Opinion Matthew Nicks: Adelaide's Coach

Is Matthew Nicks the right coach for Adelaide's rebuild?

  • Firmly yes (I love what I'm seeing)

  • Leaning yes

  • Can't decide either way

  • Leaning no (but don't sack him yet)

  • Firmly no (he should be sacked)

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Interloperer said:
A comparison with the Suns. They look like just missing the 8 this year. They're still in with more than a fighting chance, but it will be difficult.

In 2014 they should have made finals but just missed. Their coach was sacked and replaced by someone who was permitted to rebuild the team from the ground up. As if he was taking over a team from the bottom 2 or 3, rather than one that just missed the eight, under the guise of "improving culture".

Eight years later they are maybe approaching the same level they had in 2014. Several players have debuted, had respectable but not outstanding careers, and retired in that period.

In 2019 Adelaide should have made finals but just missed. Don Pyke was sacked replaced by Matthew Nicks who was permitted to rebuild the team from the ground up. As if he was taking over a team from the bottom 2 or 3, rather than one that just missed the eight, under the guise of "improving culture".

See you in 2027 I guess?
Click to expand...

Sorry mate but your take on that is completely incorrect. The Suns didn’t get a coach in to rebuild from the ground up after making finals - they got in Rodney Eade as an experienced coach to get them to the next level. And he couldn’t - they then lost their better senior players (May Lynch etc) and then rebuilt from scratch


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BunjiMac said:
He's just an average coach who's a decent bloke. That's assistant coach material not head coach.

Seems to have a desire to see the "battlers" or "underdog" succeed and a distain for those who have been blessed with talent.

It's a weird set of rules which might be suitable for kindergarten and not elite professional sports.

Noone can argue that he's been given plenty of time and I think we've gone backwards in his time because we've chosen to invest in the wrong people and areas.
Click to expand...

I think you can make a strong argument he hasn’t been given enough time. A quick look at Carlton’s rebuild (this last one)

Hit the draft hard from 2015 (weitering, Curnow, McKay) to 2018 (elite mid Walsh)
They were terrible throughout those years. Still poor in 19,20,21 and finally breaking through this year. Now you could argue injuries and poor coaching have made their rebuild take a year or two longer than expected. I would say a stronger argument would be the addition via trade and free agency after those draft years has finally coincided with their drafted players developing to the level. Williams and Saad in 2020, Hewett and Cerra this year - throw in Pittonet, Newnes, McGovern, Setterfield, Newman and Martin along the way

So on the 4th year after hitting the draft for 4 years and a couple of successful years trading and recruiting Carlton are flying up the ladder

At best you could say we started our draft rebuild started at the 2018 draft although in reality the clubs mindset didn’t go to rebuild until the following year

So hit the draft 2018-2021 for young talent and then go free agency/trade to fill the holes for a couple of years while the list gets enough games into it - as we have heard the club spruiking in the last few weeks

So 2024/2025 is when we should reasonably expect to compete for a finals berth and have a proper crack if everything is going to plan

Half way through 2022 we think he has had “more than enough time”?

We haven’t even started the key part of filling the gaps. Imagine recruiting Dunkley JHF Rankine and Cox over the next two years - plus have the squad two years further along?

Early stages suggest we haven’t drafted nearly as well as Carlton did but there is still time for that to be proven wrong.

A rebuild where you gut the list like we did is a 7-10 year exercise. Whether we should have gone down this path is debatable - many here had been calling for one for a long time.

Nicks can’t really be judged until 2023/2024 based on what we have seen

And to put my view out - I am as frustrated as anyone that we pick the same midfield and the same small forwards each week. And we play 1 KPD sometimes

However unlike many here I think development can be achieved in the Sanfl,
I believe we do need a senior element in the AFL (we usually have around 7-8 100 gamers and 2-4 50 gamers) and the games when we are competitive for 3/4 or so against decent teams I see as a positive as those teams are the benchmark and we are only going to get better

All of the above is why the club extending Nicks to 2023 was easy - he may not be the guy for 2024 and beyond. Chopping and changing coaches is a proven path to failure and teams often improve rapidly in the first year with a new coach. The timing for us would be 2024.




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rabidcrow said:
I think you can make a strong argument he hasn’t been given enough time. A quick look at Carlton’s rebuild (this last one)

Hit the draft hard from 2015 (weitering, Curnow, McKay) to 2018 (elite mid Walsh)
They were terrible throughout those years. Still poor in 19,20,21 and finally breaking through this year. Now you could argue injuries and poor coaching have made their rebuild take a year or two longer than expected. I would say a stronger argument would be the addition via trade and free agency after those draft years has finally coincided with their drafted players developing to the level. Williams and Saad in 2020, Hewett and Cerra this year - throw in Pittonet, Newnes and Martin along the way

So on the 4th year after hitting the draft for 4 years and a couple of successful years trading and recruiting Carlton are flying up the ladder

At best you could say we started our draft rebuild started at the 2018 draft although in reality the clubs mindset didn’t go to rebuild until the following year

So hit the draft 2018-2021 for young talent and then go free agency/trade to fill the holes for a couple of years while the list gets enough games into it - as we have heard the club spruiking in the last few weeks

So 2024/2025 is when we should reasonably expect to compete for a finals berth and have a proper crack if everything is going to plan

Half way through 2022 we think he has had “more than enough time”?

We haven’t even started the key part of filling the gaps. Imagine recruiting Dunkley JHF Rankine and Cox over the next two years - plus have the squad two years further along?

Early stages suggest we haven’t drafted nearly as well as Carlton did but there is still time for that to be proven wrong.

A rebuild where you gut the list like we did is a 7-10 year exercise. Whether we should have gone down this path is debatable - many here had been calling for one for a long time.

Nicks can’t really be judged until 2023/2024 based on what we have seen

And to put my view out - I am as frustrated as anyone that we pick the same midfield and the same small forwards each week. And we play 1 KPD sometimes

However unlike many here I think development can be achieved in the Sanfl,
I believe we do need a senior element in the AFL (we usually have around 7-8 100 gamers and 2-4 50 gamers) and the games when we are competitive for 3/4 or so against decent teams I see as a positive as those teams are the benchmark and we are only going to get better

All of the above is why the club extending Nicks to 2023 was easy - he may not be the guy for 2024 and beyond. Chopping and changing coaches is a proven path to failure and teams often improve rapidly in the first year with a new coach. The timing for us would be 2024.




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Click to expand...
I don't care about the results and am not judging him on them. It's his decision making and lack of strategic foresight. He is coaching a s making decisions like we are contending or aiming for honourable losses rather than really rebuilding a doing what is really best for the future.

He either lacks the ability or is too afraid for his job. Either way not good enough and is only pushing out our rebuild debt by investing in the wrong people.
 
rabidcrow said:
Sorry mate but your take on that is completely incorrect. The Suns didn’t get a coach in to rebuild from the ground up after making finals - they got in Rodney Eade as an experienced coach to get them to the next level. And he couldn’t - they then lost their better senior players (May Lynch etc) and then rebuilt from scratch


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Click to expand...
That might not be what he was brought in for. But it's what he did
 
rabidcrow said:
I think you can make a strong argument he hasn’t been given enough time. A quick look at Carlton’s rebuild (this last one)

Hit the draft hard from 2015 (weitering, Curnow, McKay) to 2018 (elite mid Walsh)
They were terrible throughout those years. Still poor in 19,20,21 and finally breaking through this year. Now you could argue injuries and poor coaching have made their rebuild take a year or two longer than expected. I would say a stronger argument would be the addition via trade and free agency after those draft years has finally coincided with their drafted players developing to the level. Williams and Saad in 2020, Hewett and Cerra this year - throw in Pittonet, Newnes, McGovern, Setterfield, Newman and Martin along the way

So on the 4th year after hitting the draft for 4 years and a couple of successful years trading and recruiting Carlton are flying up the ladder

At best you could say we started our draft rebuild started at the 2018 draft although in reality the clubs mindset didn’t go to rebuild until the following year

So hit the draft 2018-2021 for young talent and then go free agency/trade to fill the holes for a couple of years while the list gets enough games into it - as we have heard the club spruiking in the last few weeks

So 2024/2025 is when we should reasonably expect to compete for a finals berth and have a proper crack if everything is going to plan

Half way through 2022 we think he has had “more than enough time”?

We haven’t even started the key part of filling the gaps. Imagine recruiting Dunkley JHF Rankine and Cox over the next two years - plus have the squad two years further along?

Early stages suggest we haven’t drafted nearly as well as Carlton did but there is still time for that to be proven wrong.

A rebuild where you gut the list like we did is a 7-10 year exercise. Whether we should have gone down this path is debatable - many here had been calling for one for a long time.

Nicks can’t really be judged until 2023/2024 based on what we have seen

And to put my view out - I am as frustrated as anyone that we pick the same midfield and the same small forwards each week. And we play 1 KPD sometimes

However unlike many here I think development can be achieved in the Sanfl,
I believe we do need a senior element in the AFL (we usually have around 7-8 100 gamers and 2-4 50 gamers) and the games when we are competitive for 3/4 or so against decent teams I see as a positive as those teams are the benchmark and we are only going to get better

All of the above is why the club extending Nicks to 2023 was easy - he may not be the guy for 2024 and beyond. Chopping and changing coaches is a proven path to failure and teams often improve rapidly in the first year with a new coach. The timing for us would be 2024.




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Click to expand...

Completely disagree, but setting that aside: Carlton have been hitting the draft hard continuously since 2003.

They had 3 x no.1 picks from 2005-2007. Not to mention between then and now

Which of those coaches should they have stuck with?
 
Sanders said:
Completely disagree, but setting that aside: Carlton have been hitting the draft hard continuously since 2003.

They had 3 x no.1 picks from 2005-2007. Not to mention between then and now

Which of those coaches should they have stuck with?
Click to expand...

I did say their last rebuild… and they have sacked two coaches along the way

Not saying Nicks is the future. Just saying I understand through this early development phase they have stuck with him. We should see where we are next year and then make a call.
My main point was we have just finished the drafting part of the rebuild in theory - and so we are about as good as we should expect to be at this stage


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rabidcrow said:
I did say their last rebuild… and they have sacked two coaches along the way

Not saying Nicks is the future. Just saying I understand through this early development phase they have stuck with him. We should see where we are next year and then make a call.
My main point was we have just finished the drafting part of the rebuild in theory - and so we are about as good as we should expect to be at this stage


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Click to expand...
We are far from done with our drafting
 
rabidcrow said:
I did say their last rebuild… and they have sacked two coaches along the way

Not saying Nicks is the future. Just saying I understand through this early development phase they have stuck with him. We should see where we are next year and then make a call.
My main point was we have just finished the drafting part of the rebuild in theory - and so we are about as good as we should expect to be at this stage


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Click to expand...

Their last rebuild? Very hard to know with them where the lines are

Nicks problem is that he hasn’t shown much progress in any area.

If you just want to blindly say more time, then where does it end?
 
Sanders said:
Their last rebuild? Very hard to know with them where the lines are

Nicks problem is that he hasn’t shown much progress in any area.

If you just want to blindly say more time, then where does it end?
Click to expand...
He gave a timeline being to the end of 2023 in the previous post. Didn’t blindly say ‘ more time’.
 
We know that GWS are after a coach, Nth Melbourne probably will be after one, Essendon could be after one and Kern's position is not certain at present. If 3 or more clubs are after coaches this year, I would rather see Nick's stay than probably ending up with pick 3 or 4 of what is available (given we are not a Melbourne based club). And who knows, there could be more clubs who would like to move on their coach this year. So better the devil we know for me.
 
hidden said:
We know that GWS are after a coach, Nth Melbourne probably will be after one, Essendon could be after one and Kern's position is not certain at present. If 3 or more clubs are after coaches this year, I would rather see Nick's stay than probably ending up with pick 3 or 4 of what is available (given we are not a Melbourne based club). And who knows, there could be more clubs who would like to move on their coach this year. So better the devil we know for me.
Click to expand...
I think who is looking for a coach is irrelevant. They are either the right person or not.
 
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Greenfinger said:
He gave a timeline being to the end of 2023 in the previous post. Didn’t blindly say ‘ more time’.
Click to expand...
Just says 2023. If we're still shit by the bye round next year, I'd be turfing him out and letting a caretaker see out the year.

I think it's very likely we'll be bottom 4 half way through next year.
 
rabidcrow said:
I think you can make a strong argument he hasn’t been given enough time. A quick look at Carlton’s rebuild (this last one)

Hit the draft hard from 2015 (weitering, Curnow, McKay) to 2018 (elite mid Walsh)
They were terrible throughout those years. Still poor in 19,20,21 and finally breaking through this year. Now you could argue injuries and poor coaching have made their rebuild take a year or two longer than expected. I would say a stronger argument would be the addition via trade and free agency after those draft years has finally coincided with their drafted players developing to the level. Williams and Saad in 2020, Hewett and Cerra this year - throw in Pittonet, Newnes, McGovern, Setterfield, Newman and Martin along the way

So on the 4th year after hitting the draft for 4 years and a couple of successful years trading and recruiting Carlton are flying up the ladder

At best you could say we started our draft rebuild started at the 2018 draft although in reality the clubs mindset didn’t go to rebuild until the following year

So hit the draft 2018-2021 for young talent and then go free agency/trade to fill the holes for a couple of years while the list gets enough games into it - as we have heard the club spruiking in the last few weeks

So 2024/2025 is when we should reasonably expect to compete for a finals berth and have a proper crack if everything is going to plan

Half way through 2022 we think he has had “more than enough time”?

We haven’t even started the key part of filling the gaps. Imagine recruiting Dunkley JHF Rankine and Cox over the next two years - plus have the squad two years further along?

Early stages suggest we haven’t drafted nearly as well as Carlton did but there is still time for that to be proven wrong.

A rebuild where you gut the list like we did is a 7-10 year exercise. Whether we should have gone down this path is debatable - many here had been calling for one for a long time.

Nicks can’t really be judged until 2023/2024 based on what we have seen

And to put my view out - I am as frustrated as anyone that we pick the same midfield and the same small forwards each week. And we play 1 KPD sometimes

However unlike many here I think development can be achieved in the Sanfl,
I believe we do need a senior element in the AFL (we usually have around 7-8 100 gamers and 2-4 50 gamers) and the games when we are competitive for 3/4 or so against decent teams I see as a positive as those teams are the benchmark and we are only going to get better

All of the above is why the club extending Nicks to 2023 was easy - he may not be the guy for 2024 and beyond. Chopping and changing coaches is a proven path to failure and teams often improve rapidly in the first year with a new coach. The timing for us would be 2024.




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Click to expand...

Can't judge a coach that inherited a list that was 1 win from finals that lost Keath and Greenwood as best 22 players and then drove that group to the spoon. Are you serious? You can't just give him a mulligan for coaching us to a spoon after losing not a single player of note.
 
rabidcrow said:
I think you can make a strong argument he hasn’t been given enough time. A quick look at Carlton’s rebuild (this last one)

Hit the draft hard from 2015 (weitering, Curnow, McKay) to 2018 (elite mid Walsh)
They were terrible throughout those years. Still poor in 19,20,21 and finally breaking through this year. Now you could argue injuries and poor coaching have made their rebuild take a year or two longer than expected. I would say a stronger argument would be the addition via trade and free agency after those draft years has finally coincided with their drafted players developing to the level. Williams and Saad in 2020, Hewett and Cerra this year - throw in Pittonet, Newnes, McGovern, Setterfield, Newman and Martin along the way

So on the 4th year after hitting the draft for 4 years and a couple of successful years trading and recruiting Carlton are flying up the ladder

At best you could say we started our draft rebuild started at the 2018 draft although in reality the clubs mindset didn’t go to rebuild until the following year

So hit the draft 2018-2021 for young talent and then go free agency/trade to fill the holes for a couple of years while the list gets enough games into it - as we have heard the club spruiking in the last few weeks

So 2024/2025 is when we should reasonably expect to compete for a finals berth and have a proper crack if everything is going to plan

Half way through 2022 we think he has had “more than enough time”?

We haven’t even started the key part of filling the gaps. Imagine recruiting Dunkley JHF Rankine and Cox over the next two years - plus have the squad two years further along?

Early stages suggest we haven’t drafted nearly as well as Carlton did but there is still time for that to be proven wrong.

A rebuild where you gut the list like we did is a 7-10 year exercise. Whether we should have gone down this path is debatable - many here had been calling for one for a long time.

Nicks can’t really be judged until 2023/2024 based on what we have seen

And to put my view out - I am as frustrated as anyone that we pick the same midfield and the same small forwards each week. And we play 1 KPD sometimes

However unlike many here I think development can be achieved in the Sanfl,
I believe we do need a senior element in the AFL (we usually have around 7-8 100 gamers and 2-4 50 gamers) and the games when we are competitive for 3/4 or so against decent teams I see as a positive as those teams are the benchmark and we are only going to get better

All of the above is why the club extending Nicks to 2023 was easy - he may not be the guy for 2024 and beyond. Chopping and changing coaches is a proven path to failure and teams often improve rapidly in the first year with a new coach. The timing for us would be 2024.




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Click to expand...


FHXx.gif
 
1970crow said:
Can't judge a coach that inherited a list that was 1 win from finals that lost Keath and Greenwood as best 22 players and then drove that group to the spoon. Are you serious? You can't just give him a mulligan for coaching us to a spoon after losing not a single player of note.
Click to expand...

A coach who was given a mandate for a bit of spring cleaning, a list “rejuvenation” and instead crashed into the side of a mountain
 
rabidcrow said:
I think you can make a strong argument he hasn’t been given enough time. A quick look at Carlton’s rebuild (this last one)

Hit the draft hard from 2015 (weitering, Curnow, McKay) to 2018 (elite mid Walsh)
They were terrible throughout those years. Still poor in 19,20,21 and finally breaking through this year. Now you could argue injuries and poor coaching have made their rebuild take a year or two longer than expected. I would say a stronger argument would be the addition via trade and free agency after those draft years has finally coincided with their drafted players developing to the level. Williams and Saad in 2020, Hewett and Cerra this year - throw in Pittonet, Newnes, McGovern, Setterfield, Newman and Martin along the way

So on the 4th year after hitting the draft for 4 years and a couple of successful years trading and recruiting Carlton are flying up the ladder

At best you could say we started our draft rebuild started at the 2018 draft although in reality the clubs mindset didn’t go to rebuild until the following year

So hit the draft 2018-2021 for young talent and then go free agency/trade to fill the holes for a couple of years while the list gets enough games into it - as we have heard the club spruiking in the last few weeks

So 2024/2025 is when we should reasonably expect to compete for a finals berth and have a proper crack if everything is going to plan

Half way through 2022 we think he has had “more than enough time”?

We haven’t even started the key part of filling the gaps. Imagine recruiting Dunkley JHF Rankine and Cox over the next two years - plus have the squad two years further along?

Early stages suggest we haven’t drafted nearly as well as Carlton did but there is still time for that to be proven wrong.

A rebuild where you gut the list like we did is a 7-10 year exercise. Whether we should have gone down this path is debatable - many here had been calling for one for a long time.

Nicks can’t really be judged until 2023/2024 based on what we have seen

And to put my view out - I am as frustrated as anyone that we pick the same midfield and the same small forwards each week. And we play 1 KPD sometimes

However unlike many here I think development can be achieved in the Sanfl,
I believe we do need a senior element in the AFL (we usually have around 7-8 100 gamers and 2-4 50 gamers) and the games when we are competitive for 3/4 or so against decent teams I see as a positive as those teams are the benchmark and we are only going to get better

All of the above is why the club extending Nicks to 2023 was easy - he may not be the guy for 2024 and beyond. Chopping and changing coaches is a proven path to failure and teams often improve rapidly in the first year with a new coach. The timing for us would be 2024.




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Click to expand...

I don’t have time to read all this
 
1970crow said:
Can't judge a coach that inherited a list that was 1 win from finals that lost Keath and Greenwood as best 22 players and then drove that group to the spoon. Are you serious? You can't just give him a mulligan for coaching us to a spoon after losing not a single player of note.
Click to expand...

Couple of issues with this.

1. We ended up being 2 wins and considerable percentage from making the finals in 2019. As a club we were on a steady decline from 15 wins in 2017 to 12 wins in 2018 to 10 wins in 2019.

2. We lost more than just Greenwood and Keath. We also lost Betts (21) and Atkins (20) who were best 22 in 2019. Plus losing vets that were a key part of our Grand Final team 2 years prior in (Jenkins , Jacobs, Douglas). These losses are cumulative - especially considering we had already lost Cameron, Lever and McGovern.

Nicks walked into one of the worst situations possible. Fractured playing group and a gutted list. The issue is that as a club we have not been publicly realistic about where we are at. I don't think Clarkson would have done anything with our list in 2020.

That being said - we are now 3 years into the Nicks experiment and I think it would be in everyones best interest to get rid of him this offseason.
 
Mr_Moogle said:
Just says 2023. If we're still s**t by the bye round next year, I'd be turfing him out and letting a caretaker see out the year.

I think it's very likely we'll be bottom 4 half way through next year.
Click to expand...

Absolutely. The extension wasn't too smart IMO.

He is going to need a very bright start to the 2023 season IMO if he is to keep his job. If we are anything less than 5-5 he should be gone.

For Comparison - here are coaches that produced very similar results between 40 - 70 games coached.

Nicks - 53 games coached - 15 wins and 38 losses - Win percentage 28.3%

Damien Drumm - 57 games coached - 13 wins and 44 losses. Win Percentage 22.8%
Primus - 48 games coached - 13 wins and 35 losses. Win Percentage 27.1%
Tim Watson - 44 games coached - 12 wins and 31 losses and a tie - Win Percentage 27.3%
Mathew Knights - 68 games coached - 25 wins and 42 losses and a tie - Win Percentage 36.8%.
 
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