Draft Expert Knightmare's 2021 Draft Almanac

[GroggSquad]

North Melbourne other than JHF didn't excite me, with Goater the only pick I don't hate.

Interesting - personally I thought Goater was best available at North’s 2nd pick and they nailed it like JHF.

Who should’ve they picked instead?

 

[Knightmare]

Interesting - personally I thought Goater was best available at North’s 2nd pick and they nailed it like JHF.

Who should’ve they picked instead?

Goater is #25 on my board, so certainly appropriate for selection in that range, but more-so for me fair value based on the risk/reward from my own talent evaluation.

The next few in my power rankings were Zac Taylor (12), Arlo Draper (17) and Mitch Owens (19). *Not taking in any hindsight as I didn't expect both Taylor or Draper would fall into the 40s so I'm not going to give myself the benefit of hindsight.

I'd have negotiated with Richmond about a move down for two of their three successive picks with a view to draft ideally Taylor and Draper, or if one or the other weren't there, Alistair Lord as a rebounding defender. And if I needed more time to negotiate with Richmond to find an offer that would work for them, I would have happily as the time runs low have placed a bid on Mitch Owens.

Taylor and Draper because of their skillsets and how they move and play while they're both great as midfielders, neither have to play as midfielders to be effective. And Lord who I'd have been picking after that I view as the best rebounding defender in the pool, so they're all players I'd consider complementary and contrasting to what North Melbourne currently have on their list.

 

[briztoon]

Gibcus is a liability as a key forward at this point in his development. I find it staggering Richmond would even flag that as a possibility. He has had a few games there and struggled to impact in each of those games to any degree this year.

If he's to be a success, it's as a key defender and one who focuses on going for intercept marks. He reads it better behind the ball. As a forward he isn't great at ground level and hasn't shown any of the key forward talent/instincts to be a success there.



GWS in their list build I found rather than going too heavy on midfielders instead went too heavy on key position players early on and paid the price for that. They took more than they needed, and a lot of them weren't ever worth first round picks and GWS weren't ever going to be able to make them into best-22 players. In their more recent list build, they have become midfielder heavy and have a lot of the same types in terms of those slower midfielders, but when you get Hopper and Green through their academy that's going to happen.

Now that GWS realise they have a lot of good midfielders but lack in other positions, as per my earlier suggestion, they need to explore trades and look at how they can through the trade and free agency period balance that list out and ultimately improve their best-22.

Where I'm coming from broadly speaking is not about my own personal power rankings, I'm drawing things back to methodology of list needs being met during trade/free agency/DFA periods, and as required with mature agers later on. Going early on need fillers should never be necessary as a concept because these other methods of recruitment should be able to yield you someone, with mature agers alone just about in any given year being able to give you any positional or stylistic type you could need, even if you're a club where you don't necessarily attract trade targets/free agents. It just means going more heavily towards mature agers because there are so many who are AFL standard today.

Still believe you need to look deeper in to why teams select the players they do.

From pick 5 on, almost all teams were picking for need at their selection. For some of those teams, best player available also happened to fill their need.

Attending the Lions draft function really opened my eyes on how clubs rank players. As I mentioned previously, all three picks the Lions made, they rated those kids much higher than where we actually selected them, so as far as our recruiters were concerned, we were selecting best player available at each selection.

 

[Souup]

Curtis can hit the scoreboard and is a strong mark on the lead, they're the big positives. So he is someone for my extended draft board I considered.

Why is he not there? He's allergic to winning his own ball, so that's going to limit him, both preventing him being viable to push into the midfield in the future, but also will make him easier at AFL level to defend.

Had the season continued, maybe I'd have Curtis higher, but I can only rate him on how he has played up until the Victorian campaign concluded unfortunately.

Hopefully for North Melbourne he can become something like a Daniel Menzel (minus the injuries). That's the rough developmental vision I'd be pursuing now that he's on the list and see how close to that he can get.

Tell me you haven't seen Curtis play without saying it explicitly. The highlighted is flat out wrong (can't win his own ball, Daniel Menzel as a comparison - are you kidding me?) or not close to summarising his strengths/positives as a player.

Embarrassing. Its ok to admit you've got no idea and haven't watched him enough.

 

[dee64]

Gibcus is a liability as a key forward at this point in his development. I find it staggering Richmond would even flag that as a possibility. He has had a few games there and struggled to impact in each of those games to any degree this year.

If he's to be a success, it's as a key defender and one who focuses on going for intercept marks. He reads it better behind the ball. As a forward he isn't great at ground level and hasn't shown any of the key forward talent/instincts to be a success there.



GWS in their list build I found rather than going too heavy on midfielders instead went too heavy on key position players early on and paid the price for that. They took more than they needed, and a lot of them weren't ever worth first round picks and GWS weren't ever going to be able to make them into best-22 players. In their more recent list build, they have become midfielder heavy and have a lot of the same types in terms of those slower midfielders, but when you get Hopper and Green through their academy that's going to happen.

Now that GWS realise they have a lot of good midfielders but lack in other positions, as per my earlier suggestion, they need to explore trades and look at how they can through the trade and free agency period balance that list out and ultimately improve their best-22.

Where I'm coming from broadly speaking is not about my own personal power rankings, I'm drawing things back to methodology of list needs being met during trade/free agency/DFA periods, and as required with mature agers later on. Going early on need fillers should never be necessary as a concept because these other methods of recruitment should be able to yield you someone, with mature agers alone just about in any given year being able to give you any positional or stylistic type you could need, even if you're a club where you don't necessarily attract trade targets/free agents. It just means going more heavily towards mature agers because there are so many who are AFL standard today.

When a club is actively looking to ship out a player, they end up getting 50 cents in the dollar. And how often do you see a direct player for player swap of high end talent? It's far more difficult for clubs like GWS to address their list issues via free agency and trades.

 

[Usayed Givashe]

AFL Draft 2021 - Every club's draft haul rated and graded:



Point of discussion. Who should I have given a higher/lower grade to a why?

AFL Draft 2021 - Every club's draft haul rated

ESPN's AFL draft expert Chris Doerre analyses each team's performance at the 2021 AFL Draft and grades how each team fared.

www.espn.com.au

I’ve seen some Mock drafts which had, Jason @1, Goater@ 12 & Curtis @22.

I prefer his take tbh.

If we had just taken Jason, we’d have A+.

 

[Prochard123]

Our recruiters said, if you go best available at every pick, you end up with a midfield top heavy team, with little quality in most of the other positions, like GWS.

Problem is Knightmare, you end up with the exact type of list and problems that teams who continually struggle to climb the ladder end up with.

I’ve got no issue with your rankings, they’re your personal opinion, but for non Victorian teams, list building requires a lot more than taking best available talent every time.

You are showing a clear lack of understanding of this "recruiter" you quoted.

What one should do is take best available in at least the 1st round, if not the 2nd round as well, and where there are 2-3 players with similar levels of ability, you pick the player that suits your list needs the most.

And for the later rounds, you can then target specific types of players - generally small pressure forwards, rebounding defenders, wingmen etc. And decent AFL standard draftees CAN often be found in the later rounds for less important positions

I also don't agree with your assessment of GWS' list. If anything they have constantly reached for lower-rated players that fit their list needs.

Their REAL problem is that through the sheer number of top end midfielders coming through, instead of having them compete for a certain number of spots. They are allowing them to play all over the ground (Tim Taranto forward, Tom Green forward, Callen Ward back, Whitfield back, Conigilio forward), which hampers the development of the small forwards/small defenders they do actually draft.

 

[RUNVS]

Despite never having heard of him 4 days ago I think Sheldrick is going to be an AA gun who I am very happy the Swans drafted

 

[Prochard123]

Honestly bravo Knightmare for responding to every comment in this thread, no matter how stupid, illogical and delusional they are. I probably would've lost my mind 5 minutes into reading through the garbage that has been posted.

"Knightmare has given Collingwood an A in the past 3 years, then why did Collingwood come 17th this year"

Yes because premierships are won based off the performances of new draftees in their 1st and 2nd years...

"How come you gave Richmond a D+ when the players were selected around where they were expected in the phantom draft"

Yes because phantom draft ranking = power ranking, we just call them different things for fun...

"But Knightmare, how can North Melbourne be given a B when they received JHF who is the best player in the draft blah blah blah"

Yes because your initial draft hand shouldn't be taken into account when grading the club's drafting performance... Even Ned Guy probably could've selected JHF with the #1 pick...

Also no surprise that 2 of these 3 comments came from posters I have previously blocked

 

[Ancient Tiger]

The power ranking is extremely difficult if not impossible to get right. There are so many things that will influence the progression of a player that it is almost a fruitless effort. Things like player growth both mental and physical can vary enormously. Their environment will influence their maturation unequivocally. Even their environment can change with different line coaches getting the best out of them too. There are so many random variables you are just setting yourself up to be shot down.
Anyway, kudos to you for putting your testicles on the line and trying to make the call.

 

[Shinboner1]

Despite never having heard of him 4 days ago I think Sheldrick is going to be an AA gun who I am very happy the Swans drafted

He's been pretty highly rated in some circles. Good contested player who wins his own ball.

 

[Knightmare]

Still believe you need to look deeper in to why teams select the players they do.

From pick 5 on, almost all teams were picking for need at their selection. For some of those teams, best player available also happened to fill their need.

Attending the Lions draft function really opened my eyes on how clubs rank players. As I mentioned previously, all three picks the Lions made, they rated those kids much higher than where we actually selected them, so as far as our recruiters were concerned, we were selecting best player available at each selection.

If you're not picking guys you rate much higher than the pick you're using to take them, reviews of the drafting processes need to take place.

Tell me you haven't seen Curtis play without saying it explicitly. The highlighted is flat out wrong (can't win his own ball, Daniel Menzel as a comparison - are you kidding me?) or not close to summarising his strengths/positives as a player.

Embarrassing. Its ok to admit you've got no idea and haven't watched him enough.

If you read through my weekly wraps, you'll find I report on games Curtis was playing in and he's a player I've watched both in NAB League and for Vic Metro. His strengths are as I outlined if you take the time to watch through his games..

When a club is actively looking to ship out a player, they end up getting 50 cents in the dollar. And how often do you see a direct player for player swap of high end talent? It's far more difficult for clubs like GWS to address their list issues via free agency and trades.

Often times. Though when no appropriate offers are there, you retain and wait until there is in a future season, as clubs will always want good footballers.

Honestly bravo Knightmare for responding to every comment in this thread, no matter how stupid, illogical and delusional they are. I probably would've lost my mind 5 minutes into reading through the garbage that has been posted.

"Knightmare has given Collingwood an A in the past 3 years, then why did Collingwood come 17th this year"

Yes because premierships are won based off the performances of new draftees in their 1st and 2nd years...

"How come you gave Richmond a D+ when the players were selected around where they were expected in the phantom draft"

Yes because phantom draft ranking = power ranking, we just call them different things for fun...

"But Knightmare, how can North Melbourne be given a B when they received JHF who is the best player in the draft blah blah blah"

Yes because your initial draft hand shouldn't be taken into account when grading the club's drafting performance... Even Ned Guy probably could've selected JHF with the #1 pick...

Also no surprise that 2 of these 3 comments came from posters I have previously blocked

There is a general convenience to the points people pick out re. my views on Collingwood when there is no one in the media in any capacity, or even on YouTube than I who exposed Collingwood's trade period to the same extent last year I can't imagine.

On Collingwood as with any team, when they do well, I'll say as much, and when they do something stupid, I'll call them out for it and give my take on what they should have done instead.

 

[Souup]

If you read through my weekly wraps, you'll find I report on games Curtis was playing in and he's a player I've watched both in NAB League and for Vic Metro. His strengths are as I outlined if you take the time to watch through his games..

I work in recruitment for a team and can guarantee I have watched and rewatched most prospects at least two or three times more than you have. So yes I've taken time to watch through all of his games, several times.

Your run down on Curtis is lazy and reads like someone who has barely watched him play.

 

[RUNVS]

I work in recruitment for a team and can guarantee I have watched and rewatched most prospects at least two or three times more than you have. So yes I've taken time to watch through all of his games, several times.

Your run down on Curtis is lazy and reads like someone who has barely watched him play.

So instead of complaining about other people who are putting in the effort why don't you contribute something if you know so much about the players.

 

[Knightmare]

I work in recruitment for a team and can guarantee I have watched and rewatched most prospects at least two or three times more than you have. So yes I've taken time to watch through all of his games, several times.

Your run down on Curtis is lazy and reads like someone who has barely watched him play.

I can't say I'm in as fortunate of a position to re-watch NAB League games as it sounds like you are, as the games this year sadly aren't on YouTube for the draft enthusiasts in the public to enjoy replays of - which for the other competitions I have continued to look back at in the leadup to the draft. I have though in my wisdom with all the state games saved and re-watched those.

In looking back over my notes and reviewing his stats, the statement I will retract is around his contested work, with his contested possessions dramatically higher than I thought they would be in % terms. The game of his I most recently reviewed and this is the last picture of his play I have in mind is of his Metro v Country trial where he was taking some strong marks and a meaningful threat on the lead i50 and after Darcy was that next best avenue to goal + set up a few. His contested numbers 9cp/8up surprise me as it felt like a much less contested game from him. And looking at his NAB League game stats, again, and I'm surprised in checking the stats, and it's largely due to how little ball he finds, but he actually wins more than 50% contested. So my initial comments were completely wrong around the contested side to his game.

 

[Knightmare]

The best value picks of the 2021 AFL Draft:

Biggest bargain I had: Zac Taylor - pick 44 but 12 in my rankings.

Point of discussion: Who were your top value picks?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kzj2Z37neLk&t=606s

 

[Rusty Beam]

I work in recruitment for a team

Ah, the old unfalsifiable statement…

 

[Shinboner1]

The best value picks of the 2021 AFL Draft:

Biggest bargain I had: Zac Taylor - pick 44 but 12 in my rankings.

Point of discussion: Who were your top value picks?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kzj2Z37neLk&t=606s

Taylor fell super low, I was surprised North didn't pick him up.

 

[Knightmare]

Taylor fell super low, I was surprised North didn't pick him up.

He did fall low.

North Melbourne went midfield happy early last year. I wouldn't have been surprised had he been targeted again, given the Moneyball feel to some of North Melbourne's recent recruiting, but not so. But they wanted positionally different players more.

 

[Shinboner1]

He did fall low.

North Melbourne went midfield happy early last year. I wouldn't have been surprised had he been targeted again, given the Moneyball feel to some of North Melbourne's recent recruiting, but not so. But they wanted positionally different players more.

I think its more get guys with huge endurance bases and then you have the ability to play them anywhere.
Midfielders generally have this hence why we've selected a few who play the position.
Obviously the club is building from the middle outwards which is probably the best way to do it when you've got a younger group.
If taylor could play small forward we might have picked him, luff and co love the smart players.

 

[AnEmptyChair]

Ah, the old unfalsifiable statement…

If you'd spent any time in the draft threads on the North board over the last 18 months then you would know Souup is absolutely legit when he says that and knows his stuff. He's been an invaluable draft resource over there since about mid-2020.

 

[Knightmare]

I think its more get guys with huge endurance bases and then you have the ability to play them anywhere.
Midfielders generally have this hence why we've selected a few who play the position.
Obviously the club is building from the middle outwards which is probably the best way to do it when you've got a younger group.
If taylor could play small forward we might have picked him, luff and co love the smart players.

Curtis doesn't have a high endurance base and nor does Goater of North Melbourne's picks. They've both got work to put in, in that respect.

 

[Boyd oh Boyd]

Despite never having heard of him 4 days ago I think Sheldrick is going to be an AA gun who I am very happy the Swans drafted

I watched the Colts grand final yesterday just to see our draftee Jones play. Sheldrick was incredible, easily best on ground imo.

 

[Knightmare]

I watched the Colts grand final yesterday just to see our draftee Jones play. Sheldrick was incredible, easily best on ground imo.

If you watch the beating Sheldrick cops that game. That's the most impressive thing. All throughout, he was targeted with bush-league tactics. I've made this observation from this game a number of times now, but he's at one stage on hands and knees and cops an unsportsmanlike knee to the ribs/guts.

He's a hard kid and plays a highly competitive brand of football. Along with Horne-Francis, he's one of those guys where you would love to have him on your team but would hate lining up against him with the way he goes about his football and the fair aggression he plays with.

 

[Blackhawk42]

The best value picks of the 2021 AFL Draft:

Biggest bargain I had: Zac Taylor - pick 44 but 12 in my rankings.

Point of discussion: Who were your top value picks?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kzj2Z37neLk&t=606s

Definitely Taylor. Can't believe he fell so low. Think he'll be quite similar to Caleb Daniel in making his low selection look quite silly.

Having seen Ned Long linked to Hawthorn in a couple of Phantom Drafts inside the top 30, I cannot believe we snagged him as a rookie.

Knightmare why do you believe Long fell so low considering he was highly rated by some observers?

I'm so happy with Hawthorns haul. Genuinely think Josh Ward and Connor MacDonald will develop into players like Zach Merrett and Mitch Duncan respectively. Sam Butler adds some X-factor and looks a fantastic potential long-term replacement for Luke Breust. Serong also has great upside so landing him in the 50's was great business as well.