List Mgmt. Our Trade/FA, Suburban & Country Town Thread

[3rdMan]

I think it'll go in to the pot, but it'll be a 3 way trade. GC won't want to do Lukosius as a stand alone deal. They want him off their books. And a 3 way deal best enables them to all walk away happy.

Agree, but talking just of the pick 13 value. I think the main hold up is being able to satisfy both GC and PA. Seems adding in our second rounder gets us pick 13, but we may also need something for Port. Discussion will be around what goes where.

The talk today has been a bit doubtful on whether the deal will be completed, but I don't think it could be that far away given what the Blues gave for pick 14 and each club wanting something from the other. Just seems like posturing before the deal is finalised next week.

 

[TradeDraft]

Sounds like we are prepared to walk away, because we aren't prepared to sell the farm for one player over the future of the club

I get feeling IF nothing done on Monday we might just pull out and say not worth our time

 

[TradeDraft]

Why do you ask, Pies?

I still think the club is expecting to recruit Houston. It’s that or we go to the draft, dont see us getting anyone else in the trade period right now.

Just found this question interesting.

Leppa Mentioned Tomlinson and Hayes

 

[celestial]

I think you’re inflating the value/importance of Noble to GC. They could quite easily sell 13 to the highest bidder and just offer us 23 for Noble, which we’d likely cave-in and accept because we really don’t want to keep Noble against his will.

IMO of the three Clubs in this triangle, we are in by far the weakest position because we have the least valuable players/picks, with no outside interest from other clubs for what we have on the table. We’re the needy ones most likely yo have to pay more than we’d like to get what we want.

It might all collapse down to us missing out on Houston and walking away with just a pick in the 20’s for Noble and one in the 30’s for Richards. But hopefully not.


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Noble is a grown man, the needs of the club are more important than his state of mind. I am sure he will understand that we weren't able to facilitate a trade because the draft compensation is nowhere near enough.

 

[PonsfordMagpie]

I am a fairly visual person, did not need that mental image. Edmund and ralphy beating it off to a photoshopped image of Houston in a Carlton jumper.

Apologies, but I needed to get it off my chest

 

[frizzle]

I think you’re inflating the value/importance of Noble to GC. They could quite easily sell 13 to the highest bidder and just offer us 23 for Noble, which we’d likely cave-in and accept because we really don’t want to keep Noble against his will.

IMO of the three Clubs in this triangle, we are in by far the weakest position because we have the least valuable players/picks, with no outside interest from other clubs for what we have on the table. We’re the needy ones most likely yo have to pay more than we’d like to get what we want.

It might all collapse down to us missing out on Houston and walking away with just a pick in the 20’s for Noble and one in the 30’s for Richards. But hopefully not.


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Is that you Ned? If we miss out on Houston, Noble has already stated he would be happy to stay if a deal can’t be reached. GC offered him a 4 year deal & he is contracted to our club. We have plenty of bargaining power.

 

[TradeDraft]

Do we have a problem Houston?

At the moment We Do

 

[Bramax]

I think you’re inflating the value/importance of Noble to GC. They could quite easily sell 13 to the highest bidder and just offer us 23 for Noble, which we’d likely cave-in and accept because we really don’t want to keep Noble against his will.

IMO of the three Clubs in this triangle, we are in by far the weakest position because we have the least valuable players/picks, with no outside interest from other clubs for what we have on the table. We’re the needy ones most likely yo have to pay more than we’d like to get what we want.

It might all collapse down to us missing out on Houston and walking away with just a pick in the 20’s for Noble and one in the 30’s for Richards. But hopefully not.


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Noble is happy to stay. He’s said so if a trade cannot be made.

 

[GCPie]

I get the feeling that we will keep Noble and walk away from the Suns.

If that happens then the Blues can get Houston for 12 or 14 only as the Power don't have a 1st round pick to send to the Suns for Jack L.

It looks like the Suns are the ones holding up the deal - F them.

 

[TradeDraft]

This is the particular stage of trade period I start to loathe.

Everything is in a holding pattern so nothing happens in terms of player movement, and journalists are wanking themselves to death with rumours and innuendo.

Trade Period should be a Week at Most

 

[JoinDate]

I see on the trade tracker, Carlton are making a lot of moves to get another pick in ther first round. Are they priming for a Houston trade?

 

[Chameleon75]

That's all fair enough, but how do you factor in GC's desire to get Likocious's salary gone?

we enquired early about luko as a salary dump they declined. I think they’d rather his salary gone but are not desperate.

 

[TradeDraft]

Finally trade period has become interesting

Bloody Weekend now so nothing but Rumors next few days

 

[TradeDraft]

And there we go Josh Jenkins has entered the race for biggest flog of Trade Period.

Outside of Twomey rest of Trade Radio are pretty much Clickbait Trolls

 

[Jen2310]

Noble is a grown man, the needs of the club are more important than his state of mind. I am sure he will understand that we weren't able to facilitate a trade because the draft compensation is nowhere near enough.

And they've told him this could be a possibility

 

[unplugged]

I think we'll definitely get Houston.

The only worry at this stage is getting shafted to a certain extent, and not having any picks left over afterwards.

If that happens, it'll go against what we've been expecting all week. But if you consider the Perryman acquisition without draft picks, it could still be seen as a win.

 

[swoop42]

Yea TBH rather than getting hung up on trying to keep pick 23, I feel like at the end of the trade period, we might need to get comfortable with giving up our pick 36 and not picking until later.

Something like this might be what's needed to unlock the trade if we were the first one to blink:

Coll trades F1, Noble, Pick 36, 52, 55 for GC's Pick 13, 23, 41 - F1+36 equals the going rate for Pick 13, Noble = Pick 23 and 52 and 55 gives more points to GC than 41 whilst we get a pick upgrade.

Coll then trade Pick 13, 23, Richards for Houston and Port's Pick 39 and 58. Essentially values Houston as Pick 13 and 23 with 58 coming back (which Port probably won't use). Values Richards at Pick 39. Port will then have pick 13, 23 and Soldo's pick to take to the draft.

We walk away with Perryman, Houston and picks 39, 41 and 58 (which should come into 50 after bid matching). Ie 3 picks in the top 50 and hope the draft has the depth everyone is talking about to still find a couple of decent young players for the future. But ultimately it doesn't matter because Houston and Perryman would already be a massive success given our limited draft hand.

I feel like you've been studying my work.

Pretty similar to what I posted last weekend.

In this scenario I'd try and get GC accepting Ports pick 39 in the trade. Port then get Richards as payment and we retain our 36. Not a deal breaker though obviously.

If we could use Ports 58 instead our own 55 in the trade with GC that would be another minimal upgrade. Again not a deal breaker.

The reality is you are correct the Carlton deal of a F1 and F2 for 14 has set the market rate for 13 so either we include a 2nd directly or GC accepts multiple 3rds whose points value equate to a 2nd round selection.

The biggest unknown is what the whole Lukosius trade involves and whether one party is trying to get it involved in the deal. It certainly doesn't need to be.

 

[sr36]

Agree, but talking just of the pick 13 value. I think the main hold up is being able to satisfy both GC and PA. Seems adding in our second rounder gets us pick 13, but we may also need something for Port. Discussion will be around what goes where.

The talk today has been a bit doubtful on whether the deal will be completed, but I don't think it could be that far away given what the Blues gave for pick 14 and each club wanting something from the other. Just seems like posturing before the deal is finalised next week.

I think it's basically done.

Looks precarious if you try to split it up into 4 separate deals because each one will be a little bit off and require some balancing, but as a 3 club deal it's not hard to see a win/win/win.

 

[TradeDraft]

 

[domus]

I thought I heard Leppa say early in the week that he was confident about us acquiring Houston. That sounded as if he was over the line, at least in his estimation. I just find it highly unusual for people in his position to voice their opinion on the chances of getting a player so early in the trade period. It can also look very bad if the trade fails to eventuate.

 

[Jasper84]

If we had taken a breath, and valued our picks more highly last year, we may have had Schultz and pick 10 and we wouldn’t be in this situation.

Trade pick 10 for Houston + 23
Then use 13 as a first rounder or split it

If we hadn't taken a breath and instead traded our future first in 2021, then we could have gone after someone like Dunkley. Hindsight is 20/20.

Shultz was being chased by several clubs and was coming to Victoria regardless so he wouldn't have been available this year. Also pick 10 is no longer pick 10.

How's the writing off of Schultz too after one season? Who can say that he's not going to be worthy of the pick we used?

 

[Gymnorhina tibic]

I think we'll definitely get Houston.

The only worry at this stage is getting shafted to a certain extent, and not having any picks left over afterwards.

If that happens, it'll go against what we've been expecting all week. But if you consider the Perryman acquisition without draft picks, it could still be seen as a win.

We began trade period with 36, if we pick up Houston and Perryman and still go to draft with somewhere around 36 we are bandits.

 

[SchuPie]

We should have pushed for 2023 first rounder last year but real alternative was that they kept him. He was contracted. Same as Houston you lose leverage.

That side Port would never send back 23 for pick 10. In fact they would ask for more.

I meant 10+23 for Houston

Last year, Schultz was 12 months from UFA - we had power
Offer 2023 first + 2024 2nd + whatever else they wanted

 

[LuckyLee]

I think it’s a mistake for Leppa to be sharing his thoughts so openly in the media. He’s highlighting our deal-making weak spots and highlighting GC’s position of strength. He should keep his cards closer to his chest rather than showing his hand to everyone.

I’d now put the probability of us landing Houston down to about 20%.


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[celestial]

I think Collingwood definitely want to draft a KPD in the first round this year. All signs point to that being the case.