Draft Expert Knightmare's 2021 Draft Almanac

[Knightmare]

Knightmare Some rumblings are suggesting Hawthorn taking Matthew Johnson at 5.

Way too much of a reach? I'm familiar with his stats, athletic profile, highlights and BOG performance in one of the state games. Don't know enough to know if his current output is conducive to living up to being a top 5 selection. I do like the point of difference he'd offer our midfield though.

Not unreasonable at all.

Poor during the first half of the year but came really good late season during both the U19 Champs and WAFL Reserves through the finals series. If he develops the contested components, he can be incredible. That's the condition for him being a star. If he doesn't develop that, he might be a fringe type. So he's your real high risk/high reward. But tracking well. Not many guys his height with that agility/evasion/skill. So the points of difference are there to be great with good development.

Certainly adds a point of contrast for Hawthorn.

 

[Knightmare]

My trademark picks for the 2021 AFL Draft:

*Some of those include Leek Alleer, Angus Sheldrick, Zac Taylor and Bodhi Uwland from my top-20. I go through another 10 of my favourites in this year's draft.

Point of discussion: Any mature agers aside from Alleer anyone has in their top-40 rankings?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_wWImhVDyoA

 

[Knightmare]

2021 AFL Draft top 75 power rankings and tier list:

My top-20 are as per my November Power Rankings on ESPN. Next few include: Roberts, Van Rooyen, Lord, Sinn, Goater.

Point of discussion: Is 21/75 mature agers and 6/75 delisted free agents too many to feature in a top-75 power rankings or not enough?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-_Fj530366w

 

[Shinboner1]

2021 AFL Draft top 75 power rankings and tier list:
Point of discussion: Is 21/75 mature agers and 6/75 delisted free agents too many to feature in a top-75 power rankings or not enough?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-_Fj530366w

Its enough but I doubt more than 5 in total go if any at all.
Few sides would love a couple of mature aged state league gun midfielders but somehow they just miss the draft every year.
I'd have thought Tim Kelly would have opened up some eyes to the possibilities but I guess not.
*forgot dean was mature ager.

 

[Davo-27]

2021 AFL Draft top 75 power rankings and tier list:

My top-20 are as per my November Power Rankings on ESPN. Next few include: Roberts, Van Rooyen, Lord, Sinn, Goater.

Point of discussion: Is 21/75 mature agers and 6/75 delisted free agents too many to feature in a top-75 power rankings or not enough?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-_Fj530366w

i think the Mature Agers who are likely to get picked up are Dean, Aleer, Fejo Jnr and maybe a couple of others in the ND(maybe a Bailey Rogers, Tyrone Thorne, Blake Schlensog, i see Sam Skinner got picked up by Port which is a good outcome for him, Noah Pegoraro an outside chance i think too, i do like Joshua Clarke too but i dont think he does enough to get picked up), rookies may be more likely for mature agers after that? where you can give them 12 month contracts and have less investment if they fail, probably some random competitive Ruckmen from the sanfl to get given opportunities to fill the 3rd or 4th ruck position on lists?.

 

[weltschmerz]

I see Josh Ward is your top Josh this year.

 

[Mutineer]

Campbell Chesser can't even make your top 70 prospects?

Fair dinkum mate you have to be having a laugh.

 

[Knightmare]

Its enough but I doubt more than 5 in total go if any at all.
Few sides would love a couple of mature aged state league gun midfielders but somehow they just miss the draft every year.
I'd have thought Tim Kelly would have opened up some eyes to the possibilities but I guess not.
*forgot dean was mature ager.

I wouldn't be surprised if more than 5 mature agers (including overagers) go in this year's draft. And I count the classic 19 year olds in that overage category.

Every year there seems to be at least one really good mature ager who in hindsight is a clear-cut first round choice, normally it's several.

I see Josh Ward is your top Josh this year.

It's one of those good footy names along with the likes of Jack, Gary. Don't know what it is with some of those names where it so often translates.

Campbell Chesser can't even make your top 70 prospects?

Fair dinkum mate you have to be having a laugh.

Had a poor season and was unable to influence in any of the games I've seen him appear. Didn't find him damaging on the outside and he wasn't winning a meaningful amount of his own ball, so he's not one I'm excited about and have firmly in the category of someone who I'd let someone else pick.

Warner is the same this year and is another who could go late first.

I can't say I share the excitement many others do around outside players.

 

[PMBangers]

Had a poor season and was unable to influence in any of the games I've seen him appear. Didn't find him damaging on the outside and he wasn't winning a meaningful amount of his own ball, so he's not one I'm excited about and have firmly in the category of someone who I'd let someone else pick.

Respectfully, which games have you watched of Chesser this year? I can understand not seeing him as a first round prospect to an extent off of his performances this year, but not on the radar at all?

 

[eDPS]

Chesser only got to play 3 games of NAB League this year. Round 1 he was 2nd best on ground after Daicos.

Round 2 he started as one of Sandy’s best before getting that knee injury even playing with it for a few minutes.

In his first game back against Tasmania he had a respectable 19 disposals from limited game time and in the Country v Metro Challenge he was somewhat managed with one the least amount of game time out of any Country player.

 

[PMBangers]

Round 2 he started as one of Sandy’s best before getting that knee injury even playing with it for a few minutes.

Didn't he play the second half with it, unless I'm misremembering he went off in the second then came on after half time with it strapped and played it out

 

[eDPS]

Didn't he play the second half with it, unless I'm misremembering he went off in the second then came on after half time with it strapped and played it out

He tried to play with it but pretty sure he missed the entire last quarter at least

 

[Shinboner1]

What's your thoughts on Arthur Jones @km?
Thought he'd shown a lot but doesn't seem to be on anyone's draft boards.
I'd be keen on him at the Roos, I believe he has Krakouer roots too.

 

[Knightmare]

Respectfully, which games have you watched of Chesser this year? I can understand not seeing him as a first round prospect to an extent off of his performances this year, but not on the radar at all?

In the Metro trial and in his games for Sandy v Northern and Tasmania.

I wanted to watch the game v Oakleigh at the start of the year, but the stream didn't work.

I've watched for Chesser and been well aware of him (I'd have to refer back but I would have had him in my preseason and probably early season power rankings) but I certainly haven't seen first round talent from the games I've seen this year. That's not to say he couldn't sneak in late first round on draft day. But he certainly isn't one I'd be giving any consideration to in that range, nor even in the second round.

I'm happy to be on my own passing on Chesser and calling him a trap if selected inside the first round.

Chesser only got to play 3 games of NAB League this year. Round 1 he was 2nd best on ground after Daicos.

Round 2 he started as one of Sandy’s best before getting that knee injury even playing with it for a few minutes.

In his first game back against Tasmania he had a respectable 19 disposals from limited game time and in the Country v Metro Challenge he was somewhat managed with one the least amount of game time out of any Country player.

That's the one NAB League game of Chesser I didn't get to see, but looking at the listed bests, Chesser wasn't one of them.

v Northern, Chesser played into the second half and during the game was take on the game in the rain, but I didn't consider him one of Sandringham's best. Then the other games he looked slower and struggled to have an impact.

Within my power rankings, I'm fundamentally looking at my confidence in these guys being best-22 players for teams at AFL level.

I'm unconvinced with Chesser. He could well work his way towards becoming that. But nothing I saw from him this year gave me more confidence than any of those others I listed.

I'm very much in the camp with Chesser of him being someone I'd let someone else draft.

What's your thoughts on Arthur Jones @km?
Thought he'd shown a lot but doesn't seem to be on anyone's draft boards.
I'd be keen on him at the Roos, I believe he has Krakouer roots too.

Jones had that one good game in the Grand Final curtain raiser (he was that week my player focus in my piece on ESPN). He has talent, having the speed and agility and impact per possession, though I'd really like for him to find more of the footy so that we can feel that impact more often and in more matches.

He's one if he goes undrafted I'd like to see come back next year and work on his game to become a more productive and better footballer.

If he's picked, he's a late-rookie. But one to consider in that range if looking for that injection of spark.

 

[PMBangers]

In the Metro trial and in his games for Sandy v Northern and Tasmania.

Yeah idk how you come to that conclusion from the Northern game personally, I'd argue he was the cleanest user that day, maybe second to Ward, and wasn't afraid to dig in prior to his meniscus injury in the game

 

[Knightmare]

Yeah idk how you come to that conclusion from the Northern game personally, I'd argue he was the cleanest user that day, maybe second to Ward, and wasn't afraid to dig in prior to his meniscus injury in the game

In that particular game one of the moments that stuck with me was the decision on one play when going for a run to try in the heavy rain to bounce the ball. Obviously it didn't work out for him. But that took some of the shine away from that performance. His ball use was clean and reliable enough on the day without being damaging. The relative element of promise was the run and dare and attempts broadly speaking to take on the game with his run.

 

[eDPS]

I didn't get to see, but looking at the listed bests, Chesser wasn't one of them.

Daicos was named 4th best for Oakleigh despite being the clear best on ground for both sides. Club bests don’t mean anything.

 

[Knightmare]

Daicos was named 4th best for Oakleigh despite being the clear best on ground for both sides. Club bests don’t mean anything.

If there was an online replay of the game to watch, I would go watch it, as it would have been an interesting watch, but with no stream of the game and not being there in person, I simply can't comment on what happened/may have happened. It's just not a game other than looking at the stats for some context that I can include as a part of my evaluation.

 

[Lore]

If there was an online replay of the game to watch, I would go watch it, as it would have been an interesting watch, but with no stream of the game and not being there in person, I simply can't comment on what happened/may have happened. It's just not a game other than looking at the stats for some context that I can include as a part of my evaluation.

Pretty unfortunate really. On the bright side, Twomey seems to think the injury hasn’t had any lasting effects on his athleticism;

 

[Lore]

If it’s helpful, a highlights package;


And an interview;

 

[Knightmare]

Pretty unfortunate really. On the bright side, Twomey seems to think the injury hasn’t had any lasting effects on his athleticism;

My suggestion isn't that Chesser isn't quick or has lost his speed. He has good (but not elite) speed and uses it pretty well.

His attempts to run and take on the game are the way he mostly impacts games.

The lack of a meaningful contested side to his game, lack of any meaningful hurt factor by foot (he's neat and tidy by foot without being super damaging), not overly high production and lack of additional weapons leave me lacking the excitement around Chesser others currently have.

I don't find myself getting as excited as others tend to about outside players who project at least in my view as fringe types once fully developed.

I find looking at outside players, there aren't a lot of good ones at AFL level. And those who are good, they're generally the really high end ones and I feel like those who aren't will be more unconventional by today's standard and more your key position height types with contested marking gifts and elite endurance.

 

[Lore]

My suggestion isn't that Chesser isn't quick or has lost his speed. He has good (but not elite) speed and uses it pretty well.

His attempts to run and take on the game are the way he mostly impacts games.

The lack of a meaningful contested side to his game, lack of any meaningful hurt factor by foot (he's neat and tidy by foot without being super damaging), not overly high production and lack of additional weapons leave me lacking the excitement around Chesser others currently have.

I don't find myself getting as excited as others tend to about outside players who project at least in my view as fringe types once fully developed.

I find looking at outside players, there aren't a lot of good ones at AFL level. And those who are good, they're generally the really high end ones and I feel like those who aren't will be more unconventional by today's standard and more your key position height types with contested marking gifts and elite endurance.

If he is all the things they say he is (they- testing, coaches from AFL academy, U12s/U15s state teams, U16s year, interviews) – what part of the draft do you think clubs would see him becoming a viable option, perhaps based on examples in past years since you’ve been watching the draft for a long while now?

Can’t be the first highly rated junior who got injured and missed a bunch of footy and still got drafted based on other attributes and information?

 

[Knightmare]

If he is all the things they say he is (they- testing, coaches from AFL academy, U12s/U15s state teams, U16s year, interviews) – what part of the draft do you think clubs would see him becoming a viable option, perhaps based on examples in past years since you’ve been watching the draft for a long while now?

Can’t be the first highly rated junior who got injured and missed a bunch of footy and still got drafted based on other attributes and information?

I find in looking back at those who have dominated in the younger age groups, but then either drop away or don't meaningfully improve in their draft years, on the whole, they don't tend to improve a lot at AFL level and often times don't make the grade. Tom Swift, James Aish, Ben Kennedy and Aiden Bonar for a few top of mind.

I'm a lot more interested instead in those who are showing year on year progression and are rapidly improving if they're no in their draft year those great performers.

Looking at Chesser as a non-improver, and seeing his play not on an AFL standard, I don't view Chesser as the certainty to make the grade others appear to. It's not like he's a skinny kid who is still early stages in his physical development, coming into the season he was already listed at 83kg. And he's still not one I would feel confident backing to win his own ball.

Sure there are guys in their draft years who can miss it through injury or be heavily impacted by injuries and have their performances hurt as a result, but unless they're doing something or have done something, it's making assumptions that a guy can do something. To too great of an extent, that's what seems to be happening with Chesser. And I don't believe they're the right assumptions.

I could well be wrong, and smaller samples and injuries in their draft years only make for even less precise evaluations. But at the end of the day, you ultimately have to have on the draft board those you're confident in, and certainly for where he is projected to go in the draft, there are many players I'm much more confident in than Chesser.

 

[PMBangers]

In that particular game one of the moments that stuck with me was the decision on one play when going for a run to try in the heavy rain to bounce the ball. Obviously it didn't work out for him. But that took some of the shine away from that performance. His ball use was clean and reliable enough on the day without being damaging. The relative element of promise was the run and dare and attempts broadly speaking to take on the game with his run.

I'm not sure where you get the idea Chesser was digging in. I didn't see that at all. There was nothing notable about his ball winning at all. He only had 4 contested possessions (20 uncontested). Only Windhager had a worse ratio with 2 contested/13 uncontested for Sandringham on the day.

It shouldn't be a wonder why neither feature on my extended power rankings with contested ball winning the component for midfielders that is most essential for games translating to AFL level play.

I mostly get the 'idea' of him digging in from watching the game, personally I'm not all that bothered by stats when I've watched a game, especially when I don't have access to CP/UP, and know that a prospect was going at it when it was their time to, I'm happy to 'back my own judgement' in that regard. He was playing Wing and got involved when it was on his side of the ground, I'd be worried if he wasn't able to hold space and decide he wanted to do it all himself

 

[briztoon]

In the Metro trial and in his games for Sandy v Northern and Tasmania.

I wanted to watch the game v Oakleigh at the start of the year, but the stream didn't work.

I've watched for Chesser and been well aware of him (I'd have to refer back but I would have had him in my preseason and probably early season power rankings) but I certainly haven't seen first round talent from the games I've seen this year. That's not to say he couldn't sneak in late first round on draft day. But he certainly isn't one I'd be giving any consideration to in that range, nor even in the second round.

I'm happy to be on my own passing on Chesser and calling him a trap if selected inside the first round.



That's the one NAB League game of Chesser I didn't get to see, but looking at the listed bests, Chesser wasn't one of them.

v Northern, Chesser played into the second half and during the game was take on the game in the rain, but I didn't consider him one of Sandringham's best. Then the other games he looked slower and struggled to have an impact.

Within my power rankings, I'm fundamentally looking at my confidence in these guys being best-22 players for teams at AFL level.

I'm unconvinced with Chesser. He could well work his way towards becoming that. But nothing I saw from him this year gave me more confidence than any of those others I listed.

I'm very much in the camp with Chesser of him being someone I'd let someone else draft.



Jones had that one good game in the Grand Final curtain raiser (he was that week my player focus in my piece on ESPN). He has talent, having the speed and agility and impact per possession, though I'd really like for him to find more of the footy so that we can feel that impact more often and in more matches.

He's one if he goes undrafted I'd like to see come back next year and work on his game to become a more productive and better footballer.

If he's picked, he's a late-rookie. But one to consider in that range if looking for that injection of spark.

Jesus, if you’re relying on NAB League best on ground lists to help determine your rankings, you’re really not getting a true reflection of the game.

They can be wildly laughable at times.