Lloyd, Lucas, Lovett and Mcphee is a lot of experience and quality to lose.
On top of that you have Dustbin Fletcher ready for his pension, an average midfield, average defence and young forward line.
Then your draw is 2nd hardest to ours so you are going to be pushing shit up hill.
average midfield ... on the way up
average defence ... well on the way up (as widely documented)
young forward line ... absolutely no idea where this will go (except monfries is improving and williams should be an excellent pick up)
yes lloyd and lucas are losses, but neither had an impact in the second half of the season. Lovett was hit and miss this year, but still important, not sure how badly we'll miss him. Will be that x-factor we miss a bit in the midfield, but we still have ample runners to replace him with and Davey loves pushing up the field as well (just as quick).
The draw is tough, but actually look at the teams that finished in the bottom 8 this year. Apart from Hawthorn (bad year, injuries) and WCE (definitely on the way up again) none of Freo (slowly improving), Melb (improving, but coming from a long way behind), Port (lost their best midfielder, key players are ageing, will fall), Sydney (EPIC loss of talent with retirements + top ruckman is gone), Kangas (most inconsistent team in the AFL, probably improving, but I don't see too much of an improvement just yet) and of course the epic cleanout at Richmond (no comment needed) will finish above us.
Can bookmark that in. 10th at worst and probably 6th at best.