Draft Expert Knightmare's 2021 Draft Almanac

[Turbocat]

Stagg has put up consistent numbers to date. That said, I'm not expecting Stagg feature inside the first round at this stage.

Thats fine as Gee do not have any R1 picks... Im looking for player or two that may represent value and slip thru to the 20's. Considering Parfitt and Guthrie , I think if one is lucky and careful good players can be found.

 

[Jazny]

Why Jackson Callow went undrafted and how he exposes an AFL recruiting blind spot:

Was a weird draft year last year. Chugg not good enough to play for Launceston at the start of the year and gets drafted, Callow looking like he was one of the better players in the TSL, and didnt get drafted.

 

[Pie 4 Life]

Why Jackson Callow went undrafted and how he exposes an AFL recruiting blind spot:

In the video you mentioned Callow was likely Top 10 player in your Power Rankings and also mentioned how he was the more dominant SANFL player compared to Jason Horne. Does that mean that if Callow was to continue his form at SANFL level (presuming he is undrafted mid-season draft), that he could theoretically force his way ahead of Horne in your Power Rankings?

 

[Knightmare]

Thats fine as Gee do not have any R1 picks... Im looking for player or two that may represent value and slip thru to the 20's. Considering Parfitt and Guthrie , I think if one is lucky and careful good players can be found.

He should be there for Geelong. One to watch out for.

Was a weird draft year last year. Chugg not good enough to play for Launceston at the start of the year and gets drafted, Callow looking like he was one of the better players in the TSL, and didnt get drafted.

Seeing Chugg picked really caught me by surprise.

I'd caught onto the big bodied KPP thing a number of years ago and was just hoping for Callow clubs were sensible enough not to dismiss him due to their typical tendencies, but not so.

In the video you mentioned Callow was likely Top 10 player in your Power Rankings and also mentioned how he was the more dominant SANFL player compared to Jason Horne. Does that mean that if Callow was to continue his form at SANFL level (presuming he is undrafted mid-season draft), that he could theoretically force his way ahead of Horne in your Power Rankings?

Having seen four games of both Horne and Callow so far this year, a point I will make is, Horne's best game neither matches nor exceeds the worst of Callow's games this year. Callow is BY FAR the better footballer today and is in an entirely different category.

That said. The required context people need to understand is: Callow is a year older. He's also much more physically developed for his age relative to Horne who by contrast is still developing physically and as a footballer, and a lot further from who he will in time hopefully become.

If Callow were to lead the SANFL's goalkicking, contested marks, marks and contested possessions, I would have him at #1 of those from South Australia. And if he came close in each of those categories, then I'd have to give it due consideration. I'm not going to be dismissive of Callow if he continues can keep replicating what he did against Adelaide, though I'm not seeing that as reality understanding the probability that Callow won't be able to consistently produce those kinds of results so routinely.

I'm high on Callow at both ends, though I do feel as a key defender that's where his game can for AFL purposes be unlocked to maximise the frequency of games he impacts.

 

[Dockeroo]

Doesn't sound like they see anyone they like or feel can add to their best-22.

They've drafted mature age talent recently enough, so it is a surprise to hear they won't take anyone as taking them in rookie drafts past suggests they do watch the state leagues.

I see it as an opportunity missed as I'm seeing a number of players across different positions who could add value and potentially become pieces for Fremantle. Max Pescud who I listed as a possible list fit for Fremantle is one example of a player I liked as a fit. He was terrific last year and has found another level this year. If the Dockers took him, I wouldn't put it past him either this year or next year to break into their best side. And that's before going through the likes of Thorne and Lowson who also as forwards are very capable in their own right, if after more established players with more senior state league experience behind them.

Have you seen Thorne play? Watched him about 3 times this year. Tidy little player - plays on ball for Peel though. He doesn’t kick many goals.m either so not sure where the small forward thing is coming from.

He won’t be playing midfield at AFL level.
He’s about 168cm and about 60 kilos. He reminds me of a bantam weight boxer.
He would get brutalised in the AFL.

Before you mention other small players in the AFL - Caleb Daniel is possibly the best user of the footy in the entire AFL and is a much stronger build than Thorne.
Tipungwuti would literally weigh 25 kg more than Thorne I reckon and kozzie Pickett is a little human meatball with explosive physical power.
They are not comparable.
There’s a reason out of 800 odd listed AFL players there’s only one under 170cm.

 

[Knightmare]

Have you seen Thorne play? Watched him about 3 times this year. Tidy little player - plays on ball for Peel though. He doesn’t kick many goals.m either so not sure where the small forward thing is coming from.

He won’t be playing midfield at AFL level.
He’s about 168cm and about 60 kilos. He reminds me of a bantam weight boxer.
He would get brutalised in the AFL.

Before you mention other small players in the AFL - Caleb Daniel is possibly the best user of the footy in the entire AFL and is a much stronger build than Thorne.
Tipungwuti would literally weigh 25 kg more than Thorne I reckon and kozzie Pickett is a little human meatball with explosive physical power.
They are not comparable.
There’s a reason out of 800 odd listed AFL players there’s only one under 170cm.

Thorne is playing midfield, but has played forward in the past and continues to demonstrate the attributes that make him ideally suited to playing as a crumbing forward at AFL level.

As you say, at his height and with his lack of weight, that's not going to get it done through the midfield at AFL level which is why I've made the forward suggestion.

Funnily in speaking to an AFL recruiter I recommended Caleb Daniel to him, and he was very quick to shut me down and suggest Daniel wouldn't make the grade.

You're right the odds are stacked against Thorne at the height, but I do see enough talent.

As a small forward, that's the spot where I don't see height as mattering, as you've already mentioned with Kozzie, Tipa. Betts. The history of the position is small guys. Thorne has the right mix of attributes. He has the speed/agility. He brings the forward pressure and tackling energy and enthusiasm and is despite his light frame actually very aggressive with his tackling. His skillset is wonderful - can finish around goal, but also a playmaker up front who can set up teammates with his foot skills. He's finding the footy and finding it further afield so he has that. Terrific at ground level needless to say with his crumbing work having seen it in years past exceptional. So for me he has the mix of attributes he needs to be a success by position. I'm not going to guarantee he makes it, but if I want a crumbing forward this MSD, he's clearly the guy, particularly with Lambert not nominating. Lowson would be the next best alternative, but he's older and not as complete of a player, nor as great at ground level.

 

[Jazny]

Seeing Chugg picked really caught me by surprise.

Me too and I have picked a lot of their weird late picks from Tassie like Grey, Turner, Walker, and Dixon.

 

[PMBangers]

It's insane how overrated Callow is off of what's ultimately been 2 performances in the SANFL, take out his performances against the bottom 3 teams in the league and he's kicked 4 goals and taken 4 contested grabs, two of his 'biggest strengths' he's not been able to consistently produce against any side with more than 2 wins. Let's call it how it is, he's a flat track bully who can throw small opponents around, and take advantage with his size to knock similar sized opponents off balance, but has the athletic traits, that's acceleration, leap, top speed and agility of course, of a mining truck.

 

[Jazny]

It's insane how overrated Callow is off of what's ultimately been 2 performances in the SANFL, take out his performances against the bottom 3 teams in the league and he's kicked 4 goals and taken 4 contested grabs, two of his 'biggest strengths' he's not been able to consistently produce against any side with more than 2 wins. Let's call it how it is, he's a flat track bully who can throw small opponents around, and take advantage with his size to knock similar sized opponents off balance, but has the athletic traits, that's acceleration, leap, top speed and agility of course, of a mining truck.

Any other opinions you want to plagerise of Souup?

 

[Knightmare]

It's insane how overrated Callow is off of what's ultimately been 2 performances in the SANFL, take out his performances against the bottom 3 teams in the league and he's kicked 4 goals and taken 4 contested grabs, two of his 'biggest strengths' he's not been able to consistently produce against any side with more than 2 wins. Let's call it how it is, he's a flat track bully who can throw small opponents around, and take advantage with his size to knock similar sized opponents off balance, but has the athletic traits, that's acceleration, leap, top speed and agility of course, of a mining truck.

As a key forward, you're only as good as the delivery in a lot of the time, and in Norwood's losses I can't imagine there was much in the way of good delivery.

Irrespective of how Callow's stats may read on paper, he impacts games aside from the numbers that show up on the stat sheet.

He brings the ball to ground, he crashes packs, he brings teammates into games with his work by foot. He's a great team component to a front half already because he does all those things and isn't reliant on having silver service delivery every week, or an opponent he can take advantage of.

Your concern though about Callow being a strength and contested marking guy is precisely why I keep talking about Callow in my view being even better suited for AFL play to settling in defence. As when you're a key forward, you're right, at AFL level if you have someone who can match you for strength, it's hard if you impact games with your work overhead, but not as much your ground level stuff. With key forwards, having those extra dimensions allows you to have big games against a wider range of opponents and a more diverse way of causing problems. In defence, I don't see that same equation and view it as if you're that strong and strong as a contested mark, that translates and allows for consistent performance by position as you're more easily able to dictate the game to ensure your effectiveness.

 

[PMBangers]

Any other opinions you want to plagerise of Souup?

Huh?

 

[PMBangers]

Your concern though about Callow being a strength and contested marking guy is precisely why I keep talking about Callow in my view being even better suited for AFL play to settling in defence. As when you're a key forward, you're right, at AFL level if you have someone who can match you for strength, it's hard if you impact games with your work overhead, but not as much your ground level stuff. With key forwards, having those extra dimensions allows you to have big games against a wider range of opponents and a more diverse way of causing problems. In defence, I don't see that same equation and view it as if you're that strong and strong as a contested mark, that translates and allows for consistent performance by position as you're more easily able to dictate the game to ensure your effectiveness.

I very much agree that his best spot at the next level will be in defense, but I also think it's dependant on the players around him, not every club has the luxury of giving their KPDs freedom similar to McGovern or Haynes for example who play the role Callow would be looking for. If he goes to Collingwood for example, is he going to get that freedom over some one like Moore?

 

[Pie 4 Life]

It's insane how overrated Callow is off of what's ultimately been 2 performances in the SANFL, take out his performances against the bottom 3 teams in the league and he's kicked 4 goals and taken 4 contested grabs, two of his 'biggest strengths' he's not been able to consistently produce against any side with more than 2 wins. Let's call it how it is, he's a flat track bully who can throw small opponents around, and take advantage with his size to knock similar sized opponents off balance, but has the athletic traits, that's acceleration, leap, top speed and agility of course, of a mining truck.

Come on mate, he’s just a kid having a crack!

 

[DaKids]

Thats fine as Gee do not have any R1 picks... Im looking for player or two that may represent value and slip thru to the 20's. Considering Parfitt and Guthrie , I think if one is lucky and careful good players can be found.

From that same Glenelg side I would think Lewis Rayson be an interesting prospect who should slip through to 20’s. Very good player

 

[eDPS]

It's insane how overrated Callow is off of what's ultimately been 2 performances in the SANFL, take out his performances against the bottom 3 teams in the league and he's kicked 4 goals and taken 4 contested grabs, two of his 'biggest strengths' he's not been able to consistently produce against any side with more than 2 wins. Let's call it how it is, he's a flat track bully who can throw small opponents around, and take advantage with his size to knock similar sized opponents off balance, but has the athletic traits, that's acceleration, leap, top speed and agility of course, of a mining truck.

Seems destined to go to the pies and despite his flaws he honestly deserves a spot on an AFL list and the Pies and Hawks seem like great fits.

 

[Knightmare]

I very much agree that his best spot at the next level will be in defense, but I also think it's dependant on the players around him, not every club has the luxury of giving their KPDs freedom similar to McGovern or Haynes for example who play the role Callow would be looking for. If he goes to Collingwood for example, is he going to get that freedom over some one like Moore?

My view with Callow is he doesn't require the freedom of McGovern.

My closest comparison I'd actually say is Brian Lake in terms of style. His 1v1 work, how he protects the drop of the ball and how he turns those 1v1 contests into marks is what I've enjoyed most so far this season.

I'd let Moore in Collingwood's context play higher and intercept and have Callow deeper. And even in doing that, I'd let Callow peel off and give him the freedom to go take marks when he wants to.

The Callow to defence move is one I'd make probably not this year as Collingwood need the front half help and Callow may be that best option right now, but once Roughead retires or Collingwood call a day on his career, I'd shift Callow back as his replacement, with the view that that's the time to make the move, and as a permanent one. And I'd continue building those components to his game in the meantime that would allow for that transition to be a seamless one.

Collingwood who I assume will have a few years down should have some opportunities at some high end key forwards through the draft, assuming they retain their picks and start going to the draft.

 

[Rusty Beam]

It's insane how overrated Callow is off of what's ultimately been 2 performances in the SANFL, take out his performances against the bottom 3 teams in the league and he's kicked 4 goals and taken 4 contested grabs, two of his 'biggest strengths' he's not been able to consistently produce against any side with more than 2 wins. Let's call it how it is, he's a flat track bully who can throw small opponents around, and take advantage with his size to knock similar sized opponents off balance, but has the athletic traits, that's acceleration, leap, top speed and agility of course, of a mining truck.

And yet Horne manages to do a couple of flashy things every once in a while in the same league and is hyped up to be the next Dangerfield/Fyfe hybrid superstar?

 

[PMBangers]

Seems destined to go to the pies and despite his flaws he honestly deserves a spot on an AFL list and the Pies and Hawks seem like great fits.

I would never say a kid doesn't deserve a spot on a list, Callow isn't an immediate fix or the second Wayne Carey though, it's all about moderation my dear friend, but then again you knew that

And yet Horne manages to do a couple of flashy things every once in a while in the same league and is hyped up to be the next Dangerfield/Fyfe hybrid superstar?

Precisely

 

[briztoon]

As a key forward, you're only as good as the delivery in a lot of the time, and in Norwood's losses I can't imagine there was much in the way of good delivery.

So you haven’t watched any of these games to really know how Callow performed?

 

[Jazny]

I would never say a kid doesn't deserve a spot on a list, Callow isn't an immediate fix or the second Wayne Carey though, it's all about moderation my dear friend, but then again you knew that

"Let's call it how it is, he's a flat track bully who can throw small opponents around, and take advantage with his size to knock similar sized opponents off balance, but has the athletic traits, that's acceleration, leap, top speed and agility of course, of a mining truck"
Balanced and moderate

 

[PMBangers]

"Let's call it how it is, he's a flat track bully who can throw small opponents around, and take advantage with his size to knock similar sized opponents off balance, but has the athletic traits, that's acceleration, leap, top speed and agility of course, of a mining truck"
Balanced and moderate

Im sorry if it appears ive gone after a family member or friend here, didn't intend to hurt any feelings

 

[briztoon]

"Let's call it how it is, he's a flat track bully who can throw small opponents around, and take advantage with his size to knock similar sized opponents off balance, but has the athletic traits, that's acceleration, leap, top speed and agility of course, of a mining truck"
Balanced and moderate

It’s spot on though. Has been said by quite a few who have watched him.

 

[Jazny]

It’s spot on though. Has been said by quite a few who have watched him.

And yet he is probably going to get drafted, weird for such an awful player. He outperformed most KPFs as an under ager playing for a Tasmanian team that finished near the bottom of the ladder in 2019. What a flat track bully

 

[Dockeroo]

It’s spot on though. Has been said by quite a few who have watched him.

May well be true but you can’t really say it’s “spot on” with confidence either unless you have watched him yourself too?!

 

[PMBangers]

And yet he is probably going to get drafted, weird for such an awful player.

I actually didn't call him awful, he's not, but he's got some clear areas to improve on that seem to disappear when he's spoken about in mid season draft threads

He outperformed most KPFs as an under ager playing for a Tasmanian team that finished near the bottom of the ladder in 2019. What a flat track bully

And I addressed this, he can outbody smaller opponents easily and competes against similar sized guys in one-on-ones well, it's a large part of his game, if he wasn't doing well in that's scenarios itd be a concern