Draft Expert Knightmare's 2021 Draft Almanac

[Chris25]

As a point of curiosity, and Pie 4 Life gave his take, but would you have done both trades the same and picked Sinn in Port Adelaide's situation? If you would have changed a detail, which detail would you have done differently?

As I said, if you want a player then go get that player. I’m not settling on a lesser player if I don’t have to.

 

[year of the cat]

How not to trade. The greatest Sinn committed during the 2021 AFL Offseason:

We all know the trade: Port Adelaide moving up two spots to secure Josh Sinn after trading their 2022 2nd round selection to make it happen. And that's following the Ladhams trade during the trade period to move up four spots.

Point of discussion: If you were the ultimate decision maker for Port Adelaide or Geelong in the case of their draft day trade with the Dogs. Would there be anything you would have done differently?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qygMPEItKGo

Time will ultimately tell from a Cats POV. But with the picks we had prior to the trade we could have gone Conway or Knevitt with 22, still Willis at 30, Taylor at 32 and Bazzo with 34. The fact that Taylor dropped so far makes me question whether the posters on BF had assessed him incorrectly? Again, time will tell.

What I do think is that by taking Conway with our first, Geelong have now acknowledged we are rebuilding. It will take a few years and will see us likely slide down the ladder but we have now started the process in earnest.

 

[Knightmare]

As I said, if you want a player then go get that player. I’m not settling on a lesser player if I don’t have to.

Was Sinn your personal preferred pick though? And if not, who was?

 

[Chris25]

Was Sinn your personal preferred pick though? And if not, who was?

It doesn’t matter who I would have taken. He was obviously Port’s preferred pick, so well done to them.

It sounds like your problem isn’t so much the trade, but who they traded up for. So we’re never going to agree. I’m in favour of the merit behind the trade, I don’t care about the pieces.

 

[petrolium]

Hi Knightmare, what is your opinion on Jhye Clark from Geelong Falcons and where do you think is his likely range for next year’s draft (I know it’s still early days)? Also interested in your opinion on Geelong’s reasoning for stockpiling on 3rd and 4th round picks for next year? (We don’t have any father-sons or NGA selections on the horizon). I believe we have 3 x R3 and 1 x R4 pick next year. Would we try to trade them to Brisbane for their R1 so they can get points for Ashcroft bid?

 

[Knightmare]

Time will ultimately tell from a Cats POV. But with the picks we had prior to the trade we could have gone Conway or Knevitt with 22, still Willis at 30, Taylor at 32 and Bazzo with 34. The fact that Taylor dropped so far makes me question whether the posters on BF had assessed him incorrectly? Again, time will tell.

What I do think is that by taking Conway with our first, Geelong have now acknowledged we are rebuilding. It will take a few years and will see us likely slide down the ladder but we have now started the process in earnest.

Geelong still secured Stengle as a DFA and Ceglar in the trade period. Geelong's approach seems a balanced one this offseason. Looking to both compete now and add talent for the future.

I was surprised no mature age key defender was targeted though, but we could still see Schlensog come back during the PSP as that one more.

 

[Knightmare]

It doesn’t matter who I would have taken. He was obviously Port’s preferred pick, so well done to them.

It sounds like your problem isn’t so much the trade, but who they traded up for. So we’re never going to agree. I’m in favour of the merit behind the trade, I don’t care about the pieces.

That's not adding anything to the discussion if you don't even have an opinion on who you felt was the best player there, or who you would have in the same situation gone after.

My problem with Port's trade is the methodology. As a methodology, paying that level of price premium twice for one talent is unwise.

The talent chosen wouldn't nearly have been my choice, but with the evenness of talent this year, that makes the aggression of the moves up all the more surprising.

Hi Knightmare, what is your opinion on Jhye Clark from Geelong Falcons and where do you think is his likely range for next year’s draft (I know it’s still early days)? Also interested in your opinion on Geelong’s reasoning for stockpiling on 3rd and 4th round picks for next year? (We don’t have any father-sons or NGA selections on the horizon). I believe we have 3 x R3 and 1 x R4 pick next year. Would we try to trade them to Brisbane for their R1 so they can get points for Ashcroft bid?

If I'm putting together a top-20, Clark would be in there, so he's early days in that first round mix.,

Extra picks next year just means added flexibility. It makes trades easier, be it for players, or to conduct pick swaps.

Gold Coast have an enormous draft hand for next year, so they'd be the front runners for Brisbane to be negotiating with, but Geelong could be another party if those picks are not going to be used for any other more specific purpose.

 

[year of the cat]

Geelong still secured Stengle as a DFA and Ceglar in the trade period. Geelong's approach seems a balanced one this offseason. Looking to both compete now and add talent for the future.

I was surprised no mature age key defender was targeted though, but we could still see Schlensog come back during the PSP as that one more.

Yes, to a degree. Stengle is still a kid so can be part of the next generation. Ceglar really brought in to support Stanley until one of our younger rucks is ready.

Was a little surprised we didn’t look at Dean with a late pick in the ND. As you say, I’m sure we will look at Schlensog closely over the next month or so.

 

[rumoursofwinter]

The fact that Johnson went at 21 shows that there was a distinct drop in rated talent after 13. Most phantoms had a defined top 14 including Johnson. Chesser went at 14, Aleer who was available in the mid season draft went at 15. I think there is too much emphasis on points rather than getting players you want on your list.

 

[Knightmare]

The fact that Johnson went at 21 shows that there was a distinct drop in rated talent after 13. Most phantoms had a defined top 14 including Johnson. Chesser went at 14, Aleer who was available in the mid season draft went at 15. I think there is too much emphasis on points rather than getting players you want on your list.

There will be differences from board to board. I actually had a top-2, a third, then a next three before an evening out.

As soon as Ward and Erasmus both were drafted, anything after Fremantle's second pick, I would have been looking to split for the best multi-pick combinations possible given at least my perception around the evenness from there.

In terms of how clubs saw it though, you're right, most would have seen those who went top-13, and then felt after that, it's basically that next group. Though there is variation from that, with some having Johnson as part of a top-15, with some also having Goater in there, with other clubs having other names. West Coast having Chesser in there, Brisbane having Wilmott in there etc.

The point I find people miss is every draft board from club to club really has its points of contrast with not all clubs viewing talent the same way. You can talk to clubs about who they would have taken at 1, and while I and many others online or in the media would say Darcy is the 3rd or in some cases possibly even the 4th best in the draft, a number of clubs with 1 would have taken Darcy. And the further you move down the draft, the more extreme the variation in rankings.

The draft can turn out a particular way and it can look like it's the consensus view that all clubs thought the same thing when that couldn't be further from the truth.

 

[M Malice]

My problem with Port's trade is the methodology. As a methodology, paying that level of price premium twice for one talent is unwise.

The talent chosen wouldn't nearly have been my choice, but with the evenness of talent this year, that makes the aggression of the moves up all the more surprising.

Port obviously had Josh Sinn rated a fair way in front of anybody else that would have been available a pick or 2 later so IMO it is irrelevant who the player is, it's the internal club rating that counts, kudos to Port for grabbing their man for me. Clubs see/rate talents differently.

eg. Brisbane rated Wilmot at 11 and at the draft function made it clear they would have taken him in front of Sinn, Chesser, Johnson and Hobbs if all were available at selection 16... kudos to Brisbane for me.

 

[Pie 4 Life]

Obviously Dodoro may have been fibbing or engaging in a bit of revisionist spin, but that’s not what his comments suggest. It implies Hobbs was always rated higher, they just didn’t expect him to be available.

“We had him ranked in the first six or seven [on our draft board],” Dodoro admitted at Marvel Stadium on Wednesday night.

“It’s quite funny because I said to Rob [Forster-Knight] today, I said ‘we’ve got to give this kid a call’, because the phone had rung a few times with a few clubs wanting our pick so I think word had got out he maybe, or someone was slipping through.

“It was a great surprise that he got through and I think he’s going to be a fabulous midfielder for us.”

Yeah that was very interesting… and very easy to say post-draft. We chatted to Josh and Campbell Chesser the day before. I’ll back in that they were picking Josh. Port would be even more in the know than even the draftees themselves, and if they were sure they’d get through to them, of course they wouldn’t trade.

 

[mrposhman]

Follow everyone else and you're never getting outsized returns.

It works both ways. Being a contrarian investor and going for say penny stocks, may have the opportunity for outsized returns, but also has a much greater chance of financial wipeout, and that works the same way with drafting.

If everyone is wanting to try to move up, yes its costly, but there is also the opportunity cost of what you are giving up.

 

[Knightmare]

It works both ways. Being a contrarian investor and going for say penny stocks, may have the opportunity for outsized returns, but also has a much greater chance of financial wipeout, and that works the same way with drafting.

If everyone is wanting to try to move up, yes its costly, but there is also the opportunity cost of what you are giving up.

I can't profess to being a penny stock expert. Never dabbled, and if I did, it would be in something I know and understand fully.

Any draft decision as with any financial decision is about risk/reward.

Moving back, as clubs pay excessive price premiums to move up is in general a concept I support as a way to diversify risk.

If I were a stock investor, I'd be looking at those high conviction companies and more-so taking the classic 'be greedy when everyone is fearful and fearful when everyone is greedy' stance. In the draft, everyone gets greedy and overpays to move up, and we can see it with the points index as to just how much of a price premium is paid to move up. I'd look in a draft sense to take full advantage of that greed. If I can get in bidding point terms a 1.35x or better return of better trading down and I feel I'm in that roughly same talent bracket, I like those odds.

So if I'm a Port Adelaide this year, I would have in the Ladhams trade if it was for picks looked to move it for let's say a second and a future second if I could. And with that existing first round pick, I'd have looked at Richmond and seen if I could get x2 of their 2nd round picks and another future 2nd if I could for the first.
That way I could get something more like Taylor/Draper/Roberts/Lord as a haul, with four players inside my top-23 while improving my position in the 2022 draft which with it holds added utility value for the trade period, and if not cashed in on then gives added flexibility for draft day to again either make more moves or secure talent in pretty good spots to be in, in the draft.

 

[Pie 4 Life]

Hey Knightmare I know you do a lot of your comparisons with Collingwood recruiters through our Hinesight thread, but seeing as you often compare your drafting efforts over the years to other clubs… which clubs do you think with in hindsight have drafted better or worse than your efforts?

Ie if you put yourself up against the 18 clubs and their national recruiting managers say over the past 5-10 years (however long you go back), which ones do you look at and rank your efforts ahead of, and which ones do you think ended up better than your efforts?

So if you’re a club national recruiter against the 18 AFL club recruiters, where would you rank yourself?

 

[Knightmare]

Hey Knightmare I know you do a lot of your comparisons with Collingwood recruiters through our Hinesight thread, but seeing as you often compare your drafting efforts over the years to other clubs… which clubs do you think with in hindsight have drafted better or worse than your efforts?

Ie if you put yourself up against the 18 clubs and their national recruiting managers say over the past 5-10 years (however long you go back), which ones do you look at and rank your efforts ahead of, and which ones do you think ended up better than your efforts?

So if you’re a club national recruiter against the 18 AFL club recruiters, where would you rank yourself?

A good question.

I haven't spent the time going through it but if there is the demand or interest I could well make it a topic for future exploration and explore how close or otherwise I have gotten. In putting together the Hinesight v Knightside v Hindsight thread annually, I'm not as far off as I'd expect when listing off all the names on the positive on both sides of the ledger.

There will be particular years I'll have particular clubs beat, so the value if I were to complete such an exercise would be from going through over an extended period of years - 10 years would suffice as the larger the sample size, the greater the accuracy. And to compare my results and go through some of the different players who would be there had I picked. I wouldn't expect to beat any clubs, as being one person outside of clubland and without all the resources they have at their disposal comparatively, I shouldn't be beating a whole recruiting department over an extended period of time with picking talent through the draft. If it were to work out there are one or two teams I beat, there are so many variables at play that impact player development, that it may not all be on the recruiters - eg. Gold Coast I actually on average don't mind how they draft but they have never in my view at least done a great job in developing their talent so their results won't be flattering compared to a Richmond or Hawthorn who have had great decades and developed talent beyond expectation as a result, with the great coaches and playing groups playing a major part in that.

I would expect to rank myself 19th, behind all clubs, but there would be one way of finding out.

I could also set myself a similar challenge in looking through all my trade and list management suggestions over the years if I can find a way to source all of them. And again, see if I compare at all competitively or otherwise.

If I get the sense there is the genuine interest, it's something I'm open to exploring, a bit like I did last year with my 3.5 hour biggest hits and misses mega-project from last off-season.

 

[liz]

So if I'm a Port Adelaide this year, I would have in the Ladhams trade if it was for picks looked to move it for let's say a second and a future second if I could.

You couldn't.

You are either misunderstanding or misrepresenting the trade that Port did with Ladhams in all this discussion about Port's approach to this year's draft (first round specifically).

 

[Knightmare]

You couldn't.

You are either misunderstanding or misrepresenting the trade that Port did with Ladhams in all this discussion about Port's approach to this year's draft (first round specifically).

I can't say I know how much Sydney would have forfeited in a trade for Port Adelaide had Port Adelaide asked for 2nd rounders. Would it have just been the one?

My starting point in negotiations would have been asking Sydney for either their first round pick or two second round picks and give them the opportunity as to which position they would like to start negotiating from. I'd be imagining they'd choose the latter route, and it would from there be about bringing in some later picks and pick swaps and see what can be arranged. And if it ends up at just the one second rounder, which is for me at least well unders for Ladhams, I do still look at that as a favourable return to the trade executed from a Port Adelaide perspective.

 

[DocSholl]

My problem with Port's trade is the methodology. As a methodology, paying that level of price premium twice for one talent is unwise.

Why though? They didn't give up any current draft capital, and they can always look to trade back into the 2022 draft if need be.

I don't think there is sense in settling for a lesser talent in order to protect a future pick, which will likely be in the 30s

 

[briztoon]

In other words you would have gone the same route as Port Adelaide?

As per in the video. It's a lot to give up.

In: Josh Sinn + Syd 2022 3rd
Out: Ladhams, Sheldrick and 2022 2nd

I didn't like the Ladhams trade firstly for such an inconsequential trade up as he's capable at AFL level and for mine can be a long term piece. Then the second trade is a lot to move up just two spots. Put the sum of the parts together, and it's certainly on paper not pretty.

You'd be wanting to view Sinn as a top-5 player in the draft to be able to justify all that given up.

My personal approach would have been entirely contrasting.

If I had to trade Ladhams for a pick/picks and couldn't get back a player as part of the deal that would help my best-22 get better, I'd have looked to add more picks, with a view towards a larger involvement inside the first and second round instead of just moving up an insignificant number of spots. And in the scenario, let's say Sinn was my preferred pick and I knew he wouldn't be there, I'd still rather move down and capitalise on clubs having their own targets and wanting to move up for them, getting better value that way.

It's such an even draft that I'd be letting all the clubs know, if you want to move up a few spots, the picks I'm holding I'm willing to move down if you make it worth my while either in the way of another second round pick or some worthwhile 2022 pick because of the evenness of this draft and not really missing out on much if your most preferred player isn't there.

*I'm just reading this now, but Essendon had planned Hobbs over Sinn making the trade unnecessary in the end: https://www.sen.com.au/news/2021/11/25/why-the-bombers-were-so-delighted-to-draft-hobbs/
*That is unless West Coast would have taken Hobbs or Sinn instead of Chesser had they not moved back.

And this is where you don’t understand list management for individual teams, which is to be expected, if you don’t follow clubs closely.

What you’d “like to get” probably isn’t on the table. Moving Ladhams on was about taking pressure off Ports salary cap. So the need was for Port to move Ladhams, and they were clearly happy to take “unders” to make that happen.

As mentioned previously, clubs prioritise list needs above best available, outside the very top bracket of players.

I can say with 100% certainty, that had Hobbs fallen to Brisbane’s pick, we were still taking Wilmot.

It’s not hard to find inside mids that can win the ball, but lack pace. If a club already has one or two, and Port has this bloke in there that recently won a Brownlow doing it, then they’re likely to prioritise other areas of their list.

Also, clubs typically don’t reveal what they plan to do, before they do it. There was a lot of talk that Essendon were likely to draft Sinn, before the draft occurred.

So Essendon used that to their advantage.

It’s also possible other teams were looking to trade up, so Port was making sure it was them.

Melbourne were trying to trade up for one of the half backs, but their first pick was to far back for teams to want to make the trade. It also sounds like Richmond were trying to trade up as well.

Lastly, there’s a change occurring in the game, and different skill sets are being valued more highly.

Something similar occurred in the late 90’s and 00’s in the nba, where the league slowly changed rules to make the game different and more attractive and “fun”.

There’s more emphasis being placed on speed on the outside, particularly in small/medium defenders and forwards.

You can find just about any position late in the draft, but the elite players of each position now go high.

You might value old school inside ball winners over other positions, but clubs don’t, if they don’t bring other skill sets or athletic abilities to the table these days.

 

[briztoon]

I can't say I know how much Sydney would have forfeited in a trade for Port Adelaide had Port Adelaide asked for 2nd rounders. Would it have just been the one?

My starting point in negotiations would have been asking Sydney for either their first round pick or two second round picks and give them the opportunity as to which position they would like to start negotiating from. I'd be imagining they'd choose the latter route, and it would from there be about bringing in some later picks and pick swaps and see what can be arranged. And if it ends up at just the one second rounder, which is for me at least well unders for Ladhams, I do still look at that as a favourable return to the trade executed from a Port Adelaide perspective.

Your missing the point.

Port was trying to trade Ladhams out.

Sydney wasn’t trying to trade Ladhams in.

Port went out and found a buyer (Sydney), then they had to come to a sale price that suited Sydney.

 

[briztoon]

I was supportive of Brisbane's move up for Robertson at that time, seeing him as a superior value choice at the time, though maybe I shouldn't have been and that's actually a trade I've been thinking a fair bit about a fair bit since, as it was really too much to give up.

What’s changed?

I can think of plenty of bad trades Brisbane has done over the last 3 drafts and trade periods.

That wasn’t one of them.

 

[liz]

I can't say I know how much Sydney would have forfeited in a trade for Port Adelaide had Port Adelaide asked for 2nd rounders. Would it have just been the one?

My starting point in negotiations would have been asking Sydney for either their first round pick or two second round picks and give them the opportunity as to which position they would like to start negotiating from. I'd be imagining they'd choose the latter route, and it would from there be about bringing in some later picks and pick swaps and see what can be arranged. And if it ends up at just the one second rounder, which is for me at least well unders for Ladhams, I do still look at that as a favourable return to the trade executed from a Port Adelaide perspective.

Sydney's starting point (at least publicly) was a future third. Late in the trade process they relented and also agreed to swap this year's first round picks. I am not sure why, since it was evident that Port had got themselves into a position where they needed Ladhams out. But maybe it was a goodwill gesture, or maybe they didn't think the downgrade of four places in this year's first round was that costly to them.

Using draft index points is a crude, approximate, unreliable and misguided way to value trades, but it has the advantage of providing a quantified ' starting point' for comparing trades. Your proposal of two second round picks is approximately twice as valuable for Port (or costly for Sydney) - in draft index points - as the trade they actually landed on. I'm sure Port would have preferred that. But they were never going to get it in the circumstances, as Britzoon has stated above.

Similarly, your assessment of Port's composite trade up for the Sinn pick as costing them Ladhams and a future second, makes no sense. I'm close to certain that Port didn't decide at the start of trading period that a goal was to move up a few places in the first round, and that to achieve that they were prepared to lose an otherwise wanted Ladhams. The first pick upgrade they achieved was just the outcome of their desire to get Ladhams off their list. The subsequent trade up for the Sinn pick was entirely separate.

 

[Prochard123]

Hi Knightmare,

Which draftees do you see playing frequently in the first half of 2022?

Obviously Nick Daicos, JHF. Who else? Ward potentially?

 

[bc27]

AFL Draft 2021 - Every club's draft haul rated and graded:



Point of discussion. Who should I have given a higher/lower grade to a why?

AFL Draft 2021 - Every club's draft haul rated

ESPN's AFL draft expert Chris Doerre analyses each team's performance at the 2021 AFL Draft and grades how each team fared.

www.espn.com.au

D+ for tigers is going to look pretty embarrassing in 5 years time.
But I do enjoy reading your stuff