened to Charlie Dean later in the year? You had him pegged as someone worth watching (9 goals in first two NAB League games) but quickly fell away. He was named amongst the bests in games he hadn't even hit the scoreboard so interesting if he had been transitioned to defence?

The other kid someone mentioned worth keeping an eye out for was Josh Smith from Gippsland power. Any more info on either of these kids? Or even anyone else worth looking out for late draft/rookie types? We have picks 64/65/66 and two rookie draft picks.

I gave Dean a mention in my 10 key questions piece.

Inconsistency and lack of speed are the two issues.

Dean has played some in defence, but a lot forward also. Only in the latter portion was he used mostly in defence.

Smith is a big lad but a bit like Hudson Garoni and Hugo Munn last year, and both even were arguably a little better than Smith, it's unlikely he gets picked.

 

[THE_GUN]

Sun's taking Martin in the psd means they will pay someone $700kd who doesnt want to be there and in all likelihood would take it easy and not get injured so he gets traded in 2020.

In effect paying $700k to get a late 1st round pick.

Dont believe any player will take it easy playing football deliberately
It will effect how he is viewed and his future contract , $700k for a 1st round pick is well worth it if you have the cap space but you need to consider it another way also

Lukosius,Rankine,King,Ballard,Bowes etc all having an extra ytear of development and the influx of senior players as well as 4 talented kids with 2 looking like ready to go they could have a good year and martin decides he might want to stay ? Never know

 

[TryAnHit]

Have just watched another Tom Green game. How GC don’t bid on him at two is totally beyond me. How Melb wouldn’t at 3 same. He’s a certain top 3 in the comp contested possession player. His ability to stand up in a tackle and hit running players in space by hand is amazing. I love Patrick Cripps. This kid is SO similar it’s not funny.

He’s the best player in this draft.

Would bid on him at 1... basically would think they would get him... would be far to much to match for gws...

Would love to see this

 

[Yojimbo]

Would bid on him at 1... basically would think they would get him... would be far to much to match for gws...

Would love to see this

Picks 1 & 2 are AFL approved picks for life long buddies Rowell and Anderson, (What if they both leave AFL ?)
the draft officially starts at three and Melb would be silly not to take Hayden Young, Adelaide don't need
another tractor in their garage. Green reeks of Sydney, but not GWS.

 

[FAITH]

I've had green at 2 slightly behind rowell for a while now, and I would be extremely disappointed if we didn't bid on him at 4 if a available.

 

[Yojimbo]

I've had green at 2 slightly behind rowell for a while now, and I would be extremely disappointed if we didn't bid on him at 4 if a available.

The curious man in me wants to see what GWS do if there is no bid before their pick 6 given their next pick
is pick 40, it's not reality of course. A Liam Henry bid at pick 8 is another more possible dynamic.

 

[Mutineer]

The curious man in me wants to see what GWS do if there is no bid before their pick 6 given their next pick
is pick 40, it's not reality of course. A Liam Henry bid at pick 8 is another more possible dynamic.

Adelaide WILL positively bid on Tom Green [if the Dees don't] if we still hold pick 4, you only need look at Hamish Ogilvie's draft history to see the odds favour that happening.