Opinion Non-Crows AFL 7

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kirky said:
Normally takes about 8 weeks of season to work out where everyone sits. Sydney defeated Gold Coast and Hawks plus an injury depleted Richmond but lost to Port (with 67 to 45 inside 50’s) and now belted by Melbourne and Geelong.
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I don't think Synday are as bad as they played tonight but at best they make the top 8 winning those types of games you mentioned. No where near the team they were last year.
 
TubbsFarquhar said:
Teams who cop GF beltings often fall away the next year and Sydney are continuing that trend.
Click to expand...
This is the rather long-winded post I made about the subject after last year's grand final:

... I went through the grand final losers in the AFL era. I excluded the 2010 drawn GF since there was no loser, and excluded the recent years where the losers haven’t yet had 5 years to redeem themselves.

For a bad loss, I drew the line at 40 points because I just think that is a psychologically hefty margin, more than half-a-dozen goals. For a quick redemption, I drew the line at 5 years or less because 5 years isn’t really that long to wait as a supporter, and a playing group is likely to look very different after that time. ...


1990: Essendon lost to Collingwood by 48. Went on to appear in GF 2 years later which they won.

1991: West Coast lost to Hawthorn by 53. Went on to appear in GF 1 year later which they won.

1992: Geelong lost to West Coast by 28. Went on to appear in GF 2 years later which they lost. Won flag 15 years after 1992.

1993: Carlton lost to Essendon by 44. Went on to appear in GF 2 years later which they won.

1994: Geelong lost to West Coast by 80. Went on to appear in GF 1 year later which they lost. Won flag 13 years after 1994.

1995: Geelong lost to Carlton by 61. Went on to appear in GF 12 years later which they won.

1996: Sydney lost to North Melbourne by 43. Went on to appear in GF 9 years later which they won.

1997: St Kilda lost to Adelaide by 31. Went on to appear in GFs 12 and 13 years later which they lost. Yet to win flag 25 years later.

1998: North Melbourne lost to Adelaide by 35. Went on to appear in GF 1 year later which they won.

1999: Carlton lost to North by 35. Yet to appear in GF 13 years later.

2000: Melbourne lost to Essendon by 60. Went on to appear in GF 21 years later which they won.

2001: Essendon lost to Brisbane by 26. Yet to appear in GF 21 years later.

2002: Collingwood lost to Brisbane by 9. Went on to appear in GF 1 year later which they lost. Won flag 8 years after 2002.

2003: Collingwood lost to Brisbane by 50. Went on to appear in GF 7 years later which they won.

2004: Brisbane lost to Port Adelaide by 40. Yet to appear in GF 18 years later.

2005: West Coast lost to Sydney by 4. Went on to appear in GF 1 year later which they won.

2006: Sydney lost to West Coast by 1. Went on to appear in GF 6 years later which they won.

2007: Port Adelaide lost to Geelong by 119. Yet to appear in GF 16 years later.

2008: Geelong lost to Hawthorn by 26. Went on to appear in GF 1 year later which they won.

2009: St Kilda lost to Geelong by 12. Went on to appear in GF 1 year later which they lost. Yet to win flag 13 years later.

2010: St Kilda lost to Collingwood by 56. Yet to appear in GF 12 years later.

2011: Collingwood lost to Geelong by 38. Went on to appear in GF 7 years later. Yet to win flag 11 years later.

2012: Hawthorn lost to Sydney by 10. Went on to appear in GF 1 year later which they won.

2013: Fremantle lost to Hawthorn by 15. Yet to appear in GF 9 years later.

2014: Sydney lost to Hawthorn by 63. Went on to appear in GF 2 years later which they lost. Yet to win flag 8 years later.

2015: West Coast lost to Hawthorn by 46. Went on to appear in GF 3 years later which they won.

2016: Sydney lost to Western Bulldogs by 22. Went on to appear in GF 6 years later which they lost. Yet to win flag 6 years later.

2017: Adelaide lost to Richmond by 48. Yet to appear in GF 5 years later.


Of the sides that lost a grand final by less than 40 points, 7 out of 14 appeared in another grand final in 5 years or less, and 4 out of 14 won a flag in 5 years or less.

Of the sides that lost a grand final by 40 points or more, 6 out of 14 appeared in another grand final in 5 years or less, and 4 out of 14 won a flag in 5 years or less.

In my view, this means there is no real correlation between grand final losing margin whether you will make another granny or win a flag within 5 years. As you can see, about half of grand final losers reappear on grand final day within a few years but only about a quarter will win a premiership in that time frame.

To draw a broader conclusion, I think we can say that if your club loses a grand final, regardless of the margin, you’ll probably be waiting another 5 years at least for a flag. They are hard to win.

You might disagree on what constitutes a thrashing or bad loss in a grand final.
 
Rotayjay said:
This is the rather long-winded post I made about the subject after last year's grand final:

... I went through the grand final losers in the AFL era. I excluded the 2010 drawn GF since there was no loser, and excluded the recent years where the losers haven’t yet had 5 years to redeem themselves.

For a bad loss, I drew the line at 40 points because I just think that is a psychologically hefty margin, more than half-a-dozen goals. For a quick redemption, I drew the line at 5 years or less because 5 years isn’t really that long to wait as a supporter, and a playing group is likely to look very different after that time. ...


1990: Essendon lost to Collingwood by 48. Went on to appear in GF 2 years later which they won.

1991: West Coast lost to Hawthorn by 53. Went on to appear in GF 1 year later which they won.

1992: Geelong lost to West Coast by 28. Went on to appear in GF 2 years later which they lost. Won flag 15 years after 1992.

1993: Carlton lost to Essendon by 44. Went on to appear in GF 2 years later which they won.

1994: Geelong lost to West Coast by 80. Went on to appear in GF 1 year later which they lost. Won flag 13 years after 1994.

1995: Geelong lost to Carlton by 61. Went on to appear in GF 12 years later which they won.

1996: Sydney lost to North Melbourne by 43. Went on to appear in GF 9 years later which they won.

1997: St Kilda lost to Adelaide by 31. Went on to appear in GFs 12 and 13 years later which they lost. Yet to win flag 25 years later.

1998: North Melbourne lost to Adelaide by 35. Went on to appear in GF 1 year later which they won.

1999: Carlton lost to North by 35. Yet to appear in GF 13 years later.

2000: Melbourne lost to Essendon by 60. Went on to appear in GF 21 years later which they won.

2001: Essendon lost to Brisbane by 26. Yet to appear in GF 21 years later.

2002: Collingwood lost to Brisbane by 9. Went on to appear in GF 1 year later which they lost. Won flag 8 years after 2002.

2003: Collingwood lost to Brisbane by 50. Went on to appear in GF 7 years later which they won.

2004: Brisbane lost to Port Adelaide by 40. Yet to appear in GF 18 years later.

2005: West Coast lost to Sydney by 4. Went on to appear in GF 1 year later which they won.

2006: Sydney lost to West Coast by 1. Went on to appear in GF 6 years later which they won.

2007: Port Adelaide lost to Geelong by 119. Yet to appear in GF 16 years later.

2008: Geelong lost to Hawthorn by 26. Went on to appear in GF 1 year later which they won.

2009: St Kilda lost to Geelong by 12. Went on to appear in GF 1 year later which they lost. Yet to win flag 13 years later.

2010: St Kilda lost to Collingwood by 56. Yet to appear in GF 12 years later.

2011: Collingwood lost to Geelong by 38. Went on to appear in GF 7 years later. Yet to win flag 11 years later.

2012: Hawthorn lost to Sydney by 10. Went on to appear in GF 1 year later which they won.

2013: Fremantle lost to Hawthorn by 15. Yet to appear in GF 9 years later.

2014: Sydney lost to Hawthorn by 63. Went on to appear in GF 2 years later which they lost. Yet to win flag 8 years later.

2015: West Coast lost to Hawthorn by 46. Went on to appear in GF 3 years later which they won.

2016: Sydney lost to Western Bulldogs by 22. Went on to appear in GF 6 years later which they lost. Yet to win flag 6 years later.

2017: Adelaide lost to Richmond by 48. Yet to appear in GF 5 years later.


Of the sides that lost a grand final by less than 40 points, 7 out of 14 appeared in another grand final in 5 years or less, and 4 out of 14 won a flag in 5 years or less.

Of the sides that lost a grand final by 40 points or more, 6 out of 14 appeared in another grand final in 5 years or less, and 4 out of 14 won a flag in 5 years or less.

In my view, this means there is no real correlation between grand final losing margin whether you will make another granny or win a flag within 5 years. As you can see, about half of grand final losers reappear on grand final day within a few years but only about a quarter will win a premiership in that time frame.

To draw a broader conclusion, I think we can say that if your club loses a grand final, regardless of the margin, you’ll probably be waiting another 5 years at least for a flag. They are hard to win.

You might disagree on what constitutes a thrashing or bad loss in a grand final.
Click to expand...

Forfty percentiles of statististics are made up, I have scienticianis' proofs.
 
Something is rotten in the state (city) of Geelong.

There needs to a massive over haul of the salary cap enforcement including monitoring a much wider scope besides just players including their partners, parents, and siblings as a minimum. Needs to be the ability for AFL, in conjunction with the ATO, to match data including total assessable income - both salaried and investment income for all of these parties earned BEFORE and AFTER they joins certain club. Look at asset built ups relative to salary earned (disclosed) as they do with criminals.

Have we ever seen in world sport - anywhere with a so called salary cap equalisation measure - so many players continually choosing to join one club? Anyone? Anywhere?

FFS, they win the flag by smashing the prelim and GF opponent by over 150 points and then what happens. They don’t just pick up one first round draft pick (18 or whatever as won the flag) but actually pick 7 as they apparently have an abundance of salary cap room and also we’re looking at Grundy by all reports, they get PICK 7 (I wonder how they incentivised Bowes relative to all other clubs chasing him), BOWES ( a pick 10), BRUHN (pick 12) and Henry (another first rounder)

so the most dominant final series we have seen for many years, who has picked up a significantly disproportionate of all OOC players in recent years then go and get 4 NEW FIRST ROUNf picks. Seriously this shit doesn’t ever happen. Why is there not more focus by the media on this?

Serious questions here - how does the premier pick up 4 first round picks. How does a team never bottom out over a 16 year period missing finals only once (and the only team that has this sort of record), whilst winning 4 flags. All whilst one of Australia’s richest men sits there happily as the clubs Chairman and patron.

Time to ring my mate Gerald W and have a chat this week. Something is wrong. Kane has picked up on this recently and will no doubt not pull any punches.

As a qualified Acct and Stockbroker, I can guarantee there are SO MANY ways to pass on wealth in above scenarios. Eg Open up a share account for Danger. Winning trades book to his account, if they become losing trades book to another account (someone stumping up money they are happy to lose). Employ family and partners in “arms length” companies owned by friends that owe you favours. Put them on commission type salary structures for “transparency” whilst ensuing their phones and order books keep running hot earning themhundreds of k per year. AFL looks into it but hey nothing to see here. Company not owned by anyone formally associated with the club. Salaries are variable based on performance which just happens to be the highest paying jobs of their entire life .

the whole situation is a ******* joke. it’s sick and broken and the only saving grace is Geelong have only won 4 and not double that in the last 16 years which they could quite easily have done
 
Last edited:
119others said:
Something is rotten in the state (city) of Geelong.

There needs to a massive over haul of the salary cap enforcement including monitoring a much wider scope besides just players including their partners, parents, and siblings as a minimum. Needs to be the ability for AFL, in conjunction with the ATO, to match data including total assessable income - both salaried and investment income for all of these parties earned BEFORE and AFTER they joins certain club. Look at asset built ups relative to salary earned (disclosed) as they do with criminals.

Have we ever seen in world sport - anywhere with a so called salary cap equalisation measure - so many players continually choosing to join one club? Anyone? Anywhere?

FFS, they win the flag by smashing the prelim and GF opponent by over 150 points and then what happens. They don’t just pick up one first round draft pick (18 or whatever as won the flag) but actually pick 7 as they apparently have an abundance of salary cap room and also we’re looking at Grundy by all reports, they get PICK 7 (I wonder how they incentivised Bowes relative to all other clubs chasing him), BOWES ( a pick 10), BRUHN (pick 12) and Henry (another first rounder)

so the most dominant final series we have seen for many years, who has picked up a significantly disproportionate of all OOC players in recent years then go and get 4 NEW FIRST ROUNf picks. Seriously this s**t doesn’t ever happen. Why is there not more focus by the media on this?

Serious questions here - how does the premier pick up 4 first round picks. How does a team never bottom out over a 16 year period missing finals only once (and the only team that has this sort of record), whilst winning 4 flags. All whilst one of Australia’s richest men sits there happily as the clubs Chairman and patron.

Time to ring my mate Gerald W and have a chat this week. Something is wrong. Kane has picked up on this recently and will no doubt not pull any punches.

As a qualified Acct and Stockbroker, I can guarantee there are SO MANY ways to pass on wealth in above scenarios. Eg Open up a share account for Danger. Winning trades book to his account, if they become losing trades book to another account (someone stumping up money they are happy to lose). Employ family and partners in “arms length” companies owned by friends that owe you favours. Put them on commission type salary structures for “transparency” whilst ensuing their phones and order books keep running not earning hundreds of k per year.

the whole situation is a ******* joke
Click to expand...

VFL mate.
 

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119others said:
Something is rotten in the state (city) of Geelong.

There needs to a massive over haul of the salary cap enforcement including monitoring a much wider scope besides just players including their partners, parents, and siblings as a minimum. Needs to be the ability for AFL, in conjunction with the ATO, to match data including total assessable income - both salaried and investment income for all of these parties earned BEFORE and AFTER they joins certain club. Look at asset built ups relative to salary earned (disclosed) as they do with criminals.

Have we ever seen in world sport - anywhere with a so called salary cap equalisation measure - so many players continually choosing to join one club? Anyone? Anywhere?

FFS, they win the flag by smashing the prelim and GF opponent by over 150 points and then what happens. They don’t just pick up one first round draft pick (18 or whatever as won the flag) but actually pick 7 as they apparently have an abundance of salary cap room and also we’re looking at Grundy by all reports, they get PICK 7 (I wonder how they incentivised Bowes relative to all other clubs chasing him), BOWES ( a pick 10), BRUHN (pick 12) and Henry (another first rounder)

so the most dominant final series we have seen for many years, who has picked up a significantly disproportionate of all OOC players in recent years then go and get 4 NEW FIRST ROUNf picks. Seriously this s**t doesn’t ever happen. Why is there not more focus by the media on this?

Serious questions here - how does the premier pick up 4 first round picks. How does a team never bottom out over a 16 year period missing finals only once (and the only team that has this sort of record), whilst winning 4 flags. All whilst one of Australia’s richest men sits there happily as the clubs Chairman and patron.

Time to ring my mate Gerald W and have a chat this week. Something is wrong. Kane has picked up on this recently and will no doubt not pull any punches.

As a qualified Acct and Stockbroker, I can guarantee there are SO MANY ways to pass on wealth in above scenarios. Eg Open up a share account for Danger. Winning trades book to his account, if they become losing trades book to another account (someone stumping up money they are happy to lose). Employ family and partners in “arms length” companies owned by friends that owe you favours. Put them on commission type salary structures for “transparency” whilst ensuing their phones and order books keep running hit earning the, hundreds of k per year. AFL looks into it but hey nothing to see here. Company not owned by anyone formally associated with the club. Salaries are variable based on performance which just happens to be the highest paying jobs of their entire life .

the whole situation is a ******* joke. it’s sick and broken and the only saving grace is Geelong have only won 4 and not double that in the last 16 years which they could quite easily have done
Click to expand...
I agree. There has been a stink of dodgy rewards and mysteriously large amounts of room in Geelong's salary cap for years. A couple of years ago, I think someone started a main board thread about how Geelong retain so many high-quality players at the same time.
 
Rotayjay said:
I agree. There has been a stink of dodgy rewards and mysteriously large amounts of room in Geelong's salary cap for years. A couple of years ago, I think someone started a main board thread about how Geelong retain so many high-quality players at the same time.
Click to expand...
Ok thanks man. I will try searching for it now and then copy and past my post above, cheers
 
119others said:
Something is rotten in the state (city) of Geelong.

There needs to a massive over haul of the salary cap enforcement including monitoring a much wider scope besides just players including their partners, parents, and siblings as a minimum. Needs to be the ability for AFL, in conjunction with the ATO, to match data including total assessable income - both salaried and investment income for all of these parties earned BEFORE and AFTER they joins certain club. Look at asset built ups relative to salary earned (disclosed) as they do with criminals.

Have we ever seen in world sport - anywhere with a so called salary cap equalisation measure - so many players continually choosing to join one club? Anyone? Anywhere?

FFS, they win the flag by smashing the prelim and GF opponent by over 150 points and then what happens. They don’t just pick up one first round draft pick (18 or whatever as won the flag) but actually pick 7 as they apparently have an abundance of salary cap room and also we’re looking at Grundy by all reports, they get PICK 7 (I wonder how they incentivised Bowes relative to all other clubs chasing him), BOWES ( a pick 10), BRUHN (pick 12) and Henry (another first rounder)

so the most dominant final series we have seen for many years, who has picked up a significantly disproportionate of all OOC players in recent years then go and get 4 NEW FIRST ROUNf picks. Seriously this s**t doesn’t ever happen. Why is there not more focus by the media on this?

Serious questions here - how does the premier pick up 4 first round picks. How does a team never bottom out over a 16 year period missing finals only once (and the only team that has this sort of record), whilst winning 4 flags. All whilst one of Australia’s richest men sits there happily as the clubs Chairman and patron.

Time to ring my mate Gerald W and have a chat this week. Something is wrong. Kane has picked up on this recently and will no doubt not pull any punches.

As a qualified Acct and Stockbroker, I can guarantee there are SO MANY ways to pass on wealth in above scenarios. Eg Open up a share account for Danger. Winning trades book to his account, if they become losing trades book to another account (someone stumping up money they are happy to lose). Employ family and partners in “arms length” companies owned by friends that owe you favours. Put them on commission type salary structures for “transparency” whilst ensuing their phones and order books keep running hit earning the, hundreds of k per year. AFL looks into it but hey nothing to see here. Company not owned by anyone formally associated with the club. Salaries are variable based on performance which just happens to be the highest paying jobs of their entire life .

the whole situation is a ******* joke. it’s sick and broken and the only saving grace is Geelong have only won 4 and not double that in the last 16 years which they could quite easily have done
Click to expand...
Connection, anyone? lol and didn't she get a job at a company of Costa?

www.geelongadvertiser.com.au

Geelong Advertiser

No Cookies
www.geelongadvertiser.com.au www.geelongadvertiser.com.au

"Cr Harwood was Geelong’s mayor during the Cats’ premierships in 2007 and 2009, while Dangerfield isn’t short of high-profile local connections either, boasting former Cats president and businessman Frank Costa as his one-time neighbour."
 
ABAB said:
Connection anyone and didn't she get a job at a company of Costa?

www.geelongadvertiser.com.au

Geelong Advertiser

No Cookies
www.geelongadvertiser.com.au www.geelongadvertiser.com.au

"Cr Harwood was Geelong’s mayor during the Cats’ premierships in 2007 and 2009, while Dangerfield isn’t short of high-profile local connections either, boasting former Cats president and businessman Frank Costa as his one-time neighbour."
Click to expand...

Sweep under rug. Vic team.

Yes I am sure Patty, Joel, Jez etc all took a "pay cut"

Ffs. It's like an onion .. the more u peel, the more it stinks.
 
ABAB said:
Connection, anyone? lol and didn't she get a job at a company of Costa?

www.geelongadvertiser.com.au

Geelong Advertiser

No Cookies
www.geelongadvertiser.com.au www.geelongadvertiser.com.au

"Cr Harwood was Geelong’s mayor during the Cats’ premierships in 2007 and 2009, while Dangerfield isn’t short of high-profile local connections either, boasting former Cats president and businessman Frank Costa as his one-time neighbour."
Click to expand...

How f***ing convenient. Oh. He now has a $6m property. Isn't it amazing??
 
Rotayjay said:
Cats supporters would, of course, respond: 'It'S tHe LiFeStYlE!' iT's GrEaTnEsS!'
Click to expand...
Geelong has historically been deemed an absolute shit hole. It certainly was a place that was a very secondary option as a polluted working class city when I lived in MLB 20 odd years ago. Melbiurnians would openly mock it. Now I understand there has been a sea change which would have provided a positive uplift for the region but it’s still a turd of a city the last time I visited. Out of Ozs biggest 10 cities it ties with The Gong as worst city and place to visit IMO
 
119others said:
Geelong has historically been deemed an absolute s**t hole. It certainly was a place that was a very secondary option as a polluted working class city when I lived in MLB 20 odd years ago. Melbiurnians would openly mock it. Now I understand there has been a sea change which would have provided a positive uplift for the region but it’s still a turd of a city the last time I visited. Out of Ozs biggest 10 cities it ties with The Gong as worst city and place to visit IMO
Click to expand...
Those rankings are bollocks tho. And if u have a $5m mansion its all good wherever u are.
 
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