Draft Expert Knightmare's 2021 Draft Almanac

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Yes maybe thre are players that could be best22 for some clubs, but tehy are the clubs in rebuild so they will look at long term development players. North or Haw could probably pick Bolton ...but would they pick him? I doubt it.

I would like you to track it and see how many games anyone is picked in this draft plays. To me most clubs are just jumping early at players that still have years of development in them... so why is it required to be done now?

These players should be given the same sort of contract that National drafted players are given. How many are drafted then delisted?


Maybe Callow is different. However, again on young. I never really like his kicking action but maybe thats not as important as the marking. Trading from club to club would benefit most clubs more, and not whiteant the clubs these clubs currently play for


Schlensog would have to improved a lot to walk into a best 22 imo. He may well get there. Ironical as geelong could do with a young KPD.

Those bottom teams will go young. That's what they do. Rightly or wrongly.

We have 2019's mid-season draft to have a rough feel for what a mid-season draft can look like. There is in my view more young talent available this time around. Will take longer with this year's crop as more younger types are likely to be picked.

On Callow. He's a terrific field kick, I really like the ball in his hands when he's looking for an i50 target. On his set shot goal kicking though, the modification I'd be recommending though is just not to go around on an ark to try to get more distance. Just keep it a straight approaching routine to maximise results. When he does that, and he did with his first goal on the weekend approaching from the boundary. He can nail those set shots.

It was a strange decision by Geelong to cut Schlensog. Geelong typically are conservative in the respect that they tend to keep guys too long rather than cut them early. He's one who could be brought back. He has improved this year though. He's better than the vast majority of AFL key defenders playing reserves footy, and he ticks the boxes in the key areas. What I'm liking this year more than previously is he's intercepting to a high level this year. Doing that, he's at a level now where I'd be comfortable playing him. He's better than he was last year.

Hoping Melbourne pick up a key defender in the MSD.

Seems like a glaring need, considering if May/Petty goes down we're cooked.

Jackson Callow would be the ultimate if he were to be passed up by other clubs. Blake Schlensog otherwise is that best available key defender. I view Schlensog favourably to Petty.

The typical football draft debate involves best available talent versus needs/role based drafting. Reality is that clubs ride both those horses (actually there is a third horse call potential). When you make a statement like “based on what you want them to do” you are talking needs based, and after that qualifier you are looking at the best available.

In the end best available has been diluted by positional needs. When clubs don’t they often end up with lists full of half back flankers and try to shuffle them into positions of need.

Your particular post followed this familiar path. Talked about best available, but then immediately suggested different criteria. It is an area where being a purist is not a strength.

The other problem with best available is that the draft is a defined and numbered list which definitively values players. In contrast, I think the players are pooled together by clubs in terms of their value; top 3, top 10, first round, top KPPs, outside runners etc. I suspect it is unlikely that they lock in a rigid best 50 and cross off those taken before their pick.

And even then, they can strategize within the parameters of value. Pick 15 may see a KPD as best available, but a small forward fits the needs better and a player is available and rated. Plus there are other KPDs available later.

Knightmare is inclined towards the purist view and consistently leans to best available I think. He is probably right. In the end you can’t beat talent. But for me it is only part of the story.

I'm a best available guy.

That's what my research in going through drafts suggests is by far and away the most effective approach to the draft. I think that's played a big part in how I've outperformed clubs through the draft more years than not with my own ID of KPPs, with clubs in the past particularly reaching on talls far too often.

I'm all about addressing list needs through the trade and free agency period. Across AFL lists, there are good players of all types and there should pretty much all the time be someone either available, or available at the right cost. If your opposition talent ID is good enough, it should be no problem finding those guys who can balance your list. It's like if I wanted a key defender last year. I was talking about Aliir Aliir and Tom McDonald. Both inexpensive, but both capable and undervalued within the industry. I'd have gone and gotten one of those guys for a good price and then I'd feel good about that need being immediately met. And when you have a list need eg. need a key defender. Those Aliir's or McDonald's will want to join you as they'll be after those regular opportunities and want to hear your vision as a club where they're central to your plans and clearly fill a pressing need.

The trade and free agency period is when all the list balancing needs to happen so that you can improve your draft position in ways where you can not only be in position to take the best available player, but also get into a combination of picks that will maximise the combination of players you acquire based on where you rate talent in relation to where you expect them to be picked.

Late/rookie draft there are mature agers who can also fill needs, though if going that direction, I'd want them to be on parr with the best available and project as a best-22 player. If they're not on that level and the need isn't that dire, best available.
 
Hoping Melbourne pick up a key defender in the MSD.

Seems like a glaring need, considering if May/Petty goes down we're cooked.

Surely Tom McDonald would go back and B Brown would come in up forward? The cupboard isn’t empty BUT playing B Brown is a rather desperate proposition.
The Dees will grab Callow IF available and play him either end IF needed.
 
It was a strange decision by Geelong to cut Schlensog. Geelong typically are conservative in the respect that they tend to keep guys too long rather than cut them early. He's one who could be brought back. He has improved this year though. He's better than the vast majority of AFL key defenders playing reserves footy, and he ticks the boxes in the key areas. What I'm liking this year more than previously is he's intercepting to a high level this year. Doing that, he's at a level now where I'd be comfortable playing him. He's better than he was last year.
How many times have you watched Schlensog this year?

It’s the quality of ball he’s intercepting and the role he’s playing this year that’s important.

Is he playing as the number 1 defender, marking his man and taking strong contested marks, or is he playing as a loose defender floating across and marking high balls kicked into the 50 which are not actually aimed towards a specific target.

What are the quality of tall forwards like in the WAFL this year?
 

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When you make a statement like “based on what you want them to do” you are talking needs based, and after that qualifier you are looking at the best available.
A player has to fit a game plan too. A pick can be independent of positional roster needs but entirely the wrong fit for a style of play. And more pertinently, best available can be down the line rather than immediate, which was what I mentioned in the first place. You're very eager to ridicule points that you've failed to grasp.

Talked about best available, but then immediately suggested different criteria.
No it didn't. Best available is a subjective thing, and I define it as being independent of positional needs.
 
How many times have you watched Schlensog this year?

It’s the quality of ball he’s intercepting and the role he’s playing this year that’s important.

Is he playing as the number 1 defender, marking his man and taking strong contested marks, or is he playing as a loose defender floating across and marking high balls kicked into the 50 which are not actually aimed towards a specific target.

What are the quality of tall forwards like in the WAFL this year?

He was very immature (not in a childish sense) in his game style and setup, not learning to play back shoulder/playing in front too much, not learning structure etc. and very raw skills wise at geelong AND was getting little niggling injuries that cut his time short, but rapidly improving his body and game sense when cut by geelong, Scarlett did not want him to go and we know what scarlett strike rate is with guys he rates.

This year he is doing all those things well and still improving, you can only play and beat the guys you come up against and yes the quality is not great, but he is arguably the wafl's premier defender with a body in ripping condition and ripe for a crack at AFL level who is only 20. Definitely will get a shot from someone and is very keen to play at the top level.
 
How many times have you watched Schlensog this year?

It’s the quality of ball he’s intercepting and the role he’s playing this year that’s important.

Is he playing as the number 1 defender, marking his man and taking strong contested marks, or is he playing as a loose defender floating across and marking high balls kicked into the 50 which are not actually aimed towards a specific target.

What are the quality of tall forwards like in the WAFL this year?

Have seen two WAFL game of Schlensog this year. Rounds 2 (front row sceens)+7 (channel 7 replay) if you'd also like to see some of him.

Tyler Keitel, Mason Shaw and now that he has moved forward Jon Marsh are the good (established) WAFL key forwards, and they're all the equivalent of depth key forwards on AFL lists.

Schlensog is intercepting everything (and leading the WAFL for marks taken). He's playing CHB, so he's not taking the deepest forward and will peel off to intercept. He's able 1v1 and is strong and has grown into his body, still athletic, can kick and hits his targets for a tall. He's no Callow and doesn't turn 1v1s into marks in that same way, Callow is Lake/Hawkins-like 1v1, but Schlensog is still taking his contested marks without having stats to tell you how many.
 
Have seen two WAFL game of Schlensog this year. Rounds 2 (front row sceens)+7 (channel 7 replay) if you'd also like to see some of him.

Tyler Keitel, Mason Shaw and now that he has moved forward Jon Marsh are the good (established) WAFL key forwards, and they're all the equivalent of depth key forwards on AFL lists.

Schlensog is intercepting everything (and leading the WAFL for marks taken). He's playing CHB, so he's not taking the deepest forward and will peel off to intercept. He's able 1v1 and is strong and has grown into his body, still athletic, can kick and hits his targets for a tall. He's no Callow and doesn't turn 1v1s into marks in that same way, Callow is Lake/Hawkins-like 1v1, but Schlensog is still taking his contested marks without having stats to tell you how many.
Not worried about his stats.

I wanted to know the quality of ball he’s intercepting, and what his role is.

Whether he has the freedom to drift off his opponent and play as a loose intercepting defender, or whether he has to be accountable for his opponent, and is taking more contested marks.

Basically what does he look like from the eye test.


Similar to the discussion about the U18 defenders and McAsey at the 2019 U18 Championships.

There was much made about the poor quality of ball coming in, and the “inflated” (that’s the wrong word, but best I could think of) stats of the tall defenders because of the lack of quality tall forwards at the Championships.
 
Not worried about his stats.

I wanted to know the quality of ball he’s intercepting, and what his role is.

Whether he has the freedom to drift off his opponent and play as a loose intercepting defender, or whether he has to be accountable for his opponent, and is taking more contested marks.

Basically what does he look like from the eye test.


Similar to the discussion about the U18 defenders and McAsey at the 2019 U18 Championships.

There was much made about the poor quality of ball coming in, and the “inflated” (that’s the wrong word, but best I could think of) stats of the tall defenders because of the lack of quality tall forwards at the Championships.

He plays man and peels off to intercept. It's a blended role. So it's not all unaccountable. It's not just intercept and do nothing else as is typical with tall defenders. And when he's involved in 1v1s, defending opponents on the lead, he's not getting exposed. Even when the ball hits the ground, he's actually fairly adept for a tall, not that that's as vital for a key defender as it is for a forward.

The standard of competition in the WAFL is typical with what it has been these past 10 years. It's not like there is an unusually poor number of able KPPs compared to normal, nor any unusual number of poor midfielders. And that's generally going to happen because most of the same talent returns year after year v the U18 champs where you have a different pool of talent out there every year. So there is nothing particularly 'inflated' about this year compared to any other year.

For a benchmark, if you're 150+ marks per 22 matches, that's when for a key defender you're talking someone who can present AFL relevance. And I look at each of VFL/SANFL/WAFL as comparable. Sam Collins of course in the VFL was breaking records with in excess of 150 marks from less than 20 games before getting drafted, and he's on that all-time elite end where he's a clear-cut top-10 key defender in the AFL. I think it was 165 marks from 15 games or something ridiculous like that. The 150+ mark is a level per 22 games where I'd be comfortable adding them to my list and suggest they're good enough to convert their play to AFL play if their games are good enough and they're not too short or have some kind of fundamental flaw that concerns me.

Schlensog is on track for approx 170-175 marks per 22 games. And still being young, showing a high rate of improvement. He's draftable and the clear-cut standout aside from Callow if I'm after a key defender during this mid-season draft period.
 
He plays man and peels off to intercept. It's a blended role. So it's not all unaccountable. It's not just intercept and do nothing else as is typical with tall defenders. And when he's involved in 1v1s, defending opponents on the lead, he's not getting exposed. Even when the ball hits the ground, he's actually fairly adept for a tall, not that that's as vital for a key defender as it is for a forward.

The standard of competition in the WAFL is typical with what it has been these past 10 years. It's not like there is an unusually poor number of able KPPs compared to normal, nor any unusual number of poor midfielders. And that's generally going to happen because most of the same talent returns year after year v the U18 champs where you have a different pool of talent out there every year. So there is nothing particularly 'inflated' about this year compared to any other year.

For a benchmark, if you're 150+ marks per 22 matches, that's when for a key defender you're talking someone who can present AFL relevance. And I look at each of VFL/SANFL/WAFL as comparable. Sam Collins of course in the VFL was breaking records with in excess of 150 marks from less than 20 games before getting drafted, and he's on that all-time elite end where he's a clear-cut top-10 key defender in the AFL. I think it was 165 marks from 15 games or something ridiculous like that. The 150+ mark is a level per 22 games where I'd be comfortable adding them to my list and suggest they're good enough to convert their play to AFL play if their games are good enough and they're not too short or have some kind of fundamental flaw that concerns me.

Schlensog is on track for approx 170-175 marks per 22 games. And still being young, showing a high rate of improvement. He's draftable and the clear-cut standout aside from Callow if I'm after a key defender during this mid-season draft period.
Thanks, the first paragraph is what I wanted to know.

Interesting that you feel the WAFL hasn’t dropped a bit in standard since 2017/2018.
 
Thanks, the first paragraph is what I wanted to know.

Interesting that you feel the WAFL hasn’t dropped a bit in standard since 2017/2018.

The same names are largely there.

A few very good names have joined the AFL which takes away from what was. But there have also been new and good additions. From Fisher, to Ramsay to Anderson. Schlensog is there this year. Thorne has developed and is outplaying his Fremantle listed teammates every week. I'm not seeing anything major.
 
Have you seen much of Jackson Archer this year Knightmare? and do you think he's someone North should be tracking or one we are better off not picking up?

Edit: Darby Scott another F/S im interested in hearing about
 
Have you seen much of Jackson Archer this year Knightmare? and do you think he's someone North should be tracking or one we are better off not picking up?

Edit: Darby Scott another F/S im interested in hearing about

In both of the Northern matches I watched, Archer was quiet, even by NAB League standards. And that includes in a convincing win v Brisbane on the weekend which made a lot of Northern's players look good. He's not looking draftable at this stage.

Scott played his first NAB League game on the weekend so I've yet to see as there were other games I was focused on last weekend, but stats don't jump off the page, so I would have thought he would be a long shot also.
 
He was very immature (not in a childish sense) in his game style and setup, not learning to play back shoulder/playing in front too much, not learning structure etc. and very raw skills wise at geelong AND was getting little niggling injuries that cut his time short, but rapidly improving his body and game sense when cut by geelong, Scarlett did not want him to go and we know what scarlett strike rate is with guys he rates.

This year he is doing all those things well and still improving, you can only play and beat the guys you come up against and yes the quality is not great, but he is arguably the wafl's premier defender with a body in ripping condition and ripe for a crack at AFL level who is only 20. Definitely will get a shot from someone and is very keen to play at the top level.
Blake Schlensog is a player that since mentioned on the richmond board has taken my interest and have looked at more and i must say i am liking what i have read about his change of role and position playing out west. He is a really good size and still young enough to develop along with our current young backman.

I cant see much about his athletic ability like combine results if anybody has access to them , Which current defender would you guys think he ends up like in 3-4 years
 

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Blake Schlensog is a player that since mentioned on the richmond board has taken my interest and have looked at more and i must say i am liking what i have read about his change of role and position playing out west. He is a really good size and still young enough to develop along with our current young backman.

I cant see much about his athletic ability like combine results if anybody has access to them , Which current defender would you guys think he ends up like in 3-4 years

If, with his current size and frame, clubs teach him to be the fullback and take on the full forward giants of the game, he could easily become the premium full back of the competition. He is only 20 and coming on in leaps and bounds. He will always start off being (since you are richmond) a Dylan Grimes type (cover then float to intercept) but will build his game around becoming a better version of the more contested 1v1 David Astbury.

Lewis melican for sydney is one who was tracking the same way and is becoming a very good full back with his size and frame and schlensog will do similar, even if he does take 1-2 or even 3 years to become the first picked defender in a sides 22, he will still then have 10 years left at the top level barring injuries etc.

The kid is a giant who is growing into his boat shoes very well and as i mentioned earlier, Matty Scarlett did not want him to be let go at geelong as he rates him and his current quick progress in the game very highly.
 
Blake Schlensog is a player that since mentioned on the richmond board has taken my interest and have looked at more and i must say i am liking what i have read about his change of role and position playing out west. He is a really good size and still young enough to develop along with our current young backman.

I cant see much about his athletic ability like combine results if anybody has access to them , Which current defender would you guys think he ends up like in 3-4 years

If Schlensog can become something like a Dougal Howard or Lachie Henderson, that would be a great result and roughly where I place his upside if his development continues.

sorry for jumping in and responding Knightmare, i will refrain in the future.

I'm always happy for others to contribute answers. This thread doesn't have to be all one way. This is a forum at the end of the day, and this is a draft discussion, and if others are providing answers, hopefully a few different opinions or thoughts emerge, adding to the discussion which is a healthy thing and why we're all here.
 
If Schlensog can become something like a Dougal Howard or Lachie Henderson, that would be a great result and roughly where I place his upside if his development continues.

I would have thought he is more athletically gifted than the 2 players you mention
any access to his draft combine results ?
 
I would have thought he is more athletically gifted than the 2 players you mention
any access to his draft combine results ?

He's superior physically. Taller than Henderson, probably stronger than both while more athletic. I'm just talking more-so about his game.

Can't say I have any of his testing data. Happy for others to include if they're fortunate enough to get the full testing data. But leap and movement are good for someone his height for a basic feel. Certainly an above average athlete.
 
Blake Schlensog is a player that since mentioned on the richmond board has taken my interest and have looked at more and i must say i am liking what i have read about his change of role and position playing out west. He is a really good size and still young enough to develop along with our current young backman.

I cant see much about his athletic ability like combine results if anybody has access to them , Which current defender would you guys think he ends up like in 3-4 years
Wasn't really a change of role being a defender. I think he was kpd his whole final year pretty much and most of his first year
 
I'm a best available guy.

That's what my research in going through drafts suggests is by far and away the most effective approach to the draft. I think that's played a big part in how I've outperformed clubs through the draft more years than not with my own ID of KPPs, with clubs in the past particularly reaching on talls far too often.

I'm all about addressing list needs through the trade and free agency period. Across AFL lists, there are good players of all types and there should pretty much all the time be someone either available, or available at the right cost. If your opposition talent ID is good enough, it should be no problem finding those guys who can balance your list. It's like if I wanted a key defender last year. I was talking about Aliir Aliir and Tom McDonald. Both inexpensive, but both capable and undervalued within the industry. I'd have gone and gotten one of those guys for a good price and then I'd feel good about that need being immediately met. And when you have a list need eg. need a key defender. Those Aliir's or McDonald's will want to join you as they'll be after those regular opportunities and want to hear your vision as a club where they're central to your plans and clearly fill a pressing need.

The trade and free agency period is when all the list balancing needs to happen so that you can improve your draft position in ways where you can not only be in position to take the best available player, but also get into a combination of picks that will maximise the combination of players you acquire based on where you rate talent in relation to where you expect them to be picked.

Late/rookie draft there are mature agers who can also fill needs, though if going that direction, I'd want them to be on parr with the best available and project as a best-22 player. If they're not on that level and the need isn't that dire, best available.
Trade and free agency as opportunities for balancing a list are not equal mechanisms for each club. A couple of examples;
  • GCSs struggles to get players to move there, and along with GWS they have become an outflowing funnel for talent, primarily to Victorian clubs.
  • Fremantle has a litany of failed trades attempting to address needs. For many clubs that list balancing needs to happen at the draft.
  • Several clubs have established themselves as destination clubs. They appeal due to a variety of reasons such as location, coach, regular finals. Hawthorn and Geelong have built lengthy finals campaigns around this.
  • In trades players prefer established clubs. Franklin chooses Sydney over GWS. The big clubs get bigger. Buckley leaves Brisbane and goes to Collingwood.
  • The exposure and ‘other’ opportunities available to players at different clubs is not the same. Judd goes to Carlton and picks up a large out of club contract from a wealthy club supporter, and his partner has massive career opportunities available. The irony is that WC may have won that trade in the end.
 
Trade and free agency as opportunities for balancing a list are not equal mechanisms for each club. A couple of examples;
  • GCSs struggles to get players to move there, and along with GWS they have become an outflowing funnel for talent, primarily to Victorian clubs.
  • Fremantle has a litany of failed trades attempting to address needs. For many clubs that list balancing needs to happen at the draft.
  • Several clubs have established themselves as destination clubs. They appeal due to a variety of reasons such as location, coach, regular finals. Hawthorn and Geelong have built lengthy finals campaigns around this.
  • In trades players prefer established clubs. Franklin chooses Sydney over GWS. The big clubs get bigger. Buckley leaves Brisbane and goes to Collingwood.
  • The exposure and ‘other’ opportunities available to players at different clubs is not the same. Judd goes to Carlton and picks up a large out of club contract from a wealthy club supporter, and his partner has massive career opportunities available. The irony is that WC may have won that trade in the end.

You're right with GCS and GWS and they're good counter points. Not everyone wants to go up there and not everyone wants to stay, particularly in the case of GWS where there is so much replication of the same types and competition for the same spots.

GWS of those two teams I'd find easier to manage the balance because it would be a lot of trading out replicating players for players who fill list holes. The other key is building them into a winning team to encourage players to not only stay, but sign on for less money. If guys ask for too much, that's when I'd use it as an opportunity to let those guys go and rebalance the list accordingly - ideally through trade/free agency, but where that is not possible if the right players can't be attracted at the right price, it might mean using some picks on mature agers who are good enough to fill those list holes.

GCS in some respects are more challenging though the point of going after undervalued players is either offering them an enhanced role or offering them a best-22 spot which they don't currently have. There will always be some who still don't want to join, but there are still often others who can play those same roles or positions who can be called next. What I've liked with Gold Coast is their use of early picks and picks more broadly has actually been pretty good. It's instead their ID of rival talent I've found poor, often bringing in depth guys who were never going to provide best-22 value. If they want experience from other teams, go get guys who can be best-22 players and slot into positions that don't look set to be occupied by their existing youth. Last offseason an opportunity that was apparent was Adam Treloar. WBD didn't have the salary cap space or the picks to provide a suitable offer, and had Gold Coast been firm on their interest, he might have been gettable. Again as with my ideas for GWS, if those rival talents don't want to join and those needs can't be filled during the trade/free agency periods in a particular year, go to the draft and make sure you have the right mature agers identified who are plug and play. Then the youth through the draft can be a best available focus, particularly early on.

Fremantle again fit into the - if guys don't want to come across, and in theory the two SA and WA clubs should actually have the easiest times attracting talent as their states produce the most talent relative to the number of clubs existing in those states, but if they can't fill those list needs, again it means being all over the mature age talent is vital to fill those list needs late/rookie so that those early picks can be used on the best players.

Your comments regarding destination clubs I happen to agree with. They do appeal more on average. Doesn't mean those other clubs can't attract talent but it can be a relatively harder sell. And maybe that means those destination clubs have a slightly higher weighting towards rival talent ID v those clubs that don't tend to appeal as much with more of a weighting in their recruiting department towards mature age talent ID.

As a recruiting team structure. I've mentioned it before. But I'd have an equal balance across opposition talent ID, state league talent ID and junior talent ID. Junior talent ID focus should be on early picks predominantly. Opposition talent ID on those undervalued types who you can get for less than what you'd be willing to pay (so early picks can be retained or even added to) and won't take up too much salary cap space where possible with flexibility of future list movement a priority and state league talent can be added with a combination of late/rookie picks, sometimes mid-draft picks even where practical, with the mid-season draft also added to the value of mature age recruitment, as another opportunity to add more of it.


Not sure whether Cal has just not seen Jackson Callow this year or doesn't rate him. If we're talking immediate performance, Callow is ahead of the entire pool with only maybe Daicos in the same conversation at this point. If we're talking career projections, if I'm to re-do my power rankings, Callow is inside my top-10. So you'll find no bigger Callow fan. Jack Avery and he hasn't nominated for the mid-season draft, but he is a must for me on performance and is ahead of all the WA prospects at this point in time. Sinn should be in there and is probably the strangest exclusion to see. Van Rooyen should be there. Connor MacDonald would have to be in there. Ned Long is unlucky and another I'd include. Sam Banks should be in there. Bondi Uwland after seeing his performance for Gold Coast on the weekend I'd find hard not to include, he's seriously good. Neil Erasmus is a must.

O'Loughlin, Raak, Rayson, Wilmot, Dudley, Goater, Cooke, Draper and Callaghan I'd remove.

With more time perhaps there are further changes I could suggest, or perhaps players.

Callaghan and Draper of those I removed are the most unlucky.

Conway through the ruck I would have liked to have included but Moyle is the more advanced, particularly after that VFL stint.
 
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