Draft Expert Knightmare's 2021 Draft Almanac

[eDPS]

Bondi Uwland after seeing his performance for Gold Coast on the weekend I'd find hard not to include, he's seriously good

Welcome to the club!

 

[Knightmare]

Welcome to the club!

What do you see as Bodhi's upside in this draft?

First round? Top-10? Top-5?

I'm mighty tempted to put him straight into my top-10 already which I don't like doing so soon, but if he keeps performing like that, he could make my top-5, so when I'm thinking that immediately that high end, I need to have him somewhere. He made a big first impression on me on the weekend. It's rare someone can kick as well as he can, yet play with his aggression, have those ball winning components and break tackles like that.

I'm really looking forward to seeing more.

 

[eDPS]

What do you see as Bodhi's upside in this draft?

First round? Top-10? Top-5?

I'm mighty tempted to put him straight into my top-10 already which I don't like doing so soon, but if he keeps performing like that, he could make my top-5, so when I'm thinking that immediately that high end, I need to have him somewhere. He made a big first impression on me on the weekend. It's rare someone can kick as well as he can, yet play with his aggression, have those ball winning components and break tackles like that.

I'm really looking forward to seeing more.

It’s very early so it’s hard to tell with his range let alone most players draft range. It’s his athleticism that sets him apart for me, toughness and athleticism are highly rated traits in modern footy and helps that he can also use the ball aswell.

 

[Chris25]

Not sure whether Cal has just not seen Jackson Callow this year or doesn't rate him. If we're talking immediate performance, Callow is ahead of the entire pool with only maybe Daicos in the same conversation at this point. If we're talking career projections, if I'm to re-do my power rankings, Callow is inside my top-10.

Probably a bit too late, but let's not get carried away.

Callow has had two good games, against two of the bottom sides in the SANFL. Before that, he averaged 1 goal and 1 contested mark a game across the first 5 weeks of the season. With 63 inside 50s versus 35, it didn't really matter which Crows back ups were playing on him. At the moment, he's still the same player who was 50/50 to be drafted last year. Same strengths, same weaknesses. Still shapes as a defender I feel.

That said, I think he gets picked up. Partly because of dominating against bad opposition these last two weeks, partly because there are few other tall options - hence Wylie Buzza being looked at again.

 

[Knightmare]

Probably a bit too late, but let's not get carried away.

Callow has had two good games, against two of the bottom sides in the SANFL. Before that, he averaged 1 goal and 1 contested mark a game across the first 5 weeks of the season. With 63 inside 50s versus 35, it didn't really matter which Crows back ups were playing on him. At the moment, he's still the same player who was 50/50 to be drafted last year. Same strengths, same weaknesses. Still shapes as a defender I feel.

That said, I think he gets picked up. Partly because of dominating against bad opposition these last two weeks, partly because there are few other tall options - hence Wylie Buzza being looked at again.

Buzza I wouldn't re-draft. He's a high end state leaguer/depth only guy for AFL purposes, and a barely serviceable one at that. Given his age, he shouldn't be on club radars given that's his standard of performance. He's not even the most appealing tall on that Werribee team, with the younger Hudson Garoni while not someone I'm advocating either at this point not far behind on current performance. And Garoni is actually one I'd be curious about seeing make a switch into defence as with his contested marking I think he could be really good back there. If I wanted someone who can play a combo ruck/fwd role, Brayden Crossley who is again younger is by far a superior option. If I wanted a mature age key forward and I wanted instant goalkicking, Tyler Keitel and Matt Hammelmann are while not perfect, still better options. So there should be no need for clubs to even discuss a Buzza.

The only component of your analysis I can agree with you on Callow is that he could be better as a key defender. I've mentioned it numerous times, but I think his attributes make him perfectly suited to playing as a key defender. On his standard of play though, I think there is also a lot you're missing, and I haven't just been watching Callow's past two games. If you watched Norwood v South Adelaide for one example. I tuned into that game hoping to see a lot from Horne that game, he was almost invisible (pressured well but did nothing else) while Callow kept bobbing up and impressing me and having 5x the impact. Callow doesn't need to be taking marks or kicking goals to impact games (he still took two contested marks that game and kicked his goal) but my takeaway from that game is Callow aside from those components, and I've continued to see the same from him is he plays a good team role, even in the SANFL. He's crashing packs, bringing it to ground, he's bringing teammates into games and playing unselfish football. He's impacting games without needing touches. That's invaluable. And when he does get his touches, it's contested and influential, and it's been the same story in each of the four games I've seen of him this year so far.

Your comment on Callow 'being the same player' I further disagree on. What you're missing is he has shifting his strengths and points of difference up a gear (his bodywork 1v1, his contested marking, protected of the drop of the ball are all next level now and against better opposition), and has turned areas where he has shown competence into areas of strength. Whether it's doing those team things - crashing packs, bringing it to ground, to actually having really good vision and skills hitting targets i50. His kick placement is terrific and to the advantage of his teammates every time. That's becoming a weapon. And these past two weeks, his work rate has shown improvement. I'm finding in terms of his leap, he's not ground bound and seems to be getting some more hangtime. So his game is looking a lot more polished and he's really showing with his game that attention to detail to be making the significant strides he is making, even after being so advanced already before this season. I'd also add that Callow is one of the rare players, where if he gets 10 disposals and 5 marks, it feels like he has gone for 20 disposals and 10 marks because he you can really feel his impact, and when as he has these past two weeks, including in rain a couple of weeks ago he's getting the numbers he is, he's making the SANFL as a competition look like a joke and like he's a man playing against children, such is his influence.

 

[theGav56]

You're right with GCS and GWS and they're good counter points. Not everyone wants to go up there and not everyone wants to stay, particularly in the case of GWS where there is so much replication of the same types and competition for the same spots.

GWS of those two teams I'd find easier to manage the balance because it would be a lot of trading out replicating players for players who fill list holes. The other key is building them into a winning team to encourage players to not only stay, but sign on for less money. If guys ask for too much, that's when I'd use it as an opportunity to let those guys go and rebalance the list accordingly - ideally through trade/free agency, but where that is not possible if the right players can't be attracted at the right price, it might mean using some picks on mature agers who are good enough to fill those list holes.

GCS in some respects are more challenging though the point of going after undervalued players is either offering them an enhanced role or offering them a best-22 spot which they don't currently have. There will always be some who still don't want to join, but there are still often others who can play those same roles or positions who can be called next. What I've liked with Gold Coast is their use of early picks and picks more broadly has actually been pretty good. It's instead their ID of rival talent I've found poor, often bringing in depth guys who were never going to provide best-22 value. If they want experience from other teams, go get guys who can be best-22 players and slot into positions that don't look set to be occupied by their existing youth. Last offseason an opportunity that was apparent was Adam Treloar. WBD didn't have the salary cap space or the picks to provide a suitable offer, and had Gold Coast been firm on their interest, he might have been gettable. Again as with my ideas for GWS, if those rival talents don't want to join and those needs can't be filled during the trade/free agency periods in a particular year, go to the draft and make sure you have the right mature agers identified who are plug and play. Then the youth through the draft can be a best available focus, particularly early on.

Fremantle again fit into the - if guys don't want to come across, and in theory the two SA and WA clubs should actually have the easiest times attracting talent as their states produce the most talent relative to the number of clubs existing in those states, but if they can't fill those list needs, again it means being all over the mature age talent is vital to fill those list needs late/rookie so that those early picks can be used on the best players.

Your comments regarding destination clubs I happen to agree with. They do appeal more on average. Doesn't mean those other clubs can't attract talent but it can be a relatively harder sell. And maybe that means those destination clubs have a slightly higher weighting towards rival talent ID v those clubs that don't tend to appeal as much with more of a weighting in their recruiting department towards mature age talent ID.

As a recruiting team structure. I've mentioned it before. But I'd have an equal balance across opposition talent ID, state league talent ID and junior talent ID. Junior talent ID focus should be on early picks predominantly. Opposition talent ID on those undervalued types who you can get for less than what you'd be willing to pay (so early picks can be retained or even added to) and won't take up too much salary cap space where possible with flexibility of future list movement a priority and state league talent can be added with a combination of late/rookie picks, sometimes mid-draft picks even where practical, with the mid-season draft also added to the value of mature age recruitment, as another opportunity to add more of it.

My only real point is that trading is not an equal platform for clubs. Again using Fremantle, but it certainly would apply to multiple other clubs, we are likely to pay a significantly higher price to keep Cerra than the likes of Richmond, Carlton or Geelong would. And in reverse, attracting a player into the club also involves outbidding others.

And again with Fremantle, balancing the list via trading has historically lead to high risk taking in the form of flakey, flawed players. Croad , Tarrant, Modra, Sylvia, Gumbleton, Hogan, Bennel. Very few of the best 22 recruits have provided value, although Hill, Farmer, Hamling, Lobb, MacPharlin, Aish and Bell are some who have been decent.

I’m not pleading for sympathy either, just highlighting why some clubs must use the draft as a mechanism for balancing a list.

 

[Chris25]

He's making the SANFL as a competition look like a joke

Yeah I’ve seen enough of him this year to be comfortable with my analysis and not get sucked into hyperbole. He’s draftable, not the second coming.

 

[Great8]

Draper very good again today

 

[Polo342]

Hey Knightmare. At this stage what picks would Vanrooyen and Jack Williams go at or around?

 

[Knightmare]

My only real point is that trading is not an equal platform for clubs. Again using Fremantle, but it certainly would apply to multiple other clubs, we are likely to pay a significantly higher price to keep Cerra than the likes of Richmond, Carlton or Geelong would. And in reverse, attracting a player into the club also involves outbidding others.

And again with Fremantle, balancing the list via trading has historically lead to high risk taking in the form of flakey, flawed players. Crowd, Tarantino, Modra, Sylvia, Gumbleton, Hogan, Bennel. Very few of the best 22 recruits have provided value, although Hill, Farmer, Hamling, Lobb, MacPharlin, Aish and Bell are some who have been decent.

I’m not pleading for sympathy either, just highlighting why some clubs must use the draft as a mechanism for balancing a list.

If clubs need to pay more to retain talent, I still wouldn't go down the avenue of overpaying. I'd be about setting a culture of paying players fairly, but never more than they're worth, and on shorter deals to ensure there are no bad contracts on the books. Players who don't want that can go, and that would mean higher than normal rate of players moving. But that just means opposition talent ID and mature age talent ID is all the more important as it's about then finding those replacement players and undervalued players elsewhere who can provide better value. And once the team becomes a winning team, that's when more players would want to stay, and that destination status can be garnered.

If you're a WA or SA team, it will on average be harder to attract talent who were born and raised in other states (not impossible if you can provide them with a superior value proposition and opportunity they won't get elsewhere from a role perspective), but otherwise you'd be keeping a close eye on those on other teams from your home state which is still a reasonable number.

With the vast majority of those Dockers who didn't have success who you just mentioned, injuries played a part. I'd care less about history of trading success and more on having the people internally assessing rival talent with the view that it's every bit as valuable of an opportunity to improve your list as the draft is.

Draper very good again today

Draper has been fairly consistent and is definitely one of the better players running around in the SA U18s.

Hey Knightmare. At this stage what picks would Vanrooyen and Jack Williams go at or around?

Van Rooyen I think goes in the second half of the first round most likely. Williams could be in the second round mix. I actually prefer Williams, but as a stronger bodied marking type without freak athleticism, I hope he doesn't drop further.

 

[huludicidal]

Knightmare Have you seen much of Patrick Parnell? Obviously he’s got some work to do in the gym, but do you see an AFL player there? Crows look like a strong chance of picking him up with our second selection in the mid season draft if rumours are to be believed (and if he’s still available).

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare Have you seen much of Patrick Parnell? Obviously he’s got some work to do in the gym, but do you see an AFL player there? Crows look like a strong chance of picking him up with our second selection in the mid season draft if rumours are to be believed (and if he’s still available).

I'm a Parnell fan. He has been really impressive with the drive and rebound he generates across half-back. Good speed, penetrating and damaging kick. Despite how small and light he is, he has surprised me with his competitiveness 1v1. Can endorse.

 

[huludicidal]

I'm a Parnell fan. He has been really impressive with the drive and rebound he generates across half-back. Good speed, penetrating and damaging kick. Despite how small and light he is, he has surprised me with his competitiveness 1v1. Can endorse.

We lack damaging field kicking, so I’m all for this type of player.

While I’m here Knightmare, how do you rate our likely first selection, Ollie Davis?

 

[Knightmare]

We lack damaging field kicking, so I’m all for this type of player.

While I’m here Knightmare, how do you rate our likely first selection, Ollie Davis?

Draftable but not my first choice. He can win and find the footy and has shown he goes fine at SANFL League level. He's a good footballer and a real tryer, but just nothing extraordinary. Low impact per possession (he can get 30d and it feels like he has had 20d). No meaningful point of difference. Not quick. Not damaging by foot. No clear second position. He's not my taste and more someone I'd be recruiting for my state league team than my AFL list if I'm list manager.

If I wanted a midfielder, there are others I'd take ahead of him. But at the same time, it's not a pick if Adelaide made where I'd be necessarily saying it's a poor pick either as there will be many worse players taken this MSD.

 

[huludicidal]

Draftable but not my first choice. He can win and find the footy and has shown he goes fine at SANFL League level. He's a good footballer and a real tryer, but just nothing extraordinary. Low impact per possession (he can get 30d and it feels like he has had 20d). No meaningful point of difference. Not quick. Not damaging by foot. No clear second position. He's not my taste and more someone I'd be recruiting for my state league team than my AFL list if I'm list manager.

If I wanted a midfielder, there are others I'd take ahead of him. But at the same time, it's not a pick if Adelaide made where I'd be necessarily saying it's a poor pick either as there will be many worse players taken this MSD.

Yes, I had noticed his complete lack of damage factor by foot and wasn’t convinced it was a great list fit, especially when you consider who else we have on our list (Hately, Keays, M Crouch and even Laird are all somewhere between average and poor by foot).

I suspect maybe we are resigned to M Crouch departing via free agency, so maybe that’s part of the appeal (a true extractor, bearing in mind Sloane is approaching the end too).

Still, Davis is definitely not what I would be targeting for our list. I’d prefer Parnell over Davis, and I’d also prefer a small forward with genuine pace and defensive skills in the midseason draft (is there one you would recommend who has nominated?), and/or a 200cm+ ruck
prospect with agility before I even looked at an inside mid with average skills and pace.

 

[Knightmare]

Yes, I had noticed his complete lack of damage factor by foot and wasn’t convinced it was a great list fit, especially when you consider who else we have on our list (Hately, Keays, M Crouch and even Laird are all somewhere between average and poor by foot).

I suspect maybe we are resigned to M Crouch departing via free agency, so maybe that’s part of the appeal (a true extractor, bearing in mind Sloane is approaching the end too).

Still, Davis is definitely not what I would be targeting for our list. I’d prefer Parnell over Davis, and I’d also prefer a small forward with genuine pace and defensive skills in the midseason draft (is there one you would recommend who has nominated?), and/or a 200cm+ ruck
prospect with agility before I even looked at an inside mid with average skills and pace.

Adelaide have a lot of needs. A tall/big bodied mid would be top of my shopping list. Adelaide's midfield is tiny. Midfield class and hurt factor as you say along with a small forward with brings that defensive side. They're all desperately missing ingredients.

O'Loughlin through NGA as a small rebounding defender doesn't make Parnell essential through the MSD, so even he is more a nice to have who by position/type just happens to be good. But some upgrades in defense would definitely be welcome with Adelaide's defense still a building unit in need of a few more good pieces, with a lot of Adelaide's developing defenders more-so looking passable than good.

 

[THE_GUN]

Hi KM interested in your thoughts and opinion on Ned Long
where do you see him being drafted and player comparison 5 years on.

also would you know of any footage of him or his games

 

[Boots73]

Hi Km with the Eagles looking like they might finish in the bottom part of the top 8 or even just outside the 8.
We are in desperate need of injection of quality mids !
Who do you see us looking at in that range & we also have a couple of 2nd rounders
Cheers mate

 

[Knightmare]

Hi KM interested in your thoughts and opinion on Ned Long
where do you see him being drafted and player comparison 5 years on.

also would you know of any footage of him or his games

There are no NAB League replays, so you'll have to either watch the game live at the venue or watch the games through the ap.

My thoughts and feelings on Long are still emerging. Have only seen one game of him to date, saw Northern on the weekend but Long wasn't out there. He's handy because he's that tall ball winning mid, can get forward and take a mark and kick a goal. What I did find on the negative though is I didn't feel his influence was necessarily as high as his numbers suggest should have been the case, so that's something on the other side of the equation I'll be watching for.

Perhaps some obscure names, but he's somewhere inbetween where I projected Connor McFadyen and Mitch Podhajski respectively in their draft years. *Mitch is still running around in the VFL while McFadyen has had his injuries and has yet to play for Brisbane. So if either of them were to develop, that's the kind of thing I'd be thinking Long becomes. Based on his height and forward of centre capabilities, he has some Fyfe in terms of some of the things he can do, he's just not on that level which is why I'm saying more like McFadyen/Podhajski.

Hi Km with the Eagles looking like they might finish in the bottom part of the top 8 or even just outside the 8.
We are in desperate need of injection of quality mids !
Who do you see us looking at in that range & we also have a couple of 2nd rounders
Cheers mate

Mid first round a Matthew Johnson is one I could see being available as a tall mid with some developable traits. Josh Sinn if he slipped would offer excellent value. Connor MacDonald is another also to listen out for, though it may be the earlier part of his range.

Second round guys like local talents Joshua Browne and Max Chipper could be considered. Neil Erasmus if he slid would offer value, as would Ned Long and Hugh Jackson if there. To get you started with some names to listen out for.

In the first round the midfielders are reasonable, though second round I'd more-so be wanting some of the ones I like to slide.

 

[GWS Goose]

I don't see how Max King can be rated ahead of Allen. King drops many many marks. Oscar drops few. Oscar is a far better shot at goal. More versatile. And seems quicker on a lead.

If King got the third defender (a luxury that Allen gets due to Darling and Kennedy) and Allen got the best defender it may look different.
Both good talents.

 

[Knightmare]

If King got the third defender (a luxury that Allen gets due to Darling and Kennedy) and Allen got the best defender it may look different.
Both good talents.

They do different things. King is a contested marking beast and is incredible 1v1. As he gets stronger, he's only going to become more dominant.

Allen is the more mobile.

They each serve a purpose and they're both players you'd want on your team needless to say.

If St Kilda or West Coast suggest they don't want them, I'd be enquiring into the ask price in a hurry. Doesn't mean I'd pay up as valuations on premier key forwards tend to be overboard from clubs, but I'd be asking at the very least.

 

[maverick001]

Oscar (third forward) plays against the third defender.... who usually isn’t good 1v1. Max (first forward) plays against the first defender who is the best 1v1 defender on his team. They play very different roles and face very different opposition.

Flipside of this is that Max would (I imagine) be the target going inside 50 a lot more than Allen.

 

[Knightmare]

AFL Mid-Season Draft. How every club can fill their most pressing list need: https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_...y-afl-club-needs-do-2021-mid-season-afl-draft

 

[PMBangers]

AFL Mid-Season Draft. How every club can fill their most pressing list need: https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_...y-afl-club-needs-do-2021-mid-season-afl-draft

Can't say I watch a lot of other teams, but if your assessment of the GIANTS needs and possible target is an indication I reckon you'll have a few complaints, we're well and truly stocked for medium/ small defenders

 

[weltschmerz]

AFL Mid-Season Draft. How every club can fill their most pressing list need: https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_...y-afl-club-needs-do-2021-mid-season-afl-draft

We're desperately in need of a plug and play key defender. Crumbing forward too, I like Thorne a lot, but Weightman is doing well in that role. If we had a spot I think we'd be more likely to take a tall.