His playing weight is probably less. He's simply of the genetic makeup that is very sensitive to retaining fluid and weight gain. Certainly not got Ben Hart genes, more like Cosgrove genes. He'll be fine.
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Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2019 Draft Almanac
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His playing weight is probably less. He's simply of the genetic makeup that is very sensitive to retaining fluid and weight gain. Certainly not got Ben Hart genes, more like Cosgrove genes. He'll be fine.
- May 6, 2007
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QUOTE="Freoforever86, post: 63357955, member: 146448"]KM - any idea who GWS target if they move to 3? Would they reach for Jackson there as you mentioned them looking at him with 6.[/QUOTE]
The more you look at it, the reason for moving into the top 3/4 for GWS is to skip ahead of a likely bid for Green.
If that’s the case, definitely look to take Jackson, even at 3/4/5. Kid looks like being the best ruckman in the game in time.
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The more you look at it, the reason for moving into the top 3/4 for GWS is to skip ahead of a likely bid for Green.
If that’s the case, definitely look to take Jackson, even at 3/4/5. Kid looks like being the best ruckman in the game in time.
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Just another reason why I want Dodoro to go. Never does his due diligence
Riccardi fits us perfectly
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Why was he delisted in the first place?
curnow inferno
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hi km, i know you've answered similar question earlier in the year but now that the season is finished and you have had the whole year to follow these blokes closely, can you please rank the following blokes in terms of your prediction on how good their afl career will be based only on what they did pre-draft: rowell, anderson, greene, lukosius, rankine, b.smith, walsh. cheers!
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Seeing 192-106 is a refreshing set of measurements compared to the usual 186-78.
I wish Gould well wherever he goes.*
*Not West Coast please as the Hurn comparisons will never die like I crowbarred here.
I wish Gould well wherever he goes.*
*Not West Coast please as the Hurn comparisons will never die like I crowbarred here.
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The way some people talk about him, you would think it’s the 2nd coming of Jesus. Didn’t get a national combine invite so there isn’t massive interest from most clubs. Will still be there in the 50s and it would be silly to burn a early 30s pick on him.
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Hi everybody.
It's Green, not Greene.
Thanks.
It's Green, not Greene.
Thanks.
Riewoldt , Lynch , Balta and Callum Jones developing well
He is a decent player that plays well at VFL level but his kicking has let him down at times , Would not be a bad rookie selection and may do well in a different organisation
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Knightmare - I have been following closely all season and admire how you are not afraid to follow your convictions on a number of players - it seems that there is a tendency for many to just follow the consensus and I appreciate how you tend to speak your mind.
I have recently had further look at last 2 years nationals through game vision and then individual edits as well as many other games and just wanted to spark some conversation regarding my findings. I really wanted to start a chat on some players who I see as at this stage being over hyped and under rated by some here and get some chat going on some individuals.
Over hyped:
Dylan Stephens – I think he will be a good AFL player but the comparisons I read regarding him I see as way off the mark. He is an excellent runner and deliverer in space – and that it is my key observation – in space. His contested numbers are really low which is a concern and I just don’t think under extreme pressure his ball handling is anything special.
Cody Weightman – I have read your thoughts KM on comparing him to Jack Mahony and I totally agree. Yes Cody is exciting but he is woefully inconsistent across games and I see him as very one dimensional. Against WA (4 touches) - and also very little impact until late against Metro. Tackle numbers are low and is only a small forward so not much versatility. Have read with interest that Dogs are keen at 13 on him – I just don’t get it as Bevo publically states that he needs players who can play in multiple positions.
Miles Bergman – Firstly his Nationals were solid but I cannot have him in first round discussions at all. Low numbers for a mid both at Nationals and Dragons and alarmingly poor games when he is ‘off’. I also know that has always seemed to have ‘niggles’ that often restrict his training and I know that is concerning a number of Clubs.
Finn Maginness – We all know that father-sons are hyped so no surprise to see his name here. Yes Combine results were great but more interested in his football results. My concern with Finn again is not that he is not an AFL footballer – he will be – I just don’t see how we are looking at him so high on lists. He played as full time mid for Metro with these numbers – 15, 18, 13 & 27. His last 5 Dragons games were 2 wins and 3 losses – the 3 losses he had 17, 14 and 13 disposals. I agree with Hawks on this – the bid should come after their pick 30.
Under valued:
Luke Jackson – I have watched over and over vision of Luke. I am absolutely convinced as he is going to be terrific AFL player. Great athlete and competitive beast – Luke should be right up there at the top of draft lists. Yes he is a touch small for AFL ruckman – but he has the x factor to get around that. If I am Freo and can get Jackson and Robertson with 7 and 10 I do it without thinking. Watch Luke after the ruck contest – his follow up work is amazing. I honestly cannot believe he is not talked about more – Crows should jump at pick 4 – this is a boy who hasn’t played heaps because of basketball and will only get better and better. In this crop I am only drafting Luke and Comben as rucks and maybe Bryan but late – so there are not a lot around.
Jack Mahony – Only 3 players played 2 games for Vic Metro in 2018 as bottom agers – Rowell, Anderson and Mahony and they were all great. Since then Mahony has been cruelled by injury with broken collarbone in 2018 and broken hand in 2019. If you look at his individual edits they tell the story about Jack – he is so clean and creative with ball in hand. Mahony is the impact player who despite his size (178 not 176) can play anywhere – inside/outside mid, high or small forward. Watch his SA edits – his ball use is a class above as a mid. Against Allies more of the same as mid in Q2 and then forward late. The more I look at this crop the more I like Liam Henry and Jack Mahony as the more versatile smalls who can play mid as well as forward. Mahony, Bianco and H Young are best kicks in this draft.
Dylan Williams – Yes his year has been poor and injury riddled but Dylan is all class. I have definite concerns about his workrate as his running is really poor – but he just gets job done. My lasting memory from his 2019 was his game against Casey Demons for Australia – early in that game when all the Demons were playing and Australia was struggling Dylan was outstanding. He is an elite talent with great versatility and definitely should not be forgotten. Am hearing that Port very keen on him…
Jackson Mead - I know father/sons get a bit boring but I do think Jackson has been undervalued by many – so sorry to Port here. I think his improvement over last year has been rapid and I really like his competitive nature and improved ball use.
Cooper Stephens – Combine put Cooper’s name in lights again. Like a number of others on this list injury has cruelled him but should be seen as an early option as inside mid. Great size and fierce competitor and good leader. Played Nationals for Country in 2018 and was very good at TAC in 2018. Cooper should be pushing up boards now.
Emerson Jeka – This is controversial I know as he has struggled badly last couple of years. What he is though is a fantastic athlete for his size that I think will hold him in good stead. I think he will thrive in AFL system as Jets hasn’t been great for him. We have said how this isn’t a talls draft so I think he is definitely someone I would look at earlier than maybe others…
Anyway just my thoughts….
I have recently had further look at last 2 years nationals through game vision and then individual edits as well as many other games and just wanted to spark some conversation regarding my findings. I really wanted to start a chat on some players who I see as at this stage being over hyped and under rated by some here and get some chat going on some individuals.
Over hyped:
Dylan Stephens – I think he will be a good AFL player but the comparisons I read regarding him I see as way off the mark. He is an excellent runner and deliverer in space – and that it is my key observation – in space. His contested numbers are really low which is a concern and I just don’t think under extreme pressure his ball handling is anything special.
Cody Weightman – I have read your thoughts KM on comparing him to Jack Mahony and I totally agree. Yes Cody is exciting but he is woefully inconsistent across games and I see him as very one dimensional. Against WA (4 touches) - and also very little impact until late against Metro. Tackle numbers are low and is only a small forward so not much versatility. Have read with interest that Dogs are keen at 13 on him – I just don’t get it as Bevo publically states that he needs players who can play in multiple positions.
Miles Bergman – Firstly his Nationals were solid but I cannot have him in first round discussions at all. Low numbers for a mid both at Nationals and Dragons and alarmingly poor games when he is ‘off’. I also know that has always seemed to have ‘niggles’ that often restrict his training and I know that is concerning a number of Clubs.
Finn Maginness – We all know that father-sons are hyped so no surprise to see his name here. Yes Combine results were great but more interested in his football results. My concern with Finn again is not that he is not an AFL footballer – he will be – I just don’t see how we are looking at him so high on lists. He played as full time mid for Metro with these numbers – 15, 18, 13 & 27. His last 5 Dragons games were 2 wins and 3 losses – the 3 losses he had 17, 14 and 13 disposals. I agree with Hawks on this – the bid should come after their pick 30.
Under valued:
Luke Jackson – I have watched over and over vision of Luke. I am absolutely convinced as he is going to be terrific AFL player. Great athlete and competitive beast – Luke should be right up there at the top of draft lists. Yes he is a touch small for AFL ruckman – but he has the x factor to get around that. If I am Freo and can get Jackson and Robertson with 7 and 10 I do it without thinking. Watch Luke after the ruck contest – his follow up work is amazing. I honestly cannot believe he is not talked about more – Crows should jump at pick 4 – this is a boy who hasn’t played heaps because of basketball and will only get better and better. In this crop I am only drafting Luke and Comben as rucks and maybe Bryan but late – so there are not a lot around.
Jack Mahony – Only 3 players played 2 games for Vic Metro in 2018 as bottom agers – Rowell, Anderson and Mahony and they were all great. Since then Mahony has been cruelled by injury with broken collarbone in 2018 and broken hand in 2019. If you look at his individual edits they tell the story about Jack – he is so clean and creative with ball in hand. Mahony is the impact player who despite his size (178 not 176) can play anywhere – inside/outside mid, high or small forward. Watch his SA edits – his ball use is a class above as a mid. Against Allies more of the same as mid in Q2 and then forward late. The more I look at this crop the more I like Liam Henry and Jack Mahony as the more versatile smalls who can play mid as well as forward. Mahony, Bianco and H Young are best kicks in this draft.
Dylan Williams – Yes his year has been poor and injury riddled but Dylan is all class. I have definite concerns about his workrate as his running is really poor – but he just gets job done. My lasting memory from his 2019 was his game against Casey Demons for Australia – early in that game when all the Demons were playing and Australia was struggling Dylan was outstanding. He is an elite talent with great versatility and definitely should not be forgotten. Am hearing that Port very keen on him…
Jackson Mead - I know father/sons get a bit boring but I do think Jackson has been undervalued by many – so sorry to Port here. I think his improvement over last year has been rapid and I really like his competitive nature and improved ball use.
Cooper Stephens – Combine put Cooper’s name in lights again. Like a number of others on this list injury has cruelled him but should be seen as an early option as inside mid. Great size and fierce competitor and good leader. Played Nationals for Country in 2018 and was very good at TAC in 2018. Cooper should be pushing up boards now.
Emerson Jeka – This is controversial I know as he has struggled badly last couple of years. What he is though is a fantastic athlete for his size that I think will hold him in good stead. I think he will thrive in AFL system as Jets hasn’t been great for him. We have said how this isn’t a talls draft so I think he is definitely someone I would look at earlier than maybe others…
Anyway just my thoughts….
Knightmare
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Serong has a strong body. He is only 179cm, but weighed in at 88kg at the combine. He can help inside and forward.
Schoenberg I like in the 20s for value as one of this year's best ball winning mids. Cooper Stephens as a bigger body also would be terrific there.
Lack of a good young ruckman. Pittonet is depth. De Koning is a relieving ruck.
Jackson is one of a group Carlton may consider. Kemp/Stephens/Robertson/Ash/Weightman among some of those believed on Carlton's shortlist depending on availability.
Knightmare
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Callum Moore has been in the AFL system for four years after being selected as an overager.
Didn't exceed 4 marks in any of his nine games this year. Not among Richmond's best in any of those. Only 12 goals from 9 games.
None of that screams someone who should be retained.
An even group with little separation but have settled on:
Lukosius
Rankine
Smith
Walsh
Rowell
Anderson
Green
I can't say I follow what others in the media are saying, I tend to find a lot of the analysis from other media people is shallow and lacking the detail where there isn't anything for me as a regular u18 watcher to get out of it, so I can't say I read anyone else's stuff unless alerted to something. I just like watching the games myself and drawing my own conclusions on who is best so that I don't miss out on some hidden gems, or don't get sucked into guys who can't play who others may like too much. I feel like more of my judgment errors over the years have come from others being on a hype train, and I felt like I had to slightly weigh that hype into my thoughts and not completely dismiss players I didn't rate to the level I otherwise would, and 9/10 times it works against me it feels like so it's a practice I try more and more to move away from.
On D.Stephens as a contested ball winner. My finding is he's more a loose ball winner than a hard ball winner. And that's largely due to size. His contested numbers in the SANFL Reserves were good and at League level also suitable. So he's not allergic to the contested ball. My view is a bit like an Andrew Gaff he can win enough of his own ball where he isn't a liability, but like Gaff, he's best suited on the outside.
Weightman I agree with you on that he's rated too high. He's a terrific athlete and has tricks, so I like him as a prospect. His U18 Champs was good but his NAB League stuff was underwhelming and as a small I'd like his numbers to be higher than that, particularly to justify as a possible first rounder. For me he's suitable for selection from the second round.
Bergman again I agree on isn't quite a first rounder either. I have him in my 30 and may have him inside my 25. Terrific mark. Ultra long kick. He has some weapons. But as you say he doesn't find a lot of it and doesn't get the quantity of ball or play with the consistency for me to feel like I could justify using a first round choice on him. I feel like that with more after the first 10 though in fairness.
Maginness is one who has grown on me. I didn't love him before the U18 Champs, but his second half of the season where I saw he could win it through the mids but then also be a marking target forward of centre, I like the weapons he has and I feel he can improve on his current numbers. Agree his numbers are too low, if he was getting better numbers in both U18s and NAB League I'd have him inside my top 10, but given his numbers are more good but not great I have him more around 15 on my own board.
Jackson at 4 I too feel is too early, though you're not the only one I've heard say this over the past few months. If he was taller and in the low-mid 200cm range I'd feel more comfortable taking him early as he does have those elements to him that suggest he'll be an excellent ruckman. I agree with you on his competitiveness. That's what he brings. And he'll follow up and win it/tackle. Fine tap ruckman. He'll need to start finding more of it outside, improve his skills. But my view is he'll become a good number one ruckman. Probably not great, but a good one.
Mahony I agree on and share the view he should be spoken about more than he is. He remains inside my top 30 and as said before I'm not even sure Weightman is better. So clean, classy and capable. Feels like he could just fit in no dramas at AFL level. He'll be a value pick anywhere outside the top 30.
Williams I like also and still have just inside my top 20. Anything after 20 he represents strong value. He's a lot better than his 2019 play and can come good.
With Mead it depends on where he is rated. Anywhere 15-30 is suitable for me. If he dropped outside the top 30 he's a bargain. But I think he probably goes early 20s which is about right for me.
C.Stephens I and many others like also. I think he probably goes 15-25ish. If not for injury he could be top 10. Anyone rating him outside their top 25 I'd strongly suggest review his 2018 play. I'd have him in my top 20 if he was a better kick, but with his kicking and explosive run, he deserves strong consideration anywhere from around pick 15 for me.
Jeka isn't one I rate. Have never even rated him as someone I'd take inside the first two rounds, and that includes all through last year when people were raving about him. Good athlete and a strong on the lead, but just can't get his hands on it or hit the scoreboard enough to be viable. As a KPP unless producing, I can't say I have any interest as a combination of production/talent/rate of progression tend historically to be the key variables in assessing whether KPPs come along and Jeka doesn't tick the production or rate of progression boxes, and if failing in two of those categories, I just can't justify them as selections.
Jabster50
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Mahony is a ripper, very smart footy brain, clean hands and can kick a goal. Should be rated higher.
Knightmare
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Agree with you Jabster. A precise assessment of Mahony's game.
I've had Mahony in my top 20 for most of the season. Fair to say he is firmly planted inside my top 30 power rankings. Looks a good piece.
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Where would you rank Rozee on this list after seeing this year and getting a chance to redraft.
Also what do you think a dream draft for Port would be this year?
- Nov 22, 2015
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If I am Carlton’s list manager, I am going for Stephens, Kemp or Robertson if I keep Pick 9. Murphy and Ed Curnow towards the end of their careers.
I am backing in Kreuzer, Pittonet and De Koning, and second rucks Casboult and McKay. That’s enough ruckmen to carry and not have an unbalanced VFL side. Trade in a ruck when Kreuzer is done or draft one then.
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We have a constant and ongoing discussion on the Essendon board about how many ruckmen.
#1 - The guy who is the best ruckmen at the club
#2 - A guy who should be pushing for the #1 ruck spot or can fill in if/when the #1 is out injured/suspended
#3 - A developing guy who should be pushing the #2 guy by the end of that season. Getting 50:50 minutes at VFL level with more on offer if #1 is out.
#4 - Long term prospect who should be filling in for minutes here and there and understands his place in the landscape.
What may be confusing is the talls on your list. McKay, De Koning, Casboult are all not true ruckmen. But they could/should be good enough to play a primary position and fill in the ruck role at AFL level if required.
Gonna guess you’re using Stephens numbers from SANFL league against men instead of his rare games against under 18’s here in Sa where he racked up insane numbers..
Knightmare
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I may do a re-done power rankings from last year's draft class over the offseason, so I won't reveal at this time and rush an order.
Rozee is definitely in that top group and has moved well up in my calculations. That top group unordered also consists of Lukosius/Rankine (if healthy)/Smith/Walsh/Blakey and the King's. Caldwell I still like and have on the edge of that group, though being on GWS and their midfield not having many opportunities to offer probably just outside of that.
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