Opinion Matthew Nicks: Adelaide's Coach

Is Matthew Nicks the right coach for Adelaide's rebuild?

  • Firmly yes (I love what I'm seeing)

  • Leaning yes

  • Can't decide either way

  • Leaning no (but don't sack him yet)

  • Firmly no (he should be sacked)


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Going to be an interesting first 10 games of next season.

Our wins came against:

0-2 Port
2-2 Tigers
2-3 Bulldogs
1-10 Eagles
1-12 North
12-6 Carlton
2-17 Eagles
2-18 North

We beat 2 finals teams (Tigers/Bulldogs).

This was all done with one of the easiest fixtures combined with probably the healthiest list in the AFL.

Its surely finals or bust for Nicks in 2023.

So based on the fixture guidelines we will have double ups against -

2 out of North, Eagles, GWS, Essendon and Hawthorn
1 out of (we already play Port twice who are in this group) 7th, 8th, Carlton, St Kilda and Gold Coast
1 out of Geelong, Melbourne, Sydney, Collingwood, 5th and 6th
 

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Going to be an interesting first 10 games of next season.

Our wins came against:

0-2 Port
2-2 Tigers
2-3 Bulldogs
1-10 Eagles
1-12 North
12-6 Carlton
2-17 Eagles
2-18 North

We beat 2 finals teams (Tigers/Bulldogs).

This was all done with one of the easiest fixtures combined with probably the healthiest list in the AFL.

Its surely finals or bust for Nicks in 2023.
4 wins against the worst teams we have seen for a while.

The two finals teams we beat finished 7th an 8th.

Icky.
 
So based on the fixture guidelines we will have double ups against -

2 out of North, Eagles, GWS, Essendon and Hawthorn
1 out of (we already play Port twice who are in this group) 7th, 8th, Carlton, St Kilda and Gold Coast
1 out of Geelong, Melbourne, Sydney, Collingwood, 5th and 6th
Three of those bottom sides will have new coaches which should see them improve.

Could get real ugly, especially if Tex falls off the cliff.
 
Or development this year has been quite underwhelming... there's only been maybe 3 or 4 individual improvers... fog, worrell, soligo, berry etc

The game plan has not improved... and most players stagnated or even regressed. Too much bombing long to the fwd line where we don't even have great contested markers.

Off field has also not improved. Same people running the show.

Overall, I'm expecting more of the same next year. The only way I can see us improving is if we have another 5 players go the next level. Those young players in the sanfl need to step up.. fog level improvements.
 
Well Collingwood and Fremantle this year.
Both their lists are far better than ours though so it's not that much of a suprise. I'm saying I dont see us improving by the required amount because our list is so bad and a good few ( Not all) of the younger players don't look like they have it in them. You could say its not Nicks fault but if he continues with the same old next year then surely the blowtorch must go on him if we don't improve.
 
Always 2-3 teams that surprise.

Issue is they might come from below us. I reckon we’ll be around the same spot, 2 up or 2 down, but anything more dramatic is unlikely. We’ll settle on a best 25/26 a little earlier next year and trust continuity and experience credits to get us up a couple of spots.
 
Both their lists are far better than ours though so it's not that much of a suprise. I'm saying I dont see us improving by the required amount because our list is so bad and a good few ( Not all) of the younger players don't look like they have it in them. You could say its not Nicks fault but if he continues with the same old next year then surely the blowtorch must go on him if we don't improve.

I’m pretty sure he is fully aware that his job is on the line. In his 4th year, he has had 4 drafts to get the list to where he wants it.
 
Issue is they might come from below us. I reckon we’ll be around the same spot, 2 up or 2 down, but anything more dramatic is unlikely. We’ll settle on a best 25/26 a little earlier next year and trust continuity and experience credits to get us up a couple of spots.

Who knows......

A lot depends on whether we can replicate our 2021 offseason. We added 3 key pieces (Dawson, Rachele, Soligo) last year. If we can land a (kind of) mature player in Rankine (he will have had 5 preseasons and 48 games by Rd 1) and poach another / draft well things will definitely start to look up.
 
Going to be an interesting first 10 games of next season.

Our wins came against:

0-2 Port
2-2 Tigers
2-3 Bulldogs
1-10 Eagles
1-12 North
12-6 Carlton
2-17 Eagles
2-18 North

We beat 2 finals teams (Tigers/Bulldogs).

This was all done with one of the easiest fixtures combined with probably the healthiest list in the AFL.

Its surely finals or bust for Nicks in 2023.
Finals for us next year is extremely doubtful, we just don't have the talent yet. Yes, Collingwood leapt up the ladder, but they already had a strong senior core of players. It won't be so much whether we make finals, but it will all be about improvement and continued progression from our youth and showing signs that we are heading in the right direction. If we have a similar year to the Suns this year (not quite a finals side but aren't far away) where we get to 10 wins, I think Nicks will see out his contract. If we only have, say, three wins by the bye, then I can see Nicks be given the flick.
 

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Finals for us next year is extremely doubtful, we just don't have the talent yet. Yes, Collingwood leapt up the ladder, but they already had a strong senior core of players.

Thats not what you were saying preseason.

Fair points, but they're still too raw IMO. Their defence is solid but their forward line is impotent and their midfield doesn't deliver much promise this year. Sidebottom is cooked (he was awful last year( and Pendles is coming off a broken leg at 34. Fair play to them if they make the finals, but I have them firmly entrenched in the bottom 4 again.

My point is there is always a few bolters that nobody predicts and the line between failure and success at AFL level is razor thin. Collingwood lost 6 games by 12 points or less in 2021. In 2022 they won 9 games by 12 points or less.

Its the beauty of the offseason - there is always hope.

Some will say - hey we have had 3 years under Nicks. We finished on 8 wins this year and lost 3 games by under a goal. We win those 3 and we are a 11 win team (one win off the finals). We add a Rankine and maybe another experienced player with a good draft pick and combine that with a group of players that are around the 50 game mark and looking to be comfortable at AFL level between 35 & 60 games (Fog, Jones, McHenry, Schoenberg, Butts, McAdam, Berry) and we could challenge for the 8.

Conversely, its just as easy to say we won 8 games and had 2 games decided by 4 points in less. We lose those two and we are only a 6 win team despite the easiest draw in the AFL and the leagues healthiest list in 2022. Our two best players in 2023 will be 29 and 32. We are a long long way off.

We have had a bit of a history of having very good seasons when we have been predicted to be bottom 4 (2002, 2005, 2012).
 
Two of our best players will be 29 and 32. Dawson turns 26 in April 2023.

I agree that we're a long way off, though.
Dawson and Soligo will be out best next year imo. Berry just behind them. Dawson was our best this year but Nick's played him in the wrong position all year.
 
Dawson and Soligo will be out best next year imo. Berry just behind them. Dawson was our best this year but Nick's played him in the wrong position all year.
Will Laird or Dawson be CC this year? Nicks loves them both. Keays, too. I can see why Nicks played Dawson at HB (loss-damage minimisation) but if we get better Dawson must go to a wing.

I think our best in 2023 (not ranked --- too hard to rank them) will be:
Dawson
Laird
Berry
Fogarty
Soligo
Walker

Who do think Nicks will retain out of Sholl/ Rowe/ Murphy/ McHenry?
Will Frampton be delisted?
 
Think we need to go full tilt at getting Truck next year as a defensive coach
Maybe.
I think Ben will still be in shock from the way Essendon treated him.

Kylie's an Adelaide girl and their kids are young enough to not be too disrupted by a move back here. It'll be interesting to see if the Crows make a play for him.
However, in the Bizarro-world of the AFC, they'll probably want him as Forward Coach (remember Ben Hart? :rolleyes: ), lols.
 
Will Laird or Dawson be CC this year? Nicks loves them both. Keays, too. I can see why Nicks played Dawson at HB (loss-damage minimisation) but if we get better Dawson must go to a wing.

I think our best in 2023 (not ranked --- too hard to rank them) will be:
Dawson
Laird
Berry
Fogarty
Soligo
Walker

Who do think Nicks will retain out of Sholl/ Rowe/ Murphy/ McHenry?
Will Frampton be delisted?
I think the club would like to trade Sholl but I'm not sure if there are any interested parties.
Rowe will be delisted.
Murphy contracted and unfortunately not going anywhere.
McHenry see Murphy.
Frampton. Not sure. Depends if we are targetting a KPD or not. Collingwood apparently interested.
 
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