Draft Expert Knightmare's 2021 Draft Almanac

[LukeParkerno1]

I hate this notion of us taking some medium defender, why we have a number of them especially when our midfield still needs addressing. Where have we addressed our inside need with Kennedy moving on and what not

 

[bellpark]

Hi Knightmare - perplexed with 2 Cats issues - 1. You have Hawks trading into 23, not Cats, and 2. We have Cooper Stephens coming into 22 probably for his first genuine year, so picking Knevit to me seems a double up when we should be complimenting our midfield. Agree on Sheldrick as Selwood replacement, but interested in why Knevit would be a good fit with Stephens there as well, and not someone like a Draper or Chesser for example.

 

[scoman]

Hey Knightmare I was eagerly scanning your draft hoping to see Matt Hamelmann. No luck on that front. Do you think he is any chance in the national or rookie drafts? I cant think of another mature age KPF with a better record. His record is far superior to recent mature age pick ups like Corbett, Mihceck etc.

 

[Knightmare]

Has he finished high school or will he be studying in Melbourne Sharp moved to Queensland but is Wilmot willing to do the same also he’s that more shutdown defender right like Answerth and Starcevich

Wilmot can both rebound and shutdown, so he'd give Brisbane options. He's the youngest in the pool, so I'd imagine he would have just finished y12.

Could imagine us going for a Conway, but key defenders we seem to be able to develop at will over our history. Just think we need to use our top picks on the best midfielders available.

No one else seems to have Roberts sliding so far, what have you based this on? is it your personal ranking or what you think might actually happen?

With both McGovern and Barrass injury prone, (Barrass hasn't played 20 games in a season) won't West Coast be wanting insurance?

Roberts is a mid-late pick. I rate him more highly than that in my own extended power rankings (21). But I think he goes quite a bit later as it's a draft with a lot of good midfielders and there are others with less 'yeah buts.'

I hate this notion of us taking some medium defender, why we have a number of them especially when our midfield still needs addressing. Where have we addressed our inside need with Kennedy moving on and what not

Swans will be add Anderson as a rookie. He's a strong bodied ball winner and will add to those stocks as that Kennedy style mid. Swans won't be missing out, particularly if he develops.

Hi Knightmare - perplexed with 2 Cats issues - 1. You have Hawks trading into 23, not Cats, and 2. We have Cooper Stephens coming into 22 probably for his first genuine year, so picking Knevit to me seems a double up when we should be complimenting our midfield. Agree on Sheldrick as Selwood replacement, but interested in why Knevit would be a good fit with Stephens there as well, and not someone like a Draper or Chesser for example.

I haven't included any exchanges of picks. Picks moves as bids are matched.

I think there is a good chance Geelong make the trade for the Dogs #23, but without knowing the exact picks that will be exchanged, I didn't include it as part of my draft.

I don't see any particular need for more outside guys for Geelong. You're loaded with Smith/Mitchell/Menegola/Higgins. Holmes added last year to get some outside youth. I worry more about the youth through the midfield.

Hey Knightmare I was eagerly scanning your draft hoping to see Matt Hamelmann. No luck on that front. Do you think he is any chance in the national or rookie drafts? I cant think of another mature age KPF with a better record. His record is far superior to recent mature age pick ups like Corbett, Mihceck etc.

Given his age, it's against the odds he gets picked, though late/rookie I feel he is worthwhile for consideration for a club needing someone ready-made, as he's been a state league star for a number of years now and could contend for regular games for a team.

Hammelmann and Keitel alike I feel could be solid for AFL purposes and are two I included in my extended power rankings on YouTube. They're both in that strong depth at worst, back end of best-22 at best category.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Swans will be add Anderson as a rookie. He's a strong bodied ball winner and will add to those stocks as that Kennedy style mid. Swans won't be missing out, particularly if he develops.

Putting the hopes on a rookie, why do I see this as a VERY bad strategy. If we are going a defender pick a key one (that's our main area of need now), a medium one is probably a few levels below. Plenty of smalls available if we don't take a genuine tall. Either option.

I'm just thankful the muppet Twomey has picked this bloke as well and he NEVER gets our picks right! Good news.

 

[Obeanie1]

Not sure West Coast will be taking a ruck and a key defender with their two second rounders. Might take a ruck, maybe, but we need midfielders, certainly not key defenders (given we have Barrass (26) and Edwards (21) backing up McGovern).

Erasmus and Roberts are two mids.

Traded in SPS another.

Rookie a 24 yr old Bailey Rogers makes 4 mids.

Eagles need a Nic replacement and the guys behind him havent shown much at all.

Charlie Dean I really rate and is the type of tall defender the Eagles need. One who can actually defend. McGovern could be done in 2 years.

 

[Shinboner1]

Final ESPN AFL Draft podcast of the year:

Quick early phantom yesterday afternoons podcast:
1. NM = Horne-Francis
2. WBD = Darcy
3. Coll = Daicos (will this remain the same for my final phantom?)
4. GWS = Callaghan
5. GC = Andrew

Point of discussion: Jake and Matt also loved the Hugh Greenwood addition by North Melbourne. Of all the midfielders to appear for the Suns, at the peak of their powers, was Greenwood a top-6 midfielder in their club history?

@ESPNFootyPod | Linktree

Join ESPN's Matt Walsh and Jake Michaels as they discuss the AFL's hot topics.

linktr.ee

For my final phantom draft. Stay tuned.

KM: why darcy before daicos when it hurts more to pick daicos first?
Its not like either are a chance to go to their bidding teams anyway.
POD: Yes greenwood is fantastic and because he was a super late mature ager he's just getting into his prime now.
Reckon he's got 3-5 years left in him.

 

[Shinboner1]

Why would North take Motlop over Butler who is better? North LOVE multi role players who are quick, one touch players that are good defensively.
Are you saying Butler cant play the small crumbing role?

 

[danster168]

Why would North take Motlop over Butler who is better? North LOVE multi role players who are quick, one touch players that are good defensively.
Are you saying Butler cant play the small crumbing role?
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You can't say that Butler is better than Motlop just because you've read a few mock drafts. There's so much speculation in drafting and I'd trust the full time recruiters over people that just read Bigfooty. It's like saying you want to take Hayden young over Kozzie Pickett because Hayden Young was rated higher.

 

[blueiris]

KM: why darcy before daicos when it hurts more to pick daicos first?
Its not like either are a chance to go to their bidding teams anyway.
POD: Yes greenwood is fantastic and because he was a super late mature ager he's just getting into his prime now.
Reckon he's got 3-5 years left in him.

Giants rate Darcy at pick 1 according to Twomey

 

[Shinboner1]

You can't say that Butler is better than Motlop just because you've read a few mock drafts. There's so much speculation in drafting and I'd trust the full time recruiters over people that just read Bigfooty. It's like saying you want to take Hayden young over Kozzie Pickett because Hayden Young was rated higher.

Hayden young is an intercept defender, Kozzy Pickett is a small/medium forward.
If you're going to use a comparison at least make it between 2 guys fighting for the same position.

 

[Shinboner1]

Giants rate Darcy at pick 1 according to Twomey

weird

 

[blueiris]

weird

Why is it weird to prefer the Tall Giants have that Nick Diacos player already in Taranto

 

[Shinboner1]

Why is it weird to prefer the Tall Giants have that Nick Diacos player already in Taranto

Because neither will be going to GWS so needs of the side dont matter.
Bid on daicos at 2 vs 3 is a free late pick back to the pies.

 

[Knightmare]

Erasmus and Roberts are two mids.

Traded in SPS another.

Rookie a 24 yr old Bailey Rogers makes 4 mids.

Eagles need a Nic replacement and the guys behind him havent shown much at all.

Charlie Dean I really rate and is the type of tall defender the Eagles need. One who can actually defend. McGovern could be done in 2 years.

WCE might take Clark instead of Rogers if he makes it through to the rookie draft.

KM: why darcy before daicos when it hurts more to pick daicos first?
Its not like either are a chance to go to their bidding teams anyway.
POD: Yes greenwood is fantastic and because he was a super late mature ager he's just getting into his prime now.
Reckon he's got 3-5 years left in him.

GWS like Darcy but don't seem to intend to bid on Daicos in asking around. Not sure the rationale, but presumably they rate Callaghan more highly. Either that, or they're trying not to wreck their trade relationship with Collingwood after that trade that went so horribly wrong for Collingwood.

I feel Greenwood has a solid 3-4 years in him. He's a specialist, but great at what he does, with what he brings so valuable towards winning, not that he has ever played on a good team for that to be widely recognised.

Why would North take Motlop over Butler who is better? North LOVE multi role players who are quick, one touch players that are good defensively.
Are you saying Butler cant play the small crumbing role?
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View attachment 1285692

Butler can play as a crumbing/pressure forward. Ultimately, I rate them both 1 place apart in my extended power rankings. Butler has more midfield capabilities and does give that multi-position chance, though Motlop is the better crumbing forward at this stage with the better instincts around goal and brings the pressure to an even higher degree (a strength common with both).

Not having a specialist small forward is exactly the reason I'm predicting North Melbourne go that route, aside from the family link.

weird

GWS aren't the only club to rate Darcy #1.

Clubs like the rapid rate of improvement - particularly for someone at that height with his athletic profile and mix of attributes.

Some also play a higher price premium on KPPs than they do midfielders.

 

[Happy Mastenator]

If Giants don't bid on Daicos, then you'd think it was part of a *wink wink nudge nudge* deal that saw the Pies trade them their first rounder last year.

 

[GUMBLETRON]

If Giants don't bid on Daicos, then you'd think it was part of a *wink wink nudge nudge* deal that saw the Pies trade them their first rounder last year.

I feel like there is a tacit acceptance within recruiting that sometimes a club has already paid enough. Wherever the bid comes for Daicos, Collingwood have already given up pick 2. A similar case might be Tom Green, where GWS paid three first rounders to get into the top 4 and guarantee a pick ahead of the bid, which then didn't come until 10.

 

[Knightmare]

If Giants don't bid on Daicos, then you'd think it was part of a *wink wink nudge nudge* deal that saw the Pies trade them their first rounder last year.

I can't imagine Collingwood expected they'd finish second from the bottom last year. There is no way they would have moved the 2021 1st had that been the case.

 

[Rusty Beam]

Giants rate Darcy at pick 1 according to Twomey

Doesn’t surprise me in the slightest.

 

[Happy Mastenator]

I can't imagine Collingwood expected they'd finish second from the bottom last year. There is no way they would have moved the 2021 1st had that been the case.

Yeah, i guess it's more a case of the Pies now gently reminding GWS of their trading history and how it would be silly to jeopardise future possibilities by a shortsighted bid when they have already done so well out of last years trade.

 

[Shinboner1]

WCE might take Clark instead of Rogers if he makes it through to the rookie draft.



GWS like Darcy but don't seem to intend to bid on Daicos in asking around. Not sure the rationale, but presumably they rate Callaghan more highly. Either that, or they're trying not to wreck their trade relationship with Collingwood after that trade that went so horribly wrong for Collingwood.

I feel Greenwood has a solid 3-4 years in him. He's a specialist, but great at what he does, with what he brings so valuable towards winning, not that he has ever played on a good team for that to be widely recognised.



Butler can play as a crumbing/pressure forward. Ultimately, I rate them both 1 place apart in my extended power rankings. Butler has more midfield capabilities and does give that multi-position chance, though Motlop is the better crumbing forward at this stage with the better instincts around goal and brings the pressure to an even higher degree (a strength common with both).

Not having a specialist small forward is exactly the reason I'm predicting North Melbourne go that route, aside from the family link.

GWS aren't the only club to rate Darcy #1.

Clubs like the rapid rate of improvement - particularly for someone at that height with his athletic profile and mix of attributes.

Some also play a higher price premium on KPPs than they do midfielders.

Fair enough. People who I rate on the North forum say motlop just isn't that good. Wanted to hear your comparison between the 2 players.

 

[Knightmare]

Yeah, i guess it's more a case of the Pies now gently reminding GWS of their trading history and how it would be silly to jeopardise future possibilities by a shortsighted bid when they have already done so well out of last years trade.

There very well may be a bit of that.

Though GWS may genuinely rate Callaghan more highly. If looking at GWS' midfield, he's precisely what they lack, with the Giants lacking that speed and movement through traffic - with a lot of slower ball winners. I think that has also played a part in GWS' reluctance to trade down for a tall, even though there have been offers

Fair enough. People who I rate on the North forum say motlop just isn't that good. Wanted to hear your comparison between the 2 players.

Motlop is good at what he does. He's a specialist small forward. He's one of the best very for forward pressure this year, and is that natural crumber. Any club needing someone to fill that role late first/early second will have him on their shortlist.

 

[danster168]

Hayden young is an intercept defender, Kozzy Pickett is a small/medium forward.
If you're going to use a comparison at least make it between 2 guys fighting for the same position.

Sam Butler is going to be more of a mid than a forward pocket type so it's fine.

 

[Happy Mastenator]

There very well may be a bit of that.

Though GWS may genuinely rate Callaghan more highly. If looking at GWS' midfield, he's precisely what they lack, with the Giants lacking that speed and movement through traffic - with a lot of slower ball winners. I think that has also played a part in GWS' reluctance to trade down for a tall, even though there have been offers.

In a completely objective sense it's not a question though of who you rate more, it should be a question of how do you benefit your team the most.

That is by making the Dogs and Pies pay full freight given they will both match wherever the bid comes in. Really North should bid on both. Though understand the other factors that come into play such as the selling point of marketing a no. 1 pick to their members.

 

[GT619]

Good job on final draft.