Draft Expert Knightmare's 2021 Draft Almanac

[GUMBLETRON]

yeah and it usually sinks to the bottom...

Eat more vegetables.

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare

As always thanks for all your work educating supporters

Just a couple of questions more related to GWS from your article

Every AFL club's list needs ahead of 2022

With eyes firmly turning to the AFL free agency, trade, and draft periods, ESPN expert Chris Doerre has analysed every club's list needs ahead of a massive offseason.

www.espn.com.au

You don't see a need for a KPD with Buckley and Keefe likely to miss at least half the season each returning from ACL's and Keefe and Davis likely to retire at the end of 2022?
The recruitment of Swans Reid would be good but I dont see the need with the club likely to go with a 2 ruck policy for next year with none proven and unlikely to play the whole season and if needed for certain games or reasons Sproule can come in to play a fwd/ruck role (Not in the class of Reid) and I dont see how the club fits him in from a salary cap point of view

Callaghan is the perfect fit for the club with his outside game the potential to complement the inside game already on the list

What would you think the trade value of Finlayson would be without having actual amounts of his salary but thinking it is between 300-400k
I would think a pick around 50 would be around the mark, higher if a couple of clubs are interested

The Giants I view really broadly as having a good list and not being far off contending. It's just an issue of having a lot of the same types, but then a complete lack of others to have a list balance that can go all the way. So a lot of it is just filling those list needs. Adding that outside speed and class, improving the defence, finding that crumbing forward, finding someone good across half-forward, improving upon those key position players and finding more good ones - with Taylor the lone star.

I do see a need for a key defender for the Giants, just like I'd say for Geelong, they also need more midfielders. For this task it was just choosing 3 needs I'd like to see addressed. It's a need either this offseason or next offseason I'd address, and a mature ager or opposition talent would be the way to do it.

Some GWS fans may disagree, but with it sounding like Riccardi will return, I'm interested to see whether he can be the CHB and be that solution. He had that incredible VFL game with 40d and 19m, and just needs the time to adjust to the position. From an attribute perspective, he has the leap, has the strong mark and really attacks the ball aerially like few in the competition can, so that's something if allowed to be in position to be that primary intercepter where his game can be in my view maximised. So on that basis, I would unless there is a no brainer available eg. a Leek Alleer who would be a great complement to Taylor available at a pick where he represents strong value, I'd see if Riccardi can be that guy.

With Reid being out of contract and a 30-year-old who isn't in hot demand and has an injury history, he wouldn't contractually be a heavy burden or an expensive get I can't imagine. He's hasn't in the past two seasons played to a standard where he's deserving of big money. He's someone I look at, even if GWS do go with a two ruck setup (I'd personally go Preuss as #1 if healthy and Reid #2) as someone who at least improves the front half and replaces Finlayson and at least for me whether he's a direct Finlayson replacement or a relieving ruck I view as a slight upgrade. If Flynn is playing well though and keeps improving, he's a viable #2 behind Preuss and could then let Reid go forward.

Finlayson I view as being worth a late 2nd round pick (let's call it pick 35), though given he's someone who appears to want out so badly, something 40-50 may be closer to the mark to what you realistically get as a return.

North need something to look forward too
I hope for the their sake he becomes the star that they hope he will be before requesting a trade back to SA.
You know go home factor and all, might turn him into a couple of 1sts in a few years.
In all seriousness I hope he goes alright for them. And if you believe everything said he is going to be a franchise player who will take them too the promised land. And maybe they are right but is a whole lot of commentary on a junior

If North Melbourne become a good team, and they're actually taking some steps towards it with Lynch if he joins as a player and MacPherson is added to the front half. The key to retaining interstate talent tends to be developing into a winning team. Those from interstate weren't lining up to leave Geelong, Hawthorn or Richmond when they were enjoying those years as the competition's top side.

We can look at Brisbane currently and see players aren't lining up to leave v previously when they weren't competitive, such a large portion of the list wanted out.

Winning is that secret sauce.

Knightmare I also really like Jack Avery. Wondering if you feel he may be able transition into a hard running tall winger style role? If he could, he would make a very good defensive intercepting wingman?

An interesting vision re. Avery as a tallish winger. With the way he reads the game, intercepts and how good he is 1v1, I have him firmly pigeonholed as a defender and something like a Tom Stewart or Jordan Ridley without the kicking being on that level.

On a wing, I'm not sure what that special sauce with Avery would be that would see him be a best-22 player for a club.

Hey KM

Who should Sydney take with their first pick

In my list needs piece on ESPN, Matthew Roberts was my suggestion as a best available. Outside the top-10, for me he represents a great deal of value. He's a year one ready mid and can also rotate forward.

 

[iAsbestos]

Hi Knightmare,

Joel Trudgeon a chance to get drafted if so whereabouts? does have amazing numbers surprisingly no one is talking about him

In seven NAB League games the 19-year-old averaged 29.6 disposals (fourth overall), 10 tackles (first overall), six marks, one goal :O

 

[Knightmare]

Hi Knightmare,

Joel Trudgeon a chance to get drafted if so whereabouts? does have amazing numbers surprisingly no one is talking about him

In seven NAB League games the 19-year-old averaged 29.6 disposals (fourth overall), 10 tackles (first overall), six marks, one goal :O

Amazing stats, but a late/rookie chance and one I'd advocate in that range.

He's an in an under type who wins it in close, dishes by hand and tackles well around the ball. He'll get you 40d, and you'll think he had it 20-25 times, or 30d, and it feels like 15-20d.

He's one dimensional and sensational at what he does, but lacks other tricks, struggles by foot and isn't quick. Matt Priddis once had a profile that looked pretty similar, so there is viability to him if he irons out some of those weaknesses and keeps building upon those strengths.

 

[Shinboner1]

Still hyped on callow when he hasn't gotten a game or a contract yet for 2022?
Obviously something going on at the hawks because you said he was the best tall prospect of the draft.
Maybe other teams already knew something about his work ethic and talent that Hawks failed to see until now?

 

[Knightmare]

Still hyped on callow when he hasn't gotten a game or a contract yet for 2022?
Obviously something going on at the hawks because you said he was the best tall prospect of the draft.
Maybe other teams already knew something about his work ethic and talent that Hawks failed to see until now?

I'm still a fan of Callow.

As per my moneyball video on YouTube, if Hawthorn delist him, I'd be all over him, and if I can have him for a late pick, again, I'm doing it.

When he played in the VFL for Hawthorn, Jeka continued to be utilised as their #1 option. Callow was just asked to fit in rather than being featured. And then shortly after, the VFL season concludes due to lockdowns, only getting to play a month of footy with the Hawks.

So there isn't a lot to downgrade in terms of evaluating his talent. He still played the football he did in the SANFL and remains very advanced and capable for his age by position.

 

[Lionsfan1147]

Skinner can play forward and did play forward through the first half of this year.

I wouldn't recommend he, nor Schlensog for that matter to a club as key forwards. They're not AFL calibre as forwards.

In defence though? Different story. There are teams they can walk into the best-22 of.

I don’t know much about Schlensog but I disagree that Skinner isn’t in the best 22 of an AFL club as a forward, I believe if he wasn’t at a club like Brisbane with the forward talent they have he would be a start up week in week out

 

[Shinboner1]

North desperate for a good key defender and intercepter (better if they do both)
Have said that they're happy to develop one vs taking an established mid 26yr+ old.
Anyone in the draft who'll be available in the early 2nd round?
Where do you see Norths needs this year?

Been watching your vids, enjoyed the moneyball one.
More of a conversation starter for me vs agreeing with a lot of points you made.
Keep up the work, I regularly comment on your stuff.

 

[Big_Newon]

Still hyped on callow when he hasn't gotten a game or a contract yet for 2022?
Obviously something going on at the hawks because you said he was the best tall prospect of the draft.
Maybe other teams already knew something about his work ethic and talent that Hawks failed to see until now?

Mitchell literally said he wanted to explore his defensive side of the game in the future. 0% chance he gets delisted.

 

[Shinboner1]

Mitchell literally said he wanted to explore his defensive side of the game in the future. 0% chance he gets delisted.

hasn't been resigned yet

 

[Knightmare]

I don’t know much about Schlensog but I disagree that Skinner isn’t in the best 22 of an AFL club as a forward, I believe if he wasn’t at a club like Brisbane with the forward talent they have he would be a start up week in week out

Skinner kicked no more than 3 goals in a game as a key forward this year, had some 2s, 1s and 0s. He's slow, so he's not as a forward going to give you enough at ground level of tackling.

You could get more from a Levi Casboult or Mason Cox up forward as points of comparison. Skinner would be nothing more than depth at AFL level. Or in a Brisbane context, he'd be behind Daniher, Hipwood, McStay and maybe even Fullarton. And I'd say the same of Schlensog who through much of the second half of the year was asked to play forward and he like Skinner wasn't consistently effectual either.

Put Skinner in defence though on Brisbane, and only Andrews is clearly better. And it is down to how he reads it behind the play and goes for the intercept marks and contested marks and wins his 1v1s.

North desperate for a good key defender and intercepter (better if they do both)
Have said that they're happy to develop one vs taking an established mid 26yr+ old.
Anyone in the draft who'll be available in the early 2nd round?
Where do you see Norths needs this year?

Been watching your vids, enjoyed the moneyball one.
More of a conversation starter for me vs agreeing with a lot of points you made.
Keep up the work, I regularly comment on your stuff.

I've completed a list needs piece on ESPN which may interest you (see signature or page 1 for the link).

The 3 needs I listed for North in the piece are Jason Horne-Francis, general defenders and veteran leadership.

If I'm to recommend a key defender in the 2nd round to North Melbourne, and particularly if you're after someone who intercepts to a high level, Leek Alleer is the guy you're looking for. He's the best intercept marking key defender in this draft and is that Aliir Aliir type threat. Just two years older than the rest of the pool, Alleer is the standout mature ager and is someone you could start to give a taste for games next season and expect probably more-so 2023 really comes good.

 

[Wce17]

Hey Knightmare I’ve seen you have suggested who you think the WCE would be leaning towards with pick 10 going off drafting history but if it was up to you who would you draft? Cheers

 

[Big_Newon]

hasn't been resigned yet

Guarantee he will.

 

[Knightmare]

Hey Knightmare I’ve seen you have suggested who you think the WCE would be leaning towards with pick 10 going off drafting history but if it was up to you who would you draft? Cheers

If I'm the decision maker for West Coast I'm talking to Richmond about a trade down from 10 for their 15 and 26, and maybe try to get a Sydney Stack thrown in as a sweetner while I'm at it given he's unsigned and doesn't appear to be a priority to bring back. Richmond want to move up and I'd feel very comfortable moving down. And if it's not Richmond, I'd be exploring something along those lines as there should be similar opportunities to improve West Coast's list.

Why? I feel like at 15 Matthew Roberts who would be my target at 10 is a good chance still to be available and my feel is he's more likely than not still there. If he isn't available, I wouldn't be stressed. There will be other good midfielders. Local midfielder Matthew Johnson would be great, though he may even go top-10 the way he has gone of late. If he's not there either, again, I'd explore moving down a few spots to something early second and try my luck securing a Zac Taylor as another good midfielder and maybe improve my draft position for 2022 at the same time.

Being such an even draft, picks after that first roughly three live picks I'd have no particular attachment to, and with some clubs very keen to move up, I'd make a point of taking advantage of that as I feel like in any number of spots there are opportunities to secure good midfielders for the future, and there might be an opportunity to secure say two inside the first 30 picks rather than just the one which would be my approach in West Coast's situation and how to maximise this year's draft haul.

 

[Savage Kent]

Where’s the rest of the trade?

No effing way would we make that trade.

Pick 9 alone wouldn't be the deal for those two picks. The main point was to highlight what the gap was between the talent around pick 9 vs those available around picks 14 and 18 rather than a trade proposal.

If I were to make a proposal it would likely involve sending future picks your way to help bidding points for Ashcroft's son.

 

[Wce17]

If I'm the decision maker for West Coast I'm talking to Richmond about a trade down from 10 for their 15 and 26, and maybe try to get a Sydney Stack thrown in as a sweetner while I'm at it given he's unsigned and doesn't appear to be a priority to bring back. Richmond want to move up and I'd feel very comfortable moving down. And if it's not Richmond, I'd be exploring something along those lines as there should be similar opportunities to improve West Coast's list.

Why? I feel like at 15 Matthew Roberts who would be my target at 10 is a good chance still to be available and my feel is he's more likely than not still there. If he isn't available, I wouldn't be stressed. There will be other good midfielders. Local midfielder Matthew Johnson would be great, though he may even go top-10 the way he has gone of late. If he's not there either, again, I'd explore moving down a few spots to something early second and try my luck securing a Zac Taylor as another good midfielder and maybe improve my draft position for 2022 at the same time.

Being such an even draft, picks after that first roughly three live picks I'd have no particular attachment to, and with some clubs very keen to move up, I'd make a point of taking advantage of that as I feel like in any number of spots there are opportunities to secure good midfielders for the future, and there might be an opportunity to secure say two inside the first 30 picks rather than just the one which would be my approach in West Coast's situation and how to maximise this year's draft haul.

The more I think about this the more I like the idea. If we could end up with say 4 picks inside the top 30 with some savy trading without weakening are 2022 draft hand I would be stoked.

Then hopefully a couple of are NGA’s get through to the rookie and cat B lists (Humphries, Farmer, Regan, Aruthur & Soka Sokaa)

 

[SunshineHawkCal]

Knightmare where do you think Leek Aleer ranges in the draft?

Also do you know what type of player Zac Taylor is? And what his strengths & weaknesses are?

 

[Knightmare]

The more I think about this the more I like the idea. If we could end up with say 4 picks inside the top 30 with some savy trading without weakening are 2022 draft hand I would be stoked.

Then hopefully a couple of are NGA’s get through to the rookie and cat B lists (Humphries, Farmer, Regan, Aruthur & Soka Sokaa)

I'd want to still secure Farmer, Arthur and there may still be value late, so this is a good draft for West Coast to be involved in.

But top-30 picks are what West Coast need. It's a midfielder's draft. This is your opportunity to get a few for the long term and that's the range to go get them.

Knightmare where do you think Leek Aleer ranges in the draft?

Also do you know what type of player Zac Taylor is? And what his strengths & weaknesses are?

Alleer I think goes 20+. If you an early 2nd, you should be able to secure Alleer is my feel.

Taylor I go through the strengths and weaknesses of in my power rankings (see page 1) or wait until Monday and see my October Power Rankings on ESPN.

 

[Mydogbella]

The more I think about this the more I like the idea. If we could end up with say 4 picks inside the top 30 with some savy trading without weakening are 2022 draft hand I would be stoked.

Then hopefully a couple of are NGA’s get through to the rookie and cat B lists (Humphries, Farmer, Regan, Aruthur & Soka Sokaa)

The rumour around was that WCE is interested in Matt Johnson and Brad Hough. It will takes eagles first pick to grab Johnson.

Johnson is a prototypical WCE pick. Someone who had the run on board over the whole journey. I think real values are in 2nd and 3rd round in this draft. Someone like JVR/Bazzo/Avery would thrive in WCE system.

 

[Great8]

NWM been pretty good today IMO, showed some real glimpses of class

 

[Wild Bill]

Do you think many teams will be trading out of 2022 1st round due to father/sons? Bris for 1 might be looking to trade their 1st round.

If we have 19 & 20 it opens a lot of doors to get creative.

 

[troyjones2525]

Hi KM, Not sure if you've already covered it but who do you predict the Swans will select with their 1st (currently 12) and 2nd (currently 31) round picks? Also there's a good chance we will have Adelaide's 2nd round pick (currently 23) if not one a little earlier due to a Dawson trade.

I feel that this is a really important draft for the Swans if we have multiple 1st and 2nd round picks to add some finishing touches to our future premiership drive!

Sent from my SM-G998B using Tapatalk

 

[blueiris]

Do you think many teams will be trading out of 2022 1st round due to father/sons? Bris for 1 might be looking to trade their 1st round.

If we have 19 & 20 it opens a lot of doors to get creative.

Can’t see Us doing anything this year we have very little list spots available

 

[Knightmare]

The rumour around was that WCE is interested in Matt Johnson and Brad Hough. It will takes eagles first pick to grab Johnson.

Johnson is a prototypical WCE pick. Someone who had the run on board over the whole journey. I think real values are in 2nd and 3rd round in this draft. Someone like JVR/Bazzo/Avery would thrive in WCE system.

Johnson 1st up for WCE wouldn't surprise me. Hough could go somewhere second round is my best guess.

I like the value outside the first round also. There is a great deal of evenness in this draft, so there will be opportunities for clubs who have done well with their talent ID.

JVR could go first round on the back of recent form. Bazzo and Avery won't and would be suitable later on.

NWM been pretty good today IMO, showed some real glimpses of class

NVM has been good all year really. Whenever he has a good game, it feels like just another game for him. He's a talent.

Do you think many teams will be trading out of 2022 1st round due to father/sons? Bris for 1 might be looking to trade their 1st round.

If we have 19 & 20 it opens a lot of doors to get creative.

Smart teams if they have a 2022 first round father-son will hold the pick and trade it in 2022 when its value is likely higher.

Clubs too often get not enough when they trade future picks, so it's not something I'd make a practice of. I'd be more inclined, whether or not I have a F/S, Academy etc coming to take on more future picks than I'd trade.

Clubs have jumped the gun in the past though. Collingwood did last year with this year's pick, so there will be some who will, but equally as with the Dogs last year, some who won't. And it comes down to however they feel they'll maximise their return on picks.

Hi KM, Not sure if you've already covered it but who do you predict the Swans will select with their 1st (currently 12) and 2nd (currently 31) round picks? Also there's a good chance we will have Adelaide's 2nd round pick (currently 23) if not one a little earlier due to a Dawson trade.

I feel that this is a really important draft for the Swans if we have multiple 1st and 2nd round picks to add some finishing touches to our future premiership drive!

Sent from my SM-G998B using Tapatalk

Will put together a two round phantom draft after the trade period concludes.

Haven't given serious thought at this stage.

An example haul with 12+31 though could be Toby Conway (ruck) at 31 and best available midfield at 12 (maybe an Arlo Draper to give you one among many possibles).

 

[Big_Newon]

NWM been pretty good today IMO, showed some real glimpses of class

Did he play?