Draft Expert Knightmare's 2021 Draft Almanac

[Knightmare]

That's all fine. Moving up, no issue with it.

But Richmonds draft hand is strong, and we have other teams that need points, If we're doing pick swaps we should be coming out pretty even. So considering that, a -445pt trade should be rejected out of hand, let alone throwing in steak knives. I'm fully aware Stack isn't worth much, replace Stack with any name, Ralphsmith, Mansell, whoever. It's just a bad deal no matter the name. I'd hope if they were hit with this, that Hartley and co shut it down on the pick swap alone.

The context of the original trade idea was from a West Coast position, what should be asked for if they're to be moved down.

Typically when making offers for players/picks, you don't, just as if you're making an offer for a property, you're not giving your final and best offer out of the gate. There is that haggling component and getting a feel for the position of the other party and what they're willing/not willing to include in a deal, and to what extent they're willing to explore particular picks/players in a trade.

I totally agree that in Richmond's situation, it's not a deal to make. I personally wouldn't be making if I was in Richmond's position a trade up to West Coast's pick 10. I'd if anything be more interested in exploring a move down from 7, just not loving the players likely to drop in that range. But again, that's a personal preference thing this year based on how even I view the 6-30 range.

hey KM love your work.

Mac Andrew has been listed at 70kg for a while now. Is there any word on him putting on any size. I would imagine he would need to put on 20kg+ minimum for him to play as a ruck in the AFL and hopefully he would have put on a little size over the last few months.

Do you think however picks him up will develop him in the 2s as a pure ruck or have him play as a forward. Have been following Xerri as a north man and he has looked very good in the VFL as a ruck but looks out of place up forward in the AFL so not sure what the projection for the next few years of Mac could look like.

I haven't heard any updated height/weight listings. Andrew last time I saw him was as thin as ever, so he wouldn't be much heavier than 70kg if he has put on some kg. He'll take time to put weight onto. And one you need to be cautious with also in that you want him to retain his athleticism at the same time, so it's something that needs to be done gradually.

Whoever drafts him I fully expect play him in the 2s as a key position player. It's too soon to expose him at state league level against men. He needs at least a year in the gym just to ensure he develops the durability to be able to ruck. In the long run though, if Andrew doesn't develop into a ruck, it's a waste spending a high pick on him, as he doesn't project as anything spectacular as a key position player, as someone who may cause problems here/there due to his height/length, but probably continue playing a pretty erratic brand of football.

The key in any case is extreme patience. If you're drafting him, you shouldn't expect to see him until year 4 or for him to be playing a high level of football until year 6. It takes that long with ruckmen generally, and it's hard to see it being a quick process with Andrew.

 

[Giant Strides]

That's all fine. Moving up, no issue with it.

But Richmonds draft hand is strong, and we have other teams that need points, If we're doing pick swaps we should be coming out pretty even. So considering that, a -445pt trade should be rejected out of hand, let alone throwing in steak knives. I'm fully aware Stack isn't worth much, replace Stack with any name, Ralphsmith, Mansell, whoever. It's just a bad deal no matter the name. I'd hope if they were hit with this, that Hartley and co shut it down on the pick swap alone.

I don't think you comprehend the nature of picks swapping an early for multiple late picks.

The nature of the pick/points system is flawed, in that it gives a comparatively higher value to later picks. That is, if you were swapping picks in a system where there was no father/son or academy bid matching, a team would need earlier (and generally less) picks to trade for those first round or early second round picks that are normally traded now.

So, the whole point of Dogs trading #17 is to get more points - by several hundred - from a raft of later picks. A pick swap won't come out even when teams want points.

You can hold to your premise of coming out even - but no-one will swap with you because someone else will trade picks that do give an advantage to the team with the earlier pick.

And even if points are not the objective - so using the example if Adelaide wanted to split their pick #4 into two later picks - the Crows are not going to just sell to someone who throws in the difference in points between a later first round pick & #4 (or two second round picks whose sum is around the points of #4); they will still want a premium to move down the order and reduce their chances of getting a better kid.

A 400 point deficit in either example is probably in he ballpark of being reasonable, depending on exactly which pick you would be moving up to. That is, the earlier the pick you're gaining, and the higher your gain (and hence your trading partner's drop!) the higher the premium is likely to be. So, for example, trading #7 for Crow's #4 would cost a lesser premium (generally speaking) than trading for Suns' #3.

 

[Elton Johns Wig]

I don't think you comprehend the nature of picks swapping an early for multiple late picks.

The nature of the pick/points system is flawed, in that it gives a comparatively higher value to later picks. That is, if you were swapping picks in a system where there was no father/son or academy bid matching, a team would need earlier (and generally less) picks to trade for those first round or early second round picks that are normally traded now.

So, the whole point of Dogs trading #17 is to get more points - by several hundred - from a raft of later picks. A pick swap won't come out even when teams want points.

You can hold to your premise of coming out even - but no-one will swap with you because someone else will trade picks that do give an advantage to the team with the earlier pick.

And even if points are not the objective - so using the example if Adelaide wanted to split their pick #4 into two later picks - the Crows are not going to just sell to someone who throws in the difference in points between a later first round pick & #4 (or two second round picks whose sum is around the points of #4); they will still want a premium to move down the order and reduce their chances of getting a better kid.

A 400 point deficit in either example is probably in he ballpark of being reasonable, depending on exactly which pick you would be moving up to. That is, the earlier the pick you're gaining, and the higher your gain (and hence your trading partner's drop!) the higher the premium is likely to be. So, for example, trading #7 for Crow's #4 would cost a lesser premium (generally speaking) than trading for Suns' #3.

Oh, I understand the premise.

I don't think going from pick 15 to pick 10 is worth -445. Let alone adding a steak knives player.
I'll take a decent deficit if we're moving to top 5, but not to pick 10. Moving from 10 to 5 is worth more than moving from 15 to 10. And if there is someone we REALLY want in the top 5, we'll have to bite the bullet. But giving 26 to move up 5 spots to a low mid first? No thanks.

I understand it won't come out even, and moving up means you pay. But even Knightmare said if he was Richmond he wouldn't do it.

 

[MrDanggazz]

Hey KM,

Just curious on who you would take at 6 (Cerra trade) and 8 if you were in Fremantles shoes?

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM,

Just curious on who you would take at 6 (Cerra trade) and 8 if you were in Fremantles shoes?

I see the 6-30 range as very even, so I'd be exploring two for one opportunities and opportunities to trade for future picks to maximise my draft hand.

If I'm holding and using the picks, Erasmus and Johnson as two local mids I like and feel could be best available choices. Happy coincidence they're both local.

 

[WCE_Talk]

Hey KM

Do you know much about Arthur Jones?


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[Knightmare]

Hey KM

Do you know much about Arthur Jones?

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He had a nice game for WA against SA the other week. I featured him as my player focus player for the week.

He's worth a late pick. He's a genuine line-breaker with ball in hand. Has wheels.

 

[curnow inferno]

Hi KM, given what you know of this year’s draft quality, who wins this trade scenario?

pick 6, 25 and future 2nd rder to freo
Cerra, pick 27 and future 3rd rder to blues

 

[Knightmare]

Hi KM, given what you know of this year’s draft quality, who wins this trade scenario?

pick 6, 25 and future 2nd rder to freo
Cerra, pick 27 and future 3rd rder to blues

I'd call that roughly fair value.

I like Cerra more than pick 6, but the picks balance the deal out well to a level where on either side I'd feel pretty comfortable agreeing and moving onto other trade negotiations.

Whether that's the same in reality, I can't speak for what the clubs, but they shouldn't need to muck around much with that, at least based on my view of Cerra and his worth.

 

[Knightmare]

AFL Draft wrap with a focus on speedster Ronald Fejo Jr:

Joining West Adelaide this year from Northern Territory, Ronald Fejo Jr has been a highlight reel in the Reserves. Taking part for the Allies (a team composed of talent from NSW/ACT, Queensland, Tasmanian and Northern Territory talent) in their clash with South Australia, Fejo wowed onlookers with his rare speed, agility and evasion.

Point of discussion: Anyone else looking to add Alastair Lord to their draft boards?

https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_...ghlight-reel-player-ronald-fejo-jr-nt-emerges

 

[Dr Tigris]

Knightmare would it be fair to say that this year looks both fairly deep for good talent (top 30ish), midfield heavy and that it is quite unclear as to the actual level for a lot of players.

It seems from various draft watchers that as the year has gone on the quantity of talent has increased markedly. But many are saying they know there are a lot of players with talent, but we haven't seen enough to know how solid that talent is for individuals.

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare would it be fair to say that this year looks both fairly deep for good talent (top 30ish), midfield heavy and that it is quite unclear as to the actual level for a lot of players.

It seems from various draft watchers that as the year has gone on the quantity of talent has increased markedly. But many are saying they know there are a lot of players with talent, but we haven't seen enough to know how solid that talent is for individuals.

There is relatively good depth this year and top-30 is the place to be You could have pick 10 or you could have pick 20, and I don't see the difference being massive in quality. It's a midfielder's draft, so it's a good year to be loading up on them.

There will be a lot of variation in opinion due to the evenness. And you'll see it if you compare my rankings to anyone else - be it on bigfooty or in the media. And probably with the Victorian's more than any as the sample size has been so small, and we don't have the luxury to go through YouTube as we have in the past to view replays which has significantly hurt the sample size of games we can view by comparison to say 2019 where all games were available to watch on YouTube.

There are a number of Victorian's in my latest power rankings update I've speculated a little on, just looking at what they were doing before the season got cancelled. As no doubt in Victoria as we're seeing in other states, there are some who have really stepped things up over the past couple of months and deservedly are seeing their stocks rise as a result.

 

[Dr Tigris]

There is relatively good depth this year and top-30 is the place to be You could have pick 10 or you could have pick 20, and I don't see the difference being massive in quality. It's a midfielder's draft, so it's a good year to be loading up on them.

There will be a lot of variation in opinion due to the evenness. And you'll see it if you compare my rankings to anyone else - be it on bigfooty or in the media. And probably with the Victorian's more than any as the sample size has been so small, and we don't have the luxury to go through YouTube as we have in the past to view replays which has significantly hurt the sample size of games we can view by comparison to say 2019 where all games were available to watch on YouTube.

There are a number of Victorian's in my latest power rankings update I've speculated a little on, just looking at what they were doing before the season got cancelled. As no doubt in Victoria as we're seeing in other states, there are some who have really stepped things up over the past couple of months and deservedly are seeing their stocks rise as a result.

Thanks mate.

Good year to have a heap of picks under 30 then

Keep up the good work.

Wish the mainstream media took as much care with what they do as you, and the other draft watchers on here, do.

 

[goat123]

Knightmare What have your thoughts been on Mitch O’Neill this year? Obviously been delisted from West Coast last year, do you think he gets another chance?

 

[Prochard123]

Hi KM, wow is the depth later on in the draft? Although probably not ideal, but how would you feel about making selections in the 40-60 range?

 

[Deeluded]

Hi KM. Dees have just traded back into the first round (again) with pick 17. Is there a chance that this will be enough to get Mac Andrew? I hear GWS are keen on the kid.

Or what / who do you think they might be targeting in that range?

 

[blueiris]

Hi KM. Dees have just traded back into the first round (again) with pick 17. Is there a chance that this will be enough to get Mac Andrew? I hear GWS are keen on the kid.

Or what / who do you think they might be targeting in that range?

Melbourne can’t draft players in their NGA that are bid on in the top 20 picks

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare What have your thoughts been on Mitch O’Neill this year? Obviously been delisted from West Coast last year, do you think he gets another chance?

O'Neill has been a solid contributor for South Adelaide. Recruiters no doubt would have seen a good amount of him. I'm not seeing him being of AFL relevance. I don't see how he earns a best-22 spot on an AFL list to be realistic.

He'd be a pass for me.

Hi KM, wow is the depth later on in the draft? Although probably not ideal, but how would you feel about making selections in the 40-60 range?

I do see opportunities late and I'd have no problem feeling like I can find value and potential long term pieces in that range.

Jack Avery who I'm a big fan of for example could be available late.

Bodhi Uwland who I'm fanboying over I haven't heard word Gold Coast are committed to.

There are mature agers who can really play who will be available late.

Will Pearce who I rate as a forward hasn't been invited to a combine and hasn't been selected to represent SA either, and for me he's clear-cut top-50 on quality.

Hi KM. Dees have just traded back into the first round (again) with pick 17. Is there a chance that this will be enough to get Mac Andrew? I hear GWS are keen on the kid.

Or what / who do you think they might be targeting in that range?

I think Mac Andrew goes top-10. If he doesn't, GWS always have pick 13 to take Andrew before Melbourne enter the draft.

Melbourne I'd suggest have a clear target in mind at 17. Melbourne aren't in a salary cap situation where they'll be using a first round pick for an opposition player. They're in player retention mode and looking to keep their key players for the long term, rather than add to their list.

I can't say I know who Melbourne are targeting at this stage. A young key position player in that range would make sense. Perhaps a Jacob Van Rooyen to give an early guess and give you a name who could be available and make sense for the Dees around that point.

 

[WCE_Talk]

Hey KM

Do you know much about Ethan Regan, the Eagles NGA product? Only seen him play twice


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[Knightmare]

Hey KM

Do you know much about Ethan Regan, the Eagles NGA product? Only seen him play twice


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Regan is an upside pick in West Coast's context. He's a vertical athlete with some explosiveness. He has his odd moments where he influences matches, but he's very much flash in the pan from the games I've seen of him.

He's not someone I'll have in my power rankings, but I think he's a good chance to be joining West Coast. My guess is probably more as a rookie than senior listed player given how raw his play is.

 

[WCE_Talk]

Do you see Sokka Sokka being picked up or is that a long shot?


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[Knightmare]

Do you see Sokka Sokka being picked up or is that a long shot?


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Haven't heard his name brought up in a draft context. I'm not convinced as a relieving ruck he'd make it at AFL level. He isn't dangerous enough as a forward and at 196cm he won't be an AFL ruckman.

I think his best shot is switching into defence next year. See how he develops there.

 

[Kwality]

Haven't heard his name brought up in a draft context. I'm not convinced as a relieving ruck he'd make it at AFL level. He isn't dangerous enough as a forward and at 196cm he won't be an AFL ruckman.

I think his best shot is switching into defence next year. See how he develops there.

Has he stopped growing?

 

[Knightmare]

Has he stopped growing?

The only measurements I have is what's on the WAFL website which is their start of season measurements. I can't say I have any intel as to whether he's still growing and if so at what rate.

If others have historical height data, they're more than welcome to help.

 

[woopy doo]

He KM Jack Hayes won the Jack Oatey medal in SANFL and finished runner up in Margarey any chance of being drafted. Watched a bit of SANFL this year and reckon this lad has it in spades